winningponies
10-25-2007, 05:13 PM
Here is our analysis of the 11 Breeders' Cup 2007 races. It seems as though the trend of big payoffs in Breeders' Cup races should continue this year. Please note: Our top picks listed here are primarily based on a Fast main track and Firm turf course. However, there is a good possibility it will be wet at Monmouth this weekend. On the prediction forms on our site, we offer full analysis for all possible track conditions (as well as complete past performance data for all entries). Good luck to everyone in the "other" Fall Classic!
10/26 Race#8 (BC Filly and Mare Sprint)
Top Picks: (3) Dream Rush 2/1, (7) La Traviata 5/2, (1) Miss Macy Sue 6/1
This sprint seems to be between Dream Rush and La Traviata. Both of these fillies have lots of speed, with the edge going to Dream Rush based on class. Dream Rush has most recently won two Grade 1 stakes back to back. Also, I like the fact that they are both 3 year olds. La Traviata is undefeated and may be good enough to beat Dream Rush. She is coming on the heels of some huge workouts at Keeneland for Patrick Biancone and Julien Leparoux is back in the irons for the big money.
10/26 Race#9 (BC Juvenile Turf)
Top Picks: (9) Prussian 3/1, (3) The Leopard 8/1, (6) Gio Ponti 8/1
Prussian looms huge. 2 for 2 on the lawn, best class in the field, and tremendous workouts on the deep Saratoga training track. Will be the one to beat. The Leopard is fast enough to stay with Prussian. From Todd Pletcher's barn (who is looking for his first win at a Breeders' Cup meet), will not be a surprise if he runs big enough for a win. Gio Ponti cannot be faulted as he is a perfect 2 for 2 on the lawn for a smart outfit.
10/26 Race#10 (BC Dirt Mile)
Top Picks: (1) Discreet Cat 2/1, (6) Gottcha Gold 8/1
Others Mentioned: (7) Park Avenue Ball 15/1, (4) Forefathers 20/1, (5) High Finance 5/1
Discreet Cat strictly the one to beat. Was a perfect 6 for 6 last year. Came back with first start in Dubai and may have needed a couple of starts. As the favorite in the Vosburg, had a bad break which may have cost him. Blew 2 huge workouts for this race and Garrett Gomez stays aboard which should be a winning ride. Gottcha Gold, the hometown kid, has been perfect in last two with Chuck Lopez; hoping they can hold on the front end here. Will have to battle with Discreet Cat in the homestretch. Park Avenue Ball, Forefathers and High Finance should be used in the gimmicks.
10/27 Race#4 (BC Juvenile Fillies)
Top Picks: (10) Proud Spell 5/1, (11) Zee Zee 30/1, (5) Irish Smoke 8/1
Others Mentioned: (4) Indian Blessing 3/1
Proud Spell came into NY to try out some tougher fillies and had no trouble beating them. She was eased at the finish; we think she is better than her last. She is bred to get the distance and should win this in a romp. Zee Zee is trying the dirt for the first time and may be versatile enough to handle it, as her latest Belmont workout indicates. Should be a huge overlay. Irish Smoke bobbled badly at the start in her last race and may have not liked the Polytrack. She is from a speed sire and has distance limitations. As with her last race, may struggle with this distance. Indian Blessing is a talented 2 for 2 filly. Taking on tougher, but may be this good.
10/27 Race#5 (BC Juvenile)
Top Picks: (10) Tale of Ekati 7/2, (2) War Pass 5/2, (7) Pyro 6/1
Others Mentioned: (3) Kodiak Kowboy 8/1, (1) Z Humor 12/1
Tale of Ekati could have been undefeated if he had a clean start in the Grade 2 Sanford. Rested since July and used the Futurity as a tune-up race for this start. We think the further he goes, the better he gets and this distance is made to order for his closing style. War Pass is undefeated in 3 starts and will be the speed of this affair. May hang in for a share. Pyro always closes and may get closest to Tale of Ekati in the final furlong. Kodiak Kowboy tested Tale of Ekati last time he met him and found him to be more than he could handle. The extra distance will not help. Z Humor is adding blinkers and may improve his placing.
