jonnielu
10-28-2007, 12:45 PM
It looks like a fine day for some horse races, I've moved my gear to Churchill to get down in some actual dirt.
The lineup is in the order of ability. As always, you may filter according to your own perspective. I recommend adding hard physical info.
1st - 7, 1, 4 (5, 9) - Always a bummer when the chalk makes sense, the entry is right there on ability too. #4 is a ray of sunshine here, 8.5f might be just the right distance for this horse. #5 and #9 can wade in if anybody gets too ambitious early.
2nd - 4, 1, 6 (7, 5) (2)- Looks like a simple deal here, but #6 has a speed advantage. Could wire if #4 and #1 don't get in on the early giddyup. They can run down a length or too, but they can't dilly-dally. Any dilly-dallying could cause a nosing by #7, #5.
Don't toss #2 out of any exotics, this horse is much better then 20 - 1 here and if anybody else screws up anything here, he can screw up your exotic.
3rd - 1, 4, 2, 9 (8) - #1 and #4 have an early speed advantage, #2 figures to be right behind them, and #9 for the late move. #8 is the threat for improvement, can get in the mix by knocking some off of their game.
4th - 3, 6, 7 (4) - No big reason to suspect that #3 can't do it on the lawn. But, if there is one, #6 and #7 can step right in with fine, even, turfstyle efforts. If #4 can see daylight at the head of the stretch, will take motivation.
5th - 7, 3, 6 Speed alert - #7 and those who will be chasing don't figure to catch up. Maybe a good time to key.
6th - 11, 9, 7, 2, 12, 6 - No parentheses, lots of questions on this crowd, not many answers in the PP's. I'll see if there is a hot dog vendor down by the paddock.
7th - 5, 7, 10 (6, 2, 3, 9) - Speed alert, if #5 doesn't burn much for a lead, she'll hold up well. If #7 and #10 can stay close without burning too much, they are right there. If they all burn too much, the four horse calvary charge starts mid - stretch. You can go for that #7 in the 7th deal, but it is no more then a shot.
8th - 10, 3, 13 - (4,11,6) - Mostly a replay of the Jessemine. I expect the unexpected from #3 and #13, if they were to disappoint 4, 11, 6 should wade right in.
9th - 7, 1, 6 (4,5) - These three should handle the increased distance well enough.
10th - 8, 1, 11 (14,5) - Speed alert - I know that I'm not supposed to get sucked in by speed at 8f, but, #8 has it to spare and I don't think she'll have to burn for the lead here. #1 and #11 can do a stretch run down if she does, but I'm not expecting it. Love to do a paddock check here, I don't mind a layoff under 60 days with work showing, but you can't beat a paddock check for answering physical readiness questions.
If anyone in front goes backwards, #14 and #5 go forward.
11th - 11, 9, 10 finally the scratches help out. You've got too many first'rs for exotics here. Key, if you must.
The lineup is in the order of ability. As always, you may filter according to your own perspective. I recommend adding hard physical info.
1st - 7, 1, 4 (5, 9) - Always a bummer when the chalk makes sense, the entry is right there on ability too. #4 is a ray of sunshine here, 8.5f might be just the right distance for this horse. #5 and #9 can wade in if anybody gets too ambitious early.
2nd - 4, 1, 6 (7, 5) (2)- Looks like a simple deal here, but #6 has a speed advantage. Could wire if #4 and #1 don't get in on the early giddyup. They can run down a length or too, but they can't dilly-dally. Any dilly-dallying could cause a nosing by #7, #5.
Don't toss #2 out of any exotics, this horse is much better then 20 - 1 here and if anybody else screws up anything here, he can screw up your exotic.
3rd - 1, 4, 2, 9 (8) - #1 and #4 have an early speed advantage, #2 figures to be right behind them, and #9 for the late move. #8 is the threat for improvement, can get in the mix by knocking some off of their game.
4th - 3, 6, 7 (4) - No big reason to suspect that #3 can't do it on the lawn. But, if there is one, #6 and #7 can step right in with fine, even, turfstyle efforts. If #4 can see daylight at the head of the stretch, will take motivation.
5th - 7, 3, 6 Speed alert - #7 and those who will be chasing don't figure to catch up. Maybe a good time to key.
6th - 11, 9, 7, 2, 12, 6 - No parentheses, lots of questions on this crowd, not many answers in the PP's. I'll see if there is a hot dog vendor down by the paddock.
7th - 5, 7, 10 (6, 2, 3, 9) - Speed alert, if #5 doesn't burn much for a lead, she'll hold up well. If #7 and #10 can stay close without burning too much, they are right there. If they all burn too much, the four horse calvary charge starts mid - stretch. You can go for that #7 in the 7th deal, but it is no more then a shot.
8th - 10, 3, 13 - (4,11,6) - Mostly a replay of the Jessemine. I expect the unexpected from #3 and #13, if they were to disappoint 4, 11, 6 should wade right in.
9th - 7, 1, 6 (4,5) - These three should handle the increased distance well enough.
10th - 8, 1, 11 (14,5) - Speed alert - I know that I'm not supposed to get sucked in by speed at 8f, but, #8 has it to spare and I don't think she'll have to burn for the lead here. #1 and #11 can do a stretch run down if she does, but I'm not expecting it. Love to do a paddock check here, I don't mind a layoff under 60 days with work showing, but you can't beat a paddock check for answering physical readiness questions.
If anyone in front goes backwards, #14 and #5 go forward.
11th - 11, 9, 10 finally the scratches help out. You've got too many first'rs for exotics here. Key, if you must.