PLACE LOCKS FOR TUES

[orrug2k]

PHA 1-1 SHOULD BE ON TOP , 2 SPRINTS TO ROUTE...

[orrug2k]

`fE 2-2

FL 1-6
MED 1-2
ZIA 5-3
DEL 2-3
MED 6-1

[lamboguy]

i am with you, but kind of busy.......so don't get mad if i don't reply

[orrug2k]

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO I GOT CREAMED.. ONE SCRATCHE AND 3 LAST PLACE FINISHES. IS THIS POSSIBLE. THIS IS THE FINAL DAY OF PLACE LOCKS TOO... CHICKENHEAD IS JUMPING FOR JOY..

[chickenhead]

same thing happened to me. The Gods know, they KNOW.

[lamboguy]

gonna try 5th tup 4, mamma said there willl be days like this

[orrug2k]

i SEE THE 6 AT WOODLANDS RACE 10 SITTING BEHIND THE SPEED

[orrug2k]

IT WOULD GO WITHT THE 5 AT TUP

[orrug2k]

ZIA RACE 6 NUMBER 3 SHOULD BE FLYING

[imreallytrying]

in the end playing the chalk to place is not a good bet , i would recommend playing only if the horse is going off at 15-1 i never bet anyone who making money playing the chalk to place . just my opinion

[GaryG]

in the end playing the chalk to place is not a good bet , i would recommend playing only if the horse is going off at 15-1 i never bet anyone who making money playing the chalk to place . just my opinionI don't play that way myself but I think it can be done. You would have to be HIGHLY selective though and play just the circuits that you follow on a daily basis.

[orrug2k]

I disagree.. totally statistically with longshot place bets. This was supposed to be selective but has morphed into every race..lol. Im desperate to make a comeback.

[orrug2k]

tup 6 the 4 lays on the speed and hangs on for second... with the 1 flying late.

[GaryG]

I disagree.. totally statistically with longshot place bets. This was supposed to be selective but has morphed into every race..lol. Im desperate to make a comeback.There is no way to have a "place lock" by grasping at straws and playing every race. I suggest that you try to regain your focus with whatever method you use for isolating your plays.

[orrug2k]

zia race 7 number nine is so fine...

[orrug2k]

LIke I said.. the focus went to haites when we got bored yesterday.....We might try again... but I think were still ahead of the game with no rebate.

[orrug2k]

Did you see us blow the turn at zia......just like this contest.

[lamboguy]

missed it, but the horse i liked at TUP ran second and that's where i bet him thanks to you

[orrug2k]

My scribblings have us betting $104 and returning 105...ish... PLay money of course. I do not gamble real money.

The days we really tried we were far better when we were highly selective. I think it was near 115.roi. I think this can be done pretty easily but not nearly as much fun.


tup race 7 number 8 lol

[Light]

Your chalky place locks get you even and CH's chalky win Locks get him 3%. BO gets mad when I point out the futility of this kind of betting. I thank you both for proving my case.

[orrug2k]

If you make a hundered a day on place locks , with your rebate, isnt that 36k a year. Tax free.. Thats just 10 plays a day. Im prettty sure I can get at least 10 pts at any book..especially on these crap tracks... The reason this is good betting is because its hard to have long unlucky streaks...especially if you sharp shoot.

[GaryG]

I agree with Light....yikes did I really say that? This looks like the Highway to Hell (apologies to AC/DC).

[chickenhead]

Your chalky place locks get you even and CH's chalky win Locks get him 3%. BO gets mad when I point out the futility of this kind of betting. I thank you both for proving my case.

16% bankroll growth in just under 30 days, and that was a bad month. Find me another investment that pays out 16% interest compounded monthly, and I'm in, BA-BY.

[orrug2k]

Ok. light ... maybe you have another idea.. I might do this again in a few days for a couple days to prove my point... I think i can beat a buck 10 on roi.. or is that not enough to make place betting worth anything. You tell me.

