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10-27-2007, 10:19 AM
From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla:
I passed the 10th at Monmouth, the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile Stakes, didn�t get the price I wanted, and just as well, as I didn�t love Corinthina. Once again the Fulcrum finishes second.
I guess I have to talk about the 8th race, don�t I? The Filly and Mare Sprint Stakes.
All I did was bet a horse that had the lead briefly in the stretch and missed by about a half length AT 43-1.
That�s the part about what might have been.
Did I back it up to place? No. It paid $37.40 to place, and I don�t really have that much regret about that.
Did I have the $374 exacta? Yes, but more as a kind of �place� bet. I used the 2 and 8 strongly with the 1, less strongly with the 5, and took small exactas with a few others, including the 4.
The 4 that HAD shown some closes, that I knew had some short closes, wrote about its short closes. Could have used it more strongly, should have had the trifecta.
Boy, do I sound like a typical horseplayer or what?
It�s why I love this game so much. I have to tell you that my heart did beat very quickly when Miraculous Miss was coming up the inside, and it looked for a fleeting second that I might be home at 43-1. (The 8, my other key, got into some serious trouble and then just gave up the ghost.)
Two bets, two cashes, and I sit here shaking my head a bit about my structuring of bets in the Fill and Mare Sprint.
Breeders� Cup Juvenile Fillies (4th Race Monmouth)
I �soft focused� this race, and the first thing that struck me was that there was a filly that I didn�t want to bet, but I really didn�t want to bet against. The 4, Indian Blessing, just toyed with the two fields she faced. She won her maiden at Saratoga in a romp, and was under wraps to win the Frizette.
On top of that, if that 1:10 and 2 that she ran in the Frizette (almost 6 lengths on the lead) is legitimate, she may have control of the pace.
Having said that, there are a bunch of unknowns in the race: Fillies on the dirt for the first time, two turns for the first time, off track for the first time.
So, I�m faced with a bunch of talented fillies and a bunch of questions. Most likely to win? Indian Blessing. An obvious selection, with another obvious selection, 10 Proud Spell (3 for 3, winning the 7 furlong Matron very easily) probably a factor. There are a couple of horses with nice patterns, the 3, Tasha�s Miracle, and the 5, Irish Smoke. A filly that interests me, although I can�t tell you exactly why is the 30-1 morning line 1, Phantom Income. Her energy distribution in her last win, a short close in a fast sprint at the Meadowlands would work well at a mile and a sixteenth, but she was nowhere in graded company.
Bottom line, obvious selections, and too many questions for me to make a major bet.
Breeders� Cup Juvenile (5th Race Monmouth)
I could virtually repeat my comments about the Juvenile Fillies here, just replacing Indian Blessing with the 2, War Pass. 3 for 3, one on an off track, obvious favorite, won�t bet it, cautious about betting against it.
Having said that, there�s a horse that was getting to War�s Pass in the Champagne, the 7 Pyro. Pyro comes from off the pace, and if enough of the early pressers mix it up in the goo, the 7 could be sitting pretty. Also, it is the Reversal Horse to War Pass, and 3rd start after a layoff. I would need to get around 9-1 to bet him seriously, but it�s a possibility. Again, way too many unknowns for this bet to be �making me.�
Breeders� Cup Filly And Mare Turf (6th Race Monmouth)
Tremendous. A mile and three eighths on a soggy turf course. 4 of the entrants have never run in the U.S., and have no internals for their races.
On top of that, a ton of horses magnificently bred for the Turf. The top PPF is the 5, Wait A While, and the 12, Precious Kitten is both the Fulcrum and a Reversal Winner (to the 10, Arravale, the Reversal Horse.) For that matter, the 5 is a Reversal Horse to the 6, and the 5 is also 3rd off a layoff.
Again, way too many questions for a serious bet, but I may take some action exactas and trifectas using the 5, 10, 12, and letting it go at that.
Breeders� Cup Sprint (7th Race Monmouth)
Every year, it�s like d�j� vu all over again.
This year�s sprint is packed with early speed, and there should be plenty of pressure. A heavily pressured 6 furlong race. And just like earlier today in the fillies and mare sprint, the closers are the 2 and the 8.
