highnote
10-26-2007, 01:09 AM
BREEDERS' CUP MILE
JEREMY 42
REMARKABLE NEWS 41
AFTER MARKET 40
COSMONAUT 39
EXCELLENT ART 39
KIP DEVILLE 39
NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ 39
PURIM 39
HOST 38
PRECIOUS KITTEN 38
SILENT NAME 38
TRIPPI'S STORM 38
MY TYPHOON 36
REBELLION 33
RABATASH 32
AFTER MARKET
Aided by an unusually strong pace for a US Turf race when coming from
far
back to chase home Trippi's Storm in the key prep, the G2 Kelso last
time out.
He'd finished unplaced in two more slowly run races at a mile previously
and
the suspicion has to be that a mile is just a bit too short for him.
After
all he's now won eight of his nine starts on fast ground at distances
longer
than a mile, including an 11f G2. He's lost all three times he's gone
this
distance. Very smart. But I can't bet him over a mile.
COSMONAUT
Cosmonaut's two stakes wins on turf have come over ten furlongs. He's
lost
all seven times he's run in turf in stakes races over shorter trips and
lacks
the acceleration normally required to win a big US turf race over a
mile.
Might just chug on into a place though.
EXCELLENT ART
Has run in four slow run races according to my speed ratings. Won three
of
them. In his sole loss, the French Guineas, he flew the last furlong in
11.5
seconds to take fourth despite being hampered and losing momentum. He
also
showed that he can handle tight turns when losing the G1 Sussex Stakes
by
only a head to the very smart Ramonti. This is exactly the sort of
profile you
want to see in a European runner in the Breeders' Cup Mile. He should
be
suited to the slow pace and tight turns and must rank as one of the
major
contenders.
HOST
Has scored just once in the last two years, and that was in the only
non-pattern race he's contested in that time. Can still produce a
tremendous finish
but at seven years of age I think his best years are now behind him.
JEREMY
Jeremy has shown smart form in a whole string of Europe's top seven
furlong
and mile races. But he's suited to the stronger pace of European racing
and
has never run the last furlong faster than 12 seconds in the last year
or in
any race I've been able to find the video of. History shows that a
horse
needs to be able to produce a tremendous turn of foot off a slow pace to
win
this race and Jeremy just hasn't got it.
KIP DEVILLE
Won on racecourse debut over 6f in remarkably slow maiden race
restristed to
Oklahoma breds. His subsequent seven wins have all been over exactly
one
mile. He's lost ground in the closing stages and been beaten all nine
times
he's run longer. Even over a mile and 70 yards he got caught late after
leading with a furlong to run. Clearly this is his perfect distance.
Won
California G1 over a mile in Mach and looked sure winner of the G1
Woodbine Mile in
Canada when kicking clear, only to be run down very late by the smart
Shakespeare. Has an obvious chance.
MY TYPHOON
The best fillies on turf in America are rarely better than G3 in
European
terms. So don't get misled by the tremendous record My Typhoon has built
up in
such races. She's never faced colts in her 21 starts so far and Cary's
speed
ratings say she's certainly not quick enough to beat this bunch.
NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ
Big handsome three year old won the G1 Wood Memorial on dirt but may
actually be a better horse on grass. He's won all three times he's run
on the green
stuff and was most impressive when taking the G2 Jamaica Handicap last
time.
In that race he was trapped behind a wall of horses and had to angle out
to
get a run in the short homestraight. He soon got the lead and
accelerated
in brilliant style through the last half furlong which I'd estimate he
ran in
something less than 5.5 seconds. He had any amount in hand that day and
looks to have a big shot here.
PRECIOUS KITTEN
Admirable filly that has reached the first two on her last ten starts,
winning four Graded stakes, including a G1. But it looks like she wants
further.
She's lost all five times she's gone a mile or less but won the four
most
strongly run races she's contested at longer trips according to Cary's
pace
figures. This is hardly surprising. She's a half sister to Kitten's
Joy who won
the 12 furlong G1 Turf Classic and finished second in the Breeders' Cup
Turf.
PURIM
Looked like a G3 horse that had lost form until undergoing a tie-back
operation in May. Returned to show best form of his life, winning
stakes races
back to back on last two starts, including the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile.
However
I'm concerned that he hasn't shown the sort of acceleration normally
required
to win this race. In addition in my experience a lot of horses look
fantastic
the first two or three times they run following a breathing operation
but
regress to a lower level soon after.
RABATASH
Finished distressed when tailed off at the Curragh on his only 2007
start
back in April. Looked no better than a Listed/G3 horse at two. Faces a
huge
task to win this race off such a long break on his US debut.
