some exacta stuff

[formula_2002]

EXACTA STUFF

1 represents the favorite
2 represents the 2nd choice in the betting
14,000 races reviewed

½ exacta win 10% of the time

2/1 exacta wins 7% of the time

The 1 wins 34% of the time and places 20% of the time for a total of 54%.

The 2 wins 21% of the time and places 20% of the time for a total of 42%.

.The most the 1 or the 2 would be included in the exacta combination woud be 34%+20% or 54%

If you looked at the 1 winning 34% of the time and the 2 placing 20% of the time
One could assume that 35% X 20%, or 7%, would be the probability for the ½ exacta.
In this sample the ½ won 10% of the time.

Average winning odds= 1.40-1. True win %=(1/2.4)*.84= .35%
Average 2nd choice odds=3.05-1. True win%=(1/4.05)*.84=.21%
.84 is the take out adjustment.

I would appreciate any comments. This week ends reports will be based on this kind of stuff.

[BillW]

Originally posted by formula_2002


1/2 exacta win 10% of the time

2/1 exacta wins 7% of the time

The 1 wins 34% of the time and places 20% of the time for a total of 54%.

The 2 wins 21% of the time and places 20% of the time for a total of 42%.

.The most the 1 or the 2 would be included in the exacta combination woud be 34%+20% or 54%



If your last piece of data means that either the 1 or the 2 appears in the winning exacta 54% of the time, I am missing something.

The 1 appears in the top 2 slots 54% of the time
The 2 appears in the top 2 slots 41% of the time for a total of 95%.
Take out the common occurance of both the 1 and 2 (10%+7%) and that leaves the 1 or the 2 in the exacta 78% of the time.

Where did I go wrong :confused:

Bill

[hdcper]

No where Bill, you are totally right!!!!

Hdcper

[formula_2002]

lets try it this way

The 1 wins 4710 times

The 1 places 2962 times
The 2 wins 2801 times

The 2 places 2733 times

Then in any single race the maximum occurrence for the 1 or 2 finishing in the top two positions is;

The 1 can win 4710 (it cannot place) and 2 can place 2733 times (it cannot win)

That combination represents 54 % of the 13936 races.
Any single race

or perhaps;

X= any horse other then the 1 and 2

Combination number of occurrence max.
1x 4710 4710
x1 2962
2x 2801
x2 2733 2733
12 1358
21 949

Joe M

[formula_2002]

billw you are correct .The 1 or the 2 is involved in the exacta 78% of the time.


1 2 x
1 - 1358 3312
2 949 - 1956
x 1852 1338 3007
sum 2801 2696 8275 13772


1/2 1358 10%
1/x 3312 24%
2/1 949 7%
2/x 1956 14%
x/1 1852 13%
x/2 1338 10%
10765 78%

[formula_2002]

It appears that the 5000+ picks referred to on my web page

will return a good profit in the exacta when used under the post time favorite..

This will increase the overall collecting on a bet by and additional 10%.

I'll have a more comprhensive study on this by nexyt week end.
Send me an e-mail if you are interested.

Joe M

http://globalwinningpicks.homestead.com/GLOBALWINNINGPICKSX.html