Exacta Take

[GR1@HTR]

From Netcapper/Gordy Pine

Quick-and-Dirty Track Techniques: The Exacta
by Gordon Pine

For over a decade, I've sold and counseled in the use of record-keeping software for handicappers. (Keeping and analyzing betting
records is both the thing that handicappers least like to do - me included - and the thing that helps their profitability the most.) During
that time, I've seen the actual betting records of many handicappers. I may have the dubious distinction of having seen more
handicappers' betting records than anyone else on earth. It's not the kind of thing most people get to see. Like a CPA's intimate
knowledge of many people's financial details, I've seen the reality - good, bad and ugly - of many handicappers' betting.

What was the most common trend in all those betting records? It was a tendency to win money in win, place and show betting and give
most, all, or more than all of it back in exotics. So my advice was usually simple: Stop betting exotics! Or bet them only on paper until
you find a profitable method.

Take the exacta. Racegoers tend to hack away at the exacta in an ugly fashion, boxing and wheeling their way to poverty. They commit
the cardinal sin of trying to cash the bet rather than going for value in the long run. If you want to cash exactas, I've got a system for
you: box every horse in the race. I guarantee that you will hit 100% of the time. And you will lose a heck of a lot of money.

Principle #1 of exacta betting is that you've got to bet lean and mean.

Principle #1 of exacta betting is that you've got to bet lean and mean. With a 25% or so takeout, this is a must. If your system is to bet
four-horse boxes, you're putting out $12 per race (assuming $1 exactas). Do that regularly and you're unlikely to get your money back.
The smaller you can make your per-race outlay, the more likely you are to show a profit in the long run. I know that some well-regarded
handicappers have written about "constructing a bet" so that you make money if your key horse or horses run anywhere in the money.
That may work for them personally, maybe because they have the handicapping judgement to know when to apply the technique. But
for most handicappers, even really good ones, it's a mistake to try to cash the exacta based on multiple outcomes. So, lean-and-mean
exacta betting suggests that you set it up so you cash only if your key horse wins. Save your money on all those other saver bets.

Principle #2 of exacta betting is that every exacta combination must have a value component. There are many complex ways, including
handheld computers and exacta grids, to estimate the fair pay of each exacta combination. You can then compare that fair pay to the
actual payoff on the monitor, and thus decide which combinations contain value and deserve a bet. One problem with these techniques
is that actual exacta payoffs are even more volatile than win odds (and you know how hard it is to know what win odds you're going to
get these days), so you're never quite sure if you're getting the value you think you are. A second problem is the amount of last-minute
work you have to do in each race to try to bet only overlaid exacta combinations. I think exacta grids are workable, but handheld
computers just have too much inputting and last-minute stressing-out for my taste.

Principle #3 of exacta betting is that you better seriously consider including the first and second favorite in your combinations. Something
like 85% of all exactas contain either the first or second favorite, so unless you want to restrict yourself to the remaining 15%, you
better use them in some of your combinations. (The origin of this stat is lost in the mists of time, so I'm open to correction if a reader
has more accurate statistics on the rate of favorites placing in the exacta.)

Now here's the quick-and-dirty part: My typical way of betting exactas has been to wheel my overlay top-and-bottom to the top two
favorites. This has worked well for years, but in the spirit of Principle #1: Bet lean and mean, I'm going to tweak it. My records don't
distinguish between the profitability of the overlays on top of the favorites and the overlays under the favorites, but my suspicion is
that the profitability of overlays in the place spot have lagged behind overlays in the win spot.

So here's what I suggest: bet your overlay on top of the top two favorites. This is a $2 exacta outlay, so it's lean and mean. It has a
value component because when a horse is an overlay in the win pool, it's usually an overlay in the exacta pool. And it includes the first
and second favorites, so you're not cutting myself out of 85% of the winning exacta combinations. (If your overlay is the top favorite, use
the second and third favorites in the second spot. If your overlay is the second favorite, use the first and third favorites in the second
spot.)

If you have two overlays, wheel both of them on top of the top two favorites. Then box the two overlays. This is a $6 exacta outlay. It's
lean and mean, it has a big value component (as you will find out if your overlays run one-two), and it includes the top two favorites. If
you have three or more overlays, skip the race. As Steve Fierro discusses in his Three-Overlay-Pass filter, if you have this many
overlays, it may be because you are unduly disrespecting the favorites - your line is probably inaccurate.

So here's the summation: Bet lean-and-mean exactas with a value component that involve the top two favorites in some of your
combinations. Do this by part-wheeling your overlays on top of the favorites and boxing your overlays. Stay away from three-plus
overlay races. When your overlay runs second or third, get over it and move on to the next race. And be sure to tip the ladies who sell
you coffee and donuts or the racing gods will get you and it'll all go south no matter what you do. NC

[formula_2002]

Gr1, my studies show that if you can make a profit in the win pool, stick with win betting only.

