WHAT IS CLASS

[HUSKER55]

I AM TRYING TO DEVELOP MY OWN SYSTEM AND I AM IN NEED OF ASSISTANCE. I HAVE HAD RACES WHERE I BET ON AN ALLOWENCE HORSE AND GOT WIPED OUT BY A HIGH PRICED MAIDEN. I HAVE BEEN USING THE THEORY THAT THE LEVEL A HORSE CAN RACE AT IS THE LEVEL IT LAST WON AT.

OBVIOUSLY, I NEED SOME INPUT AND THANK YOU FOR YOUR HELP.

[46zilzal]

Class = adaptation to whatever pace is thrown at them.

[Robert Fischer]

there is class of the individual horse, and then you can also refer to the class of a specific race or even a purse level/race type.

[GlenninOhio]

Class = adaptation to whatever pace is thrown at them.

To this I would add "and adaptation to whatever trip is thrown at them".

[kenwoodallpromos]

I AM TRYING TO DEVELOP MY OWN SYSTEM AND I AM IN NEED OF ASSISTANCE. I HAVE HAD RACES WHERE I BET ON AN ALLOWENCE HORSE AND GOT WIPED OUT BY A HIGH PRICED MAIDEN. I HAVE BEEN USING THE THEORY THAT THE LEVEL A HORSE CAN RACE AT IS THE LEVEL IT LAST WON AT.

OBVIOUSLY, I NEED SOME INPUT AND THANK YOU FOR YOUR HELP.
Going by last race you could see many class jumps and falls from each horse!!
IMHO Class= Stamina to mainain a winning speed.

[RaceBookJoe]

I am not sure there is a set "what is class" answer. Since I still use class in my handicapping, to me Class is the level a horse can run with the expected pace, and still deliver an adequate final time. As far as class levels go, horses are there for a reason. Claimers usually race with claimers because usually they arent as good/fast/adaptable to pace as allowance or stakes horses So in a nutshell, when you compare class with speed or pace....the classier horses have more speed and can handle more pace pressure. hope that helps.

[dav4463]

If a younger horse is on an improving cycle and winning or getting close and keeps jumping up in class, it may be worth a bet. You don't know when this horse will reach a level where it cannot compete. Older horses usually are easier to figure out based on where they have won in the past. Some older horses though will drop and drop and then start winning again and move back up the class ladder, but you should quit betting them once they get too far over (maybe one level over would be OK) their best class win or close finish.

[Cratos]

I AM TRYING TO DEVELOP MY OWN SYSTEM AND I AM IN NEED OF ASSISTANCE. I HAVE HAD RACES WHERE I BET ON AN ALLOWENCE HORSE AND GOT WIPED OUT BY A HIGH PRICED MAIDEN. I HAVE BEEN USING THE THEORY THAT THE LEVEL A HORSE CAN RACE AT IS THE LEVEL IT LAST WON AT.

OBVIOUSLY, I NEED SOME INPUT AND THANK YOU FOR YOUR HELP.

Class – The ability of a horse to consistently win at a given level regardless of conditions. It is important to note “win” because only winning defines class. Anything else is “competitive.”

What this says is that there is “class within class” because at all levels of racing there are specialists that consistently win at a particular condition. An example of this would be a 5000K claimer that consistently wins at distances of 6f and below, but at 5000K distances further than 6f the horse would be challenged to win.

However when you look at the Ghostzappers, the Dr. Fagers, the Secretariats, and others of that elite class it didn’t make any difference of the conditions because they were the class or their level under any condition.

[rokitman]

I am not sure there is a set "what is class" answer. Since I still use class in my handicapping, to me Class is the level a horse can run with the expected pace, and still deliver an adequate final time. As far as class levels go, horses are there for a reason. Claimers usually race with claimers because usually they arent as good/fast/adaptable to pace as allowance or stakes horses So in a nutshell, when you compare class with speed or pace....the classier horses have more speed and can handle more pace pressure. hope that helps.
Right! :ThmbUp:

[classhandicapper]

Class = the simultaneous express of all aspects of ability.

When you measure final time, fractional times etc.... you are measuring individual components of class/ability. Class (ability) also includes acceleration, determination, consistency, heart, versatility, determination, gate speed, and other things.

As you move up the class ladder, horses tend to possess greater quantities of all these aspects of ability. That's why horses with slightly faster speed figures earned against weaker opponents sometimes can't duplicate those figures against better horses and why horsess that show flashes of ability that are dropped in class sometime improve sharply against weaker horses.

[jotb]

Hello all:


Class is difficult to define, but in a short version, "class" is the ability to repeat a superior performance, time after time, no matter what the conditions. You could also call it the "will to win". How hard that particular horse is willing to push himself in order to finish first.

Claimers are usually claimers simply because they aren't consistent. They need a particular set of circumstances to excel. Allowance or stake horses are more able to run that good race time after time, but they are still prey to the company that they keep. The better company they run against, the harder for them to get that set of circumstance that allows them to turn in their optimum performance.

Maybe a horse can run 6 furlongs in 1:11 when running alone, or with a pack of horses that give him an easy lead, but if he's pressed all the way, he can't manage it. Or maybe he can run that race if he's off the pace with slow early fractions, but if the pace is honest, he won't be able to make up the ground. Some horses won't run well if another horse looks them in the eye and really makes them give all that they have.
Very few horses can run a race full out the entire distance. It may look that way to us, but in reality, most horses have to get a breather at some point. The better a horse is, the longer he can run full out, which means that the other horses can't get that needed breather, or at least not enough of one.

Joe

[turfbar]

CLASS is MONEY.


T

[46zilzal]

CLASS is MONEY.




There are many restricted stakes for big money that are several notches below the top comparable horses in open conditions.

[startngate]

The Nebraskan in me says ... Class = Tom Osborne ... :)

[Capper Al]

Class to me is the race condition level at which a horse can be expected to compete. The old quick and dirty method for evaluating class was earnings per start (EPS). Many say this doesn't work anymore because of state allowance races artificially raising the EPS. Speed cappers and pace cappers will do what one would expect-- define class by speed or pace. That's the way they look at racing so this shouldn't come as a surprise. I look at recent competitive racing levels. The problem with this is that judgement may be colored by form cycle. Here's a link to BRIS's definition of class which has influenced my methods:


http://www.bris.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=classrate

[46zilzal]

Classy animals have longer periods of good form as well.

[so.cal.fan]

The best handicapper I know described class as:
The ability of a horse to carry it's speed over the distance of ground that nature intended it to do.

[DanG]

Julie Krone at a seminar at Monmouth called thoroughbred class a “pack trait” that horses develop very early in the breeding pastures. She claimed the dominate foal will inherently “heard” the inferior stock by taking the dominant outside position. She went on to say this is one reason why so many stretch duels are won by the outside animal.

Many handicappers’ attempts to measure class are really just speed / purse pars in sheep’s clothing. Ultimately…true “class” can be a subjective visual observation. If a player can determine these elusive qualities in racehorses without referring to traditional purse / speed measures, they can have a great tool.

I’ve also found out recently that there are methods to measure racing qualities (other than speed) in animals without ever watching them run. These can be very tricky to apply, but if the proper balance is attained they are a tremendous, under the radar tool.

[GaryG]

This is similar to Quinn's premise in Class of the Field. That is one of my favorite books.

[classhandicapper]

This is similar to Quinn's premise in Class of the Field. That is one of my favorite books.

Quinn gets it. :ThmbUp:

Some aspects of ability cannot be measured well and others can't be determined until after the fact.

We can measure a horse's time to the frst quarter, but we often don't know how fast he can actually get there until another horse presses him early. We also don't measure exactly how quick he is in the first few strides out of the gate.

We can measure a horse's time to the 1/4, 1/2, 3/4 in any race etc... but we can't measure how quickly he can turn on his speed and how fast he can actually acclerate to get favorable position, dart through a hole, avoid trouble etc...

We can measure a horse's final time, but we can't always measure how tired he was at the finish. Was he all out or did he have a lot of stamina in reserve? If the pace was faster would he have collapsed or would it have carried him to a faster final time?

We can see a horse rally well for second, but we don't always find out that he has a tendency to hang until after he's been in a position to win several times and we have seen him pull himself up.

It takes a while to find out if a horse can adopt to various pace scenarios and still perform well.

It takes a while to find out how a horse will react to being bumped, checked, blocked, between horses, inside horses etc...

Visual skills sometimes help.

Knowing that certain owners and trainers tend to have high quality stock sometimes helps etc...

The horses that move up the ladder possess more of these favorable qualities in greater quantities.

[Cratos]

Julie Krone at a seminar at Monmouth called thoroughbred class a “pack trait” that horses develop very early in the breeding pastures. She claimed the dominate foal will inherently “heard” the inferior stock by taking the dominant outside position. She went on to say this is one reason why so many stretch duels are won by the outside animal.

Many handicappers’ attempts to measure class are really just speed / purse pars in sheep’s clothing. Ultimately…true “class” can be a subjective visual observation. If a player can determine these elusive qualities in racehorses without referring to traditional purse / speed measures, they can have a great tool.

I’ve also found out recently that there are methods to measure racing qualities (other than speed) in animals without ever watching them run. These can be very tricky to apply, but if the proper balance is attained they are a tremendous, under the radar tool.

Dan, I respectfully disagree with Ms. Krone assertion because the “leader of the pack” and “herd leader” theory is not just a horse racing phenomenal, but is universal across the animal kingdom. However in horseracing the question that is always before us is: “Who will win this race?” The answer to that question can be seen in the Pittsburgh Phil’s retort: “find the class and you find the winner.”

However in a more succinct reply as I have stated earlier in this thread: “a horse’s class is its ability to win consistently at a given level under any condition.” Speed, stamina, etc are just class parameters that can be measured. Class itself is non-parametric, but is always performance determined.

[Tom]

Seems like we do not all agree on what class is. Hmmmm?

I think Capper Al comes closest, in using a horse's pattern of developement the conditions he successfully completed, both in how many tries and in the manner of victory. Quinn describes this in a very usable format in his classic.

[DanG]

Cratos ~ I respectfully disagree with Ms. Krone assertion because the “leader of the pack” and “herd leader” theory is not just a horse racing phenomenal, but is universal across the animal kingdom.
To me Cratos you’re agreeing with her assertion, you’re just unable to apply it to handicapping.

Cratos ~ However in a more succinct reply as I have stated earlier in this thread: “a horse’s class is its ability to win consistently at a given level under any condition.” Speed, stamina, etc are just class parameters that can be measured.
We have a different take on measuring “class”, but the discussion of class in a thoroughbred is now in its XXXth + year and I still hear many different interpretations.

Maybe because I’ve gotten into intensive computer handicapping that I’m so guarded against factor overlap. I feel soooo many players seeking to apply “class” are really just stacking traditional / measurable data on top of one another until it resembles…just another speed / performance rating.

BTW: I find it very encouraging that with all of us focused so intensely on basically the same grail there is so little total agreement. (I mean that in a good way) :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Cratos]

BTW: I find it very encouraging that with all of us focused so intensely on basically the same grail there is so little total agreement. (I mean that in a good way) :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Dan, a good postscript and I might add that in this age of computer handicapping a fallacious notion permeates horserace handicapping with the idea that everything has to quantitative to be meaningful.

[DanG]

Dan, a good postscript and I might add that in this age of computer handicapping a fallacious notion permeates horserace handicapping with the idea that everything has to quantitative to be meaningful.
Yikes Cratos!

I’m only on a Jersey high school education and I’m trying to follow that sentence! :D

I think we agree in that many otherwise good approaches in handicapping have been thrown in a waste basket due to over saturation. I feel there are many more winning approaches that were not allowed to breath for the complexity thrown at them. While our game is very dynamic and complicated in many ways, applying numerous variables can / and has ruined several valid approaches imo.

Recently, I looked back on a program I wrote many years ago while using early Formulator. For fun I plugged in some HDW / HTR data and was shocked at how well it was working in grass racing for example. It’s so simple compared to many approaches (including my own currently) and yet, its raw simplicity may be its greatest strength.

Just how many factors can / or should even a comprehensive approach have? With each passing year it seems to become less and less in my feeble old mind. :)

[cj's dad]

To me,class is like pornography i.e.

it's hard to explain but I know it when I see it

[Tom]

Can you post an example or two?




:lol:

[classhandicapper]

Seems like we do not all agree on what class is. Hmmmm?

I think Capper Al comes closest, in using a horse's pattern of developement the conditions he successfully completed, both in how many tries and in the manner of victory. Quinn describes this in a very usable format in his classic.

Capper Al is defining a method for determining class - namely looking at the quality of the race a horse has been competitive at. (the actual horses not the just the class label because labels can be wrong)

That does not explain why horses with slightly faster speed and pace figures can't duplicate them when they face horses at a much higher class or vice versa.

It doesn't explain why the classier horse tends to get the best of it in a tough stretch drive etc...

Those things are explained by some of the less tangible aspects of ability that higher quality horses have in greater quantities that often make their races tougher than they appear based on pace and final time figures alone.

[Tom]

Sure it does. They can't duplicate it because they do not have the "class" to do so. Times alone are unreliable measures, but combined with the profile of development and how long it takes them to go through thier conditions sheds a lot of light.

What would be interesting is to hear how people explain the class of Cigar during the two distinct phases of his career. Did his class suddenly appear, was it tied to dirt, was he always classy, just immature?
Ah, the thing bars were created for! ;)

[john del riccio]

Can you post an example or two?




:lol:
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

[the_fat_man]

Capper Al is defining a method for determining class - namely looking at the quality of the race a horse has been competitive at. (the actual horses not the just the class label because labels can be wrong)

That does not explain why horses with slightly faster speed and pace figures can't duplicate them when they face horses at a much higher class or vice versa.

It doesn't explain why the classier horse tends to get the best of it in a tough stretch drive etc...

Those things are explained by some of the less tangible aspects of ability that higher quality horses have in greater quantities that often make their races tougher than they appear based on pace and final time figures alone.

While some might think that "class" explains the examples you pointed to above, IMO, "class" is merely used to mask the actual explanations ---the WHY and HOW behind the numbers OR accepted 'facts'.