[lamboguy]

just to put things into perspective, i hit the tri at the mountain 3rd.......4-5 win, 68-1 second, 5-1 third..........5-2 out and 4-1 out i got back $157 for $1.


now that is one bad bet, and i never see them pay what they are worth

i spent $24 to hit it, only returned about 6-1 for my bet

[orrug2k]

you got ripped...sorry lambo.. there is a live show on the feed from mtn, they guy thats on there knows everything going on on each horse. Hes the best I have seen. I wouldnt playthe mountain without his advice if I was you. He figures velocity diff for 5f vs 5.5 and stuff. Says its totally diff speed. tune in on brisbet for free.

[chickenhead]

BO gets mad when I point out the futility of this kind of betting. I thank you both for proving my case.

to me, this is a big reason why more people aren't successful...they have just extremely skewed notions of what success is. Light takes 16% bankroll growth in 25 days as proof of something being futile. That's a 500% annual return. Excuse me, but are you FING INSANE? You can point to all sorts of reasons and say you don;t think it will hold up, etc. That's all fine and good. But anyone that points at the ROI and says it's no good just doesn't get it, period.

I honestly can't think of anywhere, outside of horseracing boards, where 500% annualized growth would be looked down upon. I just don't get it, but then again, I don't really care.

[orrug2k]

Would anyone believe I have a spot play that has been over 115 roi for 2 years now...with 40 plays a month.

[lamboguy]

go for it!

[DeanT]

to me, this is a big reason why more people aren't successful...they have just extremely skewed notions of what success is. Light takes 16% bankroll growth in 25 days as proof of something being futile. That's a 500% annual return. Excuse me, but are you FING INSANE? You can point to all sorts of reasons and say you don;t think it will hold up, etc. That's all fine and good. But anyone that points at the ROI and says it's no good just doesn't get it, period.

I honestly can't think of anywhere, outside of horseracing boards, where 500% annualized growth would be looked down upon. I just don't get it, but then again, I don't really care.

Why is that Chick? Because we are handicappers and have egos do we need the big score or something?

To me there are a few solid reasons to play 1st and 2nd choices in this day and age. (imo)

1) They win a lot. It helps people's pschye's when you are winning. And more importantly when you are studying winners, rather than losers you are learning more.

2) Places like Fivedimes have rebates on winning tickets of 10%. Excellent. Betfair has most action on faves. Buying and selling. If you are a serious player, you have to study chalk.

3) General rebates. When you have a legitimate chalk angle that works you can increase your volume and be a high volume/low margin player. At the end of the year you can have stuffed thru 2.5M, losing 5% and walking away with a 50K profit. All the while cashing some tickets and having some fun.

I am not sure what the bias is about chalk. Some people succeed with it and more power to them as far as I am concerned.

[lamboguy]

r9 mountain.........gotta like the asmussen horse leaving presque isles

[orrug2k]

I think the biggest problem is that its seemingly slow and most players dont want to bet a grand all day and make 50 bucks. They want to make 3k or so. Hit a huge p4. Back when I was playing real money I could not keep from betting other stuff. So winning 50 bucks didnt happen because I bet it all back on the pick 3. I wouldhave to have someone bet for me in a seperate acct so I couldnt play it back. NO telling how much it would be worth..

[lamboguy]

bo sox can't hit


r5 mountain,,,,,,,,6

[MakinItHappen]

I honestly can't think of anywhere, outside of horseracing boards, where 500% annualized growth would be looked down upon. I just don't get it, but then again, I don't really care.

Perhaps some are just playing stupid to throw others of the trail. Otherwise, I have to ask, what kind of ROI do people expect? I sense expectations are way out of line for some. Sounds like some are hoping for a "get rich quick scheme". I wanna hit big and I wanna hit now! Good Luck to ya!

Of course an exotic score is likely going to deliver a higher ROI than a place bet score on an individual play basis, but I would like to see some of those scoffing at the 500% Annual ROI start up a thread and make 50 plays and let's take a look at that ROI.

On the other hand, my intention is not to say that one cannot be a succesful exotic player, I guess my biggest beef is just that this kind of return is being dismissed out of hand! This reaction sends up many RED FLAGS! I do think it would be interesting to see someone step up and post a 50 play thread though. Many of us can learn from little "case studies" like this and I believe it is a very valuable contribution to the board!

