Pace Figure ?

[cj]

Anyone use field size and position in the field when comparing pace figures of different horses?

As an example, say two horses earned an 80 in last race. Horse 1 was 2nd in a 10 horse field at the pace call, while Horse 2 was 4th in a 6 horse field.

I've been tinkering with this in my personal program and have some thoughts, but I want to see what others think first.

CJ

[justin]

Personally, I wouldn't increase a horse's pace figure just based on their post or the field size. They ran what they ran and I'd prefer to make judgements like this on the fly rather than assign it some numeric bonus. I would think finding a running line comparable to today's post/field size/expected pace would be bettter way to do it. If possible, anyhow.

Mentally, you've got to realize in the back of your head that efforts from a bad post or in a large field are probably better than they look, but putting a number to that is probably a rough science at best. Did the 10-hole cost the horse 1 length? 2 lengths? Who knows! What about horses that are sharp breakers and aren't hindered by an outside post? (rare, but it happens) Do they get a bonus when they would run the same regardless of their post? Of course, you've been using your numbers much longer than I have so I defer to your opinion :cool:

Justin

[cj]

Hey bro,

I wasn't talking post position, but running position at the pace call.

CJ

[justin]

Whoops...one of these days I'll learn how to read :eek:

If we're to assume both horses are front-runners and both earned their figure in races similar in distance, my answer is...I don't know. In the context of just those single performances, I'd say the horse that was second probably did more to earn his figure, but it's hard for me to answer that with any certainty based on just a figure and position. What was the race pace figure for each of their races? Post positions? Troubled trip? Etc, etc...I guess I'm not really sure how you're looking to address this with your program, so my apologies if I've misunderstood...again :)

-Justin

[Rick]

CJ,

Based on some studies I've done in the past, being up to 3 lengths off the paces at the first call is about as predictive of early speed as is leading, and better in terms of ROI. So, my guess would be that you should give extra credit to the close up pressers and less credit to the leaders. It's something I've always meant to look into further, so I'd be interested in what you found.

[Doug]

Pace Figure ?
Anyone use field size and position in the field when comparing pace figures of different horses?

As an example, say two horses earned an 80 in last race. Horse 1 was 2nd in a 10 horse field at the pace call, while Horse 2 was 4th in a 6 horse field

A few years back a guy named Barry Burkan had a complete pencil and form method using only running position and number of horses. I believe the method was called Power Pace and he was an ex-Sartin guy.

Doug

[JustMissed]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
Hey bro,

I wasn't talking post position, but running position at the pace call.

CJ

CJ, I use the Bris/TSN pace figures and their instructions say that two pace points equals 1 length. So if one horse runs a pace call at 89 and another at 87, they are 1 length apart.

I may not have fully understood your question but I thought those factors were already "baked in the bread".

Please let me know if I am wrong as I use the pace figs all the time.

Thanks,

JustMissed

[cj]

JM.

You are close to what I am working on.

Say the horses you mention ran in different races, but the first horse ran his 89 while in 6th position and the second horse ran his 87 while leading. I am finding that 89 doesn't really mean much and the 1st horse will not be close to the 2nd horse unless he has shown front running ability in previous races. Not only does this "89" horse not run up close, he doesn't run well at all.

I've been looking to find why I do poorly in certain types of races while excelling in others. I stink at conditioned (NW of X lifetime) claimers and cheap maiden races, and I've found it's because I over emphasize pace figures of horses with no history of front running ability.

I'm starting to think these horses get "sucked" along to there pace figs, ala harness racing. Any thoughts?

CJ

[JustMissed]

Just a suggetion. You might want to go back to the general handicapping qualifiers: distance, form(condition), class & footing first to get your contenders. Then use your race shape, pace matchups & speed to pick the best horse out of your final contenders which are in good enough form and properly placed at the right distance to win.

JustMissed





:)

[BillW]

CJ,

Have you tried looking at running style/speed points as a probability modifier for going to the front.

i.e. horse with highest pace rating but has 4 horses ahead of him in running style/QSP has lower probability of getting lead than a E8 that is a few pace pts. back.

This would add an element of intent ... a horse is perfectly capable of running an 89 but has no intention of running out front, and if he does get the lead by default will run slower due to his uncomfortable position ...hence the "suck along" theory?

Bill

[ranchwest]

Charles Carroll tells about herding instincts. The front runner wants the lead, etc., each horse knows where he wants to be in the pack.

So, the back 89 trails the front 89. Why does the back 89 perform poorly? I think it is often because he's dropped in class because he's not a winner and is just on his way down the claiming ladder. He doesn't have a competitive nature, he's a loser.

However, if the back 89 is live, he will find the pace easy and demolish the field up the stretch, though this is somewhat rare.

