BC...who moves UP on soft/off track ?

[sammy the sage]

Hard Spun definitely goes up as well Passage of Time.

other thoughts/tidbits/breeding analysis?

[46zilzal]

Breeding..a superimposed retroactive statistic when it is an INDIVIDUAL'S characteristic whether an animal does well (or should I say dislikes off going LESS) than the next one.

No horse likes unsure footing. Some handle it better than others. INDIVIDUAL characteristic not unlike why you like mustard and I like mayonnaise on my sandwich.

SPEED always does better in off going. How would you do with a rooster tail of mud in your face, or, being out all alone on the lead with NO mud in your face? Think about it.

[Tom]

Thought about it.

I got the data that shows a definate statistical correlation between breeding and off track performance.

I got a breeding number that does outstandingly in BC/Triple Crown races.
Don't need to discuss this, the proof for me is in the data. No number can predict individual races, but overall, using them can be profitable.

[Robert Fischer]

Breeding stats are great for a ballpark idea of new situations. Running style is a huge factor as well.
Past Performance over off tracks trumps all.

[46zilzal]

Breeding stats are great for a ballpark idea of new situations. Running style is a huge factor as well.
Past Performance over off tracks trumps all.

The INDIVIDUAL'S performances, yep, not some theoretical genetic malarkey.

[Tom]

That would be statistical malarkey. :D

[David-LV]

At 8:00 PM EST-WED.

Very heavy rain is coming down at Monmouth Park at this time.:( :(

__________
David

[Robert Fischer]

war pass could benefit

[DJofSD]

I can see it now: the Mile actually runs at 1 mile 70 yards and the filly/mare turf runs over the brown stuff!

[nobeyerspls]

Hard Spun definitely goes up as well Passage of Time.

other thoughts/tidbits/breeding analysis?

Wanderin Boy on Friday and perhaps Shaggy Mane.

All the Distorted Humors move up and there are a few. Izarra, Z Humor, Commentator, and Any Given Saturday look live even though Commentator is not a six furlong horse.

As to the turf, you can see a preference for soft in the pp's. Nashoba's Key has yet to run on a soft turf and both Honey Ryder and Passage of Time will handle it.

[sammy the sage]

' Any Given Saturday look live'...Agreed

[ceejay]

If you throw out the Irish Derby (bled?) Shamdinan may move up on off turf. Needs to move up a lot to contend here.....