Whats up with the Monmouth bias?

[samyn on the green]

Seems like a dead rail and an outside bias. Did they manipulate the track too much? I was anticipating the regular speed bias. Any thoughts?

[46zilzal]

Seems like a dead rail and an outside bias. Did they manipulate the track too much? I was anticipating the regular speed bias. Any thoughts?
I work the gate every weekend and ONE thing stands out when I watch the crew go over the course. The banking of the track, any dirt track, causes an accumulation of water moving from the crown to the drainage system set up insider the rail. It is not efficient and water accumulates before it moves by gravity. Walk on dirt that is soaked and dirt that is just muddy. The first creates suction when you lift your foot out of it, the other doesn't so much.

Nothing magical about it.

[Richie]

After watching the first 7 races today, I don't see it that way at all. I see the inside very good, up close even better :confused:

[wegoosewe]

i just checked the pdf charts and there was only one winner from post number 1 if it keeps up this way it must effect the way we were going to handicap sautrday.

[Vindicationbcjc02]

look at the charts from Wednesday. The one hole hit the board ONCE all day and so 2 hold hit the board ONCE. I will look at the charts later...

[chickenhead]

i just checked the pdf charts and there was only one winner from post number 1 if it keeps up this way it must effect the way we were going to handicap sautrday.

err...how many of them did you expect to win? Without handicapping the races first, and then watching them play out, and then trying to understand why things played out why they did, who won from where is pretty meaningless.

[njcurveball]

err...how many of them did you expect to win? Without handicapping the races first, and then watching them play out, and then trying to explain why things played out why they did, who won from where is pretty meaningless.


A voice of reason in the Wilderness! :ThmbUp:

I use to sit with Harness guys who said the outside was "live" if the 7 or 8 won the first race. Didn't matter the odds.

Pretty much the same as saying there is a speed bias when the winner pays $5.

[Bill Olmsted]

Track bias is a myth, like Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny.

[46zilzal]

Track bias is a myth, like Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny.
If that were only true I would have abandoned Aqueduct LONG ago.

Until I played East coast courses regularly, I would have agreed with you.

[Greyfox]

Track bias is a myth, like Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny.

IMO, aside from the horse, the track surface is the most important handicapping variable. Most times when people say a bias exists, it doesn't.
But when a track bias does exist, it will have a huge determining factor on the outcome.

[wegoosewe]

err...how many of them did you expect to win? Without handicapping the races first, and then watching them play out, and then trying to understand why things played out why they did, who won from where is pretty meaningless.


Well looking at the charts. It came down to horses that got to the lead first or within a length or so.In general horses breaking from the inside posts naturally have a great advantage. Shortest point around the track. Most winners so far this meet, coming from the middle to the outside. They have a little more extra distance to travel and they still are getting the lead. So why arent the inside post winning? Now if the bias was favoring the inside dont you think the results would be different. aka Aqueduct.

[chickenhead]

again I will say, in a small sample, it all depends on the horses. Most horses in most races have little shot at winning, wherever they're drawn. In a small sample, without handicapping, you're looking at randomness basically. The good horses could be drawn anywhere.

It came down to horses that got to the lead first or within a length or so

OK, what PATH were they running in?

They have a little more extra distance to travel and they still are getting the lead.

Maybe because they are faster? Without handicapping you have no idea, do you?

Now if the bias was favoring the inside dont you think the results would be different.

What bias?

[wegoosewe]

Looking at the results will just show that there is a bias. Post 1 in the money 4 times on thursday. Wed Post was in the money 1. So your saying monmouth officials are placing the better horses outside. But yet post 2 is in the money more and there isnt a bias come on now.

[Semipro]

IMO, aside from the horse, the track surface is the most important handicapping variable. Most times when people say a bias exists, it doesn't.
But when a track bias does exist, it will have a huge determining factor on the outcome. You got it right

[wegoosewe]

IMO, aside from the horse, the track surface is the most important handicapping variable. Most times when people say a bias exists, it doesn't.
But when a track bias does exist, it will have a huge determining factor on the outcome.

I believe that it currently is have a huge determining factor on the outcomes post 1 showings in the money. Out of 19 races only five times in the money.

Thats 5 out 57 spots in the money. That is determing out come.

[the little guy]

Looking at the results will just show that there is a bias. Post 1 in the money 4 times on thursday. Wed Post was in the money 1. So your saying monmouth officials are placing the better horses outside. But yet post 2 is in the money more and there isnt a bias come on now.


You figure out a bias by watching the races and determining if horses overperformed or underperformed based on their trips on the racetrack. What their post positions were is only relevent in PERHAPS determining their placement on the racetrack. Just perusing result charts, and seeing how post positions did, is completely misleading in any attempt to determine if a bias existed.

