Suff
01-05-2003, 09:02 AM
Can we do it again? Two days in a row? I think so. After all.. there just horses. And the mood is there... The mood to win.
I like a 20-1 moring line for starters.. but we'll get to him.
NY,,, Race 1 MDCLM.... 50K
#1. Spank (6-1)... Better for the race to be sure. But the issue I have is,, if you put stock in the "Roughed up" comment... the thing I'd like to see is "STUCK to TASK" .... And I don't. I see a horse that got bumped and gave up,, and gave up big,, Losing distance to a last 1/4 in 26. despite never making any kind of middle move to justify the Energy exertion to lose those lengths. A runner would have at least Lugged in a few lengths. Trainer stats are impressive, but based on small samples. I'm not sure Lasix is gonna help this guy,,, Unless he bled in the post parade?
His two works post debut are not any better, and I assume he was medicated for one or both of them. The race he comes out of is important,, but not for this guy. They'll bet this guy a Little.. but I won't.
#2 Wildski (5-1) This one has has a nice look to it... Many things going for HIM. Pedigree and trainer are solid... Mommy is a very solid MARE. Sire's too new to say. Here's the issue... His 3F works are snail slow. They are all close to 40. That aint gonna get it done... No matter what... His 4f's look a lil better. Tough to tell, if they are just stretching his legs,, But with 4 3f's on display.. and all sooooo very slow,,, I gotta think he is just to slow to get going... But he may have a LATE Gear that does something.. But ,, a firster going 6 furlongs.. hard to bet into that , with a ML of 5-1... the blind Bettor might just follow that and take any value away. Gryder up aint gonna help the price either... passing, 2nd look after scratches and post parade maybe.
#3 Revered Scholar 4-1) Anyone tell me why this guys runs 5th by 13 and gets a comment of Failed to Respond and gets the 2nd FAVORITE status in this race>? His best of 15 did'nt show up in the race.. and he ran an equally as good work last week.. The race he ran is important.. but not to him. To me. Like any other in here,,, has right to improve,, No LASIX,,, watch for that late change in the AM.. horse looks like a canditate for it. Johnson is GREAT with these types,,, and for that he's an inclusion.... But betting this horse would be a step above a BEST GUESS.. and I haev another in here thats a better guess.
#4 Real Wildcat (7-2) All you need to know... he's your ML Fav. Don't see many 7-2 Fav's in NY... This is a GUESS RACE. All his races have been fast. He's been dead in everyone before they are half over. Nothing about this horse... and I looked hard... Makes me wanna bet any money on him. especially his outing in the slop where he earned a 3 beyer. A 3 beyer. been bet everytime... I'll wait until he's back in NJ in a MDCLM10,000.
#5 nolimosforyou (10-1) I like this one. he debuted with lasix last out. tried a lil diffrent strategy of Rating a bit.. Problem was,, he caught allysweep... great horse,, won that race.. and won her next as well... With 2nd Lasix... The drop down.. Jockey and trainer having a tremendous meet,, he's on my tickets. I was there in saratoga on Aug 31... I was right up on the race,,, 1st balcony row 2. ANd this Horse almost stole that race at 42-1...he was a length off the lead with a 200 yards to go and got checked up...and collappsed... running line is decieving.... Note the beyer in that and his next out... a 60 and 75. His next race was a first of an extended layoff,,, next out he caught a monster... and now here he comes.... He has some GREAT SPRINT pedigree. and yes I know the beyers are on TURF...But Has Mr. Pospector Blood line and is a full to Robyns Dancer .........................
ROBYN DANCER (Sword Dancer):
9 wins, 2 to 4, $622,906, Triple Bend H. [G3]-NWR, 7 ½ furlongs in 1:27, Vanlandingham S. [L] (PIM, $45,000), Bay Meadows Breeders' Cup H. (BM, $84,728),
Big Improvement today for nolimonsforyou... he's on the Ticket.
6 MightyG...(15-1) Unknown Commodity ,, daddy was lightly raced, but Grade 1 winner... Mommy has two other Foals,, One has won. I do like the Jerkens Crew , but the works are slow. and it'd be a guess.
