First dirt

[tbioaj]

I'm going out on a limb and I'll throw out any Juvie who hasn't run on the dirt. That leaves out 30-1 Clearly Foxy(nice dirt work) 10-1Tasha's Miracle, 20-1 Set Play(did have a nice MTH work) 6-1 Izarra, 30-1 Zee Zee(nice dirt work),10-1 Grace Anatomy in the filly division and 30-1 Shore Do, 50-1 Overextended, 12-1Salute the Sarge and 10-1 Wicked Style in the colt division.
It may not be my wisest decision but I'm going to stick with it. Any thoughts on that angle?

[njcurveball]

I dont have the pp's in front of me, but didn't Dreaming of Anna come into this race off a few turf starts last year?

2 year olds work out on dirt all the time. So tossing them just because they have been racing on turf or poly is not a logical angle.

Now if you think they ONLY have turf breeding or ONLY have poly breeding, than you have a way to measure it.


A horse like Tasha's Miracle looks like she has much better slop breeding than Poly.

[46zilzal]

Cigar= so much for turf BREEDING. Palace Music by the Minstrel......

The individual trumps the theoretical every time.

[Robert Fischer]

Shore Do, His lack of gate speed could hurt him even more on dirt.

Overextended, His pedigree suggests he may prefer real dirt.

Salute the Sarge and His pedigree suggests he may prefer real dirt. Stamina an issue on dirt?

Wicked Style - pretty good gate speed.

[tbioaj]

I dont have the pp's in front of me, but didn't Dreaming of Anna come into this race off a few turf starts last year?

2 year olds work out on dirt all the time. So tossing them just because they have been racing on turf or poly is not a logical angle.

Now if you think they ONLY have turf breeding or ONLY have poly breeding, than you have a way to measure it.


A horse like Tasha's Miracle looks like she has much better slop breeding than Poly. I thought Dreaming of Anna won on the dirt at AP before her turf wins but I'm not sure. As far as horse's working on the dirt all the time, I would be more inclined to bet a horse with a nice dirt work, but a lot of these So Cal horses have been working on a synthetic surface almost exclusively. I know the bet against first dirt is not a proven angle but I'm willing to stick my neck out on this one, Good Luck

[njcurveball]

but a lot of these So Cal horses have been working on a synthetic surface almost exclusively.

You have a good point here. Most 3 year olds got to touch dirt at 2, but the new crop now can be in a Wax bubble.

Surface toss should be based on odds first. Naturally you don't want to take short odds on a horse trying a new surface.

Then at around 5-1 a trainer check. Some trainers excel at this stuff.

And when it gets to 20-1 ANY sign of good breeding should get your interest.

Tossing out a bunch of horses 10, 20, 30-1 in the ML is far from going out on a limb.

If you are a straight win better, you should be fine. Some of these will be filling out the trifecta and superfecta tickets.

[stu]

I thought Dreaming of Anna won on the dirt at AP before her turf wins but I'm not sure. As far as horse's working on the dirt all the time, I would be more inclined to bet a horse with a nice dirt work, but a lot of these So Cal horses have been working on a synthetic surface almost exclusively. I know the bet against first dirt is not a proven angle but I'm willing to stick my neck out on this one, Good Luck

AP 5/19/2006 1 D fst 4 1/2 F Md Sp Wt

Dreaming of Anna broke her maiden on the dirt in her debut

[njcurveball]

I thought Dreaming of Anna won on the dirt at AP before her turf wins

I think you are right! Shame horses won't have that chance now. Hooray for wax! :bang:

[nobeyerspls]

I'm going out on a limb and I'll throw out any Juvie who hasn't run on the dirt. That leaves out 30-1 Clearly Foxy(nice dirt work) 10-1Tasha's Miracle, 20-1 Set Play(did have a nice MTH work) 6-1 Izarra, 30-1 Zee Zee(nice dirt work),10-1 Grace Anatomy in the filly division and 30-1 Shore Do, 50-1 Overextended, 12-1Salute the Sarge and 10-1 Wicked Style in the colt division.
It may not be my wisest decision but I'm going to stick with it. Any thoughts on that angle?

I would have a problem the other way, i.e. first poly. If they get the rain they expect, Izarra will be very much alive.
When Churchill opens I expect to cash some nice tickets on horses who worked well at Churchill, ran poorly at Keeneland, and then returned to Churchill. This works with young horses with only a few starts.