Best path

[46zilzal]

In the 88 B.C. at CD, all the riders who discovered the 4 path moved up (Is It True, Alysheba etc.) and those on the rail did not. Calvin Borel should have watched those films as that knowledge COULD have made a difference in the Classic yesterday.

opinions?

[ghostyapper]

Would not have made any difference. The 2 best horses finished 1-2.

[46zilzal]

I wouldn't go that far: on that track, under those pace situations I would agree, but no further. The BEST one won.

[ghostyapper]

I wouldn't go that far: on that track, under those pace situations I would agree, but no further. The BEST one won.

Hard Spun completed the half in under 46 which is suicide for a route race, I don't care if he was alone. 2 closers made runs, 1 was good enough to catch him, the other was not.

[DJofSD]

zz, I tend to agree with yout that a smart jock being able to find a path off the rail would have had a better trip over the slop at MTH. Without going back (just yet) to review the hours of racing on the DVR, I do seem to recall those horses closest to the rail were at a disadvantage.

[ghostyapper]

zz, I tend to agree with yout that a smart jock being able to find a path off the rail would have had a better trip over the slop at MTH. Without going back (just yet) to review the hours of racing on the DVR, I do seem to recall those horses closest to the rail were at a disadvantage.

You mean like War Pass, Indian blessing, and Ginger punch?

[46zilzal]

You mean like War Pass, Indian blessing, and Ginger punch?
Alone on the lead is a different story

[ghostyapper]

Alone on the lead is a different story

You are trying to prove it was a dead rail because obviously the order of finish in the classic was not what you thought or predicted. I gave you 3 winners that were on the rail, 2 with the lead, one fighting for the lead.

Look if you want to continue to incorrectly believe it was a dead rail and thats why your pick failed, no matter how much evidence suggests otherwise, go ahead.

[46zilzal]

I am not retro fitting a thing. I am just observing what was there. Street Sense's last several races had shown a small drop off, compound that by the observation that nothing moved UP on the rail, it added to his demise but I am going to look at all of them again.

[DJofSD]

Cobalt Blue came from dead last to win the Select Stake undercard -- EZ Warrior on the rail while Gomez had his mount rolling down the stretch well off the rail.

[Semipro]

Street Sense didn't lose because of a dead rail he lost because he was intimidated not the first time he'd seen HS 's butt or got passed by Curlin he just threw in the towel he when realized that he couldn't match strides with Curlin. I concur Ginger Punch proved you could pass on the rail in stretch. Best ride of the day looked like she squeezed through a keyhole to me.

[OTM Al]

The track was a soaked, god awful mess from rail to rail, thus making it pretty much fair all the way around. Don't know if you could see it on TV but they really did keep at it after each race. I think the track crew didn't get much sleep for a couple days there. People were cheering them and the gate crew each time they went by. Chucky Lopez got tossed right in front of me before the first race and it looked like he was just going to sink into the mess. There were no thundering hooves, just slurping slopping slaps as they went by. Not ideal in any way but wasn't bad when the sun finally came out.

[peakpros]

the rail was fine...and the track crew did a terrific job all week...

SS was the best 3 YO horse in early may and that's a good time to be the best..

but as the year went on it became clear that others were better....

[JPinMaryland]

I thought the rail hurt those horses in the 6f sprint, Talent Search and the other one that got passed by Midnight Lute. BUt maybe that's just Mid.Lute.

What about War Pass? Was he in the one path or just a little off of it? I cant recall..

[46zilzal]

Again, succinct and plain. NO one moved UP on the rail. UP, not already there, UP.

[Cratos]

In the 88 B.C. at CD, all the riders who discovered the 4 path moved up (Is It True, Alysheba etc.) and those on the rail did not. Calvin Borel should have watched those films as that knowledge COULD have made a difference in the Classic yesterday.

opinions?

Correct me if I wrong, but isn’t the rail where Street Sense does his racing and didn’t the pre-race hype say if Street Sense got the rail it would be to his advantage? However at a 2:00.59 win time by Curlin and Street Sense finishing 4 ¾ behind the second place finisher, Hard Spun and 10 ¼ lengths behind the winner, Curlin in an estimated time of 202.29, you really believe that Street Sense moving away from the rail would have change anything?

[ghostyapper]

Correct me if I wrong, but isn’t the rail where Street Sense does his racing and didn’t the pre-race hype say if Street Sense got the rail it would be to his advantage? However at a 2:00.59 win time by Curlin and Street Sense finishing 4 ¾ behind the second place finisher, Hard Spun and 10 ¼ lengths behind the winner, Curlin in an estimated time of 202.29, you really believe that Street Sense moving away from the rail would have change anything?

Everything you said is correct, however if there was a rail bias, SS would be at a disadvantage. However there was no rail bias on BC day. Had street sense moved away from the rail would that have changed anything? Yes he would have lost by 12 lengths instead of 10 1/4.

You need to understand what a loyal group the Street "Senseless" fans are. From calling him the best 3yo by far, to saying he shows up at all the big ones, to blaming his defeat to hard spun in the kc classic on a 2 wide trip, to still saying he deserves consideration for HOY after he gets smoked by 2 better horses, its no surprise they'd come up with an excuse as to why he didn't perform up to there lofty expectations for him.

[OTM Al]

ghosty is actually right about this path thing. It wasn't going to matter at all where he was that day, he wasn't going to win, but then ghosty is a Street Sense hater too. Its clear Curlin has caught up to him and is currently better. I think more times than not he would beat Hard Spun on a dry dirt track at 1 1/4 miles. So maybe he still is number 2 which is still pretty good in such a strong group. None of it really matters though as we probably won't see any of them again, though I guess because of the legal issues of all things Curlin may still be possible. Still think Invasor would have smoked the lot of them though.