I�m getting ahead of myself. I came to that insight from a bit of soft focus on the race. Let�s take it step by step.
The 4, Talent Search, 6 Commentator, 7, Idiot Proof, and the 9 Bordonaro are confirmed early horses. The 7 and the 9 have put down very impressive early fractions, both having broken 22 and 44 in the first two calls. That�s race horse time. Trouble is, they were on the lead, several horses want the lead, and that�s a recipe for pressure and a closing horse.
Any other pressure? Well, the 1 looks like an early presser. The 5, Kelly�s Landing, 10, Greg�s Gold, and 11 Forefathers, who was scratched today to run in this race, have both pressed and made short closes.
Which leaves us with the closers, the 2, Midnight Lute, and the 8 Benny The Bull, who ran against each other in the Forego last time. Midnight Lute, the 2-1 morning line favorite was the Reversal Winner, with the 8, Benny The Bull the Reversal Horse, and 6-1 morning line. Benny has closed against a 44 pace from 7 lengths back, and won going away.
Dedicated closer in a Heavy Pressure sprint, a Reverser, and a horse that�s closed against really fast paces. I have my key horse in the Sprint. I�ll take this horse down to 5-1, but hope they go crazy over the California invaders and I�ll get closer to 10-1.
I�ll use the short closers this time. The 6, Commentator, needs the lead, but is also 3 for 3 on an off track. Might be worth an exacta.
8-2 box and straight, and the 8 keyed to the short closers are in my future. May get a bit creative with the trifectas, putting the Fulcrum, the 9 in the middle.
This is a solid bet, and even without seeing the board, feel that the bet will be making me.
Breeders� Cup Mile (8th Race Monmouth)
Another on the soggy turf. The morning line favorite is the 13, Excellent Art, who�s never run in the U.S., and the third morning line choice is the 5, Jeremy, also making his U.S. debut.
So, two big unknowns. In a mile on the turf, I�ll look at the pace, and I believe the 14, Remarkable News as the Fulcrum. There looks to be a bit of pressure in the race coming from the 7, 10, and 11.
This is a highly speculative race, but I do note that my top three PPF ratings, the 6, 3, and 2 ran against each other in the Kelso with the 6 the Reversal Winner and the 2 and the 3 Reversal Horses. I�ll use them in a box with the Fulcrum (yes, I�ll even use the 2, Icy Atlantic, who�s 30-1 morning line and likes to finish 2nd.)
There�s another closer in the race with an incredible final fraction in its last race. How incredible? 22 flat in the Woodbine Mile on the turf. That�s the 4, Host.
So, I know I�m in the deep end of the pool, but this is a chance to take very small bets and make a nice score. As usual, the board will dictate my exact structure.
Breeders� Cup Distaff (9th Race Monmouth)
I looked at this race for quite a while, and it was one of those races where the PBS horses were different from the PPF horses. There looks as if there could be some pressure in the race, but no confirmed closers.
I have absolutely no �feel� for this race. I notice that the Fulcrum horse, the 8, Octave is the Reversal Winner to the 6, Bear Now. I will take very small exotics with those horses, perhaps giving a dash of some really long prices, the 1 and 9, who don�t look bad at all.
An action bet, very small, but a chance to do nicely from a small investment.
Breeders� Cup Turf (10th Race Monmouth)
Another pass. The three heavy morning line favorites, the 7, 6, and 2, are horses on which I can�t make numbers. Although I won�t be betting this race, I would love to be there, because if the 7 runs another great race, I would be urging him on by yelling, �Rage, rage against the dying of the light!�
Breeders� Cup Classic (11th Race Monmouth)
Ah yes, the main attraction. I stopped looking seriously when I realized that the top three PPFs (and PBS for that matter) were Lawyer Ron, Curlin, and Any Given Saturday. All chalk. Hard Spun may have a chance to take them wire to wire, but I don�t see any strong dynamic in the race, and I�ll be watching as a fan, not an investor.
So there you have it, a typical Breeders� Cup for me. Probably one strong bet on a closer in the Sprint, some creative small bets to try to take down a big score in some other races, and passes in some of the features.
