What's overbet on dirt-early or late speed?

[shanta]

I used to feel that early speed was overbet in the pools.Thinking has changed 180 degrees and I now feel late speed is overbet.

6.5 and 7 furlong races are the only distances I can make a case for late speed in what I do. Especially 6.5.

Your thoughts?

[Overlay]

Would you have to differentiate between dirt and artificial surfaces?

[shanta]

Would you have to differentiate between dirt and artificial surfaces?

Overlay,
My observation(right or wrong) is based on dirt. People's thoughts on any of the surfaces are most welcome.
Richie

[46zilzal]

Traditionally people like the closer.

[Overlay]

Thinking has changed 180 degrees and I now feel late speed is overbet.

6.5 and 7 furlong races are the only distances I can make a case for late speed in what I do. Especially 6.5.

I can see where people might look to late speed to try to get a price, to the point that it becomes overbet. If so, I think the "traditional" arguments and findings favoring early speed on regular dirt (especially in shorter races) still hold true, and would then offer value as a bonus. It's easier to win if a horse doesn't have to depend on being able to navigate through traffic (not a guarantee by any means, but an ongoing general trend).

[46zilzal]

Too many rookies look at finishing position in the DRF over pace and get this skewed idea. I am amazed at how few actually know WHERE on the track, the horses actually are situated at each call.

Go through a crowd sometimes and ask the simple question: I am a novice here. Could you tell me where on the race track the horses are at this 2nd call? Few actually know. Most think the calls are symmetrical.

[andicap]

theory on why early speed might be underbet -

people are more "sophisticated" about pace handicapping than they used to be. I put that in quotes because they are really not. So when they see several speeds in the race they figure they will all die and they look for the closer. Never consider the "speed of the speed" scenario.

And people may not be as skillful in finding horses about to flash improved early speed -- there are clues in the PPs but most don't know where to find them.

[cj]

To answer the original question, without a doubt, late speed is overbet. Anytime I try to tweak my ratings to place less emphasis on early speed, I pay for it ROI wise on dirt.