RAVEL RETURNS - Solid Favorite or Jackpot Underlay?

[Robert Fischer]

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_90620.pdf

950k Pletcher/Tabor Fusaichi Pegasus Ravel returns to action at odds of 6/5 on Friday 10/12.
He returns off a 251 day layoff for a cannon bone injury.

Alw54n2x 8.5furlongs Keeneland Polytrack
12 horse field


tough to call. This guy started with 2 solid races on artificial. Last race was an impressive win in the Sham stakes. Has been training forwardly.


Thoughts? Opinions?

[badcompany]

Looks like they found a good spot for him. Not much to beat in that field.

That said. You're still looking at a long layoff, short price situation. I spent a good part of August in Saratoga watching Pletcher burn money. Not my kind of betting race.

[OTM Al]

Looks like a good one to either stand against if you can find solid ground, or avoid with extreme prejudice to me as well. Badcompany forgot to mention the dirt to poly switch as another one to throw into the pot of great unknowns on a horse that looked nice once upon a time on dirt, but just solid on the fake stuff.

[john del riccio]

I thought he won very professionally early in his 3yo year.

John

[Robert Fischer]

I think there is a fair chance that Ravel can be beaten here.
:confused: However, none of the others really stands out as a winner to me.



contenders?
Smokeyjonessutton = professional horse without much "kick", professional jockey

Prom shoes = the freshening could help, I actually like the slow work because a danger to flatten.

Galloping Home = this is a nice cheap polytrack closer. Was in a comfort zone, and then Williamson/Oak Knoll went haywire with the placement in last 2.

Special Event = 2 nice polytrack runs , a little bit of class and stamina...
not so crazy about last following layoff, and the 2 slow works since

Apache Road = decent form , looks like an extended sprinter , quit in only poly

[Frank Angst]

Single this one in the pick four and spend your time handicapping the other three.
out

[Robert Fischer]

I have constructed a .10 ticket for practice, but I do not feel that this wager gives me an edge, and will not be investing in it.

I am using my contenders list (Smokeyjonessutton, Prom shoes,Galloping Home, Special Event, Apache Road), along with +Ravel to build the structure. In the 3rd and 4th positions I will include Darrin Miller's Baceto, and Helen Pitt's Sleek Hunter. In the 4th position longshot All Man is included.
I am keying Galloping Home, Smokey Jonessutton, and Ravel in the 3rd and 4th positions.


234579
234579
379
2345789,11,12 = $36

234579
234579
234579,11,12
379 = $30

Total = $66 (would need 1 winning ticket @ $1,320 or 2 @ $660 )

Jackpot = Ravel finishes 5th or wose & 2 winning tickets :faint:

[alysheba88]

Single this one in the pick four and spend your time handicapping the other three.
out

A strategy to go broke by. Singling an overbet horse everyone else will be doing the same

[keilan]

Race 8


(A's) #7
(B's) #2-#3
(C's) #5-#10-#11

I know it's tempting to try and beat Ravel in the p4 without the luxury of watching him in the paddock or post parade but this is one tough race if he scratched.

10 of the 11 runners are all very similar on paper imo but if I was trying to beat him with one horse I'd look towards Smokeyjonessutton. If someone was looking to go deep into the race then I suggest using the B &C horses.

good luck

[Tee]

Smokeyjonessutton could be a solid exotics key. 2 for 17 lifetime with 10 itm finishes. Not a win machine, but likes that 2nd & 3rd slot.

Special Event - Couple nice efforts over synthetic surfaces, one of those coming at Kee. 2nd off of a 3 month layoff, perhaps that last out gave him a little to move forward. 5 yr old horse making only his 10th lifetime career start. Must decide if he is "right" today in order to make the play.

Ravel - Even money or less on a cannon bone injured returnee. Would hate to throw him out & have him beat me. Would hate it even more if he was the key to my winning or losing.

[Robert Fischer]

in addition I would bet
exactas
$3 ex 9 w/ 2,5,7 =9
$1 ex 9w 3,4 = 2
234579 box = $30

+$41

[Tee]

Nice job with the camera work there at the end of the race!!!!!

[Robert Fischer]

9-2-8-4

missed the super -$66


should have stuck to the exacta +$01.20 :jump: lol

super ended up paying 109 for a dime. Other affordable options would have been keying only the 9 in each slot - but the object was to have a shot to beat the 9. Hard to seperate contenders between 3rd and 4th on these types of races. Tried to key 3 horses in 2 slots, but may have been a low percentage play.

on the bright side Ravel ran a nice comeback race. (always good to finish in 6 and change and outrun the camera :D ) Would love to see this one put something together at 4 and add to the division.

[DanG]

on the bright side Ravel ran a nice comeback race. (always good to finish in 6 and change and outrun the camera :D ) Would love to see this one put something together at 4 and add to the division.
Agreed Robert;

I realize it wasn’t the saltiest bunch, but as far as I can tell that was the largest margin of victory yet 2 turns at Keeneland since the new surface. (Previous high 4 ¾) evidently the camera man is not used to the leader drawing away as in the past. :eek:

[john del riccio]

Agreed Robert;

I realize it wasn’t the saltiest bunch, but as far as I can tell that was the largest margin of victory yet 2 turns at Keeneland since the new surface. (Previous high 4 ¾) evidently the camera man is not used to the leader drawing away as in the past. :eek:

I think a horse that shows a fondness for POLY has an edge on those that have not raced over it yet. I also wish I could get a better handle on whther KEE & HOL are made up of the same type of "stuff".

John

[Robert Fischer]

I think a horse that shows a fondness for POLY has an edge on those that have not raced over it yet. I also wish I could get a better handle on whther KEE & HOL are made up of the same type of "stuff".

John

KEE(polytrack) & HOL(cushiontrack) have different surfaces. However success on one of them is at least a small positive indicator for forcasting a race on the other.

I have found that certain horses and certain pedigrees can transfer between the two tracks with success. KEE can be a variable surface as well. KEE will have days when no jockey wants to run a fraction in 24 or 49 or 1:12 , and then you have mini-cycles where a jockey or two try to "steal" the races up front, and it repeats. Supposedly both surfaces are weather and maintenance dependant.

KEE is maybe the greater test of pedigree and stamina at distances above 9 furlongs.

[whyhorseofcourse]

Its great to see this horse running again.
IMO it would have been a stud in the derby.
It is an amazing horse! :jump: