to PLACE or not to PLACE

[douglasw32]

Okay-

Is there an optimal odds range that place makes more sense than not...

If the horse I like is 9/5 and the one that scares me is 8/5 I don't want to bet place... Just let it ride, because , well you know, look at the payoff...

Place would be less...

However if mine is say 7-1 then even if the fav beats me place pays say 5-6 bucks, worth while to bet WIN/PLACE sorta as insurance...

When is it a right thing to do and when is it a slower road to the poor house...

[Tom Barrister]

In my opinion, the lower the odds, the better the ROI is on place. That's generally because you have fewer low-odds horses to share the place pool with you. The exception to that might be if you have a strong opinion that the heavy favorite won't be sharing the place pool. However, if you believe that, it also gives your win bet much more value.

As an example, if you play a 10-1 shot to place, you'll get a nice place price if another 10-1 shot comes in, but your place price will take a major hit if the 6-5 favorite is the one sharing. There's a lot of fluctuation, and since the 6-5 shot comes in more often, your place price usually takes a big hit. Your price is heavily dependent on what another horse does. Now suppose you play the 6-5 shot to place. You'll still usually get a better price if a 10-1 shot comes in than if the 4-1 second-favorite shares, but the fluctuation won't usually be as great.

[banacek]

In my opinion, the lower the odds, the better the ROI is on place.

That's what I always believed. But with the advent of net pool pricing, that has shifted significantly.

[douglasw32]

Thanks - That helps a lot...

[alysheba88]

One word of advice about betting place: Dont

[garyoz]

If you are betting at home, you might consider using ATRpro. The app calculates the range of place and show prices of each horse and identifies overlay opportunities. IMHO, a great program.

http://www.homebased2.com/atr/at_the_races.htm

[Grits]

There are opportunities that allow place betting to be of tremendous profit. Too, that place bet wheeled underneath; in an exacta with the betting public's 1st and 2nd choice is another profitable opportunity.

The key to making a profit in this manner is unearthing a horse that is being ignored by the wagering public. Such was the case on Saturday.

In Saturday's BC Mile:

Dylan Thomas, "the dead-nuts lock of the day", as my mentor would've called him, took most of the public's money, while English Channel went off as the 2nd betting choice.

In searching your past performances, when you have a horse winning the Grade 1 Secretariat on going rated "good" and the jock that won that particular race retains the mount--you have such an opportunity.

Shamdinan and Julien Leparoux ran 2nd to English Channel at odds of almost 26-1.

The exacta paid $152.00. The place paid $17.60.

I think this was an excellent opportunity for a place wager, and for an exacta wager.

I wouldn't tell you not to consider either one of those.

And if I recall correctly, Andy gave Shamdinan as a possible on Thursday's show.

[46zilzal]

Overall, I probably make more money and get better satisfaction in betting pace casualties to place. These are the one ALL the riders "know" will come back to the field but never do that much.

As much as I loathe Hard Spun, he was a perfect example of this.