highnote
10-26-2007, 01:01 AM
Nick Mordin gave me permission to post his Breeders' Cup analysis on PaceAdvantage. His analysis is also published in the UK newspaper Sporting Life Weekender.
This is Part 1. It's a long analysis, so it will take several posts.
For more info about Nick visit his website at nickmordin.com
Enjoy!
Good luck and good betting.
--------------
DON'T DESERT GEORGE
Two years ago New Jersey, the State where this year's Breeders' Cup is to
be
run, ran a competition to find a new marketing slogan. They should
have
known better. New Jersey is the State all Americans love to joke about.
So
it's hardly surprising a large percentage of the entries made fun of
the
reputation 'the Garden State' has for pollution, political corruption
and mob
connections.
Worthy of mention are; "New Jersey: When you're here, you're Family. Or
else."; New Jersey: Most of Our Elected Officials Have Not Been
Indicted." and
(my favourite) "New Jersey: Who Farted?"
But, hey, New Jersey also boasts one of my favourite racecourses in the
2007
Breeders' Cup venue Monmouth Park.
Monmouth Park offers hundreds of picnic tables, ample seating, the best
paddock area of any US track and excellent catering which includes that
wondrous
American dish 'cheese fries' (extruded potato paste, deep-fried and then
smothered with processed cheese sprayed from a pressurised can (um
yum!)).
However, if you want to ensure that the New Jersey jokes aren't on you
I'd
urge you to bear in mind the unique nature of US turf racing before
studying
the form for the meeting. Turf races in America are almost always run
at a
much slower early pace than in Europe. In addition the tracks are far
tighter.
Monmouth Park's turf course for example is just seven furlongs in
circumferance with a homestraight of one and a half furlongs.
The last kind of horse you want to bet at Monmouth Park is a great big
long
striding sort that takes ages to get into top gear like Dylan Thomas.
The
type to favour is the more agile runner with a terrific burst of speed
like his
stablemate Excellent Art. An inside draw is a big plus too on this
tight,
turning course.
I reckon I've pinpointed stacks of good bets at the meeting. But the
horse
I'll be cheering for most is undoubtedly George Washington in the
Classic. I
like his chances almost as much as I like cheese fries..
ABOUT THE SPEED RATINGS
The speed ratings shown are a composite of the ones I produce for
European
races and those Cary Fotias produces for US races adjusted to my scale.
They
represent the fastest each horse has run in the last year or so, with one
point equaling a fifth of a second per mile. For more details of Cary's
ratings
log on to _www.equiform.com_ (http://www.equiform.com) .
THE BREEDERS' CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT
DREAM RUSH 39
JAZZY 39
RAHIYAH 39
MISS MACY SUE 39
OPRAH WINNEY 39
SHAGGY MANE 38
WILD GAMS 38
MARYFIELD 37
BARONESS THATCHER 35
MIRACULOUS MISS 34
BARONESS THATCHER
Not very big and often has trouble fighting for position as a result.
Her
sole dirt win came in a seven runner race. Has trouble going early pace
when
cut back to this distance last time. Consistent but surely prefers
longer.
DREAM RUSH
Won six of seven sprints including Grade 1's on last two. Unlucky second
sole sprint loss. Attractive, good-bodied filly posesses blazing early
speed.
Wins have all been by at least two lengths. Can almost certainly run
faster
than she's had to so far. Major player.
JAZZY
Classy ex South African mare that's built for speed. Came within a
tenth of
a second of the Vaal's 5f course record when winning on her racecourse
debut. Broke the same track's 6f course record next time. Unlucky
short head
loss US debut. Only other sprint defeat was third in very fast time to
S.African Champion sprinter National Colour. Won G2 nicely first try on
dirt last
time. Looks tough to beat.
MARYFIELD
Has won all three times she's shipped to the East Coast from her
California
base to run on dirt, most recently winning the G1 Ballerina over 7f.
Equally
good at six and has a shot of maintaining unbeaten East Cost record in
dirt
here.
MIRACULOUS MISS
Won six of first seven races but beaten by five of today's rivals in
recent
starts while losing six in a row.
MISS MACY SUE
Improved to win five from six this year. But has mostly run at minor
tracks. Only try above G3 resulted in unplaced effort.
OPRAH WINNEY
Attempts to become first Breeders' Cup winner bred in New York. Beaten
by
Maryfield and Wild Gams but won five of last seven including a G2.
Doesn't
look quite good enough.
RAHIYAH
Will she handle dirt, a tight turn and the cut back to 6f? It's quite
possible. Her short, flat stride will be suited to dirt. She coped with
the
pretty tight home turn at Longchamp. She showed plenty of speed when
breaking her
maiden over 6f. Attractive classy filly has the ability to win this and
run
seriously fast last time.
SHAGGY MANE
Looks to be what Americans call a 'need to lead' sort. Has won all six
times
she's enjoyed an uncontested lead but lost all six times she's been
headed.
Useful but faces plenty of pressure for the lead here.
WILD GAMS
Strong finisher that will benefit from likely scorching early pace here.
Trouble is she's never won above G3.
SUMMARY
Likely favourite Dream Rush, Jazzy and Rahiyah look the big three here
with
Maryfield a possible. Jazzy and Rahiyah have run so much faster than
everything bar Dream Rush I prefer betting both of them to siding with
the
favourite.
Recommended bets;
1 point win Jazzy
1 point win Rahiyah
THE BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE TURF
STRIKE THE DEAL 36
ACHILL ISLAND 34
THE LEOPARD 33
PREACHIN MAN 31
COWBOY CAL 30
CHEROKEE TRAINGLE 29
DOMESTIC FUND 29
NOWNOWNOW 29
OLD MAN BUCK 29
AUSTINTATIOUS 27
CANNONBALL 27
GLOBETROTTER 27
MORAL COMPASS 27
OVEREXTENDED 27
PRUSSIAN 27
SHORE DO 27
TEXAS FEVER 27
WHY TONTO 27
GIO PONTI 26
HORSE DOCTOR 25
YOUR ROUND 25
ACHILL ISLAND
Dam has produced two G2 winning Australian sprinters and a useful Irish
5f
winner. Showed he stayed with good second in Royal Lodge last time.
But
strongest indicator of Breeders' Cup success is his Tipperary win where
he showed
he could handle a tight turf, firm ground and the slow early pace he
will
likely encounter here. Big chance against this weak field.
AUSTINTATIOUS
Still a maiden but ran really well to take second to what may well be a
Group 1 winner in a slow run but red hot Nemwarket maiden over this trip
last
time. Got caught a bit flat-footed when pace quickened there but kept
on really
well, showing a nice flowing stride. Good enough to at least place in
what
is probably a weaker race here.
CANNONBALL
Lost dreadful Claiming race before winning weak maiden restricted to
horses
bred in New York. Too slow to consider.
CHEROKEE TRIANGLE
Exhibited steering problems in first three starts but improved markedly
to
win Stakes race when fitted with a leather burr on his bit which
apparently
gives his rider more control. Always crusing in that race and sprinted
away
when set down in the homsetraight to score by ten lengths. It was
noticeable
though that he was deliberately kept wide of the other runners in a
small field
and never had to alter his path. I'm still dubious about his ability to
be
steered around other runners. Needs improvement to match the Europeans
but
might just do it seeing how much he had in hand last time.
COWBOY CAL
Set strong pace and kept on really well to win maiden impressively when
switched to turf and stepped up to a mile last time. A good deal more
is needed
here though.
DOMESTIC FUND
A brother to four time G1 winner Refuse To Bend and half brother to
Melbourne Cup victor Media Puzzle. Won the only time he raced on the
fast surface
those two favoured. Second on much softer ground in G2 Beresford last
time.
Jockey Pat Smullen predicted he'd develop into a mile and a half horse
after
that run, so the slow pace and sprint finish around this tight track may
not
play to his strengths. Still, you have to consider him in a race the
Europeans dominate.
GIO PONTI
Produced tremendous burst of speed to win slow run unlisted stakes on
turf
last time. Unbeaten in two starts but my read of his sectional times
suggests
he's unlikely to immprove enough to trouble the Europeans.
GLOBETROTTER
Fading winner of maiden on Tapeta (similar to Polytrack) at minor track
before winning G3 on Polytrack by a head. Will probably act on turf but
needs tp
improve a lot to feature.
HORSE DOCTOR
Lost two maidens on turf before winning one when switched to Polytrack.
Distant third to Texas Fever in Polytrack G3 after that. Looks
outclassed.
MORAL COMPASS
Won at third attempt when making all to win truly run Belmont turf
maiden in
slow time driven out. Can't see shy he should improve enough to feature
here.
NOWNOWNOW
Looked unlucky when second to Gio Ponti last time. Had run faster than
that
one when winning minor stakes race on turf debut before that. Big, good
looking sort, always stays on strong. May benefit from stronger pace
produced
by European presence and might just place.
PREACHIN MAN
Been showing seriously early speed while running well over 5-6f on dirt.
No
obvious reason why he should handle turf or stay this far.
