Turf Riders

[Snow Chief]

Who are some of the good turf riders today who may be slipping under the radar?

[JustRalph]

Jose Valdivia........don't know if he is under the radar.......but I love him on Turf.......

[the_fat_man]

Now you'e getting to the heart of my method: betting only the good turf jocks.

My personal favorite, and please keep this between us, is Jean Cruguet. Have made some incredible scores with him lately, cause, that's my specialty, handicapping jocks on surfaces, cause, why would I bother with the horses when I can just bet the best turf jock, which would be, of course,

JEAN CRUGUET.

And what's particularly interesting is that even though I don't really watch races very carefully, I'm still able to pick out the BEST turf jock. :lol:

Bet out next time you see him on a horse on the turf --- no questions asked.
:jump:


Hope that answers your question and don't leak it out to the masses.

Oh, and he's definitely UNDER the RADAR.

Double OH

my favorite color is red

and did I mention :sleeping::sleeping:

[PaceAdvantage]

And he wonders why nobody wants to "tear apart" a race with him....:rolleyes:

[northerndancer]

Horatio Karamanos & Patrick Husbands are two that come to mind.

[point given]

Samyn , on the green, along w/ Cruget. Jean Luc, is now an oldy, and overlooked, as is Brice Blanc, whose career has nosedived lately. Everyone knows the usual suspects. Of course you can check stats at local track websites too, if you want to actually work at it. :rolleyes:

[shanta]

Elvis Perrodin

[RaceBookJoe]

Samyn , on the green, along w/ Cruget. Jean Luc, is now an oldy, and overlooked, as is Brice Blanc, whose career has nosedived lately. Everyone knows the usual suspects. Of course you can check stats at local track websites too, if you want to actually work at it. :rolleyes:

I remember a time back in the 70's when I would not bet a horse on the grass unless it had either Samyn or Crugeat. I think back then there werent as many turf races and it seemed like the jocks from Europe had an advantage.

[pressman]

At the Meadowlands this meet-Rajiv Maragh Alan Garcia and chris Decarlo I dont know if you "think turf" right away with these guys but are doing an outstanding job.

[Bobzilla]

Not that these two are under the radar for those of us who play New York, but I feel particularly confident with the turf race decision making abilities of Eibar Coa and Ramon Dominguez. From the little I've seen of Gabriel Saez in Delaware I've been impressed.

[cj's dad]

Who are some of the good turf riders today who may be slipping under the radar?

Snow Chief- welcome - don't be turned off or offended by the idiotic remarks:mad: of some on this site. Ask anything you like; if the viewers of your post don't find it interesting most will simply not answer, however some will insult, unfortunately.

[john del riccio]

rene douglas

[rrbauer]

G. Gomez
C. Nakatani

[jma]

Not that these two are under the radar for those of us who play New York, but I feel particularly confident with the turf race decision making abilities of Eibar Coa and Ramon Dominguez. From the little I've seen of Gabriel Saez in Delaware I've been impressed.

Dominguez is very good on the turf.

[DanG]

“Under the radar” is very subjective. Baze and Nakatani have both been leading riders and yet some view Valdivia for example as superior on the lawn. (BTW: Valdivia = 15 / 178, 8% W, 17% WP, $0.55 cent ROI)

Talamo is another who has gained such an early reputation that value is not always there, but the kid has a great feel for grass racing. (18%W, 34%WP, $0.85 cent ROI)

Mike Baze may be the most improved rider I have ever seen in such a short time. He couldn’t finish when I saw him on the east coast to save his life and now he is riding like a seasoned pro. The second one is very well known, but surprisingly still under the radar. When Nakatani’s head is on straight this man can finish like a locomotive.

BTW: The greatest turf rider who wasn’t widely known outside of California was hands down the great Fernando Toro. :ThmbUp:


So Cal… (Turf routes only, last 365 days)
JOCKEY STS WINS W% WP% ROI AVG$ MAX$
Baze Michael C... 227 39 17% 29% $1.00 $11.65 $50.60
Nakatani Corey S. 212 44 21% 35% $1.08 $10.44 $27.60

[David-LV]

Heliodoro Gustines

One of the greatest grass riders in the history of the sport.

Here is an excerpt from an article in Time Magazine Dated Aug. 11, 1967:

In U.S. horse racing these days, the road to riches obviously starts in Panama. Last year Panama's Braulio Baeza took $2,951,022 in purses, second highest total in history; his countryman, Manuel Ycaza, has won more than 2,000 races in eleven years. The best grass-course rider in the U.S. is Heliodoro Gustines, and of the eleven top money winners so far in 1967, four are Panamanians: Baeza, Jacinto Vasquez, Lafitt Pincay Jr. and the winningest jockey of them all, Jorge Velasquez, 20. With 248 victories by last week, Velasquez seems almost certain to become the third man ever to win more than 400 races in one year.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,899715,00.html?iid=chix-sphere

___________
David

[46zilzal]

Historically, Fernando Toro had to be considered near the top.

[northerndancer]

Not that these two are under the radar for those of us who play New York, but I feel particularly confident with the turf race decision making abilities of Eibar Coa and Ramon Dominguez. From the little I've seen of Gabriel Saez in Delaware I've been impressed.

Dominguez is one of the top riders in the game today he showed that when he rode at Saratoga this summer. He is equally suberb on both dirt and turf.

Gabe Saez is an honest rider who gives 110% everytime he is on a horse.

I use either of these two riders on my horses at Delaware. Very good eye...

[46zilzal]

Dominguez is one of the top riders in the game today he showed that when he rode at Saratoga this summer. He is equally suberb on both dirt and turf.


Very heady jockey

[pressman]

“Under the radar” is very subjective. Baze and Nakatani have both been leading riders and yet some view Valdivia for example as superior on the lawn. (BTW: Valdivia = 15 / 178, 8% W, 17% WP, $0.55 cent ROI)

Talamo is another who has gained such an early reputation that value is not always there, but the kid has a great feel for grass racing. (18%W, 34%WP, $0.85 cent ROI)

Mike Baze may be the most improved rider I have ever seen in such a short time. He couldn’t finish when I saw him on the east coast to save his life and now he is riding like a seasoned pro. The second one is very well known, but surprisingly still under the radar. When Nakatani’s head is on straight this man can finish like a locomotive.

BTW: The greatest turf rider who wasn’t widely known outside of California was hands down the great Fernando Toro. :ThmbUp:


So Cal… (Turf routes only, last 365 days)
JOCKEY STS WINS W% WP% ROI AVG$ MAX$
Baze Michael C... 227 39 17% 29% $1.00 $11.65 $50.60
Nakatani Corey S. 212 44 21% 35% $1.08 $10.44 $27.60
Also in Sc Brice Blanc 4-14 as OSA

[toetoe]

I know he's under 50 and not French, but I like Larry Melancon. "Larry on the Lawn" is a well known saying among railbirds ... well, maybe ... :confused:

For return on investment --- NOT overall talent, mind you --- Barrington Harvey, Mr. Longshot.

[plainolebill]

Victor Espinoza does pretty well at a route of ground and is somewhat underbet.

[Light]

By "Under the radar",I assume you mean a nice ROI. Here are a few based on the last 1 year stats. Win % is ignored. The list is incomplete and is presented in order of greatest ROI.

L.Contreras
B.Harvey
Gabriel Saez
S Arias
Maria Charles
Diego Sanchez
J.Campos
Rajiv Maragh
Emma-Jayne Wilson
Jorge I. Duarte, Jr.
J Rose
M Garcia
Frank T. Alvarado
M Baze

I'm Ca based so my bias may be apparent. But these guys statistically beat out the ROI of many big name jocks. And TT,Melancon's ROI on Turf is dismal.
Personally I like Desormeaux, J.Castellano and Nakatani on Turf. And they do come in second tier to the list above as far as ROI.

[Light]

You got my wheels going on the Turf Riders. So I experimented today. Here is my updated list:

Todd Bochinski
L.Contreras
B.Harvey
Gabriel Saez
S Arias
R.C Landry
Jose E. Lopez
Maria Charles
Diego Sanchez
Eurico Rosa Da Silva
Jeffrey Sanchez
J.Campos
Rajiv Maragh
Emma-Jayne Wilson
Jorge I. Duarte, Jr.
J Rose
Martin Garcia
Frank T. Alvarado
M Baze
Ariel Smith
Elvis Trujillo

Again this list is incomplete. Anyrate,I mythically bet these guys and gals on Turf today if they were 4-1 to 30-1. 15 plays. $30 would be break even.Was a bit surprised at the results with this betting blind method. Got $31.80 on win. $42.40 place and $40.70 show. There was a big hit at CRC 6th where A Smith won @14-1 and J Sanchez ran second @14-1. Was a race for 2YO's so that age group may be more sensitive to the skill of the rider.

We'll see if there is anything to this. Will update.

[Robert Fischer]

Murtagh is a heck of a jockey. He is usually riding well known imports, so it can be tough to stay under the radar.

[Ron]

Turf Riders


sounds like a bad ass movie

[toetoe]

My buddy Light,

Ariel just has not been the same since 'The Little Mermaid.' I guess it's like a horse going to Dubai. :(

No Dilip Amarsingh on your list ? Oh, that's right. He was stabbed to death. Say, any progress on the HBPA's plan to install synthetic blades on backstretch knives ? Something MUST be done. :D

[borntoride]

Here in Louisiana, both at Fair Grounds & La. Downs, Gerard Melancon earns his nickname, G-Money, on the green. I also agree with E.J. "Elvis" Perrodin.

[Light]

I'll be checking Louisiana for their "value" riders when they run again,so Elvis may make the list. By "value",I mean a combo of WPS and the odds of the horses they ride,not win ROI or win percentage.(BTW J. Rose is the best on win % on that list). I'd be suprised if this makes a profit in the win column. Possibly the show may cut it.Will update in chunks of 15 or 20 mythical bets. Today for example,there was only 1 play. CRC 2nd race. ToeToe"s boy, A Smith went off @ 4-1 and paid $3.80 to show. J. Lopez also ran but @88-1 he's off the radar. (30-1 limit).

[Light]

Updated list with MED jocks (4 new). Only track with Turf racing tomorrow.

Angel S. Arroyo
Todd Bochinski
L.Contreras
Navin Mangalee
B.Harvey
Gabriel Saez
S Arias
R.C Landry
Jose E. Lopez
Maria Charles
Alan Garcia
Diego Sanchez
Lexi Merson
Eurico Rosa Da Silva
Jeffrey Sanchez
J.Campos
Rajiv Maragh
Emma-Jayne Wilson
Jorge I. Duarte, Jr.
J Rose
Martin Garcia
Frank T. Alvarado
M Baze
Ariel Smith
Elvis Trujillo

[toetoe]

Where's the "value" if you disregard the return on investment ? :confused:

If you're interested in the show dough, can't you amass a huge show price database ? :)

[jotb]

He may not be riding anymore but Jerry Bailey has some nice numbers. From 1999 to 2006 he rode 1,935 races on the turf and won 514 races. Out of the 1,935 races he hit the board 1,108 with purse earnings of over 36 million. He rode "live" all of the time but knew how to get the job done. He postioned his horses in the right place, had a keen sense of pace and patience and for me that's what it takes to make a good turf rider.

joe

[Light]

Toe

The ROI is there,its just not limited to the win end. The "value" on these turf riders incorporates place and show as well.Some like B. Harvey get their value mainly from winning bombs.He doesnt hit the board much.He's one of the lowest for hitting the board on that list. Others like M Garcia hit the board with 23-1 shots paying $9.00 to show in yesterdays feature. ROI is not allways about the win.

To answer your second question,I think there is a greater tendency for these kinds of show bombs hitting the board on turf than dirt. But for this experiment,I want to look at it accross the board before concluding show betting is the way to go here.

[dylbert]

Elvis PerrodinI second this motion! Give me E.J. on the sod and the mud.

[GaryG]

Tee Joe is the man, I garontee.

[pressman]

E. Vaz is 20% win turf at PHA

[toetoe]

Light,

So we agree, right ? :eek: Whoa, scare-REE ! :D

[John]

I am suprised hat no one mention J. Castellano

[Light]

My updated list before start of todays races:

Angel S. Arroyo
Todd Bochinski
L.Contreras
Navin Mangalee
B.Harvey
Gabriel Saez
S Arias
R.C Landry
Roberto M. Gonzalez
Eriluis Vaz
Jose E. Lopez
Jorge F. Chavez
Catalino Martinez
Maria Charles
Alan Garcia
Diego Sanchez
Lexi Merson
Eurico Rosa Da Silva
Jeffrey Sanchez
Jose Lezcano
Jose L. Espinoza
J.Campos
Rajiv Maragh
Emma-Jayne Wilson
Jorge I. Duarte, Jr.
J Rose
Martin Garcia
Frank T. Alvarado
M Baze
Kent J. Desormeaux
Ariel Smith
Elvis Trujillo
David G. Lopez
Javier Castellano
Eibar Coa
Carol Cedeno


Updated totals betting all these jockeys blind within a 4-1 to 30-1 range. 48 plays. $96 is break even.

Win= $117 Place=$114.60 Show=$95.40

[Light]

My final update. Hold the applause. After 79 plays $158 invest. Return:

Win: $221.20
Place: $185.30
Show: $154.10

How do you like that. Beat BO and CH combined without handicapping.Chalk eating weasels that they are. (just had a bomb win so quitting while I'm ahead).

As far as Elvis P at Lou the data shows him as a negative ROI on Turf. My final list includes Lou,and Ret.I found only 2 jocks at Lou with a positive.Jose L. Verenzuela and Fabio A. Arguello, Jr. I included Diego Saenz,just to give you a third jock but this guy is right under my borderline cutoff.

Angel S. Arroyo
Todd Bochinski
L.Contreras
Jose L. Verenzuela
Navin Mangalee
Junior Chacaltana
B.Harvey
Gabriel Saez
S Arias
R.C Landry
Dean P. Butler
Todd Glasser
Roberto M. Gonzalez
Fabio A. Arguello, Jr.
Eriluis Vaz
Jose E. Lopez
Raymundo D. Fuentes
Jorge F. Chavez
Catalino Martinez
Maria Charles
Alan Garcia
Diego Sanchez
Jeremy Collier
Lexi Merson
Eurico Rosa Da Silva
Jeffrey Sanchez
Jose Lezcano
Jose L. Espinoza
J.Campos
Rajiv Maragh
Emma-Jayne Wilson
Perry S. Whetstone
Jorge I. Duarte, Jr.
J Rose
Martin Garcia
Eguard Tejera
Mike E. Smith
Frank T. Alvarado
M Baze
Kent J. Desormeaux
Ariel Smith
Channing Hill
Elvis Trujillo
David G. Lopez
Larry J. Sterling, Jr.
Javier Castellano
Eibar Coa
Carol Cedeno
Diego Saenz

[toetoe]

Peace officer: "What's the problem, bub ?"

Light: "I've a jock right under my cutoffs, sir."

Peace officer: "Gee, you might try jocking off, bub."

Toetoe: "Oh, the horror. :eek: The horror."

[Light]

LAD R4 Turf

Diego Saenz $26.60 Place $11.20 Show

He is no longer under the "cutoff" Toemaster.

[Tom]

Interesting thread.
Light, any filters on that list - like just turf routes, or is it all burger?

[toetoe]

I see a new wing of the DRF Studios opening up to accommodate Sunny Boy's grass-roots filter movement. Maybe the didactic shafts of insight can be grouped in a feature called 'Prisms of Lucifer,' or some such.

Any thoughts, O Braindead, er, I mean O Braintrust of PA ? :)

[Light]

Filters? I cant figure that out. Just had P Whetstone(on list) win @ 12-1 @Retama. What could you filter with him? No Tr/Jk combo.1st time together. Trainer is 1-18. 0-3 on Turf. It was a sprint and PW is only 5%(5-100) in sprints. Sire of his horse is 0-9 on Turf.Opened @12-1 closed @12-1. Got me. A good betting strategy is probably the way to go. I am keeping track of all the odds these horses go off at,so will see what odds range might be best to capitolize on.

[Tom]

That's what I meant - all turf, that's it, it sounds like.

[Light]

One thing I've noticed so far about a few of these jocks is that when they get down to my "cutoff" threshold,(stats updated daily)they seem to pop at a nice number and come back nicely as a solid turf jock (profit wise).Then they peter out again.

I'm thinking since this is jock capping rather than horse capping,it would probably be interesting to do something like a "jock graph" like "thoro-graph does horses.

So far,I'm using these jockeys like a mutual fund. Diversifying my investments on what are statisically profitable jocks. So I dont worry when I have 4 bets in one race and only 1 hits the board. The percentages are that in a future bet they are going to come in 1-2 at mega odds. The main question I have now is what bets to avoid. I allready know betting below 4-1 is counterproductive. It may be that I have to raise those odds. We'll see.

[Robert Fischer]

If you try filters, you may want to assume that you are using the better jockeys, and that your goal is to find the races in which the jockey will have most influence.

^ Races in which the scenarios are chaotic enough that the best "Turf Riders" can take control of the situation and gain a small advantage with a quality ride.

[LARRY GEORGE]

i did not believe jean cruget is riding any more if so where :confused:

[Light]

Wow.Check this out. My "systems" best result so far. Belmont 10th. Oct 21. 12 horse field. There were 4 jocks on my list in that race and they comprised the super. $2.00 super paid $4066.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant_pdf.cgi?type=inc&country=USA&track=BEL&date=2007-10-21&race=0

If this keeps up I'll have to start charging. :kiss:

[toetoe]

My Dear Handicapper Light,

You got about 83/1 on your 4-horse stupor box. I require almost that much for my stinkin' Barrington Harvey win angle !!! :)