REBELLION
Won a 0-85 handicap on the Poly when racing in England. Irunning no
faster
in America and yet to prove he stays this far or that he belongs in this
sort
of company.
REMARKABLE NEWS
Finished behind Kip Deville in two recent starts. But those runs were
on
bigger courses that this. Remarkable News is a medium-sized, very wel
balanced
horse that may very well be best suited by super-tight turf courses like
this. He's won all three times he's run around seven furlong ovals like
Monmouth but lost the last four times he's gone on bigger tracks. He
was
particularly impressive in a G2 at Churchill Downs two runs back where
he set a
moderate pace and then sprinted away from his rivals in the final
furlong to record
a very fast time indeed. He showed when winning another G2 at Pimlico
before
that he doesn't need to make the running to win. Looks a serious
contender.
SILENT NAME
Has now lost all ten G1's he's contested but won all three times he's
run in
lower grade races in America. Only sixth in this race last year and I
see
ho obvious reason why he should do better this time.
TRIPPI'S STORM
This race is all about finishing speed and Trippi's Storm has that in
spades. He can produce an extraordinary burst of acceleration and has
used it to
win all four times he's run 8-9f.
Last time out in the strongly run key prep race, the G2 Kelso, Trippi's
Storm came from out of the clouds to score. Earlier in a slow run
allowance race
he scorched through the final furlong in just 10.8 seconds. He's won on
7f
ovals and 11f ones. Just give him around a mile to race and he'll run
down
pretty much anything in the closing stages. Clearly has a major chance.
SUMMARY
I see five horses having a shot here. I put Kip Deville, Remarkable News
and
Excellent Art in my second division and reckon the big two are Trippi's
Storm and Nobiz Like Shobiz. I slightly prefer Trippi's Storm and am
very
pleased to see that the UK bookies have got his price totally wrong.
I'll take the
insane 20-1 they're offering about him and wait until the day to bet
Nobiz
Like Shobiz at US Tote odds.
Recommended bets
3 points win TRIPPI'S STORM at widely available 20-1
2 points win NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ at US Pari-Mutuel odds
BREEDERS' CUP DISTAFF
GINGER PUNCH 39
HYSTERICALADY 39
UNBRIDLED BELLE 39
INDIAN VALE 38
BEAR NOW 37
OCTAVE 37
BALANCE 36
LADY JOANNE 36
LEAR'S PRINCESS 36
PROP ME UP 35
TEAMMATE 35
TOUGH TIZ'S SIS 35
PANTY RAID 33
BALANCE
Built up a fearsome record in California before the Polytrack craze
ensued
this year, winning six of her eight starts on the lightning fast
surfaces the
State had back then, including three G1's. However she's lost all three
times she's run on the new Polytrack and Cushion Track surfaces in
California and
has been beaten over six lengths the three times she's tried the slower
East
Coast surfaces like this one.
BEAR NOW
Before she beat the smart Octave in a G2 last time Bear Now had won six
times out of eight on Polytrack and finished unplaced four times out of
four on
dirt. Quite why she suddenly found her form on dirt I don't know. But
she
didn't run that fast and looks unlikely to gain the uncontested lead she
enjoyed there and in most of her wins. She's never run this far either.
So on
balance I'm happy to oppose her.
GINGER PUNCH
Won Saratoga's G1 Go For and over 9f. But that race was run at an
unusually
slow pace. In the more strongly run G1 Beldame over this distance last
time
Ginger Punch came with what looked like a winning run to take the lead
only
to tire pretty badly in the last half furlong to finish third. Her best
speed rating was earned at seven furlongs. Smart as she is I just don't
think
she stays this far in a truly run race.
HYSTERICALADY
Front runner. Started off as a sprinter. Indeed she held an alternative
entry in the Fillies Sprint. Her ability to last longer trips seems to
depend on
how fast she has to run to gain the early lead. Won a couple of 8.5f
races
when allowed a soft lead. But tired to run below form even when allowed
to
go slow up front the only time she's run this far. Quite a bit of speed
lines
up here so I'm inclined to believe Hystericalady won't get home well
enough
to win.
INDIAN VALE
Had won all six times she'd run this distance before going under by a
head
to stablemate Unbridled Belle in G1 Beldame last time. Her jockey, John
Velasquez, felt that her defeat was due to the fact she was forced to
run a bit
too fast early on. "My horse ran a huge race," Velazquez said. "I just
got
caught up in a duel and from the half-mile to the quarter pole I had to
run hard
just to stay where I was."
Indian Vale has shown before that she can sit back in a comfortable
second
position early on before kicking on when the leader tires. No doubt
Velasquez
will do that this time and let Hystericalady go off on her own. I see
her
picking up when that one tires and being tough to catch.