#7 Careless humor (20-1) Of all these, this one has the right to improve the most...... and has the most room for improvemnet. Interesting things about her two races. This horse raced in the Dec 8 YPfive race... was 11th by 17 lengths.. Well "Spank" #1 was 10th by 16 1/2 lengths and he's installed at 6-1 here. His next race,, which again looks terrible.. and maybe why he's 20-1. was the ALLYSWEEP race.. But whats interesting about that race is this HORSE had the lead that day.. and this horse ran with those horses for almost 4 furlongs. Matter of fact.. at the top of the stretch... This horse was as close tro ALLYSweep as Revered Scholar #3 (4-1).......BUT... This horse is getting Lasix Today and With the medication,,, This HOrse DRILLED A BULLET best of 32...7 days ago. And the work before that of 3f in 36 flat is strong for this level. And this horse has JENNIFER Pederson, who is Excellent with young horses... Maybe the best in the country. In NY,,, its a class drop to go from MDSPWT to a 75K claimer for sure... But the drop from a 75K to a 50K is four times as big as the SPWT drop to 75K. Here's what I have with this horse... A horse that has shown he wants to race.. By flashing early speed,, a horse that is learning the game.. that bled and is getting lasix... and a horse that caught some TOUGH horses on an off day. Sprint Pedigree? Distorted Humor... On kentucky Derby day 1998... His daddy..Distorted Humor,, set the TRACK record at Churchill downs @ 7 furlongs... 121.18
#8 makarumba (8-1)
Takes a big drop to 50k and that alone is enough to take serious.. can't realy give him an excuse in last.. Last work was a crawl.. been medicated in all three... Could jump up and steal it.. But nothing I see,,, beyind the class drop,,,inspires me.. remember all of these are dropping,,so he does'nt have that class edge on most of these. Does have two bullets... Give him a GOOD LOOK
#9 Luca luca...(5-1) at the 30K level he closed into last 1/4 that went close to a 28... and the race was a slow 114.1 ... Now he steps up... works are crawls. Can't see it. Unless you see this race collapsing.. and I don't.
#10 Big swinnger... 12-1....... has some good things going for him.. Mommy has dropped two Brothers and both have won. At the Adena Auction in In november 2002.. Fasig Tipton sold 6 lots from Friendly Lover . He was the #1 selling sire that day. Horse should run... Its tough to win at first asking.. from the 10 hole as well,.. and he may need one... buts its gambling and I'm gambling he won't
Selections 7-5-10
I like a 20-1 moring line for starters.. but we'll get to him.
NY,,, Race 1 MDCLM.... 50K
#1. Spank (6-1)... Better for the race to be sure. But the issue I have is,, if you put stock in the "Roughed up" comment... the thing I'd like to see is "STUCK to TASK" .... And I don't. I see a horse that got bumped and gave up,, and gave up big,, Losing distance to a last 1/4 in 26. despite never making any kind of middle move to justify the Energy exertion to lose those lengths. A runner would have at least Lugged in a few lengths. Trainer stats are impressive, but based on small samples. I'm not sure Lasix is gonna help this guy,,, Unless he bled in the post parade?
His two works post debut are not any better, and I assume he was medicated for one or both of them. The race he comes out of is important,, but not for this guy. They'll bet this guy a Little.. but I won't.
#2 Wildski (5-1) This one has has a nice look to it... Many things going for HIM. Pedigree and trainer are solid... Mommy is a very solid MARE. Sire's too new to say. Here's the issue... His 3F works are snail slow. They are all close to 40. That aint gonna get it done... No matter what... His 4f's look a lil better. Tough to tell, if they are just stretching his legs,, But with 4 3f's on display.. and all sooooo very slow,,, I gotta think he is just to slow to get going... But he may have a LATE Gear that does something.. But ,, a firster going 6 furlongs.. hard to bet into that , with a ML of 5-1... the blind Bettor might just follow that and take any value away. Gryder up aint gonna help the price either... passing, 2nd look after scratches and post parade maybe.
#3 Revered Scholar 4-1) Anyone tell me why this guys runs 5th by 13 and gets a comment of Failed to Respond and gets the 2nd FAVORITE status in this race>? His best of 15 did'nt show up in the race.. and he ran an equally as good work last week.. The race he ran is important.. but not to him. To me. Like any other in here,,, has right to improve,, No LASIX,,, watch for that late change in the AM.. horse looks like a canditate for it. Johnson is GREAT with these types,,, and for that he's an inclusion.... But betting this horse would be a step above a BEST GUESS.. and I haev another in here thats a better guess.