Placing any other horse on top of your pick is an insurance bet.
Insurance cost money.

In the long run you willl never make more money in the exacta pool then you can in the win pool, unless perhaps, you have proven to yourself that you can pick the place horse for an exacta profit. (i'm still working on picking the winner)

Regards
Joe M

I have exacta reports supporting the above that I may place on my web page.

[hurrikane]

Interesting.
IMHO
If you can make money in the exotics..make it. It doesn't matter what someone elses data tells you they can do. Just keep your bankrolls and records seperate.

The big problem I have with this is these appear to be 'ideas' Gordon has without any factual data to support it. Just 'ideas'.

I think there are more overlays in the tri and Px plays only because the money is more hidden (and they are tougher to hit!)

If you want to learn how to make great exotic combinations..check with tcat and see if he has any of his books left. Actually..that book should go on the best/worst list of books for the best book on structuring exotics I've read.

[Holy Bull]

I like how he preaches value and then tells people to just put there overlay over the top 2 choices in the race, based on the rational that 85% of exactas have one of top 2 choices in the race. Thats fine and dandy but assuming your overlay wins, the conditional probability of 1 of the top 2 choices coming in second probably is around 45% or so.

[CapperLou]

hurricane etal.

I have always been a Win or Win & Place bettor only--and for many years a winning player.

Gordon Pine was the fellow who finally convinced me to start playing exactas and if I was doing well with them and had gutz to try trifectas. Of course--I know all about the huge takeouts.

Before Gordon convinced me--a few of my friends who are profitable around the country kept telling me that I am missing the boat--with my skills---"Today, That's Where ALL THE MONEY is CapperLou.

This past year--I started a separate "stake" and Guys--the stake has grown almost 20 units in 7 mths. Mind you I still don't think I know how to play exactas properly--but if you can pick horses--there is a LOT OF MONEY sitting there despite the huge takeouts.

Of course, you only play when there is value!!!

I read Gordon's article and was a little surprised by it.

I am making lots of dough and risking far less money when I play the exactas.
But, I'm still on a learning curve when it comes to know how to play them properly!!!

CapperLou

[GR1@HTR]

I don't agree w/ the singling of a long priced horse w/ 2 short priced horses. Play the horses you like bestin an exacta/tri/super(granted they are not the favorites)...

My rule of thumb: Never INCLUDE a horse in your betting because it is getting a lot of money. If you are a capable handicapper, go with what you beleive and not what everyone else does...

The value of exactas is greatly diminished w/ the favorite finishing 1st or 2nd.

[Suff]

I'm probably in a lil over my head here... Because Undoubtley these scientific theorys require alot of intelligence.. and I try and ration all mine.. as its limited. But with that said,,, please don't gang up on me for expressing an opinion.

Never follow the money. It's pointless... even when it is right... it's virtually impossible to turn a profit following money. And its a bad habit... thats tough to break. It is extremley hard not include a 4/5 or even a 2-1 on an exotic ticket... Very very difficult. But as I tell myself,, and anyone that asks,,, DO NOT THIN YOUR MONEY. I can't stand having a $500.00 pik3 for a $1.00 that I coulda had two times if I left the chalk off... instead I go wide.. and thin my money and it cost me.. Do I want a $50.00 pik3 once with a $28.00 dollar ticket... or do I want a $500 PIK3 twice with an $18.00 dollar ticket.

Handicapping.......... I handicapp with three basic components.

1. My brain
2. My Balls
3. My wallet

[hurrikane]

Handicapping.......... I handicapp with three basic components.

1. My brain
2. My Balls
3. My wallet




See, the best handicapping advice doesn't come in books. :D

think I'll keep that one Suff.

[formula_2002]

Well, as far as books and theory go, remember, in 1937 favorites won about 33% of the time and 65 yeras later, they still win about 33% of the time.

Fill in the blanks and that would make a good story....

Joe M

[hurrikane]

I guess the blanks are for those 65 years that 33% winners would have cost you your life savings losing about 18% every year.

[formula_2002]

hurr... the blanks are this.

With all the additional valued information we have accumulated in 65 years there may not be a significant improvement in picking winning favorites.
Even when adjusted for the varrious increasing take outs during those 65 years, we many not have shown that much improvement.
It would make an interesting story to find out how all this new valued data has helped up.
The information is there, just the stoty has to be writte.

[CapperLou]

Sufferin:

You are right on the money there---Keep doing it your way!!!

When you do things in this game like everyone else does--You are guaranteed to LOSE----at a minimum the takeout!!!!

Does this make sense????? It should!!!!

I know you are a very good picker of priced horses---and guess what---that's the easiest and sometimes the only way to beat the races----not just a race!!!

All the Best,

CapperLou

P.S. I know all about the grinders in this game--and--if all I could make was 5-6% ROI---I would not even bother with this game.
Any really good handicapper who plays in spots and knows exactly what each type of play will produce for him will do a heck of a lot better than 5,6,or 7% ROI.
The question is: Can one be one of these very few who are able to accomplish this---that's the hard part.