Orrug2k - Congrats on stepping up to the plate on this challenge, and I apologize for having been very busy and not being able to follow your plays more closely the last several days, but I sense priorities/expectations may have gone somewhat awry at some point. Chick's LOTD thread became very fun over time but it doesn't have to be an absolute ball bust every hour of the day. In my opinion, a play or two or three... :lol: per day is a pretty good rythym. This makes it possible for many to follow and perhaps comment. Anyway, no offense, just my two cents worth.

Hopefully others will step up and post similar threads. And from my perspective, I don't think the primary objective is necessarily to prove how good of a handicapper you are. This format could be used just to test an approach. For example, given the discussion that CLASS has received on the board I was considering searching out horses with a "class advantage" and tracking them on say a WP basis for 50 plays... just as a learning excercise. Unfortunately, my schedule will not allow for this for at least for the next couple weeks, but perhaps we will take a look at it at some later point.

Best of Luck Everyone!

MakinItHappen

[chickenhead]

Why is that Chick? Because we are handicappers and have egos do we need the big score or something?

To me there are a few solid reasons to play 1st and 2nd choices in this day and age. (imo)

1) They win a lot. It helps people's pschye's when you are winning. And more importantly when you are studying winners, rather than losers you are learning more.

2) Places like Fivedimes have rebates on winning tickets of 10%. Excellent. Betfair has most action on faves. Buying and selling. If you are a serious player, you have to study chalk.

3) General rebates. When you have a legitimate chalk angle that works you can increase your volume and be a high volume/low margin player. At the end of the year you can have stuffed thru 2.5M, losing 5% and walking away with a 50K profit. All the while cashing some tickets and having some fun.

I am not sure what the bias is about chalk. Some people succeed with it and more power to them as far as I am concerned.

Spot on. I don't know where it comes from. Ego, sure. The other misconception is you have to be one or the other. I must have missed the handout where you're only allowed to have either longshot spots or chalk spots, but not both.

I guess it's all good tho, all the smart cappers looking down their noses is why they're profitable in the first place. 2+2=4.

[orrug2k]

get your freak on Bo... you nailed the mountain

[orrug2k]

MAKIN IT HAPPEN... YES WE DID GO AWRY.. BUT IT WAS FUN GOING..NEVER HIRE ME FOR ANY RESEARCH YOU NEED GOOD DATA ON. ESPECIALLY ON A TUES OR MON AFTERNOON. PICKING PLACE HORSES AT ZIA AND WOODLANDS.. WE MUST HAVE LOST OUR MINDS. HAS ANYONE EVER HEARD OF A TRACK CALLED ALB. THATS HOW SICK IT GOT. COMPARING ALB WITH RUI AND SUN SPEED RATINGS.

I THINK YOU MUST STICK TO TRACKS THAT YOU KNOW WELL AND HAVE BEEN RUNNING FOR A FEW MONTHS TO GET GOOD SOLID DATA ON THE HORSES. TOO MANY VARIABLES ARE NOT GOOD WHEN YOU NEED TO PICK 70 PERCENT PLACERS. I WENT 20 OF 24 ON MY PICKS OF HORSES UNDER 5 TO ONE . BEFORE WE WENT OFF TRACK SO TO SPEAK.

[whobet]

They take your money everyday at every track,

if you screw up,

screw up is not a option.

This is a very tough game.

Leave your ego outside, and it's very hard work

and if you have some success, don't get greedy,

stay the course,

or they will take your money,

Just Whobet's humble opinion.

[Light]

I honestly can't think of anywhere, outside of horseracing boards, where 500% annualized growth would be looked down upon.

Are you some kind of financial Guru? How do you get from a 3% ROI to a 500% annualized growth. Suzie Ortman and Donald T. want to know.

[chickenhead]

Are you some kind of financial Guru? How do you get from a 3% ROI to a 500% annualized growth. Suzie Ortman and Donald T. want to know.

It's basic math. Why don't you sit and think about it REAL hard, maybe it will come to you. Or not. Or, you could actually come up with a profitable play, and a wagering strategy, and find out for yourself.

You made an ass of yourself disparaging a 10% ROI a year or two ago, so I'm not surprised. It's apparently beyond you.

[cj]

Are you some kind of financial Guru? How do you get from a 3% ROI to a 500% annualized growth. Suzie Ortman and Donald T. want to know.

Can you turn $10,000 into $50,000 with a 3% ROI in a year? Of course you can, and that is the very best part about horse racing.

[DanG]

Spot on. I don't know where it comes from. Ego, sure. The other misconception is you have to be one or the other. I must have missed the handout where you're only allowed to have either longshot spots or chalk spots, but not both.

I guess it's all good tho, all the smart cappers looking down their noses is why they're profitable in the first place. 2+2=4.
Good points Chick & Dean…

There are several groups of people betting the races and one of them in my opinion is this bunch…

The ones that seek a prize in brilliancy each race.

They live for the moment when they cash with the esoteric pick when the majority is looking over their data to see what they missed. They want to be the “smartest” guy in the crowd almost more than they seek to win.

There are times in this day and age when a winning player MUST learn when to punt on fourth down. Not every race has that ‘nugget of genius that strokes our egos. More players than ever are seeking value and sometimes good gambles are remarkably simple in nature.

[Light]

It's basic math.

Answer the question.

You made an ass of yourself disparaging a 10% ROI a year or two ago, so I'm not surprised. It's apparently beyond you.

I'm not talking about 1 year ago. I'm talking NOW. You made a lousy 3% ROI which isnt even that when you consider your data costs and time. Answer the question.

[Light]

Can you turn $10,000 into $50,000 with a 3% ROI in a year? Of course you can, and that is the very best part about horse racing.

So at a 6% ROI we can all earn decent livings as pros. You should write a book.

[chickenhead]

ROI is a measure of how much you make on each dollar wagered.

Bankroll growth is the ratio of your ending bankroll to your beginning bankroll.

In my sample, I put my bankroll for that play through the windows 5x in just short of 1 month. 5X3 = 15%. My bankroll grew 15%. That's not math trickery, MY BANKROLL GREW 15% (actually more with rebate, but you get the point).

CJ's 10K to 50K:

Starting bankroll: 10K 15% monthly gain:

at the end of month:

1) 11500
2) 13225
3) 15208.75
4) 17490.0625
5) 20113.57188
6) 23130.60766
7) 26600.1988
8) 30590.22863
9) 35178.76292
10) 40455.57736
11) 46523.91396
12) 53502.50105

that's what a 3% ROI can do, pushing 500% of bank through the windows each month. People focus wrongly only on ROI. What is important is volume X ROI. Volume X ROI = MONEY. ROI all by itself doesn't tell you anything.

Any questions?

[Light]

Unfortunately we live in the real world and your conveniet geometric progression does not exist. When someone says they make 3%,that means an average of which there is peaks and valleys. So when you lose 6% in a streak,your little progression is going to go through a regression.

I think you are sugar coating that 3%. You say you put it through the windows 5x and your bankroll is now 15% growth. Why didnt you say you put it through 50x and sugar coat it even more. Bottom line is theoretically it may work,but practically,it doesn't work that way.Thats why there are not many Ernie D's in this game.

[DeanT]

So at a 6% ROI we can all earn decent livings as pros. You should write a book.

Definitely become a pro, Light. It is like printing money if you can make $6 per $100 wagered.

I have never achieved that over a year, which is why I am working before Keeneland today. Anyone playing?

[DeanT]

Unfortunately we live in the real world and your conveniet geometric progression does not exist. When someone says they make 3%,that means an average of which there is peaks and valleys. So when you lose 6% in a streak,your little progression is going to go through a regression.

I think you are sugar coating that 3%. You say you put it through the windows 5x and your bankroll is now 15% growth. Why didnt you say you put it through 50x and sugar coat it even more. Bottom line is theoretically it may work,but practically,it doesn't work that way.

Listen to Chick. He knows what he is talking about.

This is not like a stock which goes up 3% a year on your investment. It is 3% per dollar wagered..... or in investment, 3% on each trade..... it is tantamount to making 3% every two minutes on your money.

[Light]

Keep dreaming

[chickenhead]

I think you are sugar coating that 3%. You say you put it through the windows 5x and your bankroll is now 15% growth. Why didnt you say you put it through 50x and sugar coat it even more. Bottom line is theoretically it may work,but practically,it doesn't work that way.Thats why there are not many Ernie D's in this game.

