My Breeder's Cup Day Analysis

[Jeff P]

Breeder's Cup Day is like no other day in racing. The fields are big and contention runs deep. With very few exceptions every horse in every race is there for one reason only: to get the glory for their human connections. Media hype surrounds certain horses. And casual fans pour lots of money into the pools. This combination of factors almost always creates great betting opportunities for the savvy player. IMHO, this is racing the way it was meant to be.

I put together a database containing only Breeder's Cup Day race cards for the years 2000-2006... the seven most recent years of history on Breeder's Cup Day. I posted some of the more relevant things I discovered in JustRalph's "Ok, what the hell is wrong with this board?, why no discussion?" thread on my own message board. You can see the stats and the detail starting with post #18 here:
http://www.jcapper.ajthau.com/index.php?showtopic=964

IMHO, there are three really interesting discoveries in those Breeder's Cup Day stats:

1. Contention runs so deep that it throws the betting public off. They bet the races on Breeder's Cup Day in an unbalanced manner. Favorites are overbet and outsiders are underbet. For the past seven years if you had bet a flat $2.00 to win on every Breeder's Cup Day starter you would have broken even. If you had bet a flat $2.00 to win on every starter at odds of 9-1 or more you would have shown a profit (1.18 roi.) This pattern is almost the exact opposite of what you'll find on a typical midweek race card.

2. The one single factor most overlooked and underbet by the betting public on Breeder's Cup Day cards has been FORM. Horses with a JCapper FormCycle=1 won over 85 percent of all races in the sample... and at greatly inflated win mutuels.

3. The one single factor most overused and overbet by the betting public on Breeder's Cup Day cards has been Speed Figures... especially final time based speed figures. Horses ranked first in their fields in categories like Bris Last Race Speed Figure, Bris Best of last 3, Bris Best of last 10, JCapper Weighted Figure, JCapper CFA did win their fair share of the races - but did so at greatly deflated win mutuels.

Taking these three key discoveries into account I have created two fairly simple Breeder's Cup Day UDMs... one for North American Horses and one for Foreign Horses. In keeping with my validation principle I developed and tweaked both UDMs using the oldest three Breeder's Cup Day cards in the database and then validated them going forward on the four newer Breeder's Cup Day cards.

Here they are:
UDM Definition: BC_Special
Divisor: # UDM Def Divisor: 999
Bet Instructions: 5-1
Surface Req: *ANY Surface*
Distance Req: *ANY Distance*

CFA: MinRank= 3 MaxRank= 12
MinVal= -999 MaxVal= 999
MinGap= -999 MaxGap= 999
Days Last Start: MinVal= 20 MaxVal= 64
Lifetime Starts: MinVal= 4 MaxVal= 999
Running Style: ALL

Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999
Filters Applied: FCYCLEMAX01-2CALLLENMAX05-FORX-<ALL<NEG17-LRBFGAPNEGMIN015-

Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*)
From Index File: C:\BreedersCupHistory\pl_BreedersCup_00-06.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 1132.10 655.80 510.30
Bet -452.00 -452.00 -452.00
Gain 680.10 203.80 58.30

Wins 33 52 70
Plays 226 226 226
PCT .1460 .2301 .3097

ROI 2.5046 1.4509 1.1290
Avg Mut 34.31 12.61 7.29


By: 21 TheOdds

>=Min <Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.50 1.00 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000
1.00 1.50 0.80 4.00 1.2000 1 2 .5000
1.50 2.00 6.00 10.00 1.6000 3 5 .6000
2.00 2.50 0.00 6.00 1.0000 1 3 .3333
2.50 3.00 -12.00 12.00 0.0000 0 6 .0000
3.00 3.50 -3.20 12.00 0.7333 1 6 .1667
3.50 4.00 -8.60 18.00 0.5222 1 9 .1111
4.00 4.50 -12.00 12.00 0.0000 0 6 .0000
4.50 5.00 -8.00 8.00 0.0000 0 4 .0000
5.00 5.50 0.20 24.00 1.0083 2 12 .1667
5.50 6.00 12.20 14.00 1.8714 2 7 .2857
6.00 6.50 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000
6.50 7.00 7.80 8.00 1.9750 1 4 .2500
7.00 7.50 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000
7.50 8.00 -8.00 8.00 0.0000 0 4 .0000
8.00 8.50 -10.00 10.00 0.0000 0 5 .0000
8.50 9.00 -14.00 14.00 0.0000 0 7 .0000
9.00 9999.00 738.90 282.00 3.6202 21 141 .1489



Ending BankRoll: $7,239.80
Starting BankRoll: $500.00
High BankRoll: $7,741.30
Low BankRoll: $423.00
Bet Percentage: 0.0100
Max Allowable Bet: 500.00


and
UDM Definition: BC_FOREIGNER
Divisor: # UDM Def Divisor: 999
Bet Instructions: 5-1
Surface Req: *ANY Surface*
Distance Req: *ANY Distance*

CFA: MinRank= 3 MaxRank= 12
MinVal= -999 MaxVal= 999
MinGap= -999 MaxGap= 999
Days Last Start: MinVal= 20 MaxVal= 69
Lifetime Starts: MinVal= 4 MaxVal= 999
Running Style: ALL


Data Window Settings:
Divisor = 999
Filters Applied: FCYCLEMAX01-FOR+-

Surface: (ALL*) Distance: (All*)
From Index File: C:\BreedersCupHistory\pl_BreedersCup_00-06.txt)


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 217.60 116.40 103.70
Bet -96.00 -96.00 -96.00
Gain 121.60 20.40 7.70

Wins 10 13 19
Plays 48 48 48
PCT .2083 .2708 .3958

ROI 2.2667 1.2125 1.0802
Avg Mut 21.76 8.95 5.46



By: 21 TheOdds

>=Min <Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
0.50 1.00 1.60 6.00 1.2667 2 3 .6667
1.00 1.50 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000
1.50 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
2.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
2.50 3.00 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000
3.00 3.50 -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000
3.50 4.00 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000
4.00 4.50 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000
4.50 5.00 5.20 6.00 1.8667 1 3 .3333
5.00 5.50 10.60 2.00 6.3000 1 1 1.0000
5.50 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
6.00 6.50 10.00 4.00 3.5000 1 2 .5000
6.50 7.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
7.00 7.50 8.40 8.00 2.0500 1 4 .2500
7.50 8.00 -2.00 2.00 0.0000 0 1 .0000
8.00 8.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000
8.50 9.00 15.60 4.00 4.9000 1 2 .5000
9.00 9999.00 88.20 48.00 2.8375 3 24 .1250



Ending BankRoll: $832.60
Starting BankRoll: $500.00
High BankRoll: $875.80
Low BankRoll: $500.00
Bet Percentage: 0.0100
Max Bet Allowable: 500.00


to be continued...
-jp
.

[Jeff P]

Q. So which horses are tagged by these two UDMs on the 2007 Breeder's Cup Day card this coming Saturday?
A. Here is what my own text Report (as of Thurs afternoon) (I'll update it for scratches if I have time) looks like:

10-27-2007

MTH R2 6F D 11:25 EASTERN N 155.56
#2 MISS TIZZY/VELASQUEZ CORNELIO/JOLLEY LEROY/ BC_Special 30 [5-1]
#3 LAURAS LAST MUSIC/VELAZQUEZ J R(A++T)/PLETCHER TODD A/ BC_Special 6 [5-1]
#6 SINDY WITH AN S/BAZE M C/MITCHELL MIKE/ BC_Special 3.5 [5-1]
#8 MARINA BALLERINA/LEZCANO JOSE/MARGOLIS STEPHEN R/ BC_Special 15 [5-1]
#11 COCO BELLE/GOMEZ G K/SADLER JOHN W/ BC_Special 6 [5-1]
#12 INTENTIONAL FEVER/DOMINGUEZ R A/DUTROW ANTHONY W/ BC_Special 12 [5-1]


