Question about Dutching PTC-style

[stu]

Y'all,

I understand the practice Dutch wagering on the PTC site. I have
never tried dutching and am curious of someone will share a real world
example with me.

I am watching both Monmouth and Hawthorne today. I would really
appreciate it if someone would use one of their races today as
an example even if you want to post it after the race is run.

Stu

[stu]

Monmouth race 2 for 10/25/2007

My top three selections were:

1 - Spring Mambo
3 - Sunday Elegance
6 - Eurodollar

I selected all three with a mimimum ROI of 33% on $20.

Combo Ticket Wager Winnings
1 97411821584558 7.00 0.00
3 41415214062690 8.00 25.60
6 16371122711847 7.00 0.00

I netted a profit of $3.60

My meat of my question is how do you determine the minimum ROI?

I just grabbed a number out of the air. What number should I have
chosen? Or how should I determine that number?

Stu

[skate]

i understand that you do not want my answer, for an answer.


but the minimum is whatever you bet. in your case $20.


the rest is "up to you". what do you want?

dutch is fine, not a win formula in itself.

[Robert Fischer]

Example:
Say you are going to dutch horses #1 and #2
Their WIN ODDS are 2-1 and 4-1 respectively.
a (1,2) exacta pays $35
a (2,1) exacta pays $40

you wish to invest $10 (your goal wager)

2 ways to determine SUGGESTED WAGER
a) Use the tote odds to generate a probability (1/odds+1) for each horse, then divide the individual probability by the sum of all the probabilities and then multiply by the GOAL WAGER.
b) Enter your own probabilities for each horse, then divide the individual probability by the sum of all the probabilities and then multiply by the GOAL WAGER.



for the Example I give here
bet
$5 win on 1
$3 win on 2
and box the exacta 1,2 for $1

IF 1 or 2 wins, the least amount of ROI you will have is 1.5 or +50% ($15/$10)
If neither 1 or 2 wins , You lose $10.

I use my spreadsheet

click to enlarge
http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/7663/dutchtr1.th.jpg (http://img80.imageshack.us/img80/7663/dutchtr1.jpg)

[Premier Turf Club]

Monmouth race 2 for 10/25/2007

My top three selections were:

1 - Spring Mambo
3 - Sunday Elegance
6 - Eurodollar

I selected all three with a mimimum ROI of 33% on $20.

Combo Ticket Wager Winnings
1 97411821584558 7.00 0.00
3 41415214062690 8.00 25.60
6 16371122711847 7.00 0.00

I netted a profit of $3.60

My meat of my question is how do you determine the minimum ROI?

I just grabbed a number out of the air. What number should I have
chosen? Or how should I determine that number?

Stu

Stu, choosing an minimum ROI is an art more than a science. IT's a function of how much of the win probablity you think you have covered. In the above example, if you though going into the race that 1,3, and 6 covered 70% of the win probability. Generally people look for a 20% minimum edge on the wager. If that's the case, you would set min ROI as follows:

MIN ROI = 1.2/P(w) -1 where P(w) = the sum probability of the horses in the dutch.

In the above the "correct" Min ROI would be 1.2/.7 -1 or .714.

You can change 1.2 to anything you want (e.g. 1.25 for 25% edge, 1.5 for 50% edge, etc.)

Hope that helps.

[stu]

Ian,

Mucho gracias, ahora entiendo.

Stu

[rrbauer]

I liked the 3-5-6 box with a required 150% ROI and a $50 bet specification.

Here's what I got.

Combo Ticket # Wagered Returned Bonus Profit/(Loss)
3-5 50449336135932 9.00 216.90 0.23 208.13
3-6 50900202976175 6.00 0.00 0.15 (5.85)
5-3 01826052659217 13.00 0.00 0.33 (12.68)
5-6 91997397508986 9.00 0.00 0.23 (8.78)
6-3 82579850250131 7.00 0.00 0.18 (6.83)
6-5 99022832085987 9.00 0.00 0.23 (8.78)
TOTAL 6 $53.00 $216.90 $1.33 $165.23

Totals Panel
Bet Type # of Tickets Wagered Returned Bonus Profit/(Loss)
EXACTA 6 53.00 216.90 1.33 165.23

TOTAL 6 $53.00 $216.90 $1.33 $165.23

Due to rounding I got $53 worth of bets.
Basically I liked this set of combinations even-up against all of the other possible combinations in the race (100% ROI) and then I added 50% to
that to get 150%. The actual ROI was a good bit higher than that.

Usually I figure Win Dutch bet amounts (2 horses) in my head but the ability to dutch the exactas is a good feature IMO.