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Niko
10-27-2007, 09:06 PM
I was really worried with all the rain, but I for one was impressed with what the track maintenance crew did. I hope they get the credit they deserve. Front runners and closers both had a good chance if they liked the track.

If only the CD crew was as good last year.

boomman
10-27-2007, 11:45 PM
I was really worried with all the rain, but I for one was impressed with what the track maintenance crew did. I hope they get the credit they deserve. Front runners and closers both had a good chance if they liked the track.

If only the CD crew was as good last year.

Niko: We have certainly seen both sides of the track maintenance issue in the last 2 Breeder's Cups haven't we? Butch Lehr of Churchill Downs should have immediately been fired after that ridiculous inside bias (done on purpose by him and his crew according to my sources that watched it being done last year despite near perfect weather) and now this Breeder's Cup comes along and I know we're all thinking: How in the world can they possibly make the track fair after 4 days of solid rain? Well, they did it!:ThmbUp: The track maintenance crew at Monmouth Park should get an award for the job they did, and I for one will happily stand up and give them the credit they deserve for a job well done!

:) Boomer

jma
10-27-2007, 11:51 PM
The track was a bog, but it was a fair bog. Considering the weather we got here, you can't ask for much more than that.

joeyreb
10-28-2007, 12:15 AM
Fair??:lol:

4 of 5 first races were gate to wire finishes... I sure most of connections for horses in both Junv. Races wouldn't agree with you.

It wasn't until the sealed track was broken up enough in Sprint for any horse not on the lead had a chance

Semipro
10-28-2007, 12:49 AM
I was amazed that the track played as it did speed won when it should have closers won when they should have I bet just like I handicap for a fast track. Well for dirt anyway. My best breeders cup ever if only I could resist betting turf could have been one of the best days ever. Cuddos to the trackmen.:ThmbUp:

ryesteve
10-28-2007, 09:20 AM
I sure most of connections for horses in both Junv. Races wouldn't agree
Then they'd sound like whining sore losers for complaining about "track bias" after both races were won by the overwhelming favorites.

melman
10-28-2007, 11:26 AM
How about another point of view? This from Craig Donnelly in today's Phila Inquirer. "The wide winning margins of 3 1/2 4 3/4 4/3/4 7 and 4 1/2 respectively, underscored the role that poor racing conditions played. Though it was no fault of Monmounth's an asterisk should be placed next to the results----a warning not to take the outcomes too seriously.

cj
10-28-2007, 11:37 AM
What results were such a surprise?

Classhandicapper often posts that winning margins shouldn't be considered as seriously on off tracks as on fast tracks. It is almost the opposite of turf racing, where the horses are usually much closer at the finish than on dirt.

I think he has a great point. A horse beaten 4 lengths in slop is more like 2 on a fast track. A horse beaten 10 is closer to 5.

alysheba88
10-28-2007, 11:43 AM
Results over two days were both predictable and fair. Something for everyone. Few chalks and some real nice prices.

Of course weather is good today.

melman
10-28-2007, 11:53 AM
I offered it up as "another point of view" maybe cj you would like to discuss it with him. It's cdonnelly@phillynews.com. Craig's a good racing man been doing it for a LONG time and after all his first name is the same. :jump:

cj
10-28-2007, 11:56 AM
I wasn't really disagreeing with him. I was just putting the spin on it that the beaten lengths should be taken with a grain of salt, not necessarily the winners.

Semipro
10-28-2007, 12:14 PM
How about another point of view? This from Craig Donnelly in today's Phila Inquirer. "The wide winning margins of 3 1/2 4 3/4 4/3/4 7 and 4 1/2 respectively, underscored the role that poor racing conditions played. Though it was no fault of Monmounth's an asterisk should be placed next to the results----a warning not to take the outcomes too seriously. Logical food for thought but I'm inclined to agree that wins were exaggerated but the best horse won those races.

Niko
10-28-2007, 06:01 PM
Because some horses take to off tracks and some don't margins can be exaggerated. Let's see any off track in the US that has blanket finishes

As far as being speed favored.

Race 1: crawling pace
Race 2: Look at a couple of Coco's past races, fast horse--and the horse was in post 11 and didn't have the lead at the quarter pole=early presser
Race 3; Sustained winner--big close
Race 4; Favorite that took advantage of slop, probably would've done the same on any track. Look at the huge advantage in the horse early pace ratings compared to the rest of the field
Race 5; Damn those were some fast fractions, see race 4
Race 7; Deep closer and another favorite won
Race 9; Early presser
Race 10; Presser and the best horse won in a contentious field, look at how the main contenders were traveling on the course

Front runners, pressers, closers, inside posts, outside posts (I will say the the number 1 post had no shot and I used it to bet against some horses). Other than that extremely fair GIVEN the racing conditions. It could've gone so bad but I thought it went great

racefinder2
10-30-2007, 11:07 PM
This track did play pretty straight forward other than the obvious wetness that created a heavy spray of slop and mud that closers couldnt/wouldnt run against successfully. You could see that the horses were avoiding it, naturally. I cant remember, did Ginger Punch have a pocket trip behind horses in the slop or was she out there in front-if it was the former, that makes her win even more impressive. I know she won the duel in the drive...down on the inside. Ill have to watch the replay again.

