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bellsbendboy
10-10-2007, 03:42 PM
Thought that BEES in race 7 looked the days best, so built a ticket around that filly. Leg one offers the Biancone runner at even money and suspect she can win but am adding four others Talike who worked super in the spring, Noon Day who is out of a half to the impressive winner of the previous race, Satin Rose who gets the hood after a good race and an excellent work and Queen who is working fabulous for her debut.

The feature finds some interesting entrants led by Justa Streak who comes up tagged, by choice, always a big angle. Also Big Rush who came off the shelf with authority and Janks could not find easier in this condition book, and Buddy who drops and appears the one to down. In the nightcap, Frog gets MAJOR league rider relief after being taken by ultra sharp connections. Also Garden Boy who need only get the trip and Pirate who is very sharp and does not need the lead. Call it 1,6,9,11,12 / 10 / 3,4,7 / 1,2,12 BBB

bellsbendboy
10-11-2007, 12:33 PM
Handicapping acumen falling between sensible and senseless landed the dreaded three wins and a second for team BBB yesterday at Keeneland. This was our tenth "runnerup" pick 4 result in 2007 and in none of the cases did three winners payoff.

Little consolation that a fifty to one shot sunk our ship given our poor execution in the nightcap and lack of grasp thruout the sequence.

The maiden in leg one featured the Biancone filly that the Keeneland clocker gave an "impressive" grade in her work before the race. Clockers in general, and Keeneland in particular, do not give those accolades to unstarted two year olds often. Nevertheless she drew the outside and showed breaks in her six work tab, of 16 days, 12 days and 20 days, enough for us to spread. As it was Strike Out ($4.60) was four wide the entire trip and raced greenly but prevailed. Going five deep to get a 13-10 shot is never good in hindsight but no complaints here as vulnerability is in the eye of the beholder.

The grass entry level allowance revealed a cinch single with BEES ($6.40). Oddly, all over the internet cappers were playing Kin To The Wind!! While she seemed the main rival the 4 yo never looked better than second best. Playing a deep closer with the rail up is seldom good strategy. Homebred Bees from the ever solid Motion stable came off the shelf in April this class and was beat a neck and a nose to a pair of stakeswinners, including Panty Raid, while giving that one eight big pounds. This Rahy filly rated kindly and finished very well when asked by Raffie making a repeat score a definite possibility.

The feature was an interesting collection of claimers, allowance types and a few dropping out of stakes, with the entrants between three and eight year olds. We went three deep with Big Rushlet a solid second at seven to one, Justa Streak at 5-1 and Buddy Got Even as the favorite. These optional claimers are interesting and in this case Pletcher put his dad's horse up for sale although eligible for the 3x condition, normally a strong angle. 'Buddy was a vet scratch recently and we should have viewed the drop as negative, it was; neither ran a jump. As for the winner Five Star Thief ($105.20) he was not without some positives. He too, was eligible for the $80K claiming price and since he just ran for fifty twice he was plenty safe. His trainer Dodson Skaggs is a very good horseman who has been puting over nice priced horses for years and years. He claimed this one off the vanilla Dollase, immediately pulled the hood and this former half a million dollar yearling is earning over $10, 000 per start since. We will now upgrade form from Presque Isle as the purses up there have apparently attracted quality animals.

Note: Thumbs up to JB @ Thorograph who recommended the winner at anything over five to won and made a big score. Thumbs down to the boss at the junior varsity forum who regurgitated JB's picks (as usual) and took credit for the fifty to one shot. He wonders why he never shows a profit!!

Although we would have had to go five or six deep to have the bomb in the last, the nightcap is where we failed with some pathetic race shape handicapping. Corie wins it off the fence with Cane Garden Boy ($8.80) very early when the race for the front became spirited as the form indicated it would. 'Cane coming off a win at this class (PID again) won for the fifth time
this year and our only reservation was one of distance! He figured a perfect trip, was sharp and has more distance breeding than ANY horse in yesterdays form. Ugly attempt at four, yet nearly pulled it off and would have got nearly $4K for the ticket, although our hit would have been substantially less. Play again Friday and hopefully show some game. BBB