You're espousing long held racetrack truisms that, once again, in my experience are just NOT CORRECT. There are so many factors involved in determining WHY a horse wins a stretch duel, for example. While it's the case that some horses seem to win more of these than they lose, it's also the case that these horses are probably getting better trips OR maybe have better jockeys OR just flat out have good fortune. On the flip side, horses with 2ndITIS, can easily be categorized as hangers or CLASSLESS. For example, Dubliner just flat out didn't want to win, running 2nd multiple times until he recently broke his maiden.

Then again, those looking beyond generalities might attribute their failings to things like poor footwork, bad habits, poor training, poor rides, etc. (Take a look, for example, at some of the lower percentage trainers and how they'll move horses from sprints to routes, from dirt to turf, and back again. How in the world does a horse ever get in a groove under these conditions?) Of course, horses with CLASS wouldn't exhibit these flaws, would they? Renown, another renowned hanger/lifetime maiden, has a habit of not changing leads in the lane --- if he'd changed in any of the races he ran 2nd in, he'd be out of the maiden ranks. Simply claiming that the fact that he doesn't change points to his lack of class wouldn't exactly get the job done.

Take the example of the horse going up in class (and adding distance). English Colony had blitzed all the sprinters he'd run against on the turf ---anywhere from 5F to 7F. He projected to stretch well from 6F to 7F, cause, as a CLASSY horse, he had enough speed to either set the pace if nothing else went or sit just off it and explode in the lane. Moreover, he had good footwork, ran straight as you'd want in the stretch, and hadn't felt the sting of the whip in his most recent starts. He also ran in a reasonably relaxed manner --- though he needed to be choked down a bit in the shorter races. So, Pena stetches him to a mile and up him in class to the Grade 3 Kelso.

He loses. And, probably, those doing numbers would say he wasn't fast enough (I'm assuming here) or the pace didn't set up just pefectly OR those doing class ratings would say (perhaps more comprehensively) he didn't have the class. A replay shows that EC was rank on the backside, looking for the lead, and the extra furlong threw his footwork/timing off and he's on the wrong lead on the backstretch, running almost sideways to the outside. (It's interesting how often horses do this on the turf.) He runs well till midstretch, and then just gives it up, while feeling the whip consistently. Maybe the poor footwork is a sign that he just wasn't as good as the others. Maybe, alternatively, it's a sign that a (relatively) lightly raced/inexperienced horse just got a bit crossed up with the added distance and didn't put in its best effort.

There are countless other examples.

My point is before I resort to the 'blanket' explanation, "CLASS", I want to make sure that I haven't exhausted all the others. This requires quite a bit more effort/work on my part but at least I'm trying to get to the heart of things rather than allowing the truisms (FALSisms) or others to do the "explaining" for me.

If one takes the time to watch a race intently, one appreciates the many factors that determine whether a horse wins or loses. One also begins to realize that, with very few exceptions, CLASS is just an empty concept and the difference between winning and losing, in most cases, cannot be overcome --even by the CLASS animal.

[Dr Win]

tneory

[Capper Al]

Sure it does. They can't duplicate it because they do not have the "class" to do so. Times alone are unreliable measures, but combined with the profile of development and how long it takes them to go through thier conditions sheds a lot of light.

What would be interesting is to hear how people explain the class of Cigar during the two distinct phases of his career. Did his class suddenly appear, was it tied to dirt, was he always classy, just immature?
Ah, the thing bars were created for! ;)

Let there be no confusion. Tom is seeing my definition correctly. And I'm not surprised it sounds like Quinn. When it comes to class, Quinn's my man.

Cigar does make the case that the race condition level must be considered within the context of distance/surface.

[Cratos]

tneory

Good example, but IMHO you only demonstrated how one parameter of class can theoretically be measured and interpreted.

[Capper Al]

The longer I handicap the more I appreciate class. There is an old saying that class tells all. For turf and routes, I have no doubt this is true.

[46zilzal]

The longer I handicap the more I appreciate class. There is an old saying that class tells all. For turf and routes, I have no doubt this is true.
FEW of these attributes occur anywhere but in graded contests.

[classhandicapper]

Fat Man

Of course there are many factors that impact the results over and above the ability or class of the horse. That should be obvious to anyone that has been around the game for a long time.

However, IMO, it's also clear that there's more to a horse's ability than just his pace figures and speed figures (for example). Those other things are tougher to measure, but make themselves apparent "over the long haul" when horses with similar figures meet (and for your sake have similar trips). ;)

What it comes down to is that races of higher quality and deeper field strength tend to be more demanding in many ways. This can cause some of the horses to run slower than they would have in an softer spot and vice versa.

CLASS = ABILITY (which is dynamic)

ABILITY = Speed, accleration, stamina, competitiveness, versatility, seasoning, gate speed, willingness, adaptability, etc.....

Many people limit their measurement of ability to fractional and final times or just final times, but it's a lot of things.

[Cratos]

Many people limit their measurement of ability to fractional and final times or just final times, but it's a lot of things.

An excellent observation that many handicappers should paste on their "refrigerators" for a reminder when they are handicapping.

[classhandicapper]

Sure it does. They can't duplicate it because they do not have the "class" to do so. Times alone are unreliable measures, but combined with the profile of development and how long it takes them to go through thier conditions sheds a lot of light.

What would be interesting is to hear how people explain the class of Cigar during the two distinct phases of his career. Did his class suddenly appear, was it tied to dirt, was he always classy, just immature?
Ah, the thing bars were created for! ;)

Cigar's ability on dirt was vastly superior to his ability on turf. That's all.

Class is nothing more than ability, but ability is made up of a very broad list of qualities.

When you put horses of "X" ability together into the same race the demands will typically be greater in many ways than a race where the horses have 1/2 X ability. On average, the horses will be quicker out of the gate, faster to the 1/4, 1/2,..., be able to deliver a faster and more sustained short run to get and keep the postion they want, finish better if they were used etc...

This is one reason why final time is not reliable as horses move up and down the class ladder. The conditions the horses are competing under are different. They are tougher or easier (and that is not just limited to pace).

[the_fat_man]

When you put horses of "X" ability together into the same race the demands will typically be greater in many ways than a race where the horses have 1/2 X ability. On average, the horses will be quicker out of the gate, faster to the 1/4, 1/2,..., be able to deliver a faster and more sustained short run to get and keep the postion they want, finish better if they were used etc...

This is one reason why final time is not reliable as horses move up and down the class ladder. The conditions the horses are competing under are different. They are tougher or easier (and that is not just limited to pace).

This is precisely what I don't agree with.

Take the Fabulous Strike race.

1) Mach Ride MISSES the break ---and is left to run from off rather than on the pace ---result? the complexion of the race changes completely.

2) Discreet Cat and First Defence are run off their feet the 1st qtr; so much so that the latter was done before they hit the turn and the former was running through the lane like a cheap/extremely green maiden.

Same things that happen when bad horses get together happen when good horses get together, AND, once again, the point is that if the trip doesn't go your way (anything from missing the break to catching a bias), you can have all the class you want but you're not getting the job done. Which pretty much makes the concept of class USELESS.

Horses typically win because they get the best setup, CLASS
The horse that does the most running typically doesn't win the race.

But 'class' is supposed to identify those horse that are a cut above the rest; the 'super' horses, if you will. NO such animal.

[bigmack]

Snappy repartee stewing in this thread. I particularly took note of DanG & Captain Corpulent's citings:
Ultimately…true “class” can be a subjective visual observation. If a player can determine these elusive qualities in racehorses without referring to traditional purse / speed measures, they can have a great tool. DanG
With very few exceptions, CLASS is just an empty concept and the difference between winning and losing, in most cases, cannot be overcome --even by the CLASS animal. TFM

[DanG]

What most trip handicappers fail to credit (or frankly comprehend in some cases) is another players ability to “anticipate” these so-called “perfect set ups” through form cycle, positional, pace analysis and experienced intuition

Sometimes trip players think it’s a roulette wheel where the winner just falls on red or black. Fortunately, there is logic before the gate is sprung often enough to overcome the masses in my experience.

[riskman]

Fat Man--- I fail to see how trip handicapping ie. observation of horses' positions, problems, and maneuvers at various stages of the race has anything to do with the class of the animal running the race.

[Capper Al]

The problem for most handicappers is to separate their handicapping bias from class. For example, to a speed handicapper class is speed -- to a pace handicapper pace is class. Class has a unique characteristic. Class measures a horse's ability as compared to other horses outcomes. How did the horse finish when competing against a similar group of horses, not their speed or their pace, just how did the horse finish. Let go of the head trips and all the figures just look at how the horse competed. Trust the force, Luke.

[bigmack]

THow did the horse finish when competing against a similar group of horses, not their speed or their pace, just how did the horse finish.
We now have to void any outside factors and/or conditions that may affect the run/finish within that "class" or subset while the unknown variables are oftentimes vast?

[Capper Al]

We now have to void any outside factors and/or conditions that may affect the run/finish within that "class" or subset while the unknown variables are oftentimes vast?

The question class tries to answer is has this horse been able to race competitively against similar horses in today's field. Let go of the outside factors or trip handicapping or speed handicapping or pace handicapping, etc. Figuring class is not saying did the horse in his last race overcome obstacles or set the pace. It says has the horse in recent races (6 months or even a year) competed once or twice successfully against a similar crowd. If the horse has the class for today's race, the belief is that in at least one race in the past he would have flashed it. That's all there is to it, Luke. Let the mind go. Trust the force.

[Robert Fischer]

...has the horse in recent races (6 months or even a year) competed once or twice successfully against a similar crowd. ...


that's a good way to put it.

How much success you have handicapping class, then depends on how well you can appraise the quality of today's crowd, and compare it to the company of the past.


The details (Pace, Trip, Velocity, Form Evaluation, Etc..) are tools that can help you evaluate these class levels, as well as predict and appraise a horse who may be entering a class level for the first time.

[DanG]

t says has the horse in recent races (6 months or even a year) competed once or twice successfully against a similar crowd. If the horse has the class for today's race, the belief is that in at least one race in the past he would have flashed it. That's all there is to it, Luke. Let the mind go. Trust the force.
The rub is how you access what is a “similar crowd”. If it’s tied to a speed par (as most class levels are) its factor overlap imo.

[Robert Fischer]

Same things that happen when bad horses get together happen when good horses get together, AND, once again, the point is that if the trip doesn't go your way (anything from missing the break to catching a bias), you can have all the class you want but you're not getting the job done. Which pretty much makes the concept of class USELESS.


But 'class' is supposed to identify those horse that are a cut above the rest; the 'super' horses, if you will. NO such animal.

What about those who argue that "cream rises" ?
Sure a quality horse can win or lose any single specific race because of Trip issues.
Even several races, if he is very unlucky or mismanaged.

But eventually a horse's quality should surface? If not what is the value in trip handicapping ?


"Kareem rises to the top"
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/13/20041134_f2381e1272.jpg

[Tom]

I don't agree at all that a one race trip means anything about class. Class encompasses the whole of the horse, not a race performance or fast time. The way I use class is to see where the horse belongs and if today's race condition favor him or not. Class is not a rating that you model and bet the number 2 class horse today.

[Semipro]

Class defined(John Henry)Lack of Class(snake venom&electronic devices)Class(Invasor) Lack of Class (O.J.)

[Hank]

See Dr.Fager in the UN, first and only grass race he takes on the strongest turf field assembled that year, He hated that turf course was headed twice yet battled back gamely to win PURE CLASS.:ThmbUp:

See Slews JCGC, battles the great Affirmed through a hellish 9n change pace and then surges BACK at Exceller late to just miss,His lungs burning with pain his muscles tying up with lactic acid he fights back when 99.9% of thoroughbreds spit it. PURE ClASS:ThmbUp:

[Capper Al]

The details (Pace, Trip, Velocity, Form Evaluation, Etc..) are tools that can help you evaluate these class levels, as well as predict and appraise a horse who may be entering a class level for the first time.

I could have picked several others to quote, but the above will do.

The idea of class is that one doesn't appraise. No figures, no speed, no trip, no pace, no nothing except the finish line and the level of the race condition. Example: The horse finished second by a length in a recent 15000 claimer and is now running in a 12500 claimer. This horse should have the necessary class to win this race with everything else being equal. I am not saying the horse figures. That's what all those other handicapping methods like speed, pace, etc do. These other methods figure. What class tells us is is that the horse is a likely contender. Where this can be nice is for wheeling. The horse might have class but no figures, no pace, or no speed; but one can tell through class that this horse can run with the field. This is how one can find a big payout by including such a class horse in their wheel.

[classhandicapper]

This is precisely what I don't agree with.



Fat Man,

You keeping shifting the conversation to specific races and circumstances. We are not discussing specific races. We are discussing class and ability in a broad sense.

In most races, there are several horses with similar ability/class. That's the whole purpose of race conditions. The racing secretary is TRYING to bring together horses of similar ability/class. It's obvious to everyone that different race set ups and race developments will produce different results among horses of similar ability/class.

However, IMO there is no question that horses in higher caliber races possess greater degrees of a broad range of abilities and qualities than those at lower levels. Therefore the average race development tends to be tougher and more demanding as you move up the ladder.

That kind of thing "in general" explains why horses that drop in class can improve their figures sharply and vice versa.

IMHO, people that are thinking of Class as an individual quality on it's own are missing the boat. It's the opposite. Class is everything rolled into one - the things we measure reasonably well, like pace and final time, plus a long list of other qualities.

Many years ago, people didn't quite understand why classier horses with slower speed figures often beat faster cheap horses when the cheap ones moved up in class (all trips being equal). So they said it was CLASS as if that was a single quality. In reality, it was because they weren't measuring pace and other things. Now that people measure pace well, they have a broader measurement of ability in their figures, but they are still missing all the other qualities that tell us something about a horse's ability.

IMO, you couldn't be any more wrong if you think understanding class is useless.

[Semipro]

yes

[classhandicapper]

The rub is how you access what is a “similar crowd”. If it’s tied to a speed par (as most class levels are) its factor overlap imo.

There is overlap because speed is one component of class. The average final time of higher quality races tend to be faster than those of lower quality races.

However, pace and race development issues can sometimes cause final times to not be reflective of ability in any single race. So if you measure quality by just the final time of the race, you could be way off the mark. That's where a Class Par can help clarify things.