#4 Real Wildcat (7-2) All you need to know... he's your ML Fav. Don't see many 7-2 Fav's in NY... This is a GUESS RACE. All his races have been fast. He's been dead in everyone before they are half over. Nothing about this horse... and I looked hard... Makes me wanna bet any money on him. especially his outing in the slop where he earned a 3 beyer. A 3 beyer. been bet everytime... I'll wait until he's back in NJ in a MDCLM10,000.
#5 nolimosforyou (10-1) I like this one. he debuted with lasix last out. tried a lil diffrent strategy of Rating a bit.. Problem was,, he caught allysweep... great horse,, won that race.. and won her next as well... With 2nd Lasix... The drop down.. Jockey and trainer having a tremendous meet,, he's on my tickets. I was there in saratoga on Aug 31... I was right up on the race,,, 1st balcony row 2. ANd this Horse almost stole that race at 42-1...he was a length off the lead with a 200 yards to go and got checked up...and collappsed... running line is decieving.... Note the beyer in that and his next out... a 60 and 75. His next race was a first of an extended layoff,,, next out he caught a monster... and now here he comes.... He has some GREAT SPRINT pedigree. and yes I know the beyers are on TURF...But Has Mr. Pospector Blood line and is a full to Robyns Dancer .........................
ROBYN DANCER (Sword Dancer):
9 wins, 2 to 4, $622,906, Triple Bend H. [G3]-NWR, 7 ½ furlongs in 1:27, Vanlandingham S. [L] (PIM, $45,000), Bay Meadows Breeders' Cup H. (BM, $84,728),
Big Improvement today for nolimonsforyou... he's on the Ticket.
6 MightyG...(15-1) Unknown Commodity ,, daddy was lightly raced, but Grade 1 winner... Mommy has two other Foals,, One has won. I do like the Jerkens Crew , but the works are slow. and it'd be a guess.
#7 Careless humor (20-1) Of all these, this one has the right to improve the most...... and has the most room for improvemnet. Interesting things about her two races. This horse raced in the Dec 8 YPfive race... was 11th by 17 lengths.. Well "Spank" #1 was 10th by 16 1/2 lengths and he's installed at 6-1 here. His next race,, which again looks terrible.. and maybe why he's 20-1. was the ALLYSWEEP race.. But whats interesting about that race is this HORSE had the lead that day.. and this horse ran with those horses for almost 4 furlongs. Matter of fact.. at the top of the stretch... This horse was as close tro ALLYSweep as Revered Scholar #3 (4-1).......BUT... This horse is getting Lasix Today and With the medication,,, This HOrse DRILLED A BULLET best of 32...7 days ago. And the work before that of 3f in 36 flat is strong for this level. And this horse has JENNIFER Pederson, who is Excellent with young horses... Maybe the best in the country. In NY,,, its a class drop to go from MDSPWT to a 75K claimer for sure... But the drop from a 75K to a 50K is four times as big as the SPWT drop to 75K. Here's what I have with this horse... A horse that has shown he wants to race.. By flashing early speed,, a horse that is learning the game.. that bled and is getting lasix... and a horse that caught some TOUGH horses on an off day. Sprint Pedigree? Distorted Humor... On kentucky Derby day 1998... His daddy..Distorted Humor,, set the TRACK record at Churchill downs @ 7 furlongs... 121.18
#8 makarumba (8-1)
Takes a big drop to 50k and that alone is enough to take serious.. can't realy give him an excuse in last.. Last work was a crawl.. been medicated in all three... Could jump up and steal it.. But nothing I see,,, beyind the class drop,,,inspires me.. remember all of these are dropping,,so he does'nt have that class edge on most of these. Does have two bullets... Give him a GOOD LOOK
#9 Luca luca...(5-1) at the 30K level he closed into last 1/4 that went close to a 28... and the race was a slow 114.1 ... Now he steps up... works are crawls. Can't see it. Unless you see this race collapsing.. and I don't.
#10 Big swinnger... 12-1....... has some good things going for him.. Mommy has dropped two Brothers and both have won. At the Adena Auction in In november 2002.. Fasig Tipton sold 6 lots from Friendly Lover . He was the #1 selling sire that day. Horse should run... Its tough to win at first asking.. from the 10 hole as well,.. and he may need one... buts its gambling and I'm gambling he won't
Selections 7-5-10