PRUSSIAN
Impressive all the way winner of turf maiden at big Saratoga meeting
before
winning same turf G3 that Dreaming Of Anna took last year before winning
BC
Juvenile Fillies. Looks the main US threat along with The Leopard.
TEXAS FEVER
Scrambled home in weak looking renewal of G3 Kentucky Juvenile Cup last
time. Yet to run on anything but Polytrack. The clock says he's not up
to it.
THE LEOPARD
Cost Coolmore $1.2 million at Florida 2YO sale in March. Bit surprising
they kept him in US because his dam was third in the Irish 1000 Guineas
Trial
and her dam is a sister to four smart turf performers including the top
turf
sire Caerleon. Won one of America's few Graded juvenile stakes on turf
last
time, setting a very slow pace and then sprinting the last 2.5f in just
27.8
seconds. Looks the only serious threat to the Europeans. But still looks
immature physically.
STRIKE THE DEAL
Be wary of assuming this horse won't stay simply because he failed to do
so
at Doncaster. He pulled way too hard for his head that day. Here the
very
tight turns and resultant crowding will probably stop him from doing
that.
He's been finishing very strongly to win and place in some of the top 6f
2YO
races. US punters will be happy to bet that such a horse can 'stretch
out' to
a mile in a slow run race around tight turns like this. Major chance.
WHY TONTO
Narrow winner of unlisted turf stakes last time in moderate time. Now
unbeaten in two turf starts but needs to improve massively to feature on
clock.
YOUR ROUND
Beaten by several US runners last two. No logical reason he should
improve
enough to beat them or Europeans here.
CONCLUSION
Very few American two year olds run on turf, and virtually none of the
good
ones. That's why there are only a handful of Graded juvenile Stakes run
on
turf in American and no Grade 1's. So it's inevitable that this new
Breeders'
Cup race is a total mis-match which the Europeans will probably always
dominate.
Perming the European runners in a Trifecta is, in my humble opinion, the
best bet I've ever seen at a Breeders' Cup. I'd be gobsmacked if an
American
runner placed, and the Trifecta on the US pari-mutuel could easily pay
100-1.
If I were a UK or Irish bookie I would refuse to take the bet, so you
may
have to shop around to get it on.
Recommended bets;
TRIFECT PERM at US Pari Mutuel odds
ACHILL ISLAND
AUSTINTATIOUS
DOMESTIC FUND
STRIKE THE DEAL
This is Part 1. It's a long analysis, so it will take several posts.
For more info about Nick visit his website at nickmordin.com
Enjoy!
Good luck and good betting.
--------------
DON'T DESERT GEORGE
Two years ago New Jersey, the State where this year's Breeders' Cup is to
be
run, ran a competition to find a new marketing slogan. They should
have
known better. New Jersey is the State all Americans love to joke about.
So
it's hardly surprising a large percentage of the entries made fun of
the
reputation 'the Garden State' has for pollution, political corruption
and mob
connections.
Worthy of mention are; "New Jersey: When you're here, you're Family. Or
else."; New Jersey: Most of Our Elected Officials Have Not Been
Indicted." and
(my favourite) "New Jersey: Who Farted?"
But, hey, New Jersey also boasts one of my favourite racecourses in the
2007
Breeders' Cup venue Monmouth Park.
Monmouth Park offers hundreds of picnic tables, ample seating, the best
paddock area of any US track and excellent catering which includes that
wondrous
American dish 'cheese fries' (extruded potato paste, deep-fried and then
smothered with processed cheese sprayed from a pressurised can (um
yum!)).
However, if you want to ensure that the New Jersey jokes aren't on you
I'd
urge you to bear in mind the unique nature of US turf racing before
studying
the form for the meeting. Turf races in America are almost always run
at a
much slower early pace than in Europe. In addition the tracks are far
tighter.
Monmouth Park's turf course for example is just seven furlongs in
circumferance with a homestraight of one and a half furlongs.
The last kind of horse you want to bet at Monmouth Park is a great big
long
striding sort that takes ages to get into top gear like Dylan Thomas.
The
type to favour is the more agile runner with a terrific burst of speed
like his
stablemate Excellent Art. An inside draw is a big plus too on this
tight,
turning course.
I reckon I've pinpointed stacks of good bets at the meeting. But the
horse
I'll be cheering for most is undoubtedly George Washington in the
Classic. I
like his chances almost as much as I like cheese fries..
ABOUT THE SPEED RATINGS
The speed ratings shown are a composite of the ones I produce for
European
races and those Cary Fotias produces for US races adjusted to my scale.