I passed the 10th at Monmouth, the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile Stakes, didn�t get the price I wanted, and just as well, as I didn�t love Corinthina. Once again the Fulcrum finishes second.
I guess I have to talk about the 8th race, don�t I? The Filly and Mare Sprint Stakes.
All I did was bet a horse that had the lead briefly in the stretch and missed by about a half length AT 43-1.
That�s the part about what might have been.
Did I back it up to place? No. It paid $37.40 to place, and I don�t really have that much regret about that.
Did I have the $374 exacta? Yes, but more as a kind of �place� bet. I used the 2 and 8 strongly with the 1, less strongly with the 5, and took small exactas with a few others, including the 4.
The 4 that HAD shown some closes, that I knew had some short closes, wrote about its short closes. Could have used it more strongly, should have had the trifecta.
Boy, do I sound like a typical horseplayer or what?
It�s why I love this game so much. I have to tell you that my heart did beat very quickly when Miraculous Miss was coming up the inside, and it looked for a fleeting second that I might be home at 43-1. (The 8, my other key, got into some serious trouble and then just gave up the ghost.)
Two bets, two cashes, and I sit here shaking my head a bit about my structuring of bets in the Fill and Mare Sprint.
Breeders� Cup Juvenile Fillies (4th Race Monmouth)
I �soft focused� this race, and the first thing that struck me was that there was a filly that I didn�t want to bet, but I really didn�t want to bet against. The 4, Indian Blessing, just toyed with the two fields she faced. She won her maiden at Saratoga in a romp, and was under wraps to win the Frizette.
On top of that, if that 1:10 and 2 that she ran in the Frizette (almost 6 lengths on the lead) is legitimate, she may have control of the pace.
Having said that, there are a bunch of unknowns in the race: Fillies on the dirt for the first time, two turns for the first time, off track for the first time.
So, I�m faced with a bunch of talented fillies and a bunch of questions. Most likely to win? Indian Blessing. An obvious selection, with another obvious selection, 10 Proud Spell (3 for 3, winning the 7 furlong Matron very easily) probably a factor. There are a couple of horses with nice patterns, the 3, Tasha�s Miracle, and the 5, Irish Smoke. A filly that interests me, although I can�t tell you exactly why is the 30-1 morning line 1, Phantom Income. Her energy distribution in her last win, a short close in a fast sprint at the Meadowlands would work well at a mile and a sixteenth, but she was nowhere in graded company.
Bottom line, obvious selections, and too many questions for me to make a major bet.
Breeders� Cup Juvenile (5th Race Monmouth)
I could virtually repeat my comments about the Juvenile Fillies here, just replacing Indian Blessing with the 2, War Pass. 3 for 3, one on an off track, obvious favorite, won�t bet it, cautious about betting against it.
Having said that, there�s a horse that was getting to War�s Pass in the Champagne, the 7 Pyro. Pyro comes from off the pace, and if enough of the early pressers mix it up in the goo, the 7 could be sitting pretty. Also, it is the Reversal Horse to War Pass, and 3rd start after a layoff. I would need to get around 9-1 to bet him seriously, but it�s a possibility. Again, way too many unknowns for this bet to be �making me.�
Breeders� Cup Filly And Mare Turf (6th Race Monmouth)
Tremendous. A mile and three eighths on a soggy turf course. 4 of the entrants have never run in the U.S., and have no internals for their races.
On top of that, a ton of horses magnificently bred for the Turf. The top PPF is the 5, Wait A While, and the 12, Precious Kitten is both the Fulcrum and a Reversal Winner (to the 10, Arravale, the Reversal Horse.) For that matter, the 5 is a Reversal Horse to the 6, and the 5 is also 3rd off a layoff.
Again, way too many questions for a serious bet, but I may take some action exactas and trifectas using the 5, 10, 12, and letting it go at that.
Breeders� Cup Sprint (7th Race Monmouth)
Every year, it�s like d�j� vu all over again.
This year�s sprint is packed with early speed, and there should be plenty of pressure. A heavily pressured 6 furlong race. And just like earlier today in the fillies and mare sprint, the closers are the 2 and the 8.