If you look at a Class Par, it can give you a guideline into the level of ability the horses have that goes beyond just final time and its limitations.

If you include pace in your analysis, you become more inclusive. So the Class Par becomes less useful, but it can still help clarify the other aspects of ability.

The best way to classify is to actually analyze a field because Class labels like Grade 1, Grade 2 etc.. are not perfectly accurate. You can outperform the Class Par if you actually understand individual field strengths by looking at the PPs of the horses that were in it.

[Tom]

Class....Post 54 hit the nail on the head.
The biggest class drop of all - MSW to MdCl features the bottom fom the barrel.
We get horses shipping in to FL every year from Nyra that were never closer than 10-15 lengths at any call, horse 0 for 30, real freggs that showed nothing ever, and they AIR at FL, often stringing several wins together, showing many lengths improvement. Try to pick these using pace, trips, speed figures.

[classhandicapper]

Here's an example of what I am talking about.

Horse A - Final Time Rating of 110 going wire to wire while challenged in a weak Listed Stakes field. Drew off.

Horse B - Final Time Rating of 107 moving into a hot pace in a tough Grade 1 field where he finished a solid 3rd.

On final time, Horse A is faster, but most class handicappers would prefer B because he performed well in a much higher quality race and ran almost as fast. They would assume the horses in the Grade 1 stake were a lot tougher and better, the demands of that race were a lot tougher, and both contributed to a slightly slower final time.

Now let's look at the same 2 horses with pace included (another componenet of ability that compliments final time figures).

This could be the typical scenario.

Horse A - Pace Rating of 108 and Final time Rating of 110

Horse B - Pace rating of 120 and Final Time Rating of 107

Most pace/speed handicappers would prefer Horse B because he moved into the much hotter pace and didn't run a much slower final time. Basically, having the pace rating and a more comprehensive view of the horses' performances verifies what the class labels told us.

Now lets adjust these figures a little.

Horse A - Pace rating of 108, Final Time Rating of 110, Overall Performance rating of 109

Horse B - Pace Rating of 112, Final Time Rating of 107, Overall Performance rating of 109.

Now I am suggesting that these two horses are identical numerically based on speed and final time. The only difference is that horse B competed well at a much higher level.

IMHO, horse B will win much more often than Horse A even though they are identical numerically. Speed and Final time in combination are more inclusive than just Final Time Speed alone, but they do not incorporate all aspects of ability. IMHO, it is likely that that B faced even tougher demands than it appears because the horses he ran well against have many superior qualities, some of which we did not include and most of which are very difficult to measure.

(Note to Fat Man - I realize that trips, bias, and race developments and other issues matter. I am analyzing raw ability/class alone to illustrate what I am talking about)

[classhandicapper]

Class....Post 54 hit the nail on the head.
The biggest class drop of all - MSW to MdCl features the bottom fom the barrel.
We get horses shipping in to FL every year from Nyra that were never closer than 10-15 lengths at any call, horse 0 for 30, real freggs that showed nothing ever, and they AIR at FL, often stringing several wins together, showing many lengths improvement. Try to pick these using pace, trips, speed figures.

Exactly. That's a great application.

Another is horses dropping from open claiming races into limited winner claiming races at some tracks.

Another is moving from open company into statebred races at some tracks.

The gap is often huge.

[DanG]

Horse A - Final Time Rating of 110 going wire to wire while challenged in a weak Listed Stakes field. Drew off.

Horse B - Final Time Rating of 107 moving into a hot pace in a tough Grade 1 field where he finished a solid 3rd.

The trap in this approach is what you used to determine “weak / or tough”. If you used “speed” which you have said is a measure of class, then you have layered similar approaches on top of one another diluting their effectiveness.

I hesitate to go further because it’s useless (not to mention annoying) to bring up things that one isn’t willing to share. My point in mentioning it is the reason that I believe class and speed can be separated in a quantitative way. I use a degree of difficulty rating that I’ve found does a far better job of measuring field dynamics than straight speed / class pars. My point being, there is a way to measure a seemingly esoteric quality such as “class” without touching the 300lbs gorilla…speed.

[46zilzal]

Weak and tough are so subjective as to be useless descriptions. A race can be difficult for a closer in many situations JUST because of it's style regardless of the competition level.

[the_fat_man]

Fat Man,

You keeping shifting the conversation to specific races and circumstances. We are not discussing specific races. We are discussing class and ability in a broad sense.

In most races, there are several horses with similar ability/class. That's the whole purpose of race conditions. The racing secretary is TRYING to bring together horses of similar ability/class. It's obvious to everyone that different race set ups and race developments will produce different results among horses of similar ability/class.

However, IMO there is no question that horses in higher caliber races possess greater degrees of a broad range of abilities and qualities than those at lower levels. Therefore the average race development tends to be tougher and more demanding as you move up the ladder.

That kind of thing "in general" explains why horses that drop in class can improve their figures sharply and vice versa.

IMHO, people that are thinking of Class as an individual quality on it's own are missing the boat. It's the opposite. Class is everything rolled into one - the things we measure reasonably well, like pace and final time, plus a long list of other qualities.

Many years ago, people didn't quite understand why classier horses with slower speed figures often beat faster cheap horses when the cheap ones moved up in class (all trips being equal). So they said it was CLASS as if that was a single quality. In reality, it was because they weren't measuring pace and other things. Now that people measure pace well, they have a broader measurement of ability in their figures, but they are still missing all the other qualities that tell us something about a horse's ability.

IMO, you couldn't be any more wrong if you think understanding class is useless.

I'm only following standard scientific procedure: when a theory is put forth, one tests it on individual cases for efficacy.

Of course I think that understanding class, as it's being presented here, and as it applies to racing in general, is USELESS. There are countless examples that show this to be the case.

Karl Popper contended that the way to distinguish between science and PSEUDO-science is that pseudo-scientific theories are more "comprehensive" and can be used to explain EVERYTHING ---even A and NOT A (it's contradiction).

So, we take the case of Stormy Kiss (running in today's 8th). On 8/22 at Sar she puts in an incredibly gutsy performance, chasing freaky fast types and has enough to forge to the lead just before getting run down at the wire by a last mover. Gee, what a GUTSY, i.e. CLASSY performance. But she lost. On the other hand, some might contend that she got a perfect trip sitting just behind the two duelers.

She then comes back 9/20 at BEL, where she's evidently the controlling speed. She doesn't make the lead and gets run down again to lose by another head. Is she gutsy/classy or just a hanger? More investigation shows that the reason she didn't make the lead was because she was on the wrong lead on the backstretch and running at a 45 degree angle while the others were running straight. Moreover, she was significantly crowded in the stretch by the eventual winner. So, in fact, she was actually GUTSY/CLASSY.

But she still lost the race. In fact, she lost 2 close photos in a row. Now, some might regard her as lacking class and being a hanger. One could easily, on the other hand, make excuses for both her races and posit that she's a classy mare, and the recipient of bad luck.

Am I confusing you?

[Tom]

Not confused here, but you do not seem to understand what we are talking about. You present one horse out of any context and say if proves class is useless.., when in fact, those two gutsy losses might make the cass that she is classy horse. If you don't use class, great, but that hardy matters to those who do. Class if not defined by one or two races, or gutsy performances. Although, too many excusable races is ared light to me - classy horses find ways to win, not lose.

[Tom]

Weak and tough are so subjective as to be useless descriptions. A race can be difficult for a closer in many situations JUST because of it's style regardless of the competition level.

Not at all. Weak and tough, or good races are rather easy to spot to those who know what to look for. Ken Massa has even, very accurately, quantified them.

[46zilzal]

Not at all. Weak and tough, or good races are rather easy to spot to those who know what to look for. Ken Massa has even, very accurately, quantified them.
Yes SUBJECTIVELY. A tough spot varies with the pace makeup. One horse's tough spot is to another a helpful pace scenario.

There are NO hard and fast rules. It is not a simple quantitative summary of inputs as they are most variable and can change radically by one simple scratch.

[the_fat_man]

Not confused here, but you do not seem to understand what we are talking about. You present one horse out of any context and say if proves class is useless.., when in fact, those two gutsy losses might make the cass that she is classy horse. If you don't use class, great, but that hardy matters to those who do. Class if not defined by one or two races, or gutsy performances. Although, too many excusable races is ared light to me - classy horses find ways to win, not lose.

You need to read more carefully before you comment.

Repeating something I've written and then attempting to use it against me, doesn't really work in a coherent argument.

And, the point is, this isn't personal; though you always seem to want it make personal. I'm entitled to my opinion. My comments were not directed towards anything you've written. If you don't appreciate my comments, pass over them and pay more attention to those you agree with.

Problem solved.

[Capper Al]

The idea of class is that one doesn't appraise. No figures, no speed, no trip, no pace, no nothing except the finish line and the level of the race condition. Example: The horse finished second by a length in a recent 15000 claimer and is now running in a 12500 claimer. This horse should have the necessary class to win this race with everything else being equal. I am not saying the horse figures. That's what all those other handicapping methods like speed, pace, etc do. These other methods figure. What class tells us is is that the horse is a likely contender. Where this can be nice is for wheeling. The horse might have class but no figures, no pace, or no speed; but one can tell through class that this horse can run with the field. This is how one can find a big payout by including such a class horse in their wheel.

This thread seems split on class. There's one group still trying to hang on to individual attributes such as speed or pace. For these guys I'm re-posting. The only thing figured in class is what is the highest recent race condition level of competitiveness. For this, we use the finish line. Period!

[46zilzal]

Class is a subjective analysis. Quinn tried to quantify it in Class of the Field, his least popular book. Wonder why? because it couldn't be done without too much SUBJECTIVITY.

[Capper Al]

Class is a subjective analysis. Quinn tried to quantify it in Class of the Field, his least popular book. Wonder why? because it couldn't be done without too much SUBJECTIVITY.

Who can't quantify that a Grade 2 winner will more than not beat those who only have won Grade 3 races? There's nothing subjective about this. What everybody keeps trying to do here is use class as a way to figure horses. Class figures contenders and may be used as a tie breaker with one of the other handicapping methods.

[Robert Fischer]

I could have picked several others to quote, but the above will do.

The idea of class is that one doesn't appraise. No figures, no speed, no trip, no pace, no nothing except the finish line and the level of the race condition. Example: The horse finished second by a length in a recent 15000 claimer and is now running in a 12500 claimer. This horse should have the necessary class to win this race with everything else being equal. I am not saying the horse figures. That's what all those other handicapping methods like speed, pace, etc do. These other methods figure. What class tells us is is that the horse is a likely contender. Where this can be nice is for wheeling. The horse might have class but no figures, no pace, or no speed; but one can tell through class that this horse can run with the field. This is how one can find a big payout by including such a class horse in their wheel.



Not everyone agrees that Class ends with Race Condition and Purse Amount.

I think there is correlation. Occasionally some value.



An additional approach is to look at the race conditions and then also go beyond the race conditions and look at the "quality" of the races themselves. Beyond that, looking at the quality of the horses themselves.

We have to handicap to appraise these qualities.

Sometimes an Allowance 50k n1x can draw as a glorified claimer , other times it can be on level with an ungraded stakes...

[Cratos]

Who can't quantify that a Grade 2 winner will more than not beat those who only have won Grade 3 races? There's nothing subjective about this. What everybody keeps trying to do here is use class as a way to figure horses. Class figures contenders and may be used as a tie breaker with one of the other handicapping methods.

Class is subjective because its determination in a broad sense is post de facto. To that end class is determined after the horse’s performance, not before. You as a handicapper can subjectively assess and label a particular horse(s) the “class” of a race based on a set of subjective parameters, but its class will not be determine until after the race. Furthermore I think you are confusing race classifications with “class.”

[Tom]

Yes SUBJECTIVELY. A tough spot varies with the pace makeup. One horse's tough spot is to another a helpful pace scenario.

There are NO hard and fast rules. It is not a simple quantitative summary of inputs as they are most variable and can change radically by one simple scratch.

In your world. There are other approaches out there. And it is NOT always pace. Quinn's attempt were years ago. Massa's are new, and not subjective at all. And, statictically validated.

[classhandicapper]

The trap in this approach is what you used to determine “weak / or tough”. If you used “speed” which you have said is a measure of class, then you have layered similar approaches on top of one another diluting their effectiveness.

Dan,

I understand what you mean.

I rarely look at speed when I measure weak or strong fields because the final time of any given race is dependent on so many variables and conditions (though strong fields tend to be faster than PAR and vice versa).

I do look at CLASS PAR TIMES though!

Almost without question, over the long haul, better horses produce faster "average" final times. Those conditions that impact final time from race to race will vary from favorable, to unfavorable, to in between, etc... The average will get you to reality.

That kind of Class PAR analysis screams and shouts whether the "average" NW2L CLMG 35 for 3+ is better or worse than the average NW1S for 3+ at Belmont in the fall and on and on and on.....

The list of tough class comparisons at almost every circuit is almost endless because the horses don't cross over a lot, a lot of the relationships are seasonal, and some of the relationships change as young horses develop. The same is true of shippers.

As far as I know there is no better way to know where different CLASSES fit ON AVERAGE without using some tangible and easy to measure component of ability like speed and/or pace. You can also do it by tracking how horses that cross over from one class to another tend to perform (which I have done in great detail in NY only also), but the results were exactly the same as the PAR TIMES indicated they would be.

However, that's only my starting point.

I may know that "on average" the NW1S race is the better race and exactly by how much, but I still have to examine the individual field because there are clearly strong and weak fields at every class level.

I look at both quality and depth of field to determine that.

By quality I am actually looking at the CLASS desiginations the horses have been comptitive at (grade 1, Grade 3 etc..), the figures they have earned in the past relative to PAR, the consistency of their performances etc....

For example......

If all the horses have been running in cheap NY Bred races at Finger Lakes, are recent maiden graduates with 25 starts, and horses that have been getting buried in NW1S races while earning below average figures, I know it was a low quality race for that class (and vice versa).

By depth I am looking at "how many" horses fit the race. Were there 2 horses that fit well or were there 7?

Typically, the higher the quality and deeper the race the more competitive the actual running will be (but that's not always the case) and the more likely some very good horses will get outrun, get put away by a superior rival, finish up the track etc...

However, I also WATCH the races to see if the race development was of high quality and highly competitive or whether everyone just loafed around the track. I will also look at the speed and pace figures the horses earned to better understand the development, outcome, and performances.

At the end of that kind of analysis I know where all the classes fit with each other, whether any given race was stronger or weaker than average for the class, and by how much it was stronger or weaker etc...

I've been CLASSING this way for about 15-20 years.

I haven't revealed how I go about finding bets (can't tell everything :D ), but that's the core of the method.

My method is closest to James Quinn's book (Class of the Race), but I don't produce final ratings as much as I produce general impressions like "these horses are similar", "this horse is a little better", "this horse is much weaker" etc....

From there I get into how the race stacks up today.

OK, that's enough secret sauce for today. ;)

[classhandicapper]

Am I confusing you?

You aren't confusing me, but you are talking about something entirely different than we are. I can only conclude that you aren't understanding or paying attention to what WE are talking about because parts of it are obviously scientific and objective. You keep redirecting the conversation to another aspect of handicapping - namely evlauting race development and trip etc.... instead of the actual abilities of the horses in the race. That analysis is always complex. It involves a lot of issues and of course, class which equals ability, is variable.

[Tom]

You need to read more carefully before you comment.

Repeating something I've written and then attempting to use it against me, doesn't really work in a coherent argument.

And, the point is, this isn't personal; though you always seem to want it make personal. I'm entitled to my opinion. My comments were not directed towards anything you've written. If you don't appreciate my comments, pass over them and pay more attention to those you agree with.

Problem solved.

Get over yourself, dude. It not about YOU, it is an open forum discussion., Learn to to live with the fact that you are not the center of anyone's world - you happen to be in the way and THINK it is personal. No one is using anything against you except you. The only problem to be solved is you thinking no one is allowed to comment in threads you you think you own. you arae entitles to your opinions, as is everyone else.

My point is that your example fall short of defining a classy horse. I am looking at the PPs of that race right now. The class of the race is the 4 Society Hostess. 6 wins out of 7 turf sprints, including a G3. 4 new tops in 5 races. This guy is forging. Shows a mile win in listed stakes overseas. This horse fit the condition of today's open stake perfectly. Will it win? Maybe. That is not what class evaluaiton will tell you. How does it fit against other horses? The layoff is a factor, but not one Clemente hasn't overcome before. This one won off a long layoff in June.

1 - Lizzierna. 4 wins and a photo out of 5 turf sprints, this guy picked it up this tear. Lower Beyers and lower class, this guy has not yet shown stakes ability. Maginal contender at best - I would throw out of win spots.

2 - Stormy Kiss. Straner to the winner's circle, not a hallmark of class, 0 for 10, 1 for 12, not impressive. Last two show a bettrer horse at turf sprints, so this one fit today's race condition. Not as good as the four, but a contender.

3 - Genuine. Major improvement second time turf sprint. Lower class, this one might go to stake, night go to claimers. The 97 is mpressive at face value, but today will tell more about this guy's future.

5 - Never tried turf, is going backwards from 3yo form. Not a contender for me - despite two G1 and G2 finishes. Too much unknown to make a call. He wins, I lose. Next race.

6 - Trouble Maker. Might be an outsider in open stakes races. His Beyer history in stakes is 83-85-93...going in the right direction. Contender is open stakes today.

[classhandicapper]

Class is a subjective analysis. Quinn tried to quantify it in Class of the Field, his least popular book. Wonder why? because it couldn't be done without too much SUBJECTIVITY.

It is somewhat subjective, but it has objective components. As your skill and understanding increases, you get better at making the required subjective judgments.

Let's face it, speed and pace figures are also subjective to some degree. They depend on the judgment of the figure maker as to the speed of the racetrack, impact of pace, impact of wind, etc...

[maxwell]

Hard to define for sure. Perhaps it's horses that racing fans love as opposed to admire. Secreteriat, Man O' War, Citation, etc. were so good they were expected to win very often. How about : John Henry digging in for all he was worth. Silky Sullivan coming from 40 lengths back. A 12 year-old winning his 106th start. A horse going to it's knees out of the gate and roaring back to win on the wire.

Your guess is as good as mine. :)

[Capper Al]

In your world. There are other approaches out there. And it is NOT always pace. Quinn's attempt were years ago. Massa's are new, and not subjective at all. And, statictically validated.

Tom,

Who is this Massa guy? What did he do?

You're right. It's not always pace. Class to exist as an attribute has to have it's own identity or it doesn't exist. What is going on here is that a lot of folks are trying to substitute their method of handicapping for class. It doesn't work that way.

46,

Quinn did quantify his methods for class objectively in his books.

[Capper Al]

classhandicapper,

You truly are a class handicapper if you go through all that work. I consider class by scanning the field. I like Danny Holmes on class, author of Ten Steps to Winning, who I interviewed. For claiming races, he looks at horses who finished first or within a length. For allowances or turf, horses within 3 lengths. And for graded races, horses that finished in the top 3. There's nothing subjective about this method.

[classhandicapper]

classhandicapper,

You truly are a class handicapper if you go through all that work. I consider class by scanning the field. I like Danny Holmes on class, author of Ten Steps to Winning, who I interviewed. For claiming races, he looks at horses who finished first or within a length. For allowances or turf, horses within 3 lengths. And for graded races, horses that finished in the top 3. There's nothing subjective about this method.

A lot of the time I don't have to go through all that because it's so obvious, but that's the basis of my thinking.

[46zilzal]

46,

Quinn did quantify his methods for class objectively in his books.
no they were subjective

[46zilzal]

Not at all. Weak and tough, or good races are rather easy to spot to those who know what to look for. Ken Massa has even, very accurately, quantified them.
A $4000 claimer can be tough if all the entrants are close to the same ability.

[46zilzal]

Who can't quantify that a Grade 2 winner will more than not beat those who only have won Grade 3 races?

I love that fact that horses just run. They don't have any idea that others in the field were running listed or grade ones. They simply run to their ability and form, that's it.

[Capper Al]

I love that fact that horses just run. They don't have any idea that others in the field were running listed or grade ones. They simply run to their ability and form, that's it.

You choose to tune out one of the most talked about certainties in racing so that you can stay in your world of pace only. For decades it has been said that a horse of higher class will beat a horse of lesser class in a time slower than the lower class horse has run before. The fact that the horse has no idea of the field is an assumption either way, not a fact. Your premise would negate the effects of the herd instinct unless, of course, you choose to ignore this fact also.

If class is pace or class is speed then there won't be any class. It would be just pace or speed.

[Capper Al]

no they were subjective

Quinn ran statistical analysis on his assumptions. The daily speed variant can be subjective also. There are a lot of PP lines in the slop where the horse's speed figures jump 10 points or more then the horse ever ran. I did a whole thread of speed figures being too variable for certainty. I have seen too many so called early speed horses never making it to the first call. Subjective? And what's so subjective about Danny Holmes approach mention earlier in this thread? He's pretty definite about his choices.

[46zilzal]

You choose to tune out one of the most talked about certainties in racing so that you can stay in your world of pace only. For decades it has been said that a horse of higher class will beat a horse of lesser class in a time slower than the lower class horse has run before. The fact that the horse has no idea of the field is an assumption either way, not a fact. Your premise would negate the effects of the herd instinct unless, of course, you choose to ignore this fact also.

If class is pace or class is speed then there won't be any class. It would be just pace or speed.
anthropomorphism at it's best......When one READS enough and has the experiences of those with degrees in Zoology and or Veterinary Medicine, one realizes this and horses, whom I dearly love, are not as smart as their handlers but subject to the instincts of herd behavior. Hard wired instincts.

Believe the B.S. and be like all the rest who don't ever think for themselves, AND ignore the facts.

[46zilzal]

Quinn ran statistical analysis on his assumptions. Th Subjective? And what's so subjective about Danny Holmes approach mention earlier in this thread? He's pretty definite about his choices.
Having just read the book again, yes SUBJECTIVE. One is called to make a numerical judgement on a performance.

[46zilzal]

You choose to tune out one of the most talked about certainties in racing so that you can stay in your world of pace only.
One never advances in a competitive arena (parimutuels) using "group think" ideas.

'I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I--
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference."

Works in the real world

[Light]

Class = conditioning + fear factor.

When I was in 2nd grade,my father decided to help me with my reading. That "training" had such a naturally positive affect on me,the teacher took note. One day,she asked me to stay after class and asked me if I wanted to jump to the 3rd grade right there and then. Fear factor set in.I declined. I preffered being the best in my class with familiar surroundings,than jumping up in class and being mediocre in unfamiliar territory.

Lava man was a 16k claimer turned into a stake horse by his new connections.On the other hand, good horses can go south with new trainers. Conditioning is a major player in class,just as it was for me.

Fear will impair performance. Alot of what the connections feel about a horse's limits are passed onto the horse physically(blinkers,tongue ties,castration,etc) as well as psychologically.Horses have awareness and consciousness. Connections feel confident about a drop,results reflect it. Coincidence?

But,put a horse in a situation they are not well prepared for and their performance will suffer. However,unlike me in the 2nd grade,they cannot "say" no to a jump in class.They cant say" I am not ready". Most trainers guess and hope their actions are agreeable with the horse. They like to put on an air of professionalism and rave about how well their horse is training before a big race hoping they have the next superstar. After the race they pull out a bag of excuses when they finish up the track. They cant admit,they were wrong and don't really know why their horse performed poorly when a scope for physical problems reveals nothing.

This is a major part of why class is so hard to define: Lack of communication between man and animal. Horses cant say when they're ready to switch class up or down. Handicappers and trainers can only use their limited knowledge to make an educated guess.

[First_Place]

Too many times I've seen cheap, i.e. lower class horses, with higher speed figures lose to higher class horses (with lower speed figures)...especially those higher class animals that have been running a bit over their head as of late in higher classifications, i.e. classes, and now drop down a bit--along with their poorer speed figures.

Cheaper horses, i.e. lower class animals, just do not perform the same when they face higher classed, i.e. better horses. Call it intimidation. They seem to use up more energy and are not as relaxed during the running of the race (which allows them to run a better race) when facing tougher guys, i.e. higher class horses, as opposed to racing horses on par or closer to their level, i.e. class, of competitiveness.

FP

[Capper Al]

Too many times I've seen cheap, i.e. lower class horses, with higher speed figures lose to higher class horses (with lower speed figures)...especially those higher class animals that have been running a bit over their head as of late in higher classifications, i.e. classes, and now drop down a bit--along with their poorer speed figures.

Cheaper horses, i.e. lower class animals, just do not perform the same when they face higher classed, i.e. better horses. Call it intimidation. They seem to use up more energy and are not as relaxed during the running of the race (which allows them to run a better race) when facing tougher guys, i.e. higher class horses, as opposed to racing horses on par or closer to their level, i.e. class, of competitiveness.

FP

This just points to an attribute (class) existing independently of speed or pace.

[Capper Al]

Having just read the book again, yes SUBJECTIVE. One is called to make a numerical judgement on a performance.

I've read the book a couple of times also.

[Capper Al]

One never advances in a competitive arena (parimutuels) using "group think" ideas.

'I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I--
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference."

Works in the real world

Pace thinking is the group thinking today. This website isn't ClassAdvantage.com.

[46zilzal]

I've read the book a couple of times also.
p. 91 Points on the scale requires a subjective evaluation of a performance and award points from that evaluation. Right there in print.

Requires one's evaluation of the HUMAN trait of competitiveness, while all along the horse is simply running.

[Tom]

I think we have seen that we all do not measure pace the same way.;)

[46zilzal]

I think we have seen that we all do not measure pace the same way.
Exactly

[classhandicapper]

This just points to an attribute (class) existing independently of speed or pace.

Class is both those plus other things.

If you isolate speed and pace, you have isolated 2 components of class. If you would like to define the remainder as CLASS you are allowed to, but class includes both those things. Class = Ability

[Capper Al]

p. 91 Points on the scale requires a subjective evaluation of a performance and award points from that evaluation. Right there in print.

Requires one's evaluation of the HUMAN trait of competitiveness, while all along the horse is simply running.

Okay 46,

I got my book out and can see it your way but disagree. Page 80 shows a normal distribution of his "Competitive Quality" Factor. Quinn is always the most complex. Any of his books is like studying a college text. This doesn't mean he's full of BS. Holmes, on the other hand, is clear and to the point. He is not as detailed as Quinn. Both believe in Class as a separate entity.

Again if Class were Pace or Speed then Class wouldn't exist. It would just be speed or pace redefined. This can't be because many have testified that they have observed a horse with lower class and a faster speed getting beat by a slower horse with more class. Now you can take this observation one of two ways. The first is that the observers all missed some handicapping hidden factor, or the observations are bogus. Too many cappers out there are saying that this is true.

[Capper Al]

Class is both those plus other things.

If you isolate speed and pace, you have isolated 2 components of class. If you would like to define the remainder as CLASS you are allowed to, but class includes both those things. Class = Ability

Obviously, class is a level of talent. For a horse that could translate into the attributes that us handicappers would measure like speed or pace, etc. The key to understanding class as a handicapper is that you might not see these traits in the PP lines but should believe in them anyway. If a horse won a 15,000 claimer 20 days ago at the same distance and surface as today's 15,000 claimer, one must believe that he is a contender without the verification from pace or speed. The handicapper has to say that the horse can do it because he did it without the supportive other handicapping elements. That is the acceptance of class as its own entity. And this entity is CLASS as obscure as it might be.

[46zilzal]

Okay 46,

I got my book out and can see it your way but disagree. Page 80 shows a normal distribution of his "Competitive Quality" Factor.
Hmmm which of his book sold the least? THIS ONE

[Dr Win]

"Class, that intangible thing that almost defies definition, controls almost positively the running of thoroughbreds! Class enables one horse to beet another no matter what the physical odds may be, what the condition or what the distance. You may say it is that which enables light bull terrier to whip a big dog of another breed. It enables sometimes one fighter to whip another. As I said before, it is hard to define, but everybody discerns it when it is there."

Pittsburgh Phil (turn of the century gambler)

[Capper Al]

"Class, that intangible thing that almost defies definition, controls almost positively the running of thoroughbreds! Class enables one horse to beet another no matter what the physical odds may be, what the condition or what the distance. You may say it is that which enables light bull terrier to whip a big dog of another breed. It enables sometimes one fighter to whip another. As I said before, it is hard to define, but everybody discerns it when it is there."

Pittsburgh Phil (turn of the century gambler)

Without speed figures and pace analysis in the good old days of Pittsburg Phil, class with its intanggibility was more thought of and used. Class horses may be undervalued today because all the focus is now on speed and pace.

[46zilzal]

Without speed figures and pace analysis in the good old days of Pittsburg Phil, class with its intanggibility was more thought of and used. Class horses may be undervalued today because all the focus is now on speed and pace.
And there were only about 5 or 6 centers of racing with very little shipping........ Public data was minimal as well. They didn't have anything else than some nebulous idea of class...hmm just like today!

harkening back to bygone days does nothing to prop up an a discussion regarding today. Reminds me of some of the old medical texts of that day when things were called "brain fever." Old days weren't always so good.

[Show Me the Wire]

A practical handicapping problem regarding changing cLass is tomorrow's (10/16/07) 3rd race at the Oak Tree meet. The race is an open 32K claimer populated with horses which in their recent past competed at a higher non-claiming levels, including some stake races.

For some of these horses this is the lowest level race, since their Maiden race.

The questions:

Is class important with so many class droppers?

If class is not important what is important?

Is it even possible to
consider class in this race?


These questions as put forth also relate to the proponents of pace and/or speed define class.

Any thoughts? And hopefully discussion will be practical and bolstered by the data regarding this specific race and not just general statements unrelated to the specific data of this race.

[bellsbendboy]

I meant to get in on this thread some days ago but...

My opinion on class is that; it is the ace of trumps, or certainly an ace in predicting the outcome of a horse race. Class, more often than not, is a better predictor than pace, time, speed, race shape or any other weapon in a handicappers arsenal.

Certainly a race for nickle claimers often means that current form is more important than class, but at major circuits class cappers will enjoy a bit of an advantage if they can identify it. A big if!

What is class? My favorite definition is from the 1953 book by Preston Burch entitled "Training Thoroughbred Horses". Appropriately, the last sentence in the book reads; (from memory), "We do not know where a horse gets his class, but we do know that if a horse who has it, runs a couple of hundred yards with a horse that hasn't got it, the latter will pull up just as sure as a man putting the brakes on his automobile".

When is it important? Mostly with youngsters, races where the horses compete for purse money, yet are not for sale, and races over a route of ground. Can it be quantified? Not accurately in my opinion.

Several posts that were interesting;

Tom: I would be interested in how Mr. Massa puts a number on class and where I could read more.

Capper Al: I would agree that Quinn has led the league in writing about class but would argue that some Grade III's are more classy than some Grade II's. I cannot read my notes but some of your other theories seem spot on to me.

Class: Speed is not necessarily a component of class, nor is ability, and time of year is very important. How many Derby winners raced in Dec, or Jan??

Cratos: Isn't determining class before the other cappers a major part of the game? Years ago Oscar Dishman had a horse that ran on dirt and dropped down and down and down, eventually losing for 5,000. Entered in a starter allowance, ON TURF, he won well clear paying some $60 at River Downs. Two weeks later, Oscar told everyone, and I mean everyone at the training center to make sure they bet his horse and they did, knocking him down to about $7 as I recall. Oscar was a hero but to me they went to the birth of the first child and not the wedding.

Dan G The outside animal is a function of practice as trainers work their horses in company. Almost all horses and many riders do not like being inside. The pasture boss is an absolute. I first hand saw Devils Bag and have read that many, many other top horses were the boss of their herds. Conversely, if a horse can't cut it, is a wobbler for instance, the herd will pick on him mercilously. I am not much on the computer capper bandwagon but your term "factor overlay" makes a ton of sense.

Et. al. Terrific thread. I wish I had kept up with it from the beginning and apologize if I have misidentified anyone. BBB

[Robert Fischer]

A practical handicapping problem regarding changing cLass is tomorrow's (10/16/07) 3rd race at the Oak Tree meet. The race is an open 32K claimer populated with horses which in their recent past competed at a higher non-claiming levels, including some stake races.

For some of these horses this is the lowest level race, since their Maiden race.

The questions:

Is class important with so many class droppers?

If class is not important what is important?

Is it even possible to
consider class in this race?


These questions as put forth also relate to the proponents of pace and/or speed define class.

Any thoughts? And hopefully discussion will be practical and bolstered by the data regarding this specific race and not just general statements unrelated to the specific data of this race.

I don't have the pps for this race.

there are quite a few horses that I know, who are being dropped.
Dr. Einstein was running at a higher class not too long ago. Would he be considered the "class" of the race? How is his recent form and who did he race?
Refusal is another was in form not too long ago..

I know the first horse I would look at here is Mike Mitchell's Island Launch.

[Show Me the Wire]

Yes, Robert I agree Island Launch does warrant consideration as he definitely fits the conditions of the race and so does Key Maker and I Beat the Fire (barely). It seems I Beat the Fire is in decent form and his trainer opted for this race instead of the next race a non-winners of two lifetime.

Form versus class?

Also, I am a believer, like Preston Burch, that the herd instinct comes into play.

[GaryG]

Also, I am a believer, like Preston Burch, that the herd instinct comes into play.As am I. The "suckalong" phenomenon causes many ordinary horses to receive inflated figures. Figures they could never earn challenging for the win.

[Show Me the Wire]

Yes, Robert I agree Island Launch does warrant consideration as he definitely fits the conditions of the race and so does Key Maker and I Beat the Fire (barely). It seems I Beat the Fire is in decent form and his trainer opted for this race instead of the next race a non-winners of two lifetime.

Form versus class?

Also, I am a believer, like Preston Burch, that the herd instinct comes into play.


My mistake I see I Beat the Fire won the nw2l condition, so this is a logical step for a horse in good form.

[keilan]

As am I. The "suckalong" phenomenon causes many ordinary horses to receive inflated figures. Figures they could never earn challenging for the win.


Gary many months ago I brought up term "drafting" suckalong is another term that kinda describes what I was talking about. We see this in almost every other sport out there yet when it comes to Thoroughbred racing it is almost never discussed. Why I don't know but it exists.

I think I'm one of the minority out there that isn't onside with this "herd instinct". It exist in the pasture but does it exist on the race track to the degree some suggest. I think not ;)

[DeanT]

I always thought and still do think, class is pretty simple to gauge. It is a horse who gets his own way in a race, because he is better than the other horses, so he runs as fast as he can run. Eg a lone speed type can handle a 5K nw2L because he can be comfortable for a good deal of the time, and even if he gets pressed he can outlast the other animal quickly. Moving to a 5K nw3L, well he does not get his own way quite as easily, and he wilts on the vine.

[DeanT]

I love that fact that horses just run. They don't have any idea that others in the field were running listed or grade ones. They simply run to their ability and form, that's it.

I could not disagree more with this. I know everyone wants to put a "figure" on everything, but they can't. If everything was just speed, Beyer would be richer than Bill Gates and never have sold his figures to the form.

Try this: Go out and buy a 5 claimer. Then run him for a year. One day your horse will run a 60 and then you move him up and he will run a 10. Then your trainer will come up to you after the race and he will get your horse scoped. It will show nothing. And your horse will not be sore either. The horse "cheated". The lower the class of horse the more the "cheating" goes on. They are not tired, they are not sore, they are in fine form. But they cheated. They got head and head and got killed or they tried their testicles off and got no where near the lead and then they simply stopped trying. That is why they ran a 10. That is class. And that can not be measured.

Ask some of the boys with cheap ones at Hastings about that. I bet dollars to donuts a bunch of the boys have had horses get beat by a football field who couldnt even blow out a match after.

[DanG]

I meant to get in on this thread some days ago but...

Several posts that were interesting;

Tom: I would be interested in how Mr. Massa puts a number on class and where I could read more.


Dan G The outside animal is a function of practice as trainers work their horses in company. Almost all horses and many riders do not like being inside. The pasture boss is an absolute. I first hand saw Devils Bag and have read that many, many other top horses were the boss of their herds. Conversely, if a horse can't cut it, is a wobbler for instance, the herd will pick on him mercilously. I am not much on the computer capper bandwagon but your term "factor overlay" makes a ton of sense.

Et. al. Terrific thread. I wish I had kept up with it from the beginning and apologize if I have misidentified anyone. BBB
I’m not trying to nitpick here Bell's at all, but just for clarification…

If I did say that I was typing in my sleep because I have no recollection of ever saying that. I'm VERY much on the computer capper-wagon btw. :confused:

I’m also taking the liberty that Tom would not say that concerning Massa considering he knows more about the man and methods than 95% of us.

As far as the other quotes, I couldn’t say.

Honest mistake, I’m sure they were in the same post or whatever. I do agree with you btw, that its very interesting hearing all of the different takes on this subject. Ranging from it doesn’t exist to all points in-between. Again; thank goodness there are such differences of opinions at the betting windows or our game would suffer.

[Capper Al]

A practical handicapping problem regarding changing cLass is tomorrow's (10/16/07) 3rd race at the Oak Tree meet. The race is an open 32K claimer populated with horses which in their recent past competed at a higher non-claiming levels, including some stake races.

For some of these horses this is the lowest level race, since their Maiden race.

The questions:

Is class important with so many class droppers?

If class is not important what is important?

Is it even possible to
consider class in this race?


These questions as put forth also relate to the proponents of pace and/or speed define class.

Any thoughts? And hopefully discussion will be practical and bolstered by the data regarding this specific race and not just general statements unrelated to the specific data of this race.

IMHO, Class adds to your contender list. One still has to handicap. For a race that you are describing, you may want to look for odds on one of your qualified drop downs.

[Capper Al]

Hmmm which of his book sold the least? THIS ONE

Which of these books is the easiest to comprehend for the general public?

[Capper Al]

Class is both those plus other things.

If you isolate speed and pace, you have isolated 2 components of class. If you would like to define the remainder as CLASS you are allowed to, but class includes both those things. Class = Ability

ClassHandicapper,

I only use speed and pace as an example because they are the most used attributes by the public. I do believe in other attributes.

[Tom]

What I meant was that Massa had developed a class rating for races that is used as both a "par" and a strength of race rating afterwards.Two NW1 allowance races, same purse, might rate 101 and 97.

[Capper Al]

bellsbendboy,

Good reply. I agree. Quinn does seem a bit over about excluding Grade III from the elite horses.

[Capper Al]

What I meant was that Massa had developed a class rating for races that is used as both a "par" and a strength of race rating afterwards.Two NW1 allowance races, same purse, might rate 101 and 97.

Massa is one author I have missed. Would you recommend any of his works?

[classhandicapper]

What I meant was that Massa had developed a class rating for races that is used as both a "par" and a strength of race rating afterwards.Two NW1 allowance races, same purse, might rate 101 and 97.

This is exactly as it should be.

You need some basis for "average" at any CLASS level. PARs work perfectly. But you also need some way of differentiating between very weak, average, and strong fields within any class.

[classhandicapper]

Honestly, I don't want to seem too arrogant on this issue, but I didn't choose my member name lightly. ;)

I'm not sure why people are having such a tough time accepting my definition of Class. This is not a complex subject.

1. Class = Overall Ability

2. Ability is variable and has many components.

3. Some aspects of ability are measured well (like pace and final time speed) but others are not (acceleration, versatility, stamina, gate speed, gameness, courage, and others)

When handicappers measure pace and final time speed well, they have measured much of what is important for determing who the best horses are. However, many realize that there's more to it than that. They call the rest "class" as if it's a vague and unidentifiable factor. But's it's not vague or unidentifiable. It's just all those other remaining attributes of ability (a subgroup) that we can't measure well but that often determine the outcome of races between horses that otherwise seem similar on pace/speed, but are actually not.

[keilan]

My definition of class has been and remains 3 characteristics.

1) Speed = pace and final time

2) Stamina = able to carry his speed %E

3) Heart= will to win

WE are similar enuff in our definitions of class :)

[rrbauer]

Class is when Horse A looks Horse B in the eye and realizes that "I'm F***ed".

[Tom]

:lol: I guess that says it all! :lol:

[bellsbendboy]

Mr. Bauer I agree but the quiz is how to determine "class" before the race!

Dan G Post # 18 you mentioned "dominant outside position" and in #23 you mentioned "factor overlap" although I am not certain how we got off track.

Keilan Using your definition of class; How do you rate class in first time starters?

Class: I agree when you say that horses have varying degrees of ability it is hard to argue with.

46 Have to agree with Dean; horses know who is in the field. As an example; roughly one half of the horses stabled at a race track are maidens and when you win a race you generally face tougher in your next race. Using the Keeneland nightcap today MITHAAL is bred in the purple and broke his maiden then also won an entry level allowance.

Since then he is; Zero for 21 in non claiming races, and 5 for 14 when for sale!! Mithaal knows his class. BBB

[keilan]

Keilan Using your definition of class; How do you rate class in first time starters?




I don't rate "class" in FTS but I certainly play FTS based on other criteria.

[DeanT]

Class is when Horse A looks Horse B in the eye and realizes that "I'm F***ed".

Gee, that's what I said, but why did it take me two paragraphs :D

horses know who is in the field. As an example; roughly one half of the horses stabled at a race track are maidens and when you win a race you generally face tougher in your next race. Using the Keeneland nightcap today MITHAAL is bred in the purple and broke his maiden then also won an entry level allowance.

Get Melman on here. Class in harness racing is the bees knees. The Meadowlands Pace with the best horses in the world can go 149. A 30 claimer the same night can go the same pace and the same speed. Give a horse who won the 30K CL the same trip against champions, he will get beat and pace a second slower. He paced the same figure with the same pace. How can he get beat by ten? Dont the speed figures tell us he'll be ok? When it started to hurt at the end and he realized he was screwed he stopped trying. Classerooski.

I watched every John Henry race on youtube the day he died. When it hurt at the end, he actually looked like he enjoyed it. Pure class.

[Show Me the Wire]

CapperAl:

Thanks for your answer. The purpose of using this race was to further the discussion of class, from the theoretical to the practical application. Nobody has attempted to do this yet.

Class is a function of the physical soundness of a horse and this factor comes into play every race. Yes it is all good and well to say class embodies tangible and intangible variables, i.e. looking another horse in the eye, but is not very useful prior to a race.

So as I proposed before is class, in the traditional sense or modern sense, even a factor in this type of race?

Any thoughts?

[Capper Al]

The Breeders' Cup is one the best examples of class defeating the field and other handicapping analysis. When the Pace, Trip, or Speed capper hits one in the BC they usually, and unwitting, have picked the class horse. The traits of class will include all these other factors, so they just got lucky when the win one at the BC.

[46zilzal]

The Breeders' Cup is one the best examples of class defeating the field and other handicapping analysis.
Wow a definition based upon less than 0.001% of all the horses running. Very broad based application there no doubt.

[Capper Al]

Wow a definition based upon less than 0.001% of all the horses running. Very broad based application there no doubt.

If you agree it works in one place (BC), then you accepted the concept. That's what this thread has been all about.

[46zilzal]

If you agree it works in one place (BC), then you accepted the concept. That's what this thread has been all about.
0.001% is hardly reality. Yes, let's extrapolate the findings of that small a sample and see what erroneous conclusions are the result. Preposterous.

Akin to trying to understand all of baseball's pitchers by watching Marino Rivera save games.

[Tom]

Who says the classiest horse wins the BC anyways?
I would disute that.

[46zilzal]

Who says the classiest horse wins the BC anyways?
I would dispute that.
Pace scenarios can over-ride class advantages. Look at Cigar's Pacific Classic amongst others. Those alone on the lead i.e. Creme Fraiche in the Belmont or Cat Thief in the B.C. Classic.

[jonnielu]

CapperAl:

Thanks for your answer. The purpose of using this race was to further the discussion of class, from the theoretical to the practical application. Nobody has attempted to do this yet.

Class is a function of the physical soundness of a horse and this factor comes into play every race. Yes it is all good and well to say class embodies tangible and intangible variables, i.e. looking another horse in the eye, but is not very useful prior to a race.

So as I proposed before is class, in the traditional sense or modern sense, even a factor in this type of race?

Any thoughts?

In the broadest sense, class is a measure of greatness that manifests in the efforts of champions during the big race. It is the underdog Seabisquit winning anyway. It is Secretariat hitting overdrive going into the first turn at Pimlico, and then racing for the wire from the gate at Belmont. It is Caveat breaking through a crack on the rail to separate himself from the field through the Belmont stretch. It is Street Sense circling the field to win a muddy Kentucky Derby. In this sense, class may be understandable, but difficult to measure. Because, often, class in this sense, is a product of the race itself.

However, none of this Damon Runyun type of romantic perpsective does the handicapper much good, it is hard to measure a notion. Like having a hundred dollar bill in S. Florida, you've got money, but you can't spend it, so what.

Sure, you can handicap class and have some success, but you will need to respect the limits of class handicapping and you are still often dealing with questions that can not be reasonably answered until there is a nose on the wire. Every class handicapper knows that the most likely winner of an allowance - non-winners of one allowance is that horse that won at Mdn. Sp. Wt. level at first asking. But, what if we don't have one of those in the race? Which is the class horse? Winner at Mdn. Sp. Wt. 32,000, or winner at Mdn. Clm. 60,000? One went 5.5f and the other went 6f, today they go 7f. Who da class?

A handicapper needs to translate the grey, fluid, shifting sand of the notion of class into something more solid for measurement. Your yardstick needs to be sound also, if your yardstick is just as shifty and slippery as the idea of class, could be trouble. But , first, a handicapper should translate this class idea into something more solid by seeing it as ability. While ability can be composed of many factors, a handicapper might be less confused by understanding it as a horses ability to run the total distance of ground. Put a sound yardstick on known ability to run the distance, and you have a reliable way to sort out the herd.

The problem with class as a measure of ability is that it is loose, fuzzy, and therefore inaccurate. This one won a grade 3 at 6.5f, and that one won a grade 1 at 7f, and the other one has made 200,000 more money winning allowance races at today's 2 turn distance, but, hasn't run in 97 days. Who da class?

Class as a yardstick is often just as fuzzy. At 5 furlongs, the $10,000 claimer can be very competitive with the $30,000 claimer, but one is supposed to be higher class.

[Tom]

Pace scenarios can over-ride class advantages. Look at Cigar's Pacific Classic amongst others. Those alone on the lead i.e. Creme Fraiche in the Belmont or Cat Thief in the B.C. Classic.
Class doesn't trump everything else......as you say, pace, and also, surface, post, distance, form (condition), jockey.......there is no magic bullet, although some are a higher caliber than others.:cool:

[jonnielu]

Class doesn't trump everything else......as you say, pace, and also, surface, post, distance, form (condition), jockey.......there is no magic bullet, although some are a higher caliber than others.:cool:

Exactly, the fuzzy class yardstick is not a solid method of measuring ability. So the handicapper stirs some other fuzzy measurements into the soup hoping to arrrive at an accurate measure of ability.

When ability is unknown, the handicapper can only guess and assume how other factors may have affected ability. Stir in the idea that post position made the difference here, and maybe the surface made the difference there.

Form, a mediocre race two weeks ago, or a great race 29 days ago, what about that goat that died at the 4f pole last Wednesday? What if all of them run to their ability?

[john del riccio]

About 8 years ago I claimed a filly at LRL for 10k off a race at CNL where she earned a speed figure indicating she was capabble of beat much better. She won first race off the claim for 25% morew than she was claimed for so we tried her in an allowance race and she ran 2nd. My trainer said we could run for for 20 and lose her. I said "why would we do that, she can win the allowance race". The reply was, "she doesn't have alot of heart". Needless to say, she finished off the board in the next allowance race, and the one after that as well. Three races later, she was claimed for 10k when she finished 2nd. Class = Heart in my mind. She needed the lead to run and as soon as she was eyeballed, she folded like a cheap suit.

John

[Capper Al]

Wow a definition based upon less than 0.001% of all the horses running. Very broad based application there no doubt.

46,

The point is that you accepted that class exist. It doesn't matter on the sample size. The question going back and forth was does class exist as an attribute in its own right. If it can be said that one can identify it in one race then it exists. Your statement above accepts that class exists as a factor in the Breeders' Cup. Therefore, you stated that class exists unless you want to withdraw your statement.

[46zilzal]

46,

The point is that you accepted that class exist. It doesn't matter on the sample size.
CRAP. I understand how high wire artists do their job too. That doesn't make that skill or trait any more widespread than this one.

[Show Me the Wire]

jonnielu:

Thanks for the response. I have to ask is your response a yes, no, or maybe to the question regarding whether or not class is a factor in handicapping this typical type of race?

[jonnielu]

jonnielu:

Thanks for the response. I have to ask is your response a yes, no, or maybe to the question regarding whether or not class is a factor in handicapping this typical type of race?

For the handicapper, class is ability, because romantic notions won't put a lot of pork chops on the table. There is one major factor in all horse races, it is ability. Measure ability for the distance accurately, and you will have something distinct and reasonably precise to work with in comparing one to the other.

Because the concept of class is mostly intanglble and at best difficult to measure, it is widely misunderstood. Handicappers will percieve it differently according to whatever angle they believe should be weighted more heavily.

Class exists, and it plays a role, but when translated accurately into ability to run the distance, it can be understood and measured. Seen in this light, it is the true primary consistent factor affecting the outcome of all races.

At all levels of "class".

[keilan]

For the handicapper, class is ability, because romantic notions won't put a lot of pork chops on the table. There is one major factor in all horse races, it is ability. Measure ability for the distance accurately, and you will have something distinct and reasonably precise to work with in comparing one to the other.

Because the concept of class is mostly intanglble and at best difficult to measure, it is widely misunderstood. Handicappers will percieve it differently according to whatever angle they believe should be weighted more heavily.

Class exists, and it plays a role, but when translated accurately into ability to run the distance, it can be understood and measured. Seen in this light, it is the true primary consistent factor affecting the outcome of all races.

At all levels of "class".


Excellent Post -- this poster understands a few things about handicapping :ThmbUp:

[DeanT]

Two very good posts there, by John D and jonnielu, imo.

They show the two perspectives of the debate. Mr Lu the handicapping one, by measuring class "moves" to try and cash bets and John D the horseman/horse owner one, where class is measured by the professionalism of the animal.

[Tom]

I don't know if I would agree that class affects ALL races. I have been going to Finger Lakes since 1963. :eek:

[jonnielu]

Here is a good example of how rubbery the concept of class is from a handicapping perspective. The 7th race today at LAD is a starter allowance at 7f with a purse of 25k.

Most of the entrants are out of Mdn Sp Wt 25K races, a couple out of mdn cl 30k, and one that just won a futurity with a 45k purse, at different distances.

There are 4 first time starters scheduled to go also.

If the class guy wanted to figure the level of this race for purposes of comparing one to the other, he'd probably have to go by the purse and put it down as a 25k race for a view from the class perspective.

From that perspective, I don't see how the class guy could do anything else except bet #6 - My Angel's Halo. Not only does #6 appear to be the class of the race, but the oddsmaker has her down as the third choice at 9/2. He's pointing the public at #2 - Ballistae, and she hasn't run for 43 days with a little work, and died in the stretch at 1m70 last out. The other Mdn Sp Wt start on her record is mediocre. The 2nd choice #10 - The Difference ran 15 days ago in her only start, Mdn Sp Wt and while showing a flash of closing ability at 6f, seems to be pretty slow getting it rolling. Even for today's bastard distance of 7f. #6 appears to be prepared to bring it out of the gate and keep it rolling for 7f. And besides, #6 looks to have more class, unless one of those first timers displays class unexpected.

From the perspective of class, #6 would have to be the confident choice, and if she fails, we would only expect one of the first timers to beat her. And, if #6 gets nosed by #10, the class guy can assume that #10 had class unknown. The problem here, is that the class guy, with results in hand, still doesn't really know.

On the other hand, if we had an accurate measure of ability, and substituted that for the idea of class, the race can look a lot different.

Without regard for the purse size, or who ran where, for what and finished how. Comparison, one to the other is done on the basis of ability to run the distance. For precision, we can even put that in the form of a number and line the entrants up according to early speed. Because that is a factor that affects all results at all distances.

At first, we have #8 - Island in the Sand, she has an early speed advantage, off of a race at 7f, yielding an ability number of 259. A little higher then I'd like, but there are only a couple here that "can" run her down, and she figures to bug out of the gate, even though disadvantaged somewhat by her post.

Third on the early speed list is #6 - My Angel's Halo - With a little less early foot, and a 249 off of a 6f performance, we would expect the extra 1/8 to put #6 right alongside of #8. If #8 gets 2 lengths on #6 at the start, #6 would figure to lack the ability or "class" to run her down.

Now, it gets interesting with the fourth on our speed list, #2 - Ballistae. Coming off of 1m70, she may show a little more early foot shortening up to 7f. With ability at 261 off of that race we should look for her to produce a lower number today because of the shorter distance. We can question condition with 43 days off, but again, she has done some work and is going shorter today.

Sixth on the early speed list is #10 - The Difference, added into the soup with ability at 222, is also going 1/8 longer today. We can expect today's run to yield 222 - 242. This shows #10 to have the ability to either jump in the early speed mix, or considering post position, run down the leader through the stretch.

Last on the early speed list is #1 - Stacy Lee, she waves one smooth even performance at us on the grass at 71/2f. Fairly equal with 7fD and ability at 255 with an advantagous post position, Stacy Lee has the ability to mess up all the plans for piling the table high with pork chops. We could figure that the dirt will tire her, but we could be wrong. Females are not known for the mad dash.

On top of all that, one of our first time starters, #7, displays form in the range that if she were to win, I wouldn't be surprised at all.

I don't need to tell you about betting the number 7 in the 7th race.

I will pass this race, because the only reasonable betting strategy I see is to box the tri or quad with 6 horses. I would only do that if I could see the horses physically at the track.

My point here is that by comparing abilities, you get a true picture of the race for betting purposes, as opposed to taking shots based on a shifting notion. I expect the result chart to bear me out as having an accurate picture of this race.

[bellsbendboy]

Johnnielu

I do not have a form but why would four first time starters be entered in a starter allowance? Someting does not make sense. BBB

[DeanT]

That is a good perspective and summation Jonnie! I liked it anyway.

It is interesting to me - this game - and it makes it the greatest game in the world, that so many different observations can be made on the same race, and the winner may be picked by many, but for different reasons. And then after the race the successful handicapper will say, "see, I told you it was the class/trainer/pace _____ fill in the blanks.

Much that we do is based on a sulf-fulfilling prophecy. It is one of the reasons I do not, and never will be in any one camp in wagering, or handicapping.

Example: A 25 claimer is picked up by Lake. Drops to 10. Wins by a football field. It was a speed horse in a race devoid of speed. One camp would say class won that race. One camp would say the pace of the race. One camp would say the trainer change and the drop and pop.

Go to a track and sit in the grandstand and hear people talk about a horse who has been tagging along in perfect stalking trips in 25's, and who never wins. People will call that horse a no trying rat. Drop him to 10 and he wins by five, after rubuking a couple of challenges, going away off the same trip. Now that horse is a "classy" animal. The fact is, he was the faster horse that day, in a spot where he fits. He is exactly the same horse who raced at 20.

As for the super-cheap ones, or the enigmatic ones..... Well, good luck applying pace, speed or any other figure to handicap them. A cheap filly will run today, but it doesn't mean she will run today. She could have heard a car horn on the way to the track that spooked her, she has her ears pinned back in the paddock and she decided today she "aint much for the racing thing". After she gets beat running her racing style, and me betting her with the 401k money, I might say it was the track she didnt like, or she is better stalking now, or whatever. Forget it. She is nothing but a no class beast and the best advice is to turn the page.

[Show Me the Wire]

Here is a good example of how rubbery the concept of class is from a handicapping perspective. The 7th race today at LAD is a starter allowance at 7f with a purse of 25k.

Most of the entrants are out of Mdn Sp Wt 25K races, a couple out of mdn cl 30k, and one that just won a futurity with a 45k purse, at different distances.

There are 4 first time starters scheduled to go also.

If the class guy wanted to figure the level of this race for purposes of comparing one to the other, he'd probably have to go by the purse and put it down as a 25k race for a view from the class perspective.

From that perspective, I don't see how the class guy could do anything else except bet #6 - and keep it rolling for 7f. And besides, #6 looks to have more class, unless one of those first timers displays class unexpected..................


I respectfully disagree with your application of class. Class is not limited in definition to purse size. The tangible aspect of class is speed over an amount of ground (distance), while carrying weight.

People usually associate purse size with class, because people assume better i.e. faster horses always compete for higher purses. This is a faulty assumption.

Speed and pace are functions of class. A horse that can cover a specific distance in fast time,while attending to a quick pace has tangible class. However, tangible class changes according to the soundness of the horse.

That is why I picked the Santa Anita race to continue the discussion of practically applying class. That particular race type was a typical recurring race containing horses with changing class, with which handicappers must contend.

Myself, I personally do not believe believe tangible class is even important in this type of particular race including its components of pace and/or speed.

[Tom]

We can't discuss that race, SMTW, because SA did not run the 16th. :rolleyes:

[Show Me the Wire]

That is a lot of typing Tom Oak Tree at Santa Anita. I guess I could have typed OSA, but then some would ask what is OSA?

Me bad.

[Tom]

They didn't run the 16th either.
The 17 maybe? ;)

If so, here is my class evaluation of the 3rd:
Refusal – probably fits here – ran acceptably at $45k and won at $25K. A proven loser in allowance company, he should settle in at $32K or less.

Key Maker – I see no class issues. This one should be running here or slightly lower.

Island Launch - His pattern of development suggest he is heading for mid to low level claimers. I don’t like him at this price or distance. Nothing suggest he can handle the class or distance. I throw him out on class.

Smoocher – Pattern of development says mid claimers. Maybe low claimers, maybe a cheaper circuit. Nothing about this guys say quality. He should keep dropping until he finds a home near the bottom. His late style might make him competitive on some polys. This kind can show some life, briefly during the drop, like last time, that will draw money with a drop like today’s. Sucker money. He might improve today, but his path leads down, not up.

Oceanus – old horse, best days long gone. He will hand around claimers, showing spots of form, maybe some brief class rises, but inevitably, his future lies in claimers, as his daily aches and pains allow him to feel good and run. Each season, I expect his best to be at a lower level than the year before.

Dr. Einstien – Looking for a comfortable claiming range to settle down in. Another fast starter went as high as he could and is on his back to earth.

Not knowing the results, I would say the way to use class here is that the sharp horse, suited to the distance and surface, Key Maker, is not outclassed and even though stepping up a bit, is suited to this race. Smoocher showed improvement third off the layoff and drops today – he is the logical dropdown to look at.


Now watch them run last and next to last!

[Show Me the Wire]

OOPs really bad, yes Wednesday the 17th. In my original post I on the 16th I typed tomorrow but inserted the 16th. Good trick eh, today and tomorrow are the same.

[Tom]

It seems that way at work......often!:eek:

[Show Me the Wire]

My take on the race:

#6 I Beat the Fire - scratched

#1 Refusal - last competitive race, by my definition, on May 5, 2007 at the 25k level and that was off a short layoff after two large consecutive class drops, needs an easier field today. He is one of those horses that picks up the pieces for the minor awards.

#2 fits seems to be in form. Knock on him - running against much less a few months ago. How high can he ascend again?

#3 Island Launch - Barely fits the conditions of this race. Should be too valuable to risk for this claiming price. Meaning too many conditions left in state bred races. Must have severe physical problems only 13 races and is a 5 year old and last three races totally uninspiring.

#4 Smoocher - Running against tougher recently and not really impressing. However, not running against much today after running into hot horse Westerly Magic, last race. Fits well today on the drop. Especially trainer drops in price while adding weight, usually a positive sign for trainer intent.

#5 Oceanus - Another contender like Smoocher. Like the #1 won after a freshening for the 25K tag, but has been competitive since with a win at the oc62/n2x. Looks like a well meant drop by a savvy trainer. Claimed two races ago for 32K, out of a good effort, and dropped back to 32k after one race on the turf for a higher tag.

Horse is old but sill can compete with these.

#7 Dr. Einstein - has the look of a horse with serious physical problems. A serious injury must have occurred after the allowance win on Jan. 29, 2007. Only 4 races since the last win and all non-competitive as the horse, while being well beaten, either finished last or next to last in each of the four races. Meeting at least three tougher horses today in Oceanous, Smoocher and Key Maker.

My contenders Oceanus, Smoocher and Key Maker. My selection Oceanus, but it was tough to separate Oceanus from Smoocher. I gave Oceanus the edge because I thought Oceanus was a couple of lengths faster than Smoocher.

I believe the above is a better way to discuss the existence or non-existence of class, instead of general statements or broad concepts without practical application.

[Tom]

I think we are both looking at the class thing closer than not. I never looked a speed fig for that race ( I downloaded BRIS at work and have learned to ignore thier numbers).

Nice call on your top 2 - they don't get any closer than that!

[Show Me the Wire]

Thanks Tom for the compliment and for you input.

As an aside Dr. Einstein needs to run against much easier. The jock took him off the pace looking for late speed, which is not unusual off a big class drop, and the Dr. had no response. This horse is going to need an infected tooth pulled to reverse his form :lol:

[Show Me the Wire]

Husker55:

Did you learn something?

[jonnielu]

Johnnielu

I do not have a form but why would four first time starters be entered in a starter allowance? Someting does not make sense. BBB

Sorry, I don't have a form either, and I pay as much attention to conditions as I do class.

[jonnielu]

My take on the race:


I believe the above is a better way to discuss the existence or non-existence of class, instead of general statements or broad concepts without practical application.

So does Oceanus get the edge because of class, or are you saying that class is a nonfactor and offering the dead heat result as evidence?

Pick a race for tomorrow and let's do it.

[Show Me the Wire]

I am saying Oceanus was my selection because I thought he could still run a few lengths faster than Smoocher, both were in the same class on the 17th, but maybe not today or next out.

Class depends on the physical soundness of the horse today. Class is fluid as it changes daily. You receive your hints about the current class or physical soundness of the horse by understanding why is the horse entered into this particular race and the horses past history.

[Show Me the Wire]

Don't have the form.

[jonnielu]

I am saying Oceanus was my selection because I thought he could still run a few lengths faster than Smoocher, both were in the same class on the 17th, but maybe not today or next out.

Class depends on the physical soundness of the horse today. Class is fluid as it changes daily. You receive your hints about the current class or physical soundness of the horse by understanding why is the horse entered into this particular race and the horses past history.

Sounds like you are saying the same thing I am, class is shifting sand. I just don't understand why some people like to base their handicapping on something so slippery.

Did you bet on Oceanus?

[Show Me the Wire]

Yes, I did. And I was worried because I didn't think he passed Smoocher. Well it turned out he didn't.

Isn't speed and/or pace just as slippery?

[classhandicapper]

There's an excellent interview with Brad Thomas in the DRF Breeder's Cup Preview. He talks about some of the particulars of handicapping at MTH and some of the major horses. He's obviously a great student of the game.

He doesn't talk about "Class" per se, but he talks about some of the individual qualities of various horses competing this year in a way that I have been trying to stress.

[bellsbendboy]

Johnielu Not paying attention to conditions (class) is like going to a reataurant and ordering dinner without looking at a menu. BBB

[keilan]

So does Oceanus get the edge because of class, or are you saying that class is a nonfactor and offering the dead heat result as evidence?

Pick a race for tomorrow and let's do it.


KEE 10/20/2007 Race 9 5:15 7.0f Poly RavenRun-G2 3 yo F

Grade 3 race over at Keeneland that should separate the wheat from the chaff. Good luck gentlemen :ThmbUp:

Oceanus was too easy - all in the WR pounded that horse. Some had the x's to boot

[jonnielu]

Yes, I did. And I was worried because I didn't think he passed Smoocher. Well it turned out he didn't.

He had the ability (class if you want) to do so, but, usually all of the ability must be laid out between the gate and the wire. Because, once the gate opens, the wire is coming. There is no time for screwing around.

Isn't speed and/or pace just as slippery?

Yes, it is. But, speed is the one consistent factor that always has the greatest affect on the outcome of a race. Now, when I say speed, I am talking about what you would call early speed, and that is what I call it also to differentiate it from any beyeresque notions that speed continues through the distance. There is no speed at the end of a race, there is only slowing down.

Pace makes the race, but, it is produced by the early speed of the contestants. For example, the jockey on the horse with the greater early speed takes advantage of his #2 post and flys out of the gate running for the wire right now, knowing that his best shot at a win is to get as much distance right here right now.

The jockey sitting on the horse with the greater ability (class if you want)sees at 100 yards out that this situation has put him 4 lengths back, does his horse have the ability to close this gap before the wire arrives? The greater ability says that his horse will tire less through the end of the race. So now the question is will the leader tire that much more.

If you had more accurate yardsticks then class, speed, pace to measure this with, you would be able to make accurate predictions before the gate opens.

Your Oak Tree race is a fine example of the slipperiness of all three yardsticks.

Overall ability for the distance is composed of early speed and, let's call it the abilility to sustain. Understanding that no horse really sustains, but that is a reasonable description of what I'm talking about.

Lining them up according to early speed, I see that Dr. Einstein and Island Launch are at the top of the list, tied in the rating for early speed.

On overall ability Dr. Einstein is a 302, he's been on vacation, but doing some work. Hits the board because he's fresh enough to run to ability.

On overall ability Island Launch is a 293, a slight advantage in ability, but going at it for 2 turns every two weeks is a bit much. Could use a break, and the results suggest that he took one.

Refusal is a 309, last in ability, last in the results.

Oceanus is a 243, the greater ability, should be able to run down any of the other 5, next time, bring a smarter jockey.

Smoocher is a 281, second in ability, jockey seems to know it and makes better decisions early.

Key Maker is a 300, last in early speed, but likes to get with it at the start. Oceanus blows greater ability (class if you want) with poor jockey decisions.
Smoocher chases right off, and Oceanus runs out of room.

Speed as you know it, had little effect here, because Oceanus could and did outrun the rest. Pace had some effect, because it prompted Oceanus to loligag early, but if Einstein had blasted out of the gate, Oceanus probably would have slipped in right behind him. If the Pace benefited a horse here, it would be Smoocher. But, having an accurate measure of ability going in, you couldn't figure that Smoocher would benefit from it. And, my point is, that you wouldn't need to try to predict the pace anyway. Or, the class. In the form of ability for the distance (class if you want), class is obvious and measurable.

For betting purposes, Oceanus would be the only horse here that you could bet, too bad for the jockey error, it is not often that you have get a false favorite create a good bet at a good price in a six horse race.

This race is also an example of a classic mistake that the public frequently makes, and the handicapper should always be able to take advantage of. Even without knowing the ability gap, Key Maker wouldn't figure for a strong effort here, and is only a favorite because he won last out. Knowing that he didn't have the ability to win in the first place would just be that much better.

BTW - Ability (class if you want) does not change day to day or week to week.

[jonnielu]

Johnielu Not paying attention to conditions (class) is like going to a reataurant and ordering dinner without looking at a menu. BBB

For generations, handicappers have mined conditions and studied the elusive concept of class. To the point that they are cornerstones of race analysis.

What is the average mutuel paid on a winner in the 21st century?

[Tom]

What are these numbers you are using to define ability, and you think that they are not slippery?

[Tom]

For generations, handicappers have mined conditions and studied the elusive concept of class. To the point that they are cornerstones of race analysis.

What is the average mutuel paid on a winner in the 21st century?

Doesn't mean a thing. You can't assume anytning about individual players from a global statistic. You ares implying that more people would be betting on class horses and thus driving down the prices. Not the case.

[Show Me the Wire]

................................BTW - Ability (class if you want) does not change day to day or week to week.

I agree with most you said, especially what occurs in the first 1/16th of a sprint race being meaningful as to position and jockey decisions.

Own a race horse for a period of time and let's see if your concept about ability not changing day to day will be modified.

keilan:

You guys are a tough crowd ;)

[keilan]

keilan:

You guys are a tough crowd ;)


Hey bud would you rather I suggest a six horse field :)

The Kee race is a good test of understanding class imnho

[jonnielu]

Doesn't mean a thing. You can't assume anytning about individual players from a global statistic. You ares implying that more people would be betting on class horses and thus driving down the prices. Not the case.

No, I'm pointing out that people are always betting on class horses, yet the average mutuel paid doesn't budge. That says something about the validity of what is being studied as far as its affect on the out come.

[jonnielu]

Hey bud would you rather I suggest a six horse field :)

The Kee race is a good test of understanding class imnho

In the order of ability:

#7 and #13 are tied, #7 has a class (if you want) edge and deserves to be favored.

#5, #11, and #3 are strong contenders.

#8 and #2 can ruin someones weekend plans.

This race will be a calvary charge grabbag in the stretch unless one of them makes an effort to bring it from the gate so that #7 can run her down. Unless #7 brings it for a rare wire to wire at Keeneland.

I could only bet this race if were at the track and able to sort these further by physical analysis. The other half of the game.

[skate]

class is a Pecking order.

best measure is money, overall or recent.

[keilan]

class is a Pecking order.

best measure is money, overall or recent.


Sorry skate -- wrong answer, go directly to jail and don't collect $200 dollars ;)

[GaryG]

I like West Coast Swing. Ritter is bringing her along carefully and she like a real up and comer. Worth every penny of the $700K they paid for her as a weanling. As to the class issue, it is still very fluid with developing 3yo.

[Show Me the Wire]

jonnielu:

But how do you define class. I ask this respectfully and to continue developing this provocative thread.

I understand Keilan's definition as he previously defined it as being made up of three components:

1) Speed = pace and final time

2) Stamina = able to carry his speed %E

3) Heart= will to win.

And I know Keilan will analyze the race using the above concept.

I am not sure about how you apply class, as in one post you indicated purse amounts and in your more recent post you talked about early speed. It would help if you gave reasons why the #7 and #13 are tied with the class edge going to the #7. Also it would be helpful if you give some reasons to support what you said about the other horses.

I am sure Keilan will support his analysis with reasoning as he has done in past exercises.


I am hoping classhandicapper will chip in as this seems the type of race he talks about in theory.

As for me, I do not have a form and I have other commitments today so I can not participate in this particular race.

[skate]

Sorry skate -- wrong answer, go directly to jail and don't collect $200 dollars ;)

john henry was class and thats how i got my $200....:kiss:

[keilan]

john henry was class and thats how i got my $200....:kiss:


skate don't make me call for security :cool:

[skate]

skate don't make me call for security :cool:

exited:p

[Tom]

I don't think this race will seperate the wheat from the chaff. Maybe the chaff from the rotten chaff. :lol:

Very poor graded race. Whatever wins it will have accomplished little. This is a good example of a low class race for the level.
The possible not rotten chaff are the 3,7,8,10,11,12, and 14.

I don't know if I would use the word class edge for any of them. I think it will come down who is not sore today, and who feels good. But as far as class, I think all thier futures are behind them.

:confused: Can this race possibly reamin a graded stakes afer this miserable excuse edition?

[jonnielu]

jonnielu:

But how do you define class. I ask this respectfully and to continue developing this provocative thread.

Class as I define it = the ability to run the distance.

I understand Keilan's definition as he previously defined it as being made up of three components:

1) Speed = pace and final time

There is only 1 kind of speed. It is the given horses ability to run full tilt boogey, balls to the wall, hell for leather. For most around 4f.

2) Stamina = able to carry his speed %E

Quarter horses might carry their speed to the wire, thoroughbreds usually run a little farther then a quarter.

3) Heart= will to win.

Will to win is a fine component, it works predictably when coupled to ability to win.

And I know Keilan will analyze the race using the above concept.

I am not sure about how you apply class, as in one post you indicated purse amounts and in your more recent post you talked about early speed. It would help if you gave reasons why the #7 and #13 are tied with the class edge going to the #7. Also it would be helpful if you give some reasons to support what you said about the other horses.

#7 and #13
(sorry for the delay, I had to count some winnings from the 3rd at LAD. Apparently there was only one horse in the race with the ability to win it. of course the next horse on the ability yardstick was second too.)

are tied in ability. The class (and when I say class here, I mean class more as you understand it) edge I give to #7 because if you look at the record, you will see that #7 has separated herself from the rest of this field by accomplishing what the fewer accomplish. #3 also has credentials along the same line. If your idea of class is which ones are a cut above, these two are.

Take 1000 records, see how many won their first start at Mdn. Sp. Wt., only to turn around and win their next race and first allow., only to turn around and win the next, their first stake. You won't find a lot. Those that you do find are champion material, or high class (if you want).

But, when they compete against each other, they still have to be compared on the basis of ability, because they are in the same class ( as you understand it).

I am sure Keilan will support his analysis with reasoning as he has done in past exercises.


I am hoping classhandicapper will chip in as this seems the type of race he talks about in theory.

As for me, I do not have a form and I have other commitments today so I can not participate in this particular race.

I don't know if a classifier would really enjoy it.

[jonnielu]

#7 and #13 are tied in ability. The class (and when I say class here, I mean class more as you understand it) edge I give to #7 because if you look at the record, you will see that #7 has separated herself from the rest of this field by accomplishing what the fewer accomplish. #3 also has credentials along the same line. If your idea of class is which ones are a cut above, these two are.


I'm also discounting #13 because I would expect her to suffer a decline in ability since she is coming in from Cal.

[keilan]

I'll post something later depending on how correct I'am

in order -- 7-3-5-2-13

gl guys

[Tom]

#7 and #13 are tied in ability.




By what criteria?

[jonnielu]

By what criteria?

By my yardstick, they are both 137

My yardstick measures past performances on a couple of criteria. Early speed is the most important of these.

The reason that I said #2 - Jibboom was one that could spoil someones weekend plans was because Jibboom came up 125. Her 8.5f race is measured using a different par, but that race came up -17. Consideration of Jibboom was difficult not because of moving from grass, but because of moving to poly. The question was, how would the stable run this horse on poly?

#3 Exciting Justice is 184
#8 Over the Edge is 203
#11 Mini Sermon is 211
#5 Her Majesty is 232

Of interesting note #14 Quota is 191

Now I know that I've got Her Majesty in the top 8, and she doesn't belong there according to my yardstick. And, you are right.

Here's what happened, Her Majesty has pretty good early speed. Although early speed would figure less heavily on poly, I was thinking it could play a bigger role here, what with the purse size and all. And, I bent to the notion of class, what with this being a high class race and all. With the vacation, and the works, I scooted Her Majesty up a little.

Where is that guy that thinks ability is fragile and ever changing?

[Tom]

I don't see this race as high class at all.
It was a G2 in name only.

[jonnielu]

I don't see this race as high class at all.
It was a G2 in name only.

Well Tom, This seems to be the problem with the common perception of class. In reality, it often is not what it is supposed to be. It only makes a good yardstick when class is a known measureable quantity. Most of the time, we can only guess at class, and we've got little to work with.

It's like this, Jibboom displayed the ability that I figured she had today. She has class, but we still don't know how much. We thought that West Coast Swing had a lot of class, but apparently, not enough today. Maybe she'll have more next out, but, we won't know until there is a nose on the wire.

Unless, we get a better yardstick.

[Robert Fischer]

I don't know what you can tell about "class" in 3yo polytrack sprint

anything could happen in the Raven Run

There were at least 4 horses who had to be considered top win candidates.(seaside affair/westcoast/Hermajesty/minisermon) If you add in Jibboom(who happened to win the race) and Quota - then you now have 6 horses.

6 horses is still leaves out 2 contenders : LookDeep(winner@6.5delmar) and justice(versatile talent recently sold)

Now we have 8 contenders :faint:

All 8 of those horses are very good 3yo polytrack fillies. A few of them are probably Grade1 3yo polytrack fillies whatever the hell that even means.

most aren't so great on a dirt or turf track.

for what it was, the race was highly chaotic and up for grabs, with only the winner Jibboom really asserting dominance. I couldn't make a case for Jibboom as a key horse before or after the race, but she was definitely a contender who was on my exacta.

[Show Me the Wire]

Where is that guy that thinks ability is fragile and ever changing?

That guy says the above bases it on personal knowledge gained through experience. Forgive me but I do not see any thing in your analysis that contradicts the fact that soundness impacts ability.

But that is what makes a horse race differing of opinions based on different experiences.

[njcurveball]

I think I need to play polytrack!

Just pulled up this race in HTR and the $8,688 Superfecta was comprised of the top 4 3rd fraction horses with the winner being #1 3rd fraction!

I am going to be looking at Keeneland a lot more when races like this confuse even the people here.

[keilan]

I don't see this race as high class at all.
It was a G2 in name only.


Nobody said this was a high class race, but it would test the skill of each handicapper. First of all it was a full field with older 3yo's going 7f, cheap speed wasn't going to be the winner here no matter what.

Generally these races go to the best horses, or horses that are rounding into form.

I think I tend to share jonnielu's perspective on determining class. Simply put I estimate the ability of each animal in each race against projected and known variables and establish their ranking. The classier animals are on top of that ranking.

I like others thought Jibboom would run on poly but wasn't sure how good she would be today.

[bellsbendboy]

While the posts, on this thread regarding class have contained much prattle (myself included) all competent handicappers agree, class exists, and, is a potent prerace indicator of the outcome.

Does the class horse always win? No. A stakeswinner coming back after a layoff against allowance foes is seldom a good bet.

In one word sum up class. Accomplishment! BBB

[Hosshead]

Class - It's the thing that the horses know more about, than the humans do !

[jonnielu]

I don't know what you can tell about "class" in 3yo polytrack sprint

Measure ability accurately, and switch that for the mystifying concept of class, and it tells you all you would want to know. Polytrack is a minor factor.

anything could happen in the Raven Run

Understand why, and the extent that it is true, and many wagering opportunities will be unveiled. A good situation for the wagering man.

There were at least 4 horses who had to be considered top win candidates.(seaside affair/westcoast/Hermajesty/minisermon) If you add in Jibboom(who happened to win the race) and Quota - then you now have 6 horses.

If we replace the soft measurement of class with an accurate measurement of ability. It lays out like this.

#2 Jibboom - 125
#7 West Coast Swing - 137
#13 Look Deep - 137
#3 Exciting Justice - 184
#9 She's a Little Flirt - 186
#4 My Fair El - 188
#14 Quota - 191
#12 Seaside Affair - 196
#6 Super Freaky - 202
#8 Over the Edge - 203
#11 Mini Sermon - 211
#5 Her Majesty - 232
#10 Swiss Diva - 232
#1 High Cholesterol - 252

Lower is better.
With no consideration to any other factors, even the two that impact these numbers. This measurement of ability tells us that Jibboom didn't happen to win this race. That is an assumption we would be lead to draw with the slippery yardstick of class. When the results do not yield solid answers, the opportunity to learn, is little.


6 horses is still leaves out 2 contenders : LookDeep(winner@6.5delmar) and justice(versatile talent recently sold)

Now we have 8 contenders :faint:

If we now consider those two factors that impact ability ( early speed, distance ), and this raw measurement of ability, with the intent of now measuring further for "ability to run the distance", the lineup looks like this:

#2 Jibboom - 125
#7 West Coast Swing - 137
#3 Exciting Justice - 184
#11 Mini Sermon - 211
#13 Look Deep - 137 - #13 discounted / rating earned on west coast
#8 Over the Edge - 203
#14 Quota - 191
#5 Her Majesty - 232
#10 Swiss Diva - 232
#9 She's a Little Flirt - 186
#4 My Fair El - 188
#12 Seaside Affair - 196
#6 Super Freaky - 202
#1 High Cholesterol - 252

Now, there are only a couple of factors left for consideration here. They have little to do with past performances. The first is stable effort. "Are they going to try to win today?" This impacts the measurment of ability, when the horse of greater ability does not make the effort to run to that ability for whatever reason. This is a larger question in races at lower class levels, at this purse level, you can safely assume stable effort. However, that does not mean you can also assume stable ability to get the job done.

Connected to stable effort, is the horses physical condition (or ability if you want) today. You can not get a hard answer to this question from the form if the horse has not been racing recently. At this purse level, you can assume it if you want, but, that assumption is much riskier then the assumption of effort.

There is one horse here that calls for answers to these questions, and without some hard answers, we should expect anything. #5 Her Majesty is 232 off of her last 105 days ago. We cannot discount her on that performance because her previous performance was 174 at the same distance. Going back one more, we find a fine run on the Keeneland poly at 7f. This one reckons up at 185.

The question of whether this horse is likely to run to her ability today can only be answered well with ontrack inspection from the paddock through the warmup. We can see that she has been working, but, to assume that she is back and ready from that, is a shot.

All 8 of those horses are very good 3yo polytrack fillies. A few of them are probably Grade1 3yo polytrack fillies whatever the hell that even means.

most aren't so great on a dirt or turf track.

for what it was, the race was highly chaotic and up for grabs, with only the winner Jibboom really asserting dominance. I couldn't make a case for Jibboom as a key horse before or after the race, but she was definitely a contender who was on my exacta.

I disagree, and I believe that if you eliminated the guesswork of class, and replaced it with some accurate measurements of ability, you would be working with something that reveals reality, as opposed to working with something that masks it.

2 Jibboom 1/2 15.80
7 West Coast Swing 2 - 1 1/2 2.10
11 Mini Sermon 3 - 1 1/2 6.60
13 Look Deep 4 - 3/4 10.60
8 Over the Edge 5 - 1 3/4 19.10
3 Exciting Justice 6 - 2 1/4 9.20
14 Quota 7 - no 18.70
10 Swiss Diva 8 - 1/2 19.10
5 Her Majesty 9 - 3 3/4 5.70
1 High Cholesterol 10 - 1 1/4 89.40
12 Seaside Affair 11 - 4 1/2 5.40
9 Shesa Little Flirt 12 - 7 42.50
4 My Fair El 13 71.90

Exacta $158.40 2-7
Superfecta $8,688.60 2-7-11-13
Trifecta $249.50 2-7-11

If the results do not consistently affirm your analysis, they are telling you that either your analysis, or the basis of it, is inconsistent.

[classhandicapper]

jonnielu:

I am hoping classhandicapper will chip in as this seems the type of race he talks about in theory.



I was busy yesterday and didn't look at this race until after the fact, but I would have made West Coast Swing the "class of the race". Her figures fit well, she was lightly raced, undefeated, looked impressive in victory, and competed well against similar horses.

My second tier would have been Mini Sermon, Exciting Justice, and Seaside Affair for similar reasons.

[Robert Fischer]

something to learn from the raven run - or maybe just another red herring for the hounds to sniff on--

in these Synthetic-Turf races , with Synthetic-Turf horses ....
.... A horse's ability to win/compete in good company on the TURF is one of the best class-indicators that we have to look at.

It is no secret that top class turf racing embarrasses Synthetic-Turf racing. This is true at every track in the world that hosts decent Turf races and also hosts Synthetic-Turf. Even with the Trumped up Synthetic-Turf purses that some of these tracks offer due to the direct transfer of the Stakes Races from dirt to Synthetic-Turf at tracks like Keeneland.

Jibboom had shown she could run in good company on the turf. We know Cozzeens love the Synthetic-Turf. We saw the good works. We read the clockers comments that said how easy she went in both works.
Sure it would have been hard to separate Jibboom from Seaside,Mini,WestCoast,or HerMajesty. - not the point - the point is looking for and recognizing class-indicators to apply to Synthetic-Turf Racing.

[Tom]

Well Tom, This seems to be the problem with the common perception of class. In reality, it often is not what it is supposed to be. It only makes a good yardstick when class is a known measureable quantity. Most of the time, we can only guess at class, and we've got little to work with.

It's like this, Jibboom displayed the ability that I figured she had today. She has class, but we still don't know how much. We thought that West Coast Swing had a lot of class, but apparently, not enough today. Maybe she'll have more next out, but, we won't know until there is a nose on the wire.

Unless, we get a better yardstick.
That was no problem with "common class perception," it was a statemnt of fact. Not being a real G2 definately afects the way I approach handiapping it.
Very able horses fall