LEAR'S PRINCESS
Has only lost twice in her six starts. Once by half a length to Octave.
Another time by a neck to Lady Joanne. Both those losses were in G1
races.
Beat the brilliant Rags To Riches narrowly in the G1 Gazelle last time.
But
that was only because Rags To Riches suffered a hairline fracture and
ran well
below form. In reality Lear's Princess just hasn't run very fast and
needs to
improve to trouble the best here.
LADY JOANNE
Attractive, long striding filly who looks built for longer distances.
So
it's not surprising her biggest win came over the longest distance she's
tried
in the G1 Alabama at a mile and a quarter. I'm sure she was
invconvenienced
by the very slow early pace you so often get on the Polytrack when going
under to Panty Raid in the G1 Spinster back over nine furlongs last
time. Her
only defeat beyond a mile on dirt was a half length second in the G1
Mother
Goose to Octave. If all the front runners take each other on here I can
see
Lady Joanne staying on really well and being a threat.
OCTAVE
Won G1 races both times she's run beyond sprint trips on the giant 12
furlong oval of Belmont. But she's lost all six times she's been asked
to
negotiate two turns elsewhere, getting beat by rivals she had defeated
at Belmont. I
don't think she's going to like this tight track.
PANTY RAID
Has won Graded stakes on dirt, turf and Polytrack. But she's never run
a
fast time and look at the horse that ran her to three quarters of a
length in
her biggest win. It was Valbenny who earned a Racing Post rating of just
67
for winning a moderate Ayr maiden last July. I think her low speed
ratings
reflect her chance.
PROP ME UP
If Prop Me Up was going to win a race this good she would have won a
Grade
Stake by now or at least run a fast time in one of her 29 starts. She's
done
neither.
TEAMMATE
Has lost all eleven times she's run in G1 company and won three of the
last
four times she's contested lower grade races. Her speed ratings say she
doesn't belong in this company.
UNBRIDLED BELLE
Big rather gawky filly that never seems to do anything quickly. As a
result
she has a habit of hoovering up traffic problems in a race and seems
best in
small fields when it's easier for her to manouver. Has improved
markedly
this season, beating Indian Vale and Ginger Punch in G1 Beldame last
time.
However she's lost all four times she's run in fields of nine or more
and run
clunkers the two times she's hit big fields in G1 contests. Stays a
mile and a
quarter well and would be easier to manouver over the longer distance.
In a
big field over 9f on this tight track I'm betting she finds trouble in
running.
SUMMARY
Indian Vale is a rather obvious choice here. And I very much doubt that
she'll start at the 8-1 you can now get from UK bookies. I'd be having a
saver
on Lady Joanne if I could get something like 20-1 on the grounds that a
speed
duel might just set it up for her. But her odds are way shorter than
that.
Recommended bet
4 points win INDIAN VALE at generally available 8-1
BREEDERS' CUP TURF
DYLAN THOMAS 43
RED ROCKS 40
SHAMDINAN 40
BETTER TALK NOW 39
ENGLISH CHANNEL 39
GRAND COUTURIER 39
ICY ATLANTIC 39
SUNRIVER 39
FRI GUY 37
TRANSDUCTION GOLD 35
BETTER TALK NOW
Thirty one horses aged six and up have run in the Breeders' Cup Turf and
they've all lost. Better Talk Now has a better chance than most of them
because
he's won the race already, finished a half length second as a 6YO last
year
and looks set to enjoy the strong early pace he needs once more thanks
to the
presence of Icy Atlantic and a couple of other front runners. Has been
kept
fresh for what may be his final assault on this big prize and can't be
dismissed lightly especially if by some fluke the going ended up
yielding which he
loves.
DYLAN THOMAS
Became the first horse to complete the King George/Arc double in the
same
year since Ballymoss in 1958. Now attempts to become the first horse
ever to
complete the Arc/Breeders' Cup double. Four horses have tried it in the
same
year and they all lost (three ran unplaced). Another four tried their
luck
at the double the year after they won the Arc, and they all lost too.
Dylan Thomas was tiring in the closing stages of the Arc and had to be
hard
driven to win. I wrote at the time that I felt he would probably not be
able
to show his true form if he was asked to run again this season. My gut
feel
is that is still right. I also have problems seeing this giant of a
horse
negotiating a 7f oval like Monmouth Park.
In addition I'm concerned that his trainer has said Dylan Thomas takes a
long time to get into full stride. Anyone who's watched Dylan Thomas
race knows
this is true. So how is he going to get going in time up a homestraight
that's just one and a half furlongs long?
I concede I may be wrong and that the early pace may be strong enough to
pull Dylan Thomas into the race. It could just be he'll win on class
alone.