Great insights, that the beaten lengths on a track like this, are usually equal to smaller on a fast(or should I say unbiased)track. The margins of victory become 'unnatural'. This is exactly my theory in this as well. And this affects the Beyers too, in a sort of 'prejudiced' way, because other than the winner, theyre determined by beaten lengths. It also seems as though a speed horse w a clear lead is far more able to open up/sustain a wide margin than in a contested pace. Im curious, would this affect pace ratings or figures?

Remember that horse Steinbrenner had in the Wood at AQ that day--I cant remember his name, but he won it by 15 lengths or so, had about a 122 Beyer and was bet down heavy in the Derby. Thats a perfect example. NY bred maidens were going in 110 and change and that was enough for me. On a biased track, rather than slop, but the beaten lengths reality was exactly the same. I really dont do a lot of figure making but that one day was blatantly biased. The point is that biased tracks create similar large margins.

Now, let the fans decide whether the BC results should get an asterisk*
:)

46zilzal
10-30-2007, 11:12 PM
Remember that horse Steinbrenner had in the Wood at AQ that day--I cant remember his name, but he won it by 15 lengths or so, had about a 122 Beyer and was bet down heavy in the Derby. Thats a perfect example. NY bred maidens were going in 110 and change and that was enough for me. On a biased track, rather than slop, but the beaten lengths reality was exactly the same. I really dont do a lot of figure making but that one day was blatantly biased. The point is that biased tracks create similar large margins.

That one had the benefit of one of the earliest speed biases that Aqueduct ever produced over the last several years. Churchill Downs would have, and did not support the same energy distribution

46zilzal
10-30-2007, 11:16 PM
Race 10; Presser and the best horse won in a contentious field, look at how the main contenders were traveling on the course


Curlin a presser?? The ONLY time he ran close to being a presser he ran third. Horses very rarely win at 10 furlongs as pressers. The only other subpar race for this one was when he ran earlier than usual in the Derby: Sustained/presser.

BOTH thirds represent earlier than the norm energy distributions.

Zaf
10-30-2007, 11:18 PM
I believe the track maintenance crew did the best they could. My buddy & I were right beside it for two days. The words chocolate pudding was the only way to describe it. The track workers did a bang on job.

Z

advancedcapper
10-31-2007, 11:36 AM
Of course there was a bias. There always has and always will be at Monmouth. Being on the lead was the way to go. Sure, In the sprint the best horse closed and won, but he TOWERED over the field. The two that lead most of the way were 2-3 and Benny ran fourth as the other leading beyer horse. All in all, I think the track favored speed more than closers. Most 1-2-3 horses were around at the finish at a percentage way higher than the closers. Even Hard Spun ran a big race. Lawyer Ron obviously didn't take to the track as did Street Sense, who showed below that he disliked slop in an earlier race and was a confirmed closer.

In a giant water-soaked field, the rail is usually the worst place to be, but that is a given on most any track in the country, ignoring that poly stuff. Coco Belle could have been the lock of the century, coming off poly and synthetic and running back on a speed favoring dirt course as the easy pace factor. Was 9-1 about 2 minutes to post and $13 after the race.

onefast99
10-31-2007, 04:19 PM
The Monmouth park crew did a great job, this is in light of the terrible job done by a few of the past crew members prior to the haskell. The track played to both closers and pressers and front runners but as stated earlier the speed was good in the first few races because the track was sealed. Once the moisture seeped in the closers began to take over. Curlin was the best example of that. Octave got a late start or she would of been right there to win the distaff.

46zilzal
10-31-2007, 04:21 PM
Energy wise it was fair all along. Speed won when it was dominant, the back won when it was dominant. That is what a balanced track does.

Niko
10-31-2007, 04:27 PM
Curlin a presser?? The ONLY time he ran close to being a presser he ran third. Horses very rarely win at 10 furlongs as pressers. The only other subpar race for this one was when he ran earlier than usual in the Derby: Sustained/presser.

BOTH thirds represent earlier than the norm energy distributions.


In the Breeders Cup he ran with a pressing style. I think 5th, 6+ lengths back at the 3/4 pole would represent a pressing as opposed to early pressing style?

His typically style may be different but good horses can usually run 2 styles; E or E/P E/P or P.

Niko
10-31-2007, 04:31 PM
Maybe it's semantics, point is he wasn't an early presser in the race and thus an off the pace runner won.

Show me a completely fair track after 3-4 days of rain with close finishes, I don't believe they exist??

I still think they did a great job of getting the track in the best condition possible and making it fair to all running styles of horses....all off tracks are different and some will take to it better than others..nothing track maintenance can do about that.

46zilzal
10-31-2007, 04:34 PM
POSITION is not energy distribution for the umpteenth time. Only times Curlin was a presser he ran third.

advancedcapper
10-31-2007, 04:42 PM
I'm glad she did. I loaded up on the 12-4 in that race. As my fatjer always taught me about Octave's type. Always coming, never gets there! Overall, speed was the winning ticket. More speed held up than closers finished. It seemed as though only one closer hit the top three, as the two speed held.

ac

NYPlayer
10-31-2007, 07:26 PM
The track was a bog, but it was a fair bog. Considering the weather we got here, you can't ask for much more than that.


It boggles my mind...

advancedcapper
11-01-2007, 07:51 AM
People go every day and see the same thing time and time again and REFUSE to take advantage of it because when it happens, it beats the 1-1 shot and thier narrow minds CAN"T see the light. Excellent comment. It boggles my mind too. Check back...........speed was the way to go in most races. It held WAY better than the closers closed.

ac