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View Full Version : 3 low odds picks


Jerfi
10-16-2007, 09:14 AM
PEN 2 7 expect 4/5

SUF 3 6 expect 2/5

SUF 7 4 expect 3/5

stuball
10-16-2007, 09:45 AM
s'cuse me but why would I want low odds picks?

not being nasty --but would like to know...

Stuball :confused:

Jerfi
10-16-2007, 09:50 AM
s'cuse me but why would I want low odds picks?

not being nasty --but would like to know...

Stuball :confused:


Lots of folks do like to play chalk. A good chalk player can readily pick 70+% winners, and with an average pay of $3, can make very good money.

A $2 parlay using 3 winners can readily return around $7. That would make many folks happy.

Many folks would not play chalk at all. If you don't like chalk, these are obviously not something that should occupy your time! :)

orrug2k
10-16-2007, 10:21 AM
Chalk is not good but specific chalk is much better in the long run than longshots. I would suggest you analyze the race shape for each chalk and then your ROI will skyrocket. Actually extreme chalk is a far better bet than just favorites.

MONEY
10-16-2007, 10:24 AM
PEN 2 7 expect 4/5

SUF 3 6 expect 2/5

SUF 7 4 expect 3/5
Hi Jerfi,
Welcome to the forum & Good Luck with your picks.

Money

Jerfi
10-16-2007, 10:25 AM
Hi Jerfi,
Welcome to the forum & Good Luck with your picks.

Money

Thank you ever so kindly!

1st time lasix
10-16-2007, 02:00 PM
Ladies and gentlemen.....Unfortunately Jerfi is the "posterboy" for eating chalk dust. His philosophy is to bet a lot $ to win a little.... and of course every eight ot nine races when he loses all his principal {and his entire ROI} because his lock 3 to 5 shot misses the board......he starts all over again. Some might think he is a bit dillusional or "in denial" on how to be a winner in a paramutual game. Perhaps he can learn and evolve if he desires to learn from his mistakes.

MONEY
10-16-2007, 03:52 PM
Ladies and gentlemen.....Unfortunately Jerfi is the "posterboy" for eating chalk dust. His philosophy is to bet a lot $ to win a little.... and of course every eight ot nine races when he loses all his principal {and his entire ROI} because his lock 3 to 5 shot misses the board......he starts all over again. Some might think he is a bit dillusional or "in denial" on how to be a winner in a paramutual game. Perhaps he can learn and evolve if he desires to learn from his mistakes.
http://i82.photobucket.com/albums/j244/Simulcaster/images7.jpg

Do you have ESP? I find it amazing that you could tell so much about a person from one simple selections post.
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Here's a sad true story about chalk.

One day a few years ago I got into the Beat the Chalk mentality. So I decided to look for 10 horse fields. Why? Because I wanted to be sure that the chalk would lose some of the races & I didn't feel like handicapping larger fields. So I found twelve 10 horse fields and handicapped them without taking the ML favorite into consideration. After handicapping I boxed exactas using 3 horses in each race, then went about my business. At the end of the day I checked the results and was unpleasantly surprised to find that all of the ML favorites did go off as chalk and did win all 12 races. Had I just played the ML favorite over my picks in exactas and triples I would have hit 10 exactas & 6 triples and cashed over $1,200.00.
While I'm still not a chalk player, I learned that day the the object of the game is not to Beat the Chalk but instead is Do Not get Beat by the Chalk.

Money

lamboguy
10-16-2007, 03:57 PM
i would love to find someone that will book my play on the off favorites every race today. with the invention of betting after the bell these days the off favorite seems to win alot now aday, years ago i use to call the break at the racetrack with about 15 seconds into the race. today with the black boxes it seems like someone can get into the pools at the top of the stretch.


go try to beat parimutuel races these days, its tuff

DeanT
10-16-2007, 04:05 PM
I think Chickenhead and Org on their threads are proving that there is room for many types of play.

I've always been interested in chalk. Why wouldn't we? If you can find a way to play them successfully, you are simultaneously finding a way to play against them successfully.

njcurveball
10-16-2007, 04:23 PM
i would love to find someone that will book my play on the off favorites every race today.

Do you think it is just today? Do you actually feel this is a profit maker over time?

Enigma
10-16-2007, 09:01 PM
Jerfi plays a major roll in running the ************.com board which seems to be on the skids.
He originates many of the contests on the board, my feelings are that he sees the writing on the wall and is now trying to establish himself on this board. So far not a good start