But he's a horribly short price, so the percentage play just has to be
to
oppose him.
ENGLISH CHANNEL
The general view about English Channel is that he's best off a strong
pace.
This is also the opinion of his connections, which is why they've stuck
in
Icy Atlantic as a pacemaker for him. My own opinion is that the key to
English Channel is how incredibly well balanced he is. His physique
would fit
inside a rectangular box much more closely than a normal horse. Very
little of
it would jut out, so his centre of gravity will always stay very stable.
I've
seen this sort of physique a few times before and invariably the horses
which possess it flounder on the long straight stretches of galloping
courses.
They need tight turns and short homestraights so that they can make the
most
of their ability to negotiate a turn at speed while using their energy
very
economically.
In this regard I would draw your attention to the fact that English
Channel
has won eight of the nine times that he's run on courses less than a mile
in
circumferance, including two G1 races out of two starts here at Monmouth.
His sole loss on a really tight track came in this race last year where
he
probably stuck too close to the furious early gallop and paid the price
up the
longest homestraight in American racing yet still finished third. I like
his
chances of taking this.
FRI GUY
Lost all six Graded stakes he's contested and is not fast enough to
trouble
these. He's well named because he's a front runner that will probably
get
'Fried' chasing Icy Atlantic early.
GRAND COUTURIER
Grand Couturier ran a close fourth to Rail Like, Red Rocks and Sudan -
all
subsequent Group 1 winners, in last year's Grand Prix de Paris, earning a
big
speed rating from me.
Soon after that race he finished third in the G1 Sword Dancer on his
first
US start, despite not getting a clear run.
The next time he ran a long distance was in this year's renewal of the
Sword
Dancer which he won. He followed that up with a strong finishing third
to
Doctor Dino in the G1 Man O'War Stakes where the pedestrian early gallop
ensured it wasn't a sufficient test of stamina for him.
Grand Couturier has won all four times he's run nine furlongs or more on
tracks a mile or less in circumferance, including in the prestigious
Derby du
Midi, the top 3YO race in the French provinces. The likely strong early
pace
will suit him so I have to regard him as a big threat to take this.
ICY ATLANTIC
The pacemaker for Better Talk Now. He's just what a pacemaker needs to
be -
good enough so that the other jockeys are scared to totally ignore him.
This proved the case last year when he pulled the field along in this
race at a
terrific clip, setting the race up for Red Rocks and Better Talk Now who
need
a strong early pace as much as English Channel who chased them home in
third. This year, with two other front runners lining up in
Transduction Goldn
and Fri Guy, Icy Atlantic seems even more likey to be able to generate a
strong
early pace. For this reason, even though he has no chance, he is the
key to
this race.
RED ROCKS
Has been trained exclusively for this race ever since he first won it
last
year. And it looks likely that he'll get the strong pace he needs. So
far
Red Rocks has run in four strongly run races at ten furlongs or more by
my
estimates. He won three of these four times and was a good second to
the
brilliant Rail Link in his only loss. He's lost all eight times he's run
less than
ten furlongs or encountered a slow early pace. The concern I have is
that the
homestraight here at Monmouth is much shorter than at Churchill and he
might
not get up in time. Still he looks major threat to emulate High
Chaparral's
feat of winning this race twice.
SHAMDINAN
When a European import runs well in America straight off the plane but
then
regresses in performance local punters call it the 'Euro Bounce'. The
cause
is almost certainly that a horse wins first time out on the basis of its
European training but then takes a while to get used to the very
different style
of training it's subjected to in America. This looks to be the
explanation
for Shamdinan's two flops in the States following his success in the G1
Secretariat Stakes on his arrival. You could argue that Shamdinan may
now have
adjusted to local conditons and will revert to the fine form he showed
in the
Secretariat Stakes and French Derby. But there's no evidence for that.
In
addition the horse still needs to prove he stays this far following
sub-par runs
both times he's been tried beyond ten furlongs.
SUMMARY
The value play here has to be to bet against Dylan Thomas not reaching
first
or second place. As I see it English Channel is much the most likely
winner. So I'm going to bet him to win at the inflated odds UK bookies
currently
have him at. And I'm also going to have three exactas betting that one
of Red
Rocks, Grand Couturier or Better Talk Now will follow him home. In
addition,
Grand Couturier looks set to be neglected in the US bettting so I'm
having a
saver on him too
Recommended bets
4 points win ENGLISH CHANNEL at 5-1 with Betfred, Boylesports or Corals
Plus three exactas with ENGLISH CHANNEL to beat each of the following
three
horses;
RED ROCKS
BETTER TAK NOW
GRAND COUTURIER
Plus 2 points win GRAND COUTURIER at US Pari-Mutuel odds.