I�m getting ahead of myself. I came to that insight from a bit of soft focus on the race. Let�s take it step by step.
The 4, Talent Search, 6 Commentator, 7, Idiot Proof, and the 9 Bordonaro are confirmed early horses. The 7 and the 9 have put down very impressive early fractions, both having broken 22 and 44 in the first two calls. That�s race horse time. Trouble is, they were on the lead, several horses want the lead, and that�s a recipe for pressure and a closing horse.
Any other pressure? Well, the 1 looks like an early presser. The 5, Kelly�s Landing, 10, Greg�s Gold, and 11 Forefathers, who was scratched today to run in this race, have both pressed and made short closes.
Which leaves us with the closers, the 2, Midnight Lute, and the 8 Benny The Bull, who ran against each other in the Forego last time. Midnight Lute, the 2-1 morning line favorite was the Reversal Winner, with the 8, Benny The Bull the Reversal Horse, and 6-1 morning line. Benny has closed against a 44 pace from 7 lengths back, and won going away.
Dedicated closer in a Heavy Pressure sprint, a Reverser, and a horse that�s closed against really fast paces. I have my key horse in the Sprint. I�ll take this horse down to 5-1, but hope they go crazy over the California invaders and I�ll get closer to 10-1.
I�ll use the short closers this time. The 6, Commentator, needs the lead, but is also 3 for 3 on an off track. Might be worth an exacta.
8-2 box and straight, and the 8 keyed to the short closers are in my future. May get a bit creative with the trifectas, putting the Fulcrum, the 9 in the middle.
This is a solid bet, and even without seeing the board, feel that the bet will be making me.
Breeders� Cup Mile (8th Race Monmouth)
Another on the soggy turf. The morning line favorite is the 13, Excellent Art, who�s never run in the U.S., and the third morning line choice is the 5, Jeremy, also making his U.S. debut.
So, two big unknowns. In a mile on the turf, I�ll look at the pace, and I believe the 14, Remarkable News as the Fulcrum. There looks to be a bit of pressure in the race coming from the 7, 10, and 11.
This is a highly speculative race, but I do note that my top three PPF ratings, the 6, 3, and 2 ran against each other in the Kelso with the 6 the Reversal Winner and the 2 and the 3 Reversal Horses. I�ll use them in a box with the Fulcrum (yes, I�ll even use the 2, Icy Atlantic, who�s 30-1 morning line and likes to finish 2nd.)
There�s another closer in the race with an incredible final fraction in its last race. How incredible? 22 flat in the Woodbine Mile on the turf. That�s the 4, Host.
So, I know I�m in the deep end of the pool, but this is a chance to take very small bets and make a nice score. As usual, the board will dictate my exact structure.
Breeders� Cup Distaff (9th Race Monmouth)
I looked at this race for quite a while, and it was one of those races where the PBS horses were different from the PPF horses. There looks as if there could be some pressure in the race, but no confirmed closers.
I have absolutely no �feel� for this race. I notice that the Fulcrum horse, the 8, Octave is the Reversal Winner to the 6, Bear Now. I will take very small exotics with those horses, perhaps giving a dash of some really long prices, the 1 and 9, who don�t look bad at all.
An action bet, very small, but a chance to do nicely from a small investment.
Breeders� Cup Turf (10th Race Monmouth)
Another pass. The three heavy morning line favorites, the 7, 6, and 2, are horses on which I can�t make numbers. Although I won�t be betting this race, I would love to be there, because if the 7 runs another great race, I would be urging him on by yelling, �Rage, rage against the dying of the light!�
Breeders� Cup Classic (11th Race Monmouth)
Ah yes, the main attraction. I stopped looking seriously when I realized that the top three PPFs (and PBS for that matter) were Lawyer Ron, Curlin, and Any Given Saturday. All chalk. Hard Spun may have a chance to take them wire to wire, but I don�t see any strong dynamic in the race, and I�ll be watching as a fan, not an investor.
So there you have it, a typical Breeders� Cup for me. Probably one strong bet on a closer in the Sprint, some creative small bets to try to take down a big score in some other races, and passes in some of the features.