The Bad Beat: A Study in Pain

[OTM Al]

The bad beat. We've all had them. I may have just had the worst of my career yesterday. Between curses it made me reflect on exactly what makes a bad beat. I will use my experience as a case study (and as therapy for mayself....)

My plays are not doing well. No tickets have been cashed, though there is plenty of card left and 2 races I'm very interested in are still coming up. Been here before, no big deal. Just down about $200, but I generally cut off at $300, just my level of play. Not doing horribly that aside. I'm an exacta player and I'm getting my top horse in and then getting split more often than not. Happens, but I know I am close, so it usually evens out. Time for the races I've been looking forward to.

First off we have the Calder Derby. Imawildandcrazyguy is running. He's been madly overbet since the Derby. I expect the same here and feel there are several that should be better here, in particular the 10 horse. I think the 2 and 8 look better than Imawildandcrazywasteofmoney as well. $20 exacta 10/2+8. 10 takes command in the stretch and is leading both the 2 and 8 down the lane in a beautiful flying wedge formation. Both exactas are paying a little over $40, so this gets me out of the hole and then some.

This is where the bad beat begins. That damn horse sneaks up the rail and nips in for 2nd. I am upset, but I shake it off. Ok, that happens. Just got split again. But now you have your bomb of the day coming up in a few minutes. Belmont. 8th race. State NW1X. The horse of the day, Mockingbird Lane, #3. He has raced at Belmont and wasn't bad. He spent the summer in Iowa and though he didn't win, he did very well, more than well enough to come back and take a SNW1X. Yes, he had a bad first race back, but this time his Iowa jock was in town to ride him. This is a big sign to me. I love this angle. I don't like the favorite, 4, much at all but I also like the 10 horse and the 9 to a lesser extent, but pretty sure if anything that guy is only a candidate for third. I buy a $10 box exacta (3+10) and to be on the safe side in case I'm missing something I go ahead and buy (3+4) for $10. Then I key 3/4+9+10 in a tri.The race is developing nicely. The 9 has the lead, but the 3 is on him and the 10 is moving nicely. They get all bunched together but I can tell its going to be 3-10-9. That's a nearly $200 exacta 5 times plus the tri, which would have paid well considering the public let the 3 go at a lucious 17-1. Then it happens......The bad beat come to full fruition

The 2 horse was a joke as far as the win end goes. He had been filler for the exotics on a few occasions in his career, but he had 1 win in 45 starts. He had 0 wins in 22 tries at the distance. These were in statebred races. His whole PP line was full with SNW1X. But not today....not today. Just as my beloved 17-1 3 horse is winning his duel, this nag comes like a shot down the middle of the course to win by about 2 lengths. Somehow this fellow only went off at 14-1 when it should have been around 60-1. The exacta was almost $500 and everything else was through the roof. I had tipped a guy to the 3 and I know he bet a 1+2+3 box before he left. He was playing numbers. He owes me a beer.

I quietly packed up my form and notebook, paid my bill and left. Some things you just can't come back from in a day.....

[alysheba88]

Where is the bad beat?

[JustRalph]

I got DQ'ed three times out of Exacta's this week.............one that wuold have paid me over a grand

had another that broke down on the lead..................

turn the page............... :bang:

[ddog]

Al,

Don't turn the page on this one.
I don't know what your goals are for your horse betting, but if they are to make money please re-read your post and think about the betting part of it.

I don't want to sound like a know-it-all(I am not) but the first 2-3 years(long ago) that I bet ponies I played like I suspect you did that day.

Not good at all unles you are just playing for fun.

I am not trying to bust you on this, just really think about the following:

why were you playing any other race before the 17-1 bomb of the day?

what could you have done if you would have played your whole 300 to cover that race?

You mentioned the guy you tipped to the 3 and that he was just playing numbers to get the 1-2-3 box for the 500.00 ex.

But, you said you didn't like the 4(the fav) in the race and yet you played money on him(just a number , right?) in case you missed something.

14-1 on a horse I make 60-1 will get my attention everytime!

I think you actually experienced a bad bet(not beat). :)
Good luck with your next nose anyway.

Again, just from reading what you posted in this thread is all I am basing the previous on, if I am off-base with that then I apologize in advance.