They
represent the fastest each horse has run in the last year or so, with one
point equaling a fifth of a second per mile. For more details of Cary's
ratings
log on to _www.equiform.com_ (http://www.equiform.com) .
THE BREEDERS' CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT
DREAM RUSH 39
JAZZY 39
RAHIYAH 39
MISS MACY SUE 39
OPRAH WINNEY 39
SHAGGY MANE 38
WILD GAMS 38
MARYFIELD 37
BARONESS THATCHER 35
MIRACULOUS MISS 34
BARONESS THATCHER
Not very big and often has trouble fighting for position as a result.
Her
sole dirt win came in a seven runner race. Has trouble going early pace
when
cut back to this distance last time. Consistent but surely prefers
longer.
DREAM RUSH
Won six of seven sprints including Grade 1's on last two. Unlucky second
sole sprint loss. Attractive, good-bodied filly posesses blazing early
speed.
Wins have all been by at least two lengths. Can almost certainly run
faster
than she's had to so far. Major player.
JAZZY
Classy ex South African mare that's built for speed. Came within a
tenth of
a second of the Vaal's 5f course record when winning on her racecourse
debut. Broke the same track's 6f course record next time. Unlucky
short head
loss US debut. Only other sprint defeat was third in very fast time to
S.African Champion sprinter National Colour. Won G2 nicely first try on
dirt last
time. Looks tough to beat.
MARYFIELD
Has won all three times she's shipped to the East Coast from her
California
base to run on dirt, most recently winning the G1 Ballerina over 7f.
Equally
good at six and has a shot of maintaining unbeaten East Cost record in
dirt
here.
MIRACULOUS MISS
Won six of first seven races but beaten by five of today's rivals in
recent
starts while losing six in a row.
MISS MACY SUE
Improved to win five from six this year. But has mostly run at minor
tracks. Only try above G3 resulted in unplaced effort.
OPRAH WINNEY
Attempts to become first Breeders' Cup winner bred in New York. Beaten
by
Maryfield and Wild Gams but won five of last seven including a G2.
Doesn't
look quite good enough.
RAHIYAH
Will she handle dirt, a tight turn and the cut back to 6f? It's quite
possible. Her short, flat stride will be suited to dirt. She coped with
the
pretty tight home turn at Longchamp. She showed plenty of speed when
breaking her
maiden over 6f. Attractive classy filly has the ability to win this and
run
seriously fast last time.
SHAGGY MANE
Looks to be what Americans call a 'need to lead' sort. Has won all six
times
she's enjoyed an uncontested lead but lost all six times she's been
headed.
Useful but faces plenty of pressure for the lead here.
WILD GAMS
Strong finisher that will benefit from likely scorching early pace here.
Trouble is she's never won above G3.
SUMMARY
Likely favourite Dream Rush, Jazzy and Rahiyah look the big three here
with
Maryfield a possible. Jazzy and Rahiyah have run so much faster than
everything bar Dream Rush I prefer betting both of them to siding with
the
favourite.
Recommended bets;
1 point win Jazzy
1 point win Rahiyah
THE BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE TURF
STRIKE THE DEAL 36
ACHILL ISLAND 34
THE LEOPARD 33
PREACHIN MAN 31
COWBOY CAL 30
CHEROKEE TRAINGLE 29
DOMESTIC FUND 29
NOWNOWNOW 29
OLD MAN BUCK 29
AUSTINTATIOUS 27
CANNONBALL 27
GLOBETROTTER 27
MORAL COMPASS 27
OVEREXTENDED 27
PRUSSIAN 27
SHORE DO 27
TEXAS FEVER 27
WHY TONTO 27
GIO PONTI 26
HORSE DOCTOR 25
YOUR ROUND 25
ACHILL ISLAND
Dam has produced two G2 winning Australian sprinters and a useful Irish
5f
winner. Showed he stayed with good second in Royal Lodge last time.
But
strongest indicator of Breeders' Cup success is his Tipperary win where
he showed
he could handle a tight turf, firm ground and the slow early pace he
will
likely encounter here. Big chance against this weak field.
AUSTINTATIOUS
Still a maiden but ran really well to take second to what may well be a
Group 1 winner in a slow run but red hot Nemwarket maiden over this trip
last
time. Got caught a bit flat-footed when pace quickened there but kept
on really
well, showing a nice flowing stride. Good enough to at least place in
what
is probably a weaker race here.
CANNONBALL
Lost dreadful Claiming race before winning weak maiden restricted to
horses
bred in New York. Too slow to consider.