JEREMY 42
REMARKABLE NEWS 41
AFTER MARKET 40
COSMONAUT 39
EXCELLENT ART 39
KIP DEVILLE 39
NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ 39
PURIM 39
HOST 38
PRECIOUS KITTEN 38
SILENT NAME 38
TRIPPI'S STORM 38
MY TYPHOON 36
REBELLION 33
RABATASH 32
AFTER MARKET
Aided by an unusually strong pace for a US Turf race when coming from
far
back to chase home Trippi's Storm in the key prep, the G2 Kelso last
time out.
He'd finished unplaced in two more slowly run races at a mile previously
and
the suspicion has to be that a mile is just a bit too short for him.
After
all he's now won eight of his nine starts on fast ground at distances
longer
than a mile, including an 11f G2. He's lost all three times he's gone
this
distance. Very smart. But I can't bet him over a mile.
COSMONAUT
Cosmonaut's two stakes wins on turf have come over ten furlongs. He's
lost
all seven times he's run in turf in stakes races over shorter trips and
lacks
the acceleration normally required to win a big US turf race over a
mile.
Might just chug on into a place though.
EXCELLENT ART
Has run in four slow run races according to my speed ratings. Won three
of
them. In his sole loss, the French Guineas, he flew the last furlong in
11.5
seconds to take fourth despite being hampered and losing momentum. He
also
showed that he can handle tight turns when losing the G1 Sussex Stakes
by
only a head to the very smart Ramonti. This is exactly the sort of
profile you
want to see in a European runner in the Breeders' Cup Mile. He should
be
suited to the slow pace and tight turns and must rank as one of the
major
contenders.
HOST
Has scored just once in the last two years, and that was in the only
non-pattern race he's contested in that time. Can still produce a
tremendous finish
but at seven years of age I think his best years are now behind him.
JEREMY
Jeremy has shown smart form in a whole string of Europe's top seven
furlong
and mile races. But he's suited to the stronger pace of European racing
and
has never run the last furlong faster than 12 seconds in the last year
or in
any race I've been able to find the video of. History shows that a
horse
needs to be able to produce a tremendous turn of foot off a slow pace to
win
this race and Jeremy just hasn't got it.
KIP DEVILLE
Won on racecourse debut over 6f in remarkably slow maiden race
restristed to
Oklahoma breds. His subsequent seven wins have all been over exactly
one
mile. He's lost ground in the closing stages and been beaten all nine
times
he's run longer. Even over a mile and 70 yards he got caught late after
leading with a furlong to run. Clearly this is his perfect distance.
Won
California G1 over a mile in Mach and looked sure winner of the G1
Woodbine Mile in
Canada when kicking clear, only to be run down very late by the smart
Shakespeare. Has an obvious chance.
MY TYPHOON
The best fillies on turf in America are rarely better than G3 in
European
terms. So don't get misled by the tremendous record My Typhoon has built
up in
such races. She's never faced colts in her 21 starts so far and Cary's
speed
ratings say she's certainly not quick enough to beat this bunch.
NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ
Big handsome three year old won the G1 Wood Memorial on dirt but may
actually be a better horse on grass. He's won all three times he's run
on the green
stuff and was most impressive when taking the G2 Jamaica Handicap last
time.
In that race he was trapped behind a wall of horses and had to angle out
to
get a run in the short homestraight. He soon got the lead and
accelerated
in brilliant style through the last half furlong which I'd estimate he
ran in
something less than 5.5 seconds. He had any amount in hand that day and
looks to have a big shot here.
PRECIOUS KITTEN
Admirable filly that has reached the first two on her last ten starts,
winning four Graded stakes, including a G1. But it looks like she wants
further.
She's lost all five times she's gone a mile or less but won the four
most
strongly run races she's contested at longer trips according to Cary's
pace
figures. This is hardly surprising. She's a half sister to Kitten's
Joy who won
the 12 furlong G1 Turf Classic and finished second in the Breeders' Cup
Turf.
PURIM
Looked like a G3 horse that had lost form until undergoing a tie-back
operation in May. Returned to show best form of his life, winning
stakes races
back to back on last two starts, including the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile.
However
I'm concerned that he hasn't shown the sort of acceleration normally
required
to win this race. In addition in my experience a lot of horses look
fantastic
the first two or three times they run following a breathing operation
but
regress to a lower level soon after.
RABATASH
Finished distressed when tailed off at the Curragh on his only 2007
start
back in April. Looked no better than a Listed/G3 horse at two. Faces a
huge
task to win this race off such a long break on his US debut.
REBELLION
Won a 0-85 handicap on the Poly when racing in England. Irunning no
faster
in America and yet to prove he stays this far or that he belongs in this
sort
of company.