[OTM Al]

I know what you are saying ddog, but I don't like that method of play. I prefer to narrow my choices and hit them hard (for me). It has actually greatly improved my bottom line as it causes me to better see and avoid races where my opinions aren't firm. Playing an All/3 or 3/all exacta would just be something I wouldn't do. If I liked just the 3 in such a case I would have somehow managed to force myself to place a win bet. My concession to spreading out was including the favorite because he did look possible, just not likely, and playing a trifecta, which I rarely do. The eventual winner however looked like he'd lose no matter what he'd run against. 99 times out of a hundred (well, 44 out of 46) including him was a complete waste of money. A worse trip on the 3 and your suggestion blows the whole roll for the day in one race as well. I had some other plays that were good plays during the day. The fact that they didn't pan out doesn't mean that they weren't good picks, just didn't work out. Happens. Playing the way you suggest will certainly have big rewards when it works out and if it works for you, then you are doing the right thing. I am pretty sure however such a way of playing won't work for me. I'm up for the year (and if I would have ignored Saratoga I'd be up a lot....) and this works for me. Besides, the piece was meant as a bit of dark comedy anyway. Ralph gets it. Turn the page or as my friend Tom would say, next case.

[1st time lasix]

I had the "bad beat" at Keeneland Saturday. Alive to two horses in the early pick four. My higher priced horse comes running hard at the end of the turf race and misses by a long nose. Gallops out right past the winner over the next three strides. Not only do i lose the Pick four .....but i have that same horse in the middle leg of a pick three with a $20 horse in on the first leg and a high priced shot which hits in the third! Cost me at least 3 grand maybe 4. I shook my head....paid the bill and went to the gym to eliminate all my stress with something good for my body. My enthusiam was gone. Of couse all my birdie putts on the golf course lipped out that morning too. :bang: Back to play another day!

[point given]

I had the "bad beat" at Keeneland Saturday. Alive to two horses in the early pick four. My higher priced horse comes running hard at the end of the turf race and misses by a long nose. Gallops out right past the winner over the next three strides. Not only do i lose the Pick four .....but i have that same horse in the middle leg of a pick three with a $20 horse in on the first leg and a high priced shot which hits in the third! Cost me at least 3 grand maybe 4. I shook my head....paid the bill and went to the gym to eliminate all my stress with something good for my body. My enthusiam was gone. Of couse all my birdie putts on the golf course lipped out that morning too. :bang: Back to play another day!

Yeah, been there before. Question is, do you put all your $$ in the picks and then don't bet individual horses to win or in exactas to at least get paid something if you like the LS horses you include ? Do you take out any insurance for your p3/4 bets if live in the last leg ? or if the middle leg, of p3 if you got a price horse home in the first leg ? Birdie putts ? I'm usually getting the lippers on the par putts :D

[WJ47]

Once I lost 16 consecutives pick 3's and pick 4's by one horse. Horse racing is so fun, but so frustrating too! :)

My worst beat was the bet I never placed. My sister and I were up at the OTB to bet the Kentucky Derby. My sister is a great handicapper, but a silly bettor sometimes. She loves to bet birthdays in the big races because she is of the opinion that anything can happen in the Derby or Breeder's Cup. She can enjoy betting her birthday in many races, LOL, she was born on Oct 9. She asked me if I were going to bet my birthday (Oct 18). I looked at the horses that would be involved in that exacta, 50/1 Giacomo and 70/1 Closing Argument and laughed! Well, that's exactly how the 2005 Derby ended with 10/18 exacta paying like $10,000!

I tend to have pretty bad luck, so I feel that if I had placed that exacta that day, the results would have been different and Giacomo wouldn't have won that race. :lol: For the last 2 derby's, I've bet the 10/18 exacta anyway. I bet for the rest of my life, that combination will never come in again.

For me, the absolute worst bad beats are disqualifications or the jockey falling off the horse when I'm live to a single in the last race of a pick 4. It's really maddening when that happens. I think that horseracing probably isn't the best game for those with high blood pressure or nervous conditions. I don't bet much anymore because I'm busy with full-time college, but there have been many days of betting in the past where I've had to pop a valium!