[ghostyapper]

ghosty is actually right about this path thing. It wasn't going to matter at all where he was that day, he wasn't going to win, but then ghosty is a Street Sense hater too. Its clear Curlin has caught up to him and is currently better. I think more times than not he would beat Hard Spun on a dry dirt track at 1 1/4 miles. So maybe he still is number 2 which is still pretty good in such a strong group. None of it really matters though as we probably won't see any of them again, though I guess because of the legal issues of all things Curlin may still be possible. Still think Invasor would have smoked the lot of them though.

Not a street sense hater, just a hater of the idea, that was rampant around here over the summer, that he was on a level of his own. Its obvious Curlin has proved to be the better horse and I believe Hard Spun is a better horse, even at 10 Furlongs.

Curlin vs Invasor. What a matchup that would be but I'd give the edge to Curlin

[46zilzal]

The RAIL, on MOST race tracks would have helped SS, but then the point of this entire thread is that, and I am going to repeat it yet again, JUST LIKE 88 at Churchill, NOTHING MOVED UP all day on the rail: overtook the pace, closed, made up ground, challenged, came along from the back etc......How many ways must one state it before it is understood?

I dislike Hard Spun, but the reality is that he matured along the same lines as Chief's Crown at three: unable to get 10 furlongs earlier in his three year old season, he gained experience at apportioning speed with maturity. ALSO, the pace makeup Saturday, with only a single rival capable of setting any early pace presser (unlike Baltimore) made his positional ability easier.

[46zilzal]

Curlin in an estimated time of 202.29, you really believe that Street Sense moving away from the rail would have change anything?
Possibly yes, since, and I will repeat it yet again, NOTHING MOVED UP ON THE RAIL ALL DAY.

[ghostyapper]

Possibly yes, since, and I will repeat it yet again, NOTHING MOVED UP ON THE RAIL ALL DAY.

That means nothing. If it were a dead rail, like you are claiming, jockey's would be avoiding it and you wouldn't have 3 front runners hang on for victories. The reality is the majority of closers do not make their moves on the rail anyway so you proclaiming "NOTHING MOVED UP ALL DAY" doesn't mean anything. But feel free to continue shouting nonsense.

[Semipro]

Not a street sense hater, just a hater of the idea, that was rampant around here over the summer, that he was on a level of his own. Its obvious Curlin has proved to be the better horse and I believe Hard Spun is a better horse, even at 10 Furlongs.

Curlin vs Invasor. What a matchup that would be but I'd give the edge to Curlin
I love Curlin but don't think he as good as Invasor was or as good as Ghostzapper or Tiznow but if they WOULD run him at 4 he would be better than any of the afore mentioned.

[rastajenk]

I think a Curlin vs Bernardini hyptothetical is better than an Invasor one. Bernardini would be out there on the front with his high cruising speed, putting away pretenders like Hard Spun, and Curlin would have to hook him early or try to run him down late. I could be persuaded to buy into any of those potential outcomes.

[Cratos]

Not a street sense hater, just a hater of the idea, that was rampant around here over the summer, that he was on a level of his own. Its obvious Curlin has proved to be the better horse and I believe Hard Spun is a better horse, even at 10 Furlongs.

Curlin vs Invasor. What a matchup that would be but I'd give the edge to Curlin

Over the years I have seen some very good duels (Affirmed-Alydar. Damascus-Dr, Fager, and Forego-Wajima) and I believe Invasor-Curlin with Hard Spun setting a lively pace on a fast dry track would have been one for the ages. Who wins I don’t know, but they would have stopped the timer in 1:59 and change.

[njcurveball]

The RAIL, on MOST race tracks would have helped SS, but then the point of this entire thread is that, and I am going to repeat it yet again, JUST LIKE 88 at Churchill, NOTHING MOVED UP all day on the rail: overtook the pace, closed, made up ground, challenged, came along from the back etc......How many ways must one state it before it is understood?




What country did this happen? I hate to confuse you with facts, but in the United States, there was a horse named Ginger Punch. Perhaps you believe your computer printouts which probably had her in the 25 path. But in my country, the United States, she was not only on the rail, but battled back and won.

Here is another 2 words for you Acting Good in the first! Stretching out no less! Race Comments: bumped start, set pace inside, responded, battled back gamely.

Not counting the 2 year old races, of course!


I had hopes that you actually watched the races you talk about. Obviously the last race you saw was a match race from 1930! :bang:

[ghostyapper]

What country did this happen? I hate to confuse you with facts, but in the United States, there was a horse named Ginger Punch. Perhaps you believe your computer printouts which probably had her in the 25 path. But in my country, the United States, she was not only on the rail, but battled back and won.



No don't you get it? Ginger punch doesn't count because she didn't make a closing move from 10 lengths back on the rail to win. Since no other horse did that either all day, that obviously means the rail was dead and street sense would have won the classic. I mean we see horses make big closing moves on the rail all the time right? :D

[JPinMaryland]

NJ's pt about Ginger PUnch and race 1 are counter examples to 46's theory.

Also, from the charts, Benny the BUll made up a bit of ground in the sprint going from about 9th to 6th along the rail from at least the turn to the wire. And Backseat Rhythmn went from 8th to 3rd making up ground along the rail in the juv. filly.

Octave made up some ground on the turn near the rail then angled out.

Part of the problem, well part of the reason you might not find too many data pts. is that a lot of horses may have wrapped up early in any event as the slop does tend to stretch out the margins. But still there are a few data pts to counter the hypothesis. Not a bad idea as a few observers pt'd out there seemed to be an outside bias in the days preceeding this event.