REMARKABLE NEWS
Finished behind Kip Deville in two recent starts. But those runs were
on
bigger courses that this. Remarkable News is a medium-sized, very wel
balanced
horse that may very well be best suited by super-tight turf courses like
this. He's won all three times he's run around seven furlong ovals like
Monmouth but lost the last four times he's gone on bigger tracks. He
was
particularly impressive in a G2 at Churchill Downs two runs back where
he set a
moderate pace and then sprinted away from his rivals in the final
furlong to record
a very fast time indeed. He showed when winning another G2 at Pimlico
before
that he doesn't need to make the running to win. Looks a serious
contender.
SILENT NAME
Has now lost all ten G1's he's contested but won all three times he's
run in
lower grade races in America. Only sixth in this race last year and I
see
ho obvious reason why he should do better this time.
TRIPPI'S STORM
This race is all about finishing speed and Trippi's Storm has that in
spades. He can produce an extraordinary burst of acceleration and has
used it to
win all four times he's run 8-9f.
Last time out in the strongly run key prep race, the G2 Kelso, Trippi's
Storm came from out of the clouds to score. Earlier in a slow run
allowance race
he scorched through the final furlong in just 10.8 seconds. He's won on
7f
ovals and 11f ones. Just give him around a mile to race and he'll run
down
pretty much anything in the closing stages. Clearly has a major chance.
SUMMARY
I see five horses having a shot here. I put Kip Deville, Remarkable News
and
Excellent Art in my second division and reckon the big two are Trippi's
Storm and Nobiz Like Shobiz. I slightly prefer Trippi's Storm and am
very
pleased to see that the UK bookies have got his price totally wrong.
I'll take the
insane 20-1 they're offering about him and wait until the day to bet
Nobiz
Like Shobiz at US Tote odds.
Recommended bets
3 points win TRIPPI'S STORM at widely available 20-1
2 points win NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ at US Pari-Mutuel odds
BREEDERS' CUP DISTAFF
GINGER PUNCH 39
HYSTERICALADY 39
UNBRIDLED BELLE 39
INDIAN VALE 38
BEAR NOW 37
OCTAVE 37
BALANCE 36
LADY JOANNE 36
LEAR'S PRINCESS 36
PROP ME UP 35
TEAMMATE 35
TOUGH TIZ'S SIS 35
PANTY RAID 33
BALANCE
Built up a fearsome record in California before the Polytrack craze
ensued
this year, winning six of her eight starts on the lightning fast
surfaces the
State had back then, including three G1's. However she's lost all three
times she's run on the new Polytrack and Cushion Track surfaces in
California and
has been beaten over six lengths the three times she's tried the slower
East
Coast surfaces like this one.
BEAR NOW
Before she beat the smart Octave in a G2 last time Bear Now had won six
times out of eight on Polytrack and finished unplaced four times out of
four on
dirt. Quite why she suddenly found her form on dirt I don't know. But
she
didn't run that fast and looks unlikely to gain the uncontested lead she
enjoyed there and in most of her wins. She's never run this far either.
So on
balance I'm happy to oppose her.
GINGER PUNCH
Won Saratoga's G1 Go For and over 9f. But that race was run at an
unusually
slow pace. In the more strongly run G1 Beldame over this distance last
time
Ginger Punch came with what looked like a winning run to take the lead
only
to tire pretty badly in the last half furlong to finish third. Her best
speed rating was earned at seven furlongs. Smart as she is I just don't
think
she stays this far in a truly run race.
HYSTERICALADY
Front runner. Started off as a sprinter. Indeed she held an alternative
entry in the Fillies Sprint. Her ability to last longer trips seems to
depend on
how fast she has to run to gain the early lead. Won a couple of 8.5f
races
when allowed a soft lead. But tired to run below form even when allowed
to
go slow up front the only time she's run this far. Quite a bit of speed
lines
up here so I'm inclined to believe Hystericalady won't get home well
enough
to win.
INDIAN VALE
Had won all six times she'd run this distance before going under by a
head
to stablemate Unbridled Belle in G1 Beldame last time. Her jockey, John
Velasquez, felt that her defeat was due to the fact she was forced to
run a bit
too fast early on. "My horse ran a huge race," Velazquez said. "I just
got
caught up in a duel and from the half-mile to the quarter pole I had to
run hard
just to stay where I was."
Indian Vale has shown before that she can sit back in a comfortable
second
position early on before kicking on when the leader tires. No doubt
Velasquez
will do that this time and let Hystericalady go off on her own. I see
her
picking up when that one tires and being tough to catch.