[1st time lasix]

Yeah, been there before. Question is, do you put all your $$ in the picks and then don't bet individual horses to win or in exactas to at least get paid something if you like the LS horses you include ? Do you take out any insurance for your p3/4 bets if live in the last leg ? or if the middle leg, of p3 if you got a price horse home in the first leg ? Birdie putts ? I'm usually getting the lippers on the par putts :D PG: Good questions. I usually play both vertically and horizontally at the windows my friend. Try to figure out where I can best play the upside with my bankroll. I only play Pick Threes and Fours if i think I can play around the favorite in the first leg based on sound handicapping. I seek "vulnerability" which I don't always find. If not and the favorite is compelling....I might pass or seek a trifecta/super with a longer shot second. I NEVER play two public choices first and second on my same race exotics. To answer your question. I will do some hedging in a final leg of a pick four after seeing the "will pays." I generally just want to get my investment out at least.....maybe cover the days play if it is a likely signer.

[joeya]

Worst beat for me is a no-brainer, although technically it was simply a dumb a$$ move on my part ... two years ago there was a $1 million Pick-Six carryover at Churchill Downs. My selections for the sequence were:

Race 5 - (1) Aly's Commander, (5) Deputy Banker
Race 6 - (5) For Always, (9) Slew Peg
Race 7 - (1) Admiral's Arch, (12) Hallowed Flag, (3) Vast
Race 8 - (1) Road Show, (9) Doc Robbins
Race 9 - (9) Sundrop, (10) Lenateresse, (8) Movie Star, (4) Finely
Race 10 - (2) Arch Assault, (7) Proud Comic

Total ticket - $384

Since this type of carryover is a rare occurence at Churchill the place was packed and the lines very long. I got the ticket in with no trouble, but noticed back at the table that the clerk had given me the (7) in Race 9 instead of the (8) ... I get back in line to change the ticket but now it's nearing post time and the line is barely moving. I get to the window as the horses head into the gate and the clerk cancels the wrong ticket, but she is unable to punch out the correct ticket before the race goes off. So, while I got my investment back you can imagine what happens next...

Race 5 - (1) Aly's Commander ... $9.60
Race 6 - (5) For Always ... $9.00
Race 7 - (1) Admiral's Arch ... $14.60
Race 8 - (1) Road Show ... $7.00
Race 9 - (9) Sundrop ... $17.20
Race 10 - (2) Arch Assault ... $3.80

The Pick-Six comes back $32,865.20 -- my top selection had won every race! The number that the clerk punched in wrong initially didn't matter at all!!

But what do you do? Keep an incorrect ticket and take your chances? No ... but what you should do is check your tickets before you leave the window! Simple advice that I didn't follow in this case ...

I still have the sheet of notebook paper on which I laid out my Pick-Six ticket. It comes in handy from time to time ... it goes well with a glass of Woodford!

[ddog]

I know what you are saying ddog, but I don't like that method of play. I prefer to narrow my choices and hit them hard (for me). It has actually greatly improved my bottom line as it causes me to better see and avoid races where my opinions aren't firm. Playing an All/3 or 3/all exacta would just be something I wouldn't do. If I liked just the 3 in such a case I would have somehow managed to force myself to place a win bet. My concession to spreading out was including the favorite because he did look possible, just not likely, and playing a trifecta, which I rarely do. The eventual winner however looked like he'd lose no matter what he'd run against. 99 times out of a hundred (well, 44 out of 46) including him was a complete waste of money. A worse trip on the 3 and your suggestion blows the whole roll for the day in one race as well. I had some other plays that were good plays during the day. The fact that they didn't pan out doesn't mean that they weren't good picks, just didn't work out. Happens. Playing the way you suggest will certainly have big rewards when it works out and if it works for you, then you are doing the right thing. I am pretty sure however such a way of playing won't work for me. I'm up for the year (and if I would have ignored Saratoga I'd be up a lot....) and this works for me. Besides, the piece was meant as a bit of dark comedy anyway. Ralph gets it. Turn the page or as my friend Tom would say, next case.

ok, as I said , no harm no foul.

good luck.

next

[whyhorseofcourse]

I dont mind bad beats. Its part of the game and makes it more interesting.
But I do mind this.
Penn National about a month ago.
Loved everything about the 6 horse. Played a $30 exacta straight 6-1.
The race is a mile if I recall. The one takes a huge lead, every other horse is pretty much dead tired from the start. It was a typical Penn National race where every horse looks like they are walking.
The 6 was stalking nicely and makes his move.
He cleared the 1 in the stretch and what happens??
Falls on his face. I dont mind losing but I really dont like seeing horses go down. I felt terrible after the fact, not because I lost but because the horse proablly had to be killed.