Keeneland Midweek 4

[bellsbendboy]

6) 25K Claimer

A NICE SPLASH looks for number fifteen today and has run well his last four all at 5-2 or last. Goldsmith 7yo from the Flint barn has good spacing, a nice five eights last week and gets Theriot who is very familiar. Also War TRACER who has been off since May but runs very well fresh and Kohnhorst/Leparoux a solid combo and ACT OF WAR a 9yo coming off the claim who has already banked 52K in 2007.

7) 1X F

SILVER BREEZE has run well in all four startsand closed decently behind a graded performer opening week. Bisantz leased daughter of Silver Deputy should enjoy the race shape and the cut back to six panels. Nice weekend work, Stidham reliable and Mena on the reride. Also 'ANNA and GERI... who are both coming off the bench but are in good hands, are working well and have always taken money, and shown up.

8) OC 80K...3X... or nw4life

REY DEL SOL comes up selectively tagged by Yanez as he is eligible to the 3X option. 4yo Eltish Ilini bred is very sharp and looks the days best... but adding Crown Point who will be running last and many in here want no part of nine panels.

9) 7500 Claimer

POWER AND ACHASE closed good ground opening week this journey in a race he needed. A repeat with Sarvis on the reride puts this senior citizen right there. Also INIAZO who is very cheap but Ricky very clever and got Larry M up from Louisville and he will provide much needed rider relief. 589/1,8,12/ 6,10/ 3,7 Will move our tack to Monmouth. Good cappin. BBB

[bellsbendboy]

Really have no excuses as to why RED ALERT ($8.40) was not on our ticket! The 4yo GC gelding beat a better field two back and earned a huge figure. On our form, we wrote SP which indicates probable lone speed in our vernacular and the two outstanding works are highlighted in green. We spent probably a half hour or so on this heat and never had much clue, sans Red Alert. Not surprisingly Cody loses Red Alert to Rick Hiles, but oddly claims both A Nice Splash and Whole Nine Yards. Taking horses off Golsmith and Ramsey shows why Autry sports a big time batting average.

Race Seven went to the rail filly ANNA FOREVER ($27.40) under a hustling ride by Bejarano. We included this filly and should have considered betting her at the inflated price after our first leg futility. Our top choice Silver Breeze ran well enough but is a tweener.. a horse with modest talent which has no preference for either, distance or surface! Silver Deputy crossed with Halo and they are really mean tempered!!

For eight and a half of the nine furlongs REY DEL SOL looked awful. Coming to the sixteenth pole Castanon finally pointed him towards the wire and the 4yo Eltish gelding finally ran to his past performances getting beaten a neck and a nose while being carried well wide by Five Star Thief ($32.40). This race is a good example why deep closers are generally poor bets.

The last leg was a bottom claimer but offered an interesting look at analyzing class! The thread elsewhere on this site has morphed into prattle but a good question for any capper, that is applicable to whatever track they follow is;

At what point does claiming price trump conditions??

Anotherwords the winner here PERFECTLY GOLDEN ($27.60) would be tossed by most handicappers (us included) based on the fact that the 4yo was one for eighteen in his career. He had been repeatedly drilled in nonwinners 2 life while in for 15K. Yesterday he dropped? to open claimers for $7500 and wired the field. Was he dropping in class?? No one claimed Autry's 3-2 dropper yet the winner was taken!!! Tough game. How tough? One winner gets $78K for getting all four. Working on Saturday. BBB

[jonnielu]

Really have no excuses as to why RED ALERT ($8.40) was not on our ticket! The 4yo GC gelding beat a better field two back and earned a huge figure. On our form, we wrote SP which indicates probable lone speed in our vernacular and the two outstanding works are highlighted in green. We spent probably a half hour or so on this heat and never had much clue, sans Red Alert. Not surprisingly Cody loses Red Alert to Rick Hiles, but oddly claims both A Nice Splash and Whole Nine Yards. Taking horses off Golsmith and Ramsey shows why Autry sports a big time batting average.

Figures, best in ability off of 2nd back.

Race Seven went to the rail filly ANNA FOREVER ($27.40) under a hustling ride by Bejarano. We included this filly and should have considered betting her at the inflated price after our first leg futility. Our top choice Silver Breeze ran well enough but is a tweener.. a horse with modest talent which has no preference for either, distance or surface! Silver Deputy crossed with Halo and they are really mean tempered!!

Figures, dead nuts par on ability, farthest below #9, next #8

For eight and a half of the nine furlongs REY DEL SOL looked awful. Coming to the sixteenth pole Castanon finally pointed him towards the wire and the 4yo Eltish gelding finally ran to his past performances getting beaten a neck and a nose while being carried well wide by Five Star Thief ($32.40). This race is a good example why deep closers are generally poor bets.

#10 figures to run out of gas (3rd in ability), #2 best ability rating, #3 one point away - figures to handle the extra 1.5f while #2 runs out of gas (early speed), #9? one of those weird things that happen in horse racing.

The last leg was a bottom claimer but offered an interesting look at analyzing class! The thread elsewhere on this site has morphed into prattle but a good question for any capper, that is applicable to whatever track they follow is;

#6, just off par on one side - sweet, #2 & #10 tied in overall ability at 2nd rating, #4 & #12 next, I expected #4 to handle the extra distance better then #12, jockeys? What can you do.

At what point does claiming price trump conditions??

I don't know, how could we figure it out?

Anotherwords the winner here PERFECTLY GOLDEN ($27.60) would be tossed by most handicappers (us included) based on the fact that the 4yo was one for eighteen in his career. He had been repeatedly drilled in nonwinners 2 life while in for 15K. Yesterday he dropped? to open claimers for $7500 and wired the field. Was he dropping in class?? No one claimed Autry's 3-2 dropper yet the winner was taken!!! Tough game. How tough? One winner gets $78K for getting all four. Working on Saturday. BBB

It sounds like you are asking about the value of class handicapping. Put me down for not much.