MTH R3 6F D 11:55 EASTERN N 129.79
#1 APPEALING SPRING/COA E M(A+-T)/BREEN KELLY J/ BC_Special 15 [5-1]
#6 DOUBLE ACTION/BAZE M C/HOLLENDORFER JERRY/ BC_Special 3.5 [5-1]
#9 SILVER SOURCE/VELASQUEZ CORNELIO/DUTROW RICHARD E/ BC_Special 10 [5-1]


MTH R6 11F T 1:55 EASTERN G 216.31
#3 NASHOBAS KEY/TALAMO JOSEPH/GAINES CARLA/ BC_Special 3 [5-1]
#5 WAIT A WHILE/GOMEZ G K/PLETCHER TODD A/ BC_Special 4 [5-1]
#9 DANZON/LEPAROUX JULIEN R/PARISEL FRANCOIS/ BC_Special 12 [5-1]
#11 SIMPLY PERFECT/MURTAGH JOHN P/NOSEDA JEREMY/ BS_FOREIGNER 15 [5-1]
#12 PRECIOUS KITTEN/BEJARANO R(A-+t)/FRANKEL ROBERT J/ BC_Special 30 [5-1]


MTH R7 6F D 2:35 EASTERN G 117.07
#1 SMOKEY STOVER/GRYDER A T/GILCHRIST GREG/ BC_Special 3.5 [5-1]


MTH R8 8F T 3:20 EASTERN G 257.58
#1 REBELLION/COA E M(A+-T)/MOTION H GRAHAM/ BC_Special 50 [5-1]
#3 AFTER MARKET/SOLIS A(-+T)/SHIRREFFS JOHN/ BC_Special 3.5 [5-1]
#7 COSMONAUT/LEPAROUX JULIEN R/PARISEL FRANCOIS/ BC_Special 15 [5-1]
#9 NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ/VELAZQUEZ J R(A++T)/TAGG BARCLAY/ BC_Special 8 [5-1]
#12 PURIM/THERIOT H J II/PROCTOR THOMAS F/ BC_Special 20 [5-1]
#13 EXCELLENT ART/MURTAGH JOHN P/O'BRIEN AIDAN P/ BS_FOREIGNER 3 [5-1]
#14 REMARKABLE NEWS/DOMINGUEZ R A/PENNA ANGEL JR/ BC_Special 12 [5-1]


MTH R9 9F D 4:05 EASTERN G 173.37
#1 BALANCE/ESPINOZA V(A-+T)/HOFMANS DAVID/ BC_Special 20 [5-1]
#2 PROP ME UP/BRAVO J(+-T)/SACCO GREGORY D/ BC_Special 50 [5-1]
#4 GINGER PUNCH/BEJARANO R(A-+t)/FRANKEL ROBERT J/ BC_Special 3.5 [5-1]
#5 LADY JOANNE/BOREL C H(--t)/NAFZGER CARL A/ BC_Special 6 [5-1]
#6 BEAR NOW/BAIRD J/BAKER READE/ BC_Special 15 [5-1]
#7 LEARS PRINCESS/COA E M(A+-T)/MCLAUGHLIN KIARAN P/ BC_Special 6 [5-1]
#8 OCTAVE/GOMEZ G K/PLETCHER TODD A/ BC_Special 10 [5-1]


MTH R11 10F D 5:35 EASTERN G 114.34
#2 STREET SENSE/BOREL C H(--t)/NAFZGER CARL A/ BC_Special 3 [5-1]
#3 ANY GIVEN SATURDAY/GOMEZ G K/PLETCHER TODD A/ BC_Special 4 [5-1]
#6 AWESOME GEM/FLORES D R/DOLLASE CRAIG/ BC_Special 30 [5-1]
#8 HARD SPUN/PINO M G/JONES J LARRY/ BC_Special 8 [5-1]
#9 TIAGO/SMITH M E/SHIRREFFS JOHN/ BC_Special 12 [5-1]
Here is a link to my own HTML Report:
http://www.JCapper.com/BC2007.html

You can make the argument that a shotgun approach like this really isn't handicapping at all. Be my guest.