10/27 Race#6 (BC Filly and Mare Turf)
Top Picks: (6) Lahudood 10/1, (5) Wait a While 4/1, (3) Nashoba's Key 3/1
Others Mentioned: (2) Honey Ryder 9/2, (10) Arravale 30/1
Lahudood came from Europe and finally settled in this country and showed what she could do in the Flower Bowl Invitational at Belmont Park. She appears to dislike soft courses, but we think that Alan Garcia knows how to push the right button. Wait a While is Todd Pletcher's better threat at taking this and will be the main contention to the top choice. Nashoba's Key is undefeated in 7 career starts (4 on the turf), and may be this good. Honey Ryder and Arravale should be used in your Trifectas and Superfectas.
10/27 Race#7 (BC Sprint)
Top Picks: (2) Midnight Lute 2/1, (1) Smokey Stover 7/2, (8) Benny the Bull 6/1
Others Mentioned: (6) Commentator 12/1
Midnight Lute ran a huge race in the Forego (Grade 1), coming back off a five month layoff. Needs time between his races and is blowing some sensational workouts for Baffert. Will be very dangerous. Smokey Stover beat cheaper here at Monmouth in his last race and is also coming back from a short freshening. Benny the Bull attempted to reel in Midnight Lute in his last race. He may get a little closer off that tightener, but Midnight Lute should be better as well. Use Commentator in Trifectas and Superfectas.
10/27 Race#8 (BC Mile)
Top Picks: (9) Nobiz Like Shobiz 8/1, (8) Kip Deville 6/1, (3) After Market 7/2
Others Mentioned: (6) Trippi's Storm 8/1
Nobiz Like Shobiz has a huge class edge over the rest. Undefeated in 3 turf starts; will be very hard to beat. One of the few sureshot plays in this Breeders' Cup series. Also love the fact that he is one of the few 3 year olds in this affair. Kip Deville is very consistent; always runs his usual good race. After Market is on the improve. Ran a huge race in the Kelso. So did Trippi's Storm, who is possibly coming back to his best distance.
10/27 Race#9 (BC Distaff)
Top Picks: (6) Bear Now 15/1, (8) Octave 10/1
Others Mentioned: (4) Ginger Punch 7/2, (11) Unbridled Belle 9/2, (7) Lear's Princess 6/1
Bear Now is another sharp 3 year old in beautiful shape coming into this for Baker Reade. Has lots of speed and has shown to be able to carry it to 1 1/16 miles. This will be her first time at 9 furlongs but it won't be a surprise if she wires this field. Octave immensely improved for Pletcher, was beaten by the top choice last time they met in the Cotillon Handicap. May be helped by the added 1/16 of a mile against the top choice. Looks like a sureshot 2 fillies race. Use Ginger Punch, Unbridled Belle and Lear's Princess for your Trifectas and Superfectas.
10/27 Race#10 (BC Turf)
Top Picks: (7) Dylan Thomas 7/5, (6) English Channel 5/2, (3) Better Talk Now 9/2
Others Mentioned: (2) Red Rocks 7/2
Dylan Thomas has a huge class advantage, helped with the purse from the Arc de Triomphe in France. He was here last year at Belmont in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He is not bred for the main track and may have run down in that race. Strictly a grass horse, he has run well on a firm turf and will be a monster if the turf comes up on the soft side. Distance of a mile and a half is no problem and he will be hard to beat. English Channel and Better Talk Now have the best shot at the top choice. Red Rocks may land a share.
10/27 Race#11 (BC Classic)
Top Picks: (1) Lawyer Ron 5/2, (4) Curlin 3/1
Others Mentioned: (2) Street Sense 3/1, (7) Diamond Stripes 15/1, (3) Any Given Saturday 4/1, (6) Awesome Gem 30/1
Lawyer Ron and Curlin will renew that rivalry from the Jockey Gold Cup and may be this close in ability. Pletcher wants nothing more than to win the Classic with Lawyer Ron, but Curlin may come up a spoiler once again. Street Sense, Diamond Stripes, Any Given Saturday, and Awesome Gem should be used to collect on your Trifectas and Superfectas.