[Suff]

it's a whole attititude and behavior that allows for "Profit taking"

What was it ? week and 1/2 ago... Ny canceled the ninth race... I had two horses alive in the PIK4... So I got two "alls" at $219.00 a piece,,, anyhow,,, i had just shot down after work.. bet a PIK4 in the 6th,, hit the winner in the 7th and sat out the 8th. So I'm at the track roughly 45 minutes? I cash the ticket for 440.00... an $80.00 ticket for the 7th race winner and a $36.00 voucher that was left from the $100.00 voucher I bought when I walked in. And I left... Now this story is anecdotal I agree. But I do this all the time!

But we all know what the Majority do

1. they hit a race they bet more $$
2. they hit a race they bet more tracks
3. they hit NY and they stay and bet Santa Anita
4. they HIT NY and Santa Anita and they stay for Sam Hous.
5. they hit a race and they start buying beers and get loaded
6. they hit a race and stop handicapping and just hunch and bet
7. they hit a race & they start propping up all thier broke buddies

These are 7 strategies for the easiest way to go broke and have a few stories to tell.

I'm not foolish... I play the horses for Enjoyment and to win.
Losing is not enjoyable. Therefore I don't behave in a way that encourages losing.

When I am winning... I handicapp harder.

When I hit a race I don't change my money management style.

I play 6-10 races a day. Rarely and by rareley I mean NEVER ! do I play more.

I don't lend my money or POOL with buddies. You wanna be a BIG boy and play the horses,, when your BROKE.. Go Home.

I don't go to Suffolk as much as I used to... I have TVG and expressbet.com. And I am a much better horse player from home.. with out all the distractions. But I know quite a few guys at Suffolk,,, people I've been friendly with for years. And they have said to me. "Boy, If I could do what your do,, I'd make money at this. But I can't leave the track with a pocketful of money" To wich I reply........"Silence" Because No matter what I have said to people over 20 years has ever changed one of them.

[Tom]

Handicap with brains
Bet with Beer!

I'll never forget that line from James Bond to M when he was going to play a high-stakes baccarat game in a casino...something to the effect, "I am going to the bar now-I will need to be quite drunk to let go of that much money."

[Schlagman]

CapperLou,

As a win or win & place player myself, I would be very interested in hearing how you made the transition to exacta play. How does your play differ from Gordon Pine's suggested play?

[CapperLou]

Schlagman:

It's not easy!!! And that's an understatement for me!!

I'm still a Win Bettor. I'm still trying to find the right formula where these exacts are concerned--in other words--the best way to manage the money--the right way to play them.

When I first started, I was playing them the way Gordon did--wheeling top and bottom--BUT--I found out that with my top two picks and my longshot in the field(the best outsider according to my handicapping)--I could spend less and was hitting at almost the same rate and now had more on each exacta--so the resulting hits were throwing back more money.
This is a very hard transition for me even now. As Gordon always says---it's the takeout that makes it so hard.
For me to accept 25% takeouts and expect to show a profit is like a pipedream!!!--that is UNTIL I STEELED MYSELF & PUT IT TO THE TEST!!! I have found that what a few friends have told me is actually true--if you are a good horse picker--you can win a lot more playing exactas and have a larger profit per dollar wagered.
I'm still experimenting with how to play my top picks, but the good news is that this separate bankroll that I put together is many multiples higher than at inception--and it has not happened because of a "few" big hits".
I always look for value--and I play my picks--not what horse is the favorite or 2nd favorite. And, I do not play every race--I only play the races where I have a WIN Play.
I need to see how this all pans out over the next five to six mths--need at least a year to see if it will hold up--but so far so good.
I should also mention that if I have plays in a pick 3(which does not happen often--I will make a small play there--it's also new and I have not seen enough to comment on it yet.
In closing, I will state to you that I think there is a lot more value in exactas than trifectas and they are much easier to hit.
I have hit many tri's this past year, but I play chump change and get a break every now and then--tri's are very tough!!

CapperLou

[Holy Bull]

I think where people get into problems with exotic betting in general is that they try to systemize it the way one would a win play. You shouldn't go into a race thinking "I am going to play an exacta on this race", you have to let the race and your handicapping opinion dictate how you are going to play the race. If you play your choice over the top 2 favorites, you are in general better off with a win bet.

[dav4463]

If a race is contentious, I have no problem spreading out in the exacta and have had success with this method:

Box AB
Box ABC
Wheel A w BCD
Wheel B w ACD
Wheel CD w ABCD

Total cost is $40 for a $2 exacta

If it comes in AB or BA, you have it 3 times

AC, CA, BC, or CB, you have it 2 times

If D is involved, you hit once.....D should normally be a longshot


I use this when I can eliminate the first or second favorite (or both) from my top 4.......

Any thoughts?