CHEROKEE TRIANGLE
Exhibited steering problems in first three starts but improved markedly
to
win Stakes race when fitted with a leather burr on his bit which
apparently
gives his rider more control. Always crusing in that race and sprinted
away
when set down in the homsetraight to score by ten lengths. It was
noticeable
though that he was deliberately kept wide of the other runners in a
small field
and never had to alter his path. I'm still dubious about his ability to
be
steered around other runners. Needs improvement to match the Europeans
but
might just do it seeing how much he had in hand last time.
COWBOY CAL
Set strong pace and kept on really well to win maiden impressively when
switched to turf and stepped up to a mile last time. A good deal more
is needed
here though.
DOMESTIC FUND
A brother to four time G1 winner Refuse To Bend and half brother to
Melbourne Cup victor Media Puzzle. Won the only time he raced on the
fast surface
those two favoured. Second on much softer ground in G2 Beresford last
time.
Jockey Pat Smullen predicted he'd develop into a mile and a half horse
after
that run, so the slow pace and sprint finish around this tight track may
not
play to his strengths. Still, you have to consider him in a race the
Europeans dominate.
GIO PONTI
Produced tremendous burst of speed to win slow run unlisted stakes on
turf
last time. Unbeaten in two starts but my read of his sectional times
suggests
he's unlikely to immprove enough to trouble the Europeans.
GLOBETROTTER
Fading winner of maiden on Tapeta (similar to Polytrack) at minor track
before winning G3 on Polytrack by a head. Will probably act on turf but
needs tp
improve a lot to feature.
HORSE DOCTOR
Lost two maidens on turf before winning one when switched to Polytrack.
Distant third to Texas Fever in Polytrack G3 after that. Looks
outclassed.
MORAL COMPASS
Won at third attempt when making all to win truly run Belmont turf
maiden in
slow time driven out. Can't see shy he should improve enough to feature
here.
NOWNOWNOW
Looked unlucky when second to Gio Ponti last time. Had run faster than
that
one when winning minor stakes race on turf debut before that. Big, good
looking sort, always stays on strong. May benefit from stronger pace
produced
by European presence and might just place.
PREACHIN MAN
Been showing seriously early speed while running well over 5-6f on dirt.
No
obvious reason why he should handle turf or stay this far.
PRUSSIAN
Impressive all the way winner of turf maiden at big Saratoga meeting
before
winning same turf G3 that Dreaming Of Anna took last year before winning
BC
Juvenile Fillies. Looks the main US threat along with The Leopard.
TEXAS FEVER
Scrambled home in weak looking renewal of G3 Kentucky Juvenile Cup last
time. Yet to run on anything but Polytrack. The clock says he's not up
to it.
THE LEOPARD
Cost Coolmore $1.2 million at Florida 2YO sale in March. Bit surprising
they kept him in US because his dam was third in the Irish 1000 Guineas
Trial
and her dam is a sister to four smart turf performers including the top
turf
sire Caerleon. Won one of America's few Graded juvenile stakes on turf
last
time, setting a very slow pace and then sprinting the last 2.5f in just
27.8
seconds. Looks the only serious threat to the Europeans. But still looks
immature physically.
STRIKE THE DEAL
Be wary of assuming this horse won't stay simply because he failed to do
so
at Doncaster. He pulled way too hard for his head that day. Here the
very
tight turns and resultant crowding will probably stop him from doing
that.
He's been finishing very strongly to win and place in some of the top 6f
2YO
races. US punters will be happy to bet that such a horse can 'stretch
out' to
a mile in a slow run race around tight turns like this. Major chance.
WHY TONTO
Narrow winner of unlisted turf stakes last time in moderate time. Now
unbeaten in two turf starts but needs to improve massively to feature on
clock.
YOUR ROUND
Beaten by several US runners last two. No logical reason he should
improve
enough to beat them or Europeans here.
CONCLUSION
Very few American two year olds run on turf, and virtually none of the
good
ones. That's why there are only a handful of Graded juvenile Stakes run
on
turf in American and no Grade 1's. So it's inevitable that this new
Breeders'
Cup race is a total mis-match which the Europeans will probably always
dominate.
Perming the European runners in a Trifecta is, in my humble opinion, the
best bet I've ever seen at a Breeders' Cup. I'd be gobsmacked if an
American
runner placed, and the Trifecta on the US pari-mutuel could easily pay
100-1.
If I were a UK or Irish bookie I would refuse to take the bet, so you
may
have to shop around to get it on.
Recommended bets;
TRIFECT PERM at US Pari Mutuel odds
ACHILL ISLAND
AUSTINTATIOUS
DOMESTIC FUND
STRIKE THE DEAL