[kitts]

CJ- For what it is worth, I do OK at conditioned claimers and cheap claimers Pace numbers are not much help. Form reversal is the key. My basics are:

Must have one win showing, not the last race.
No drop of 3 class levels or more
Prefer trainers better than 8%
Dismiss the favorite.

Often these basics reduce the race to my required 5 contenders. Then compare their best races. If there is a form reversal, this is the way to measure it.

[JustMissed]

The ALL-Ways site at frandsen.com, has some excellent articles on pace. If you will study those you will find out exactly how they use pace matchups to predicit the winner. Very, very good stuff.

Gordon Pine also has an excellant article entitled UNDERSTANDING PACE: A CUP OF GAS . His website is at netcapper.com. The article is in the Track Tracts tab.

Hope these help.

JustMissed

[justin]

"I'm starting to think these horses get "sucked" along to there pace
figs, ala harness racing. Any thoughts"

I think you're probably right with this 9 times out of 10. If the horse has never shown that they can get the lead or be close, then their pace figures are worthless IMHO. If the race pace is 95 and the horse runs and 80, then the same horse is in a race with a pace of 85 and they run a 75, etc, etc...then to hell with that horse because they're just getting pulled to a decent pace figure. I've seen what you're talking about plenty of times and I usually don't put much stock in pace figures earned that way.

Justin

[Fastracehorse]

It's in my adjd figs.

I don't worry about field size because my answer is in the Beyer I adjust.

But logically, one would assume that there is a higher chance of steeper pace pressure in a larger field.

Try adjusting speed figs.

If U are successful U answer alot of these types of questions.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Rick,

Re: the following: >Based on some studies I've done in the past, being up to 3 lengths off the paces at the first call is about as predictive of early speed as is leading, and better in terms of ROI.

You are the only poster on this forum or DRF that makes me stop and think, " Good thoughts."

fffastt

[keilan]

Fastracehorse - everyone sees the speed horse, not quite as many see the horse running off the pace. Nothing too brilliant about that.

[andicap]

Yes, Rick makes a good point. But while I hesitate to call it obvious, it certainly has made a certain sense to me for a while.
Horses that go for the lead often tend to be the need-to-lead "E" types who will set any pace -- no matter how fast. They will win when they can relax enough to set a pace that is in their comfort level.

Horses that press or stalk 2-3 lengths off the lead have more flexibility in when they make their move. If the pace is hot, the jocks can hold back until late. If it is slower, they will move more quickly. That is why "E/P" types do well: they have the luxury of sitting back or going to the front if there is no pace today.

My primary pace method values turn time a great deal because I have found in conjunction with other factors it is very predictive.

[keilan]

Andicap - not many guy's here speak of " turn time "

Question, do you consider pace when rating TT, do you upgrade or downgrade performance in that area of the race if the pace is quicker/slower than Par.

Rick was pointing out the obvious with regard to R.O.I. and that's the point I commented on.

[andicap]

I don't do anything with pars -- for now.
I look at turn time in the context of other fractions of course.

[ranchwest]

lllast,

Your attempts to adjust the Beyers probably explains why your shorts are on crooked.

[Tee]

What about clocking errors?

[cj]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse
Rick,

You are the only poster on this forum or DRF that makes me stop and think, " Good thoughts."

fffastt

I'm off to cry myself to sleep since fast doesn't think I have good thoughts :( :( :( , particularly when his are so enlightening!

CJ

[Rick]

I appreciate the kind comments from some, but I need to point out that I don't really have the answer to this problem. What I said was only pure speculation based on putting a couple of things together I found in different studies. You never really know until you test the various possibilities and it sounds like others have done more than I have in this area.

But, that being said, I can say that some of my biggest winners have been horses that had good early pace but didn't show the expected running style and speed points. My largest priced winner to date was listed as an S0 in the BRIS past performances but figured best on early speed according to my method.

Here's another interesting possibility (from a Sport Stat study): a horse that dueled for the lead at both 1st and 2nd calls last race (within one length ahead or behind) and is coming back in 31-44 days. So, it showed some class by fighting for the lead (which is good but tiring), then got an adequate rest before trying again.

[cj]

Preliminary findings:

Horses who have earned a figure while not competitive in a race are poor bets if they haven't run that figure in the past. This mostly comes into play with cheap or lightly raced horses.

What do I mean "not competitive"?

Pace call-Was in the rear half of the field OR more than 5 lengths behind

AND

Finish-Was more than five lengths behind.

This is working quite nicely eliminating many horses taking heavy action and avoiding bets I would have made in the past.

CJ

[Fastracehorse]

>Fastracehorse - everyone sees the speed horse, not quite as many see the horse running off the pace. Nothing too brilliant about that.

You miss the point-exactly my point.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

You don't attempt to adjust Beyers if you are me.

You do adjust Beyers.

fffastt

[keilan]

yeah- and it took you two days to come up with that. I can see your the clever one!!!

[Fastracehorse]

Yah I did.

Good one.

fffastt