10/26 Race#8 (BC Filly and Mare Sprint)
Top Picks: (3) Dream Rush 2/1, (7) La Traviata 5/2, (1) Miss Macy Sue 6/1
This sprint seems to be between Dream Rush and La Traviata. Both of these fillies have lots of speed, with the edge going to Dream Rush based on class. Dream Rush has most recently won two Grade 1 stakes back to back. Also, I like the fact that they are both 3 year olds. La Traviata is undefeated and may be good enough to beat Dream Rush. She is coming on the heels of some huge workouts at Keeneland for Patrick Biancone and Julien Leparoux is back in the irons for the big money.
10/26 Race#9 (BC Juvenile Turf)
Top Picks: (9) Prussian 3/1, (3) The Leopard 8/1, (6) Gio Ponti 8/1
Prussian looms huge. 2 for 2 on the lawn, best class in the field, and tremendous workouts on the deep Saratoga training track. Will be the one to beat. The Leopard is fast enough to stay with Prussian. From Todd Pletcher's barn (who is looking for his first win at a Breeders' Cup meet), will not be a surprise if he runs big enough for a win. Gio Ponti cannot be faulted as he is a perfect 2 for 2 on the lawn for a smart outfit.
10/26 Race#10 (BC Dirt Mile)
Top Picks: (1) Discreet Cat 2/1, (6) Gottcha Gold 8/1
Others Mentioned: (7) Park Avenue Ball 15/1, (4) Forefathers 20/1, (5) High Finance 5/1
Discreet Cat strictly the one to beat. Was a perfect 6 for 6 last year. Came back with first start in Dubai and may have needed a couple of starts. As the favorite in the Vosburg, had a bad break which may have cost him. Blew 2 huge workouts for this race and Garrett Gomez stays aboard which should be a winning ride. Gottcha Gold, the hometown kid, has been perfect in last two with Chuck Lopez; hoping they can hold on the front end here. Will have to battle with Discreet Cat in the homestretch. Park Avenue Ball, Forefathers and High Finance should be used in the gimmicks.
10/27 Race#4 (BC Juvenile Fillies)
Top Picks: (10) Proud Spell 5/1, (11) Zee Zee 30/1, (5) Irish Smoke 8/1
Others Mentioned: (4) Indian Blessing 3/1
Proud Spell came into NY to try out some tougher fillies and had no trouble beating them. She was eased at the finish; we think she is better than her last. She is bred to get the distance and should win this in a romp. Zee Zee is trying the dirt for the first time and may be versatile enough to handle it, as her latest Belmont workout indicates. Should be a huge overlay. Irish Smoke bobbled badly at the start in her last race and may have not liked the Polytrack. She is from a speed sire and has distance limitations. As with her last race, may struggle with this distance. Indian Blessing is a talented 2 for 2 filly. Taking on tougher, but may be this good.
10/27 Race#5 (BC Juvenile)
Top Picks: (10) Tale of Ekati 7/2, (2) War Pass 5/2, (7) Pyro 6/1
Others Mentioned: (3) Kodiak Kowboy 8/1, (1) Z Humor 12/1
Tale of Ekati could have been undefeated if he had a clean start in the Grade 2 Sanford. Rested since July and used the Futurity as a tune-up race for this start. We think the further he goes, the better he gets and this distance is made to order for his closing style. War Pass is undefeated in 3 starts and will be the speed of this affair. May hang in for a share. Pyro always closes and may get closest to Tale of Ekati in the final furlong. Kodiak Kowboy tested Tale of Ekati last time he met him and found him to be more than he could handle. The extra distance will not help. Z Humor is adding blinkers and may improve his placing.