[alysheba88]

Track bias is a myth, like Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny.

Think the earth is flat?

[the little guy]

Think the earth is flat?


Do you think it's fair to drop this bomb on me just when I was getting over the apparent fraud concerning Santa and the Easter Bunny?

[alysheba88]

Do you think it's fair to drop this bomb on me just when I was getting over the apparent fraud concerning Santa and the Easter Bunny?
:)

[headhawg]

I believe that it currently is have a huge determining factor on the outcomes post 1 showings in the money. Out of 19 races only five times in the money.

Thats 5 out 57 spots in the money. That is determing out come.I hope you and like-minded bettors put lots and lots of money into the pools.

[wegoosewe]

think what you want about this... apperently trying to get this point across is dead just like the rail at monmouth. I am just trying to put that out there so take it how you want it.


http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?type=feature&id=16379

[Hajck Hillstrom]

The conditions will change hourly. I wouldn't be so concerned about a track bias, but simple logic, and observations, tell me that you will need to be within 3 lengths of the leader at the head of the stretch to win.

Deep closers chances are not enhanced, but I am stating the obvious.

How about a handicapping bias? I think the speed/pedigree boys hold the made hand...... but an Ace on the River can reverse the outcome.

[The Hawk]

think what you want about this... apperently trying to get this point across is dead just like the rail at monmouth. I am just trying to put that out there so take it how you want it.


http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?type=feature&id=16379

The last race today was one of the few I saw, and the winner was on the rail every step of the way, and he came from dead last, at least 15 lengths out of it.

[wegoosewe]

that horse that won the race was part of the entry. he was the 1a horse. He came out of the 7th post. read the pdf chart. http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=MTH&CTY=USA&DATE=20071025&RN=10

[njcurveball]

He came out of the 7th post. read the pdf chart.

good call! :ThmbUp:

The "rail" definitely will be under scrutiny after last year. Race by race we will see how it does.

[wegoosewe]

most of the races were ran wide or off the rail and there was one that was hurried to the front off the rail.

[The Hawk]

that horse that won the race was part of the entry. he was the 1a horse. He came out of the 7th post. read the pdf chart. http://www.drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=MTH&CTY=USA&DATE=20071025&RN=10

That's great that she was the 1A, and broke from post 7. Does that change the fact that she was on the rail for 95% of the race?

[point given]

The last thing monmouth / BC want is a speed rail bias, lt often happens during the regular meet there, and it is pretty boring stuff. Remember the old keeneland ?

I've gotten pretty off the BC now with alll the rain. What are ya gonna do, handicap horses who never run on wet by breeding ? It'll be like handicapping MSW races on turf where most have never run on it. First you don't know if they like the track, then the wet. watch the maintenance crew though, as Brad Thomas today mentioned the harrowing they did between races. I'm wondering how i'll get this information saturday without Brad to clue me in ?
Can get some nice prices maybe on wet breeding, especially in exactas and tris. If i'm on track i bet wet days, but off track is very iffy to me. Will probably bet much less and stay away more from the picks too, a staple of mine . I'll dig in on the turf though. It's really a shame the weather came.

[Valuist]

You can't just use post position. Remember last year with the rail at CD on Breeders Cup day and many people were saying the "rail carried Thor's Echo to victory while the Bordonaro struggled from the 9 hole. In reality, Thor's Echo was 3 wide on the turn and in the stretch while Bordonaro was the one on the rail.

[jma]

It seems pretty clear that the bias will be towards horses that can swim.

Another strategy---bet horses on or near the lead for the first few races to play to the usual Monmouth speed bias. Then, after a few of those win and seven jockeys all gun for the lead into the first turn, start looking for the mid-pack horses and closers. Simple as that, big BC wins.

Everyone just try to enjoy yourselves. Even with the slop, it should be a good day with some big prices.

[Bill Olmsted]

Yesterday the Monmouth surface ran 1.5 seconds FAST for sprint races 1 & 4. Then the surface appeared to slow down as the day wore on. I made sprints races 5, 9 & 10 1/2 second SLOW.

Sloppy/Muddy tracks often run fast early and slow down as the day progresses. That seems to be the case with Mth.

[46zilzal]

Sloppy/Muddy tracks often run fast early and slow down as the day progresses. That seems to be the case with Mth.
MORE water, less time for deep track maintenance and the drains near the rail back up. See it all the time at most tracks over the course of a program in the rain.

[Bill Olmsted]

MORE water, less time for deep track maintenance and the drains near the rail back up. See it all the time at most tracks over the course of a program in the rain.

For sure, it happens all the time at all tracks. For this reason I tend to favor early speed (even more than I normally do) when the track is early/sloppy and am more cautious as the day progresses.