LEAR'S PRINCESS
Has only lost twice in her six starts. Once by half a length to Octave.
Another time by a neck to Lady Joanne. Both those losses were in G1
races.
Beat the brilliant Rags To Riches narrowly in the G1 Gazelle last time.
But
that was only because Rags To Riches suffered a hairline fracture and
ran well
below form. In reality Lear's Princess just hasn't run very fast and
needs to
improve to trouble the best here.
LADY JOANNE
Attractive, long striding filly who looks built for longer distances.
So
it's not surprising her biggest win came over the longest distance she's
tried
in the G1 Alabama at a mile and a quarter. I'm sure she was
invconvenienced
by the very slow early pace you so often get on the Polytrack when going
under to Panty Raid in the G1 Spinster back over nine furlongs last
time. Her
only defeat beyond a mile on dirt was a half length second in the G1
Mother
Goose to Octave. If all the front runners take each other on here I can
see
Lady Joanne staying on really well and being a threat.
OCTAVE
Won G1 races both times she's run beyond sprint trips on the giant 12
furlong oval of Belmont. But she's lost all six times she's been asked
to
negotiate two turns elsewhere, getting beat by rivals she had defeated
at Belmont. I
don't think she's going to like this tight track.
PANTY RAID
Has won Graded stakes on dirt, turf and Polytrack. But she's never run
a
fast time and look at the horse that ran her to three quarters of a
length in
her biggest win. It was Valbenny who earned a Racing Post rating of just
67
for winning a moderate Ayr maiden last July. I think her low speed
ratings
reflect her chance.
PROP ME UP
If Prop Me Up was going to win a race this good she would have won a
Grade
Stake by now or at least run a fast time in one of her 29 starts. She's
done
neither.
TEAMMATE
Has lost all eleven times she's run in G1 company and won three of the
last
four times she's contested lower grade races. Her speed ratings say she
doesn't belong in this company.
UNBRIDLED BELLE
Big rather gawky filly that never seems to do anything quickly. As a
result
she has a habit of hoovering up traffic problems in a race and seems
best in
small fields when it's easier for her to manouver. Has improved
markedly
this season, beating Indian Vale and Ginger Punch in G1 Beldame last
time.
However she's lost all four times she's run in fields of nine or more
and run
clunkers the two times she's hit big fields in G1 contests. Stays a
mile and a
quarter well and would be easier to manouver over the longer distance.
In a
big field over 9f on this tight track I'm betting she finds trouble in
running.
SUMMARY
Indian Vale is a rather obvious choice here. And I very much doubt that
she'll start at the 8-1 you can now get from UK bookies. I'd be having a
saver
on Lady Joanne if I could get something like 20-1 on the grounds that a
speed
duel might just set it up for her. But her odds are way shorter than
that.
Recommended bet
4 points win INDIAN VALE at generally available 8-1
BREEDERS' CUP TURF
DYLAN THOMAS 43
RED ROCKS 40
SHAMDINAN 40
BETTER TALK NOW 39
ENGLISH CHANNEL 39
GRAND COUTURIER 39
ICY ATLANTIC 39
SUNRIVER 39
FRI GUY 37
TRANSDUCTION GOLD 35
BETTER TALK NOW
Thirty one horses aged six and up have run in the Breeders' Cup Turf and
they've all lost. Better Talk Now has a better chance than most of them
because
he's won the race already, finished a half length second as a 6YO last
year
and looks set to enjoy the strong early pace he needs once more thanks
to the
presence of Icy Atlantic and a couple of other front runners. Has been
kept
fresh for what may be his final assault on this big prize and can't be
dismissed lightly especially if by some fluke the going ended up
yielding which he
loves.
DYLAN THOMAS
Became the first horse to complete the King George/Arc double in the
same
year since Ballymoss in 1958. Now attempts to become the first horse
ever to
complete the Arc/Breeders' Cup double. Four horses have tried it in the
same
year and they all lost (three ran unplaced). Another four tried their
luck
at the double the year after they won the Arc, and they all lost too.
Dylan Thomas was tiring in the closing stages of the Arc and had to be
hard
driven to win. I wrote at the time that I felt he would probably not be
able
to show his true form if he was asked to run again this season. My gut
feel
is that is still right. I also have problems seeing this giant of a
horse
negotiating a 7f oval like Monmouth Park.
In addition I'm concerned that his trainer has said Dylan Thomas takes a
long time to get into full stride. Anyone who's watched Dylan Thomas
race knows
this is true. So how is he going to get going in time up a homestraight
that's just one and a half furlongs long?
I concede I may be wrong and that the early pace may be strong enough to
pull Dylan Thomas into the race. It could just be he'll win on class
alone.