10/27 Race#6 (BC Filly and Mare Turf)
Top Picks: (6) Lahudood 10/1, (5) Wait a While 4/1, (3) Nashoba's Key 3/1
Others Mentioned: (2) Honey Ryder 9/2, (10) Arravale 30/1
Lahudood came from Europe and finally settled in this country and showed what she could do in the Flower Bowl Invitational at Belmont Park. She appears to dislike soft courses, but we think that Alan Garcia knows how to push the right button. Wait a While is Todd Pletcher's better threat at taking this and will be the main contention to the top choice. Nashoba's Key is undefeated in 7 career starts (4 on the turf), and may be this good. Honey Ryder and Arravale should be used in your Trifectas and Superfectas.
10/27 Race#7 (BC Sprint)
Top Picks: (2) Midnight Lute 2/1, (1) Smokey Stover 7/2, (8) Benny the Bull 6/1
Others Mentioned: (6) Commentator 12/1
Midnight Lute ran a huge race in the Forego (Grade 1), coming back off a five month layoff. Needs time between his races and is blowing some sensational workouts for Baffert. Will be very dangerous. Smokey Stover beat cheaper here at Monmouth in his last race and is also coming back from a short freshening. Benny the Bull attempted to reel in Midnight Lute in his last race. He may get a little closer off that tightener, but Midnight Lute should be better as well. Use Commentator in Trifectas and Superfectas.
10/27 Race#8 (BC Mile)
Top Picks: (9) Nobiz Like Shobiz 8/1, (8) Kip Deville 6/1, (3) After Market 7/2
Others Mentioned: (6) Trippi's Storm 8/1
Nobiz Like Shobiz has a huge class edge over the rest. Undefeated in 3 turf starts; will be very hard to beat. One of the few sureshot plays in this Breeders' Cup series. Also love the fact that he is one of the few 3 year olds in this affair. Kip Deville is very consistent; always runs his usual good race. After Market is on the improve. Ran a huge race in the Kelso. So did Trippi's Storm, who is possibly coming back to his best distance.
10/27 Race#9 (BC Distaff)
Top Picks: (6) Bear Now 15/1, (8) Octave 10/1
Others Mentioned: (4) Ginger Punch 7/2, (11) Unbridled Belle 9/2, (7) Lear's Princess 6/1
Bear Now is another sharp 3 year old in beautiful shape coming into this for Baker Reade. Has lots of speed and has shown to be able to carry it to 1 1/16 miles. This will be her first time at 9 furlongs but it won't be a surprise if she wires this field. Octave immensely improved for Pletcher, was beaten by the top choice last time they met in the Cotillon Handicap. May be helped by the added 1/16 of a mile against the top choice. Looks like a sureshot 2 fillies race. Use Ginger Punch, Unbridled Belle and Lear's Princess for your Trifectas and Superfectas.
10/27 Race#10 (BC Turf)
Top Picks: (7) Dylan Thomas 7/5, (6) English Channel 5/2, (3) Better Talk Now 9/2
Others Mentioned: (2) Red Rocks 7/2
Dylan Thomas has a huge class advantage, helped with the purse from the Arc de Triomphe in France. He was here last year at Belmont in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He is not bred for the main track and may have run down in that race. Strictly a grass horse, he has run well on a firm turf and will be a monster if the turf comes up on the soft side. Distance of a mile and a half is no problem and he will be hard to beat. English Channel and Better Talk Now have the best shot at the top choice. Red Rocks may land a share.
10/27 Race#11 (BC Classic)
Top Picks: (1) Lawyer Ron 5/2, (4) Curlin 3/1
Others Mentioned: (2) Street Sense 3/1, (7) Diamond Stripes 15/1, (3) Any Given Saturday 4/1, (6) Awesome Gem 30/1
Lawyer Ron and Curlin will renew that rivalry from the Jockey Gold Cup and may be this close in ability. Pletcher wants nothing more than to win the Classic with Lawyer Ron, but Curlin may come up a spoiler once again. Street Sense, Diamond Stripes, Any Given Saturday, and Awesome Gem should be used to collect on your Trifectas and Superfectas.