Larceny at Belmont

[BETKING]

I just got screwed by the 4 horse in the 4th race at Belmont. What bothers me is that I didn't even get a kiss !!! If you can tell me why that horse won that race, please do ! :confused:

[BW~!]

Showed good pace at FL and has decent turf breeding. I did not bet the race but stranger things certainly have happened.

[jognlope]

I was wondering if anyone got lucky on that one.

[OTM Al]

Please see my bad beat thread. Then, once you figure it out, let me know as I'm still wondering about that one and the same rules must apply.

[point given]

I just got screwed by the 4 horse in the 4th race at Belmont. What bothers me is that I didn't even get a kiss !!! If you can tell me why that horse won that race, please do ! :confused:

The old Buckley on the turf angle ? :rolleyes: :bang: :bang: :rolleyes:

[njcurveball]

On the turf, many jockeys feel obligated to take a hold on their horses at the start.

Simple explanation here is that you had a 3 year old filly in great form (never out of the money in her life), being given an easy lead by jocks who are too smart for their own good.

Why does Coa have #6 Judge's Pride under a hold at the start? Last race on the lead with 21.9, 44.6 pace, today 5 lengths back with a 22.4, 45.9 pace.

You also had to lead the positive rider switch to Bridgmohan. Looks like it was a definite play given the long odds!

The only bad beat here was that the other jocks decided to spot this horse 6 lengths out of lack of respect!

[BIG49010]

Dam Sire 2 /7 in Turf sprints at Belmont also.

[BETKING]

After comparing all the attributes of the 4 horse to the rest of the field, would you still have picked this horse to win ? I doubt it.

[jotb]

Very hard to like a horse where the trainer has run in over a 1k races and coming into the race he had only ran 1 other turf race in his career. That horse finished up the track. I guarantee it was the owners (David Ahearn) idea to run on the turf since the owner also has the full sister (intrepid woman) and she ran on the turf only once and ran decent. Intrepid Woman is still a maiden and Buckley trains her as well. More than likely, the owner also has the dam Gaelic Luck. Gaelic Luck has another daughter by the name of Sunshine Sue and I believe she never made it to the races. Maybe when Intrepid Woman returns from the shelf they will give her another shot on the turf.

joe

[Ted Craven]

I did not bet or even look at this race until I saw this post, so not to suggest I would have been so lucky in this race. However, may I offer for your consideration that this is not so odd a result as might seem. This analysis is from applying a Sartin Methodology approach, along with one of the newer tools (RDSS), though users of later versions of Validator or Speculator should have gotten a similar result:

The screenshot shows the (more-or-less aggregate) Analysis screen. The approach was to include a line for every horse, trying for a Turf sprint if possible, picking a good finish (if possible) against the best recent Pace of Race Total Energy. Then narrow the field down to the Top 5 and ties Total Energy.

The main 'decision' would be whether to include a line for the #4 (winner) at all as she's never run on Turf before. In practise, this decision probably has to be consistent with a regularly applied approach, but here, the horse was improving with each race, was arguably dead-fit, and was not a proven loser on Turf (I have no information about Turf breeding). Let the raw lines be adjusted by ITVs and DTVs and it projects with the top Total Energies. Finally, the 33-1 odds offered make the decision easier given how well it rates on the array of Methodology factors. Even if it does nothing, I can hear Doc Sartin saying "$2.00 across the board..."

In the event, I used the last line for the remaining 5 Contenders. Again, not to suggest I would have gotten this race, just to show that given a repeatable approach with a particular method, it can make a bit more sense.

Cheers

Ted
http://www.artofpace.com/images/pa/bel1014-4.gif

[46zilzal]

And folks continue to knock the Sartin approach.......

[njcurveball]

After comparing all the attributes of the 4 horse to the rest of the field, would you still have picked this horse to win ? I doubt it.


We can agree to disagree on what this game is all about. IN my mind, it is all about the value and if this had been a contest race or one that I handicapped, my line on the 4 horse would have been roughly 10-1.

The fact that a horse CAN get the lead is enough to consider betting it in North America. I don't view this game as "picking the winner" or trying to cash as many tickets as possible.

Your original post said you got "screwed" by this horse, so I took a look expecting to see a bunch of nines and tens in the finsh part with ugly numbers all around.

As the old cappers use to say "this horse had bones". Certainly would not have been my top choice, but most people really do not make any money betting favorites.

You asked a question and we answered it, why does that make you mad?