But he's a horribly short price, so the percentage play just has to be
to
oppose him.
ENGLISH CHANNEL
The general view about English Channel is that he's best off a strong
pace.
This is also the opinion of his connections, which is why they've stuck
in
Icy Atlantic as a pacemaker for him. My own opinion is that the key to
English Channel is how incredibly well balanced he is. His physique
would fit
inside a rectangular box much more closely than a normal horse. Very
little of
it would jut out, so his centre of gravity will always stay very stable.
I've
seen this sort of physique a few times before and invariably the horses
which possess it flounder on the long straight stretches of galloping
courses.
They need tight turns and short homestraights so that they can make the
most
of their ability to negotiate a turn at speed while using their energy
very
economically.
In this regard I would draw your attention to the fact that English
Channel
has won eight of the nine times that he's run on courses less than a mile
in
circumferance, including two G1 races out of two starts here at Monmouth.
His sole loss on a really tight track came in this race last year where
he
probably stuck too close to the furious early gallop and paid the price
up the
longest homestraight in American racing yet still finished third. I like
his
chances of taking this.
FRI GUY
Lost all six Graded stakes he's contested and is not fast enough to
trouble
these. He's well named because he's a front runner that will probably
get
'Fried' chasing Icy Atlantic early.
GRAND COUTURIER
Grand Couturier ran a close fourth to Rail Like, Red Rocks and Sudan -
all
subsequent Group 1 winners, in last year's Grand Prix de Paris, earning a
big
speed rating from me.
Soon after that race he finished third in the G1 Sword Dancer on his
first
US start, despite not getting a clear run.
The next time he ran a long distance was in this year's renewal of the
Sword
Dancer which he won. He followed that up with a strong finishing third
to
Doctor Dino in the G1 Man O'War Stakes where the pedestrian early gallop
ensured it wasn't a sufficient test of stamina for him.
Grand Couturier has won all four times he's run nine furlongs or more on
tracks a mile or less in circumferance, including in the prestigious
Derby du
Midi, the top 3YO race in the French provinces. The likely strong early
pace
will suit him so I have to regard him as a big threat to take this.
ICY ATLANTIC
The pacemaker for Better Talk Now. He's just what a pacemaker needs to
be -
good enough so that the other jockeys are scared to totally ignore him.
This proved the case last year when he pulled the field along in this
race at a
terrific clip, setting the race up for Red Rocks and Better Talk Now who
need
a strong early pace as much as English Channel who chased them home in
third. This year, with two other front runners lining up in
Transduction Goldn
and Fri Guy, Icy Atlantic seems even more likey to be able to generate a
strong
early pace. For this reason, even though he has no chance, he is the
key to
this race.
RED ROCKS
Has been trained exclusively for this race ever since he first won it
last
year. And it looks likely that he'll get the strong pace he needs. So
far
Red Rocks has run in four strongly run races at ten furlongs or more by
my
estimates. He won three of these four times and was a good second to
the
brilliant Rail Link in his only loss. He's lost all eight times he's run
less than
ten furlongs or encountered a slow early pace. The concern I have is
that the
homestraight here at Monmouth is much shorter than at Churchill and he
might
not get up in time. Still he looks major threat to emulate High
Chaparral's
feat of winning this race twice.
SHAMDINAN
When a European import runs well in America straight off the plane but
then
regresses in performance local punters call it the 'Euro Bounce'. The
cause
is almost certainly that a horse wins first time out on the basis of its
European training but then takes a while to get used to the very
different style
of training it's subjected to in America. This looks to be the
explanation
for Shamdinan's two flops in the States following his success in the G1
Secretariat Stakes on his arrival. You could argue that Shamdinan may
now have
adjusted to local conditons and will revert to the fine form he showed
in the
Secretariat Stakes and French Derby. But there's no evidence for that.
In
addition the horse still needs to prove he stays this far following
sub-par runs
both times he's been tried beyond ten furlongs.
SUMMARY
The value play here has to be to bet against Dylan Thomas not reaching
first
or second place. As I see it English Channel is much the most likely
winner. So I'm going to bet him to win at the inflated odds UK bookies
currently
have him at. And I'm also going to have three exactas betting that one
of Red
Rocks, Grand Couturier or Better Talk Now will follow him home. In
addition,
Grand Couturier looks set to be neglected in the US bettting so I'm
having a
saver on him too
Recommended bets
4 points win ENGLISH CHANNEL at 5-1 with Betfred, Boylesports or Corals
Plus three exactas with ENGLISH CHANNEL to beat each of the following
three
horses;
RED ROCKS
BETTER TAK NOW
GRAND COUTURIER
Plus 2 points win GRAND COUTURIER at US Pari-Mutuel odds.