What are you talking about? This wasn't theoretical, this happened in public, on this board, right in front of you. I'm not saying it was spectacular, I'm just saying what it was. And it's exactly as I described it. I didn't push the money through 50X, I only pushed it through 5X.

Maybe there are not many Ernie D's because many people don't get it, and those that do get it, have a hard time with the discipline required to actually make it work.

[DeanT]

Just do it yourself on a piece of paper Light.

Start with $100. Since you are betting heavy chalk go wild and bet $10 per race. 100 races a month.

If you make 3% on per dollar wagered you made $1000 in bets and you made 3%. That means you ended up with $30 profit on your bets.

At the end of month one your bankroll is $130. You made a 30% return on your original bankroll in that month.

The best part is, now you have $130 as your bankroll, so instead of $10 per bet and $1000 bet per month you bet $13 per race and bet $1300 per month. You make $39 in month two. Your bankroll is now $169 and you made 69% return on your original stake.

And so on.

If you can consistently make 3%, quit your job and put in a real stake. You will never have to go to work at a real job again.

[Light]

CH

What was your starting bankroll?

Did you have a running balance that you posted?

What form of money management did you use,Kelley,fractional Kelley,dartboard?

[nomadpat]

Good points Chick & Dean…

There are several groups of people betting the races and one of them in my opinion is this bunch…

The ones that seek a prize in brilliancy each race.

They live for the moment when they cash with the esoteric pick when the majority is looking over their data to see what they missed. They want to be the “smartest” guy in the crowd almost more than they seek to win.

There are times in this day and age when a winning player MUST learn when to punt on fourth down. Not every race has that ‘nugget of genius that strokes our egos. More players than ever are seeking value and sometimes good gambles are remarkably simple in nature.


Excellent post Dan! I used to suffer from this mentality. I remember doping out the races before hand, come up with my "play of the day" and then see odds of 7/2-4/1 and be upset thinking I would get more for my insight. Most of the time they would win and my buddies would love it when I came up with these picks so they could bet them themselves LOL.
I also remember losing plays because I was looking for that nugget and then see an easy result paying 30+ in the exacta. :bang:
We've scored with those horses where everyone is scratching their heads afterwards and you look like a genius, but I've learned the name of the game is making a profit not seeing who the most brilliant person at the track is. There are brilliant people playing this game and you can't underestimate your competition.

[orrug2k]

imagine a realistic 1000 bankroll and 3 percent win per day on $100 bets. ... how long before you would impact the win or place pools when your increased your imcrements. I would think the wager hits 200 toplace and it wipes out your 3%...although their are alot of people that bet overlays in the place pools with that program. They might wager on the overlays and you would get less of an impact. I can tell you this when I posted my place plays they were bet in the place pools heavily early. Compared to the odds board.

[Jeff P]

Warning - This is a long post. It covers boring subject matter that most players like to avoid... stuff like money management and element of ruin theory... stuff that most pros have to at least consider at some point.

The beautiful thing about horse racing IMHO is that when you have a true positive roi - bankroll growth behaves just like compound interest does. Except that instead of the time period being one year like it is at your bank - it instead becomes one race.

Let's say for the sake of argument that a hypothetical player has a $1000 bankroll, wins 35 percent of his or her plays, and that the avg mutuel is high enough to produce an overall 3 percent positive (1.03) roi. Further, let's say our hypothetical player has kept records and tracked this performance through several thousand plays.

If you could examine his or her records you would notice that he or she had (for reasons nobody may understand) short periods when he or she lost. He or she might have averaged minus 10 percent during any of these losing periods. But you should also notice short periods where he or she was (again, for reasons no one may ever understand) plus 15 percent. In the end - after a very large number of plays -he or she was plus 3 percent.

Because our hypothetical player was able to maintain a 1.03 roi over such a large number of plays you have some basis in reality when you say that he or she has a true 3 percent edge.

IMHO your job as a bettor becomes one of carrying an edge into the long run.

Yes, you have to deal with peaks and valleys. You have to bet in such a way that your bankroll - no matter what the outcome of any single one bet - always remains intact.

