Lock O' The Day 10-10

[chickenhead]

FNO 4: 5 BEAU GRANDE

I'll post final results tonight. Met one my goals, which was to have fun. Did NOT meet my goals for performance, tho.

Good Luck!

[orrug2k]

Does the 2 firsters with high ped numbers scare you at all.... seems like too much unknowns for a lock.

[chickenhead]

I don't have anything in this play other than a criteria for "too many" firsters as a % of field. Over the long haul they lose more than the take, so I don't worry about it, and hope for the long term to come soon.

Hopefully people will try and beat the 5 with those firsters and we get a decent price. A man can dream, can't he?

[xtb]

7,4,3/5 exacta

[chickenhead]

kicked in the ass on my way out the door, not the first time.

FINAL RESULTS

50 plays

WP% (average of win + place %'s)

Goal: 60%
Actual: 64%

WP ROI

Goal: +10%
Actual: +3.3%

PLAYS/DAY

Goal: 2
Actual: 2

Bankroll Stats:

High Bank: +68.75%
Low Bank: -17.5%

Ending Bank: +16.5%



Not what I'd hoped for, but good enough. Hope someone else picks up where I left off, selections is a brighter place with a LOTD :)

[bigmack]

It's been my experience with uber conservative play the venue can make/break the intended result. The reliability of chalk at venues like:
Hoosier, Fresno, Fort Erie, Bay Meadows & Calder is always in question, no matter how compelling they appear on paper. I seriously loaded up on chalk at MNR once about 8 years ago and learned.

IMO, these loses could have been averted if you zoom in on more bankable conditions & tracks.
FNO 4: 5 BEAU GRANDE
CRC 1: 5 MELODIC ESCAPADE
HOO 8: 3 LD's HONEY
BM RC 1: 5 PUNCH MARYLAND
FE RC 2: 2 ELIZABETH'S TUNE
BM RC4: 1 OLYMPIC MILER
HOO RC3: MOONSHINE MILLY

[cj]

There is nothing wrong with a profit, and if you are getting a rebate, even better. Nice job!

[keilan]

Nice job Chic -- Gathered a following along the way, generated a fun thread and sustained a tidy profit.

Better than the average bear :ThmbUp:

[MakinItHappen]

kicked in the ass on my way out the door, not the first time.

FINAL RESULTS

50 plays

WP% (average of win + place %'s)

Goal: 60%
Actual: 64%

WP ROI

Goal: +10%
Actual: +3.3%

PLAYS/DAY

Goal: 2
Actual: 2

Bankroll Stats:

High Bank: +68.75%
Low Bank: -17.5%

Ending Bank: +16.5%



Not what I'd hoped for, but good enough. Hope someone else picks up where I left off, selections is a brighter place with a LOTD :)


Thank You for sharing those plays! That was indeed a lot of fun to follow on a daily basis and hey, picked-up a couple bucks in the process!:jump: Although you did not share a lot about your "rules" for selection, at least we always knew that if all was well, we should see your selection fire out of the gate like it's tail had just been turpentined! That made it a lot of fun to follow, IMO!

One thing that I found interesting was that the place bets were actually more profitable than the win bets. If you are inclined to back your place wagers by say a multiple of 3x then this increased the profitability significantly. Tack on rebates and you are well above your stated goal. Then if it wasn't for those damn bridejumpers (Note to PA - Could we get a bridgejumper smilie?) ... tack on another x%. So in summary, nothing to feel bad about even though you may not have "technically" met your stated profit goal.

BigMack may be onto something regarding track selection. Perhaps your rules work better at certain tracks more so than others, or perhaps it is just the small sample size, but your selctions were 16-0 (win record only) at FL(5), CT(3), GLD(2), MED(2) and TDN(2). NOW THOSE ARE LOCKS!:jump: :jump: Meanwhile, 0-9 at BM(3), FNO(2), PENN(2) and the TURD(2).

Also, you may want to consider giving yourself a little time off Mon-Wed (7-13) and concentrate on Thurs-Sun (18-12).

In summary, Great Job Chickhead!:ThmbUp: Thank you for the effort! It was a ton of fun!

G-E-R-O-N-I-M-O!!! <<<SPLASH>>>

MakinItHappen

[chickenhead]

Thanks guys.

MIH, I'm not going to make any adjustments just yet, need more plays before trying to slice and dice anything. But those are definitely some things worth noting.

[DeanT]

Nice job Chick. Profit over 50 plays, bet without the use of the odds board is pretty nice. I've been speaking with industry insiders today who have been following the quest. Jan Rushton was so happy she bought a new hat, Jerry Bailey said you would have done better with his DVD, but was still impressed, and Bonnie the Bugler asked if you were single. :cool:

Congrats and looking forward to see how your competition does with his place bets.

[DanG]

Bonnie the Bugler asked if you were single. :cool:
Nice call Dean! :)

As Dick Enberg would say…'Oh my…Bonnie the Bugler :jump:

http://www.bonnythebugler.com/bonny6.jpg