This Saturday I'm going to do something completely different than what 99% of everybody else is going to do. I'm not going to try to handicap these races any further than I already have. Instead I'm going to let the public over-handicap these races for me. I will then try to capitalize on their mistakes. IMHO, these horses are close enough to being contenders that I will back any of them to win at 5-1 or higher and sit on my hands if the odds are less than 5-1.

I can hear some of you laughing already... 5-1 you say? Jeff, have you completely lost it? Some of these horses should be 40-1!!!

The only thing I can tell you is that I'll come back after the races and post a recap.

Best of luck to everyone.


-jp

.

[dav4463]

Breeder's Cup: Here is the approach I'm going to try this year. Any suggestions on how to improve on it?

I plan to study the race a little bit and try to eliminate 1/3 or 1/4 of the field. After I eliminate 3,4,or 5 in each race, I then play to win any horse over 14-1. I also play them in an exacta wheel (top and bottom) with any horse(s) that are 4-1 or higher.

[Greyfox]

Thanks Jeff. Good luck.
On B.C. Day, I consider "Shotgunning" a definite strategy to consider. :ThmbUp:

[bigmack]

The one single factor most overlooked and underbet by the betting public on Breeder's Cup Day cards has been FORM. Horses with a JCapper FormCycle=1 won over 85 percent of all races in the sample... and at greatly inflated win mutuels.


Obrigado, JP.

All the best.

[michiken]

Jeff,

For those of us that do not know your software reports, can you elaborate on what the + and yellow highlights mean?

[Jeff P]

Jeff,

For those of us that do not know your software reports, can you elaborate on what the + and yellow highlights mean?
UDM Nodes
The HTML Report contains expandable/collapsible nodes for each horse selected by a UDM. The nodes are created on the fly whenenver a Calc Races routine is run. If you right click anywhere on the page and select "view source" you'll see that the state of the nodes are controlled with a javascript function.

When the HTML Report is first rendered all of the nodes are in a collapsed state. Clicking on an individual "+" symbol causes the nodes for that horse to expand and display the name(s) of any UDMs that have selected that horse. At the very top of the page you'll find the characters "+ ALL" which when clicked on causes every node on the page to expand. Likewise clicking on the "-ALL" characters at the top of the page causes every node on the page to collapse.

Overlay Highlighting
The morning line odds are compared to the odds line generated by the program. A morning line odds ratio called MLOR3 is calculated...

MLOR3 = ML / OddsLine.

For horses designated as contenders (ranked 1st or 2nd in JPR, 1st in CPace) or selected by a UDM added by the user, when MLOR3 is greater than or equal to MLOR3 cutoffs set by the user on the System Definitions Screen then the <TR> (table row) on the page for that horse is highlighted in a background color selected by the user.

It may take a couple of paragraphs to explain in detail. But it's a really simple way of having the program tell me: "Umm... You might want to pay attention to this horse."



-jp

.

[bigmack]

Some good stuff you brought up with R2 & The Gang.

Crackerjack call on Nownownow :ThmbUp:

[shanta]

Great call on Nownownow Jeff!

[Jeff P]

Nownownow... That was fun. But that was yesterday. Today is a different day.

Some solid research... a well thought out unconventional plan... and for the first time in a long time a decision to post selections on a public forum... not just here but on my own site as well.

Results?

I need to go wash my face. Seems there's egg on it.

Thankfully, tomorrow is another day.


-jp

.

[the_fat_man]

Nownownow... That was fun. But that was yesterday. Today is a different day.