Go back to that $1000 playing bankroll. If he or she wanted to our hypothetical player COULD risk the entire $1000 on the very first play that comes along. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that might not be the best strategy for carrying an edge into the long run. The higher the percentage of bankroll bet on each play the higher the element of ruin - the percentage chance our hypothetical player risks of losing the entire bankroll or tapping out.

At the other end of the spectrum he or she could just bet $2.00 on every play that comes along. If our hypothetical player did that - and he or she really did have a 3 percent edge - he or she would have a very low element of ruin or percentage chance of losing the entire bankroll. But it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that with $2.00 bets and a 3 percent edge (6 cents per play) he or she is not going to make a whole lot of money playing horses.

So the answer - the optimal bet size for carrying an edge into the long run - that must be somewhere between the min and max allowable bets - in this case somewhere between $2.00 and $1000.

What if our hypothetical player did this? What if he or she just bet 3 percent of bankroll on every play? What if he or she adjusted the size of bankroll (and the size of the next bet along with it) as soon as the results of each play became known?

If our hypothetical player did this, his or her real world results would start to mimic real world results obtained when working with expected future cash values using compound interest.

There's a formula for that:

Future Cash Value = (Amount) x [(1 + Rate) ^ (Period)]Note: the ^ character is an exponent.

Let me rework that to fit within the context of horse racing:
End Bank = (Start Bank) x [(1 + Rate) ^ (Plays)]

First we need to calculate Rate in terms of the effect the profit that each bet has on bank size. If each bet is 3 pct of bankroll and carries a 3 pct edge then:

Rate = .03 x .03
or
Rate = .0009


Let's take our hypothetical player's 3 percent edge and $1000 bankroll and 3 percent of bankroll bet size through a session of 600 plays and see what we get:

End Bank = ($1000) x [(1.0009) ^ (600)]

or

End Bank = ($1000) x [1.7156]

or

End Bank = $1715.60

Expressed another way, if our hypothetical player is able to do all of the following:

Find 600 plays a year at a true 3 percent edge, and if 3 percent of bankroll as a bet size is not too large from an element of ruin standpoint (it may or may not be depending on win rate, streaks, etc.) and if he or she is able to muster the discipline to apply this form of money management to each of his or her plays - and if he or she is able to muster the discipline to do nothing else (the discipline part is a key point lost on the overwhelming majority of players.)

If our hypothetical player is able to do all of the above (and keep quiet as a mouse about his or her winning ways) then he or she will earn 71.5 percent on his or her money each year... (up to the point that is where the size of his or her own bets starts impacting the odds.)

IMHO, that is one of the things that makes horse racing such a beautiful game.



-jp

.

[orrug2k]

thanks.. good job ........I cant retire on 7oo a year.

[Jeff P]

I can't live on $700 a year either.

So take your own historical edge, the number of plays you find in a year, the amount of money you are willing to put up and risk as a horse racing playing bankroll, the amount of money it takes for your own bets to start impacting the odds at the tracks where you play - and from there you should be able to get a solid handle on what your own expectations might be.


-jp

.

[whobet]

What if you add in the 10% rebate they were talking about earlier.

A 10% rebate on a $2.00 bet is 20 cents,

not bad

[orrug2k]

With a 10 % rebate you should be able to make a boatload...and thats easliy achievable. Not is so cal or on cd but most of these tracks your gonna get that for sure... I think tp was near that and all the minor leagues are high take out and lower competition handicapping wise. But smaller pools.

[whobet]

If you add the 10% rebate=$0.20 0n a $2.00 bet,

Punchy's picks had a positive ROI in WIN,PLACE,SHOW

That were posted on PACE,

Races from 4/9/2007 to 10/6/2007 Days= 181

Picks 981

WinPCT 32.51
Win ROI $1.86 + $0.20 = $2.06

Place Pct 53.82
Place ROI $1.81 + $0.20 = $2.01

Show Pct 68.29
Show ROI $1.83 + $0.20 = $2.03

[DeanT]

That's good Whobet. 7% loss on win bets, without the use of an odds board and late changes is something to be pretty happy with (imo).