Jeff

Good Hit.

I thought Gio Ponti was better than NNN, even though (even) the novice tripper will tell you that the latter had the poorer trip when they met. Of course, I didn't like any of the others in the race, and thought Corinthian was a lock, and was thus able to make some money with a saver double.

But I digress....

What I find interesting about the game is that there's a sense of fairness to it; even though it appears to be unfair to us. If it 'evens' out for us, it should also even out for the horses (the 2 are clearly related).

Perfect example here: NNN gets a 3 wide trip, while GP sucks up inside, lacks room momentarily but when clear is able to hold the former off, last out. Bad luck for NNN.
Yesterday, GP is towards the rear, inside, with NNN behind him. When they're about to enter the stretch, NNN swings wide, and has a clear path to the wire. GP gets stuck behind a wall of horses (dumb move by Dominguez) and doesn't have room until the race is essentially over. (I haven't seen the headon for this race, and I could be wrong as to the severity of the traffic). Bad luck for GP.

I look forward to their 3rd meeting. :ThmbUp:


By no means think that I'm messing with you. This race brings up an issue that I find myself confronting more and more lately, with no satisfactory resolution. I realize that the objective is to CASH BETS, however, there's a psychological aspect we need to deal with as well. This is the need to have a good opinion, be good at what we do, etc.

There are trivially the following possibilities when it comes to the game:

1) we pick the 'right' horse and it wins
2) we pick the 'right' horse and it loses (bad luck or whatever)
3) we pick the 'wrong' horse and it loses
4) we pick the 'wrong' horse and it wins (bad luck of another horse)

Assuming a winning case:

If I pick the 'wrong' horse, I cash but I can't count on cashing under similar cicumstances consistently as I just got lucky this time.

If I pick the 'right' horse, I don't cash THIS time, as the result of BAD LUCK, but hope to be able to cash in the future, as my method/reasoning was on the money.

I take the money when I get lucky but I don't exactly walk away confident.

I deal with the tough beat when unlucky YET I don't exactly walk away confident here either. I reminded that luck plays a MAJOR role in my success and I don't particulary like it. The very small margin for error in the game is not something that instills confidence.

Of course, I could also just look at numbers and not bother watching replays (or reading the charts) and be completely oblivious to this dilemma. Numbers would take (a good deal of) the psychology out of the game.

[Jeff P]

Numbers would take (a good deal of) the psychology out of the game.I'm not sure I agree 100 percent with that in a strict sense.

No matter what methods you use to define a play psychology will always be involved. Trip notes, replays, DRF eye ball scan, a system you bought on ebay, software generated numbers, database research, physicality... all of those methods (and more) can get you to the point of having identified horses that are potential bets.

I'll make the argument that psychology plays a major role in the success or failure of what you do from there.

-jp

.

[the_fat_man]

I'm not sure I agree 100 percent with that in a strict sense.

No matter what methods you use to define a play psychology will always be involved. Trip notes, replays, DRF eye ball scan, a system you bought on ebay, software generated numbers, database research, physicality... all of those methods (and more) can get you to the point of having identified horses that are potential bets.

I'll make the argument that psychology plays a major role in the success or failure of what you do from there.

-jp

.

Psychology would be involved, in the sense meant, only AFTER one is aware that the win was a 'fortuitous' one.

For example, if you're following boxscores in order to calculate the batting average of a given player, you don't know when the batter was robbed of a hit any more than when he was lucky with a blop hit. The player, however, feels the full brunt of the psychology as he probably is impacted more by the slumps where he's hitting the ball well but repeatedy getting robbed, rather than those slumps where he's striking out most of the time.

[jonnielu]

Of course, I could also just look at numbers and not bother watching replays (or reading the charts) and be completely oblivious to this dilemma. Numbers would take (a good deal of) the psychology out of the game.

100% agreement, but don't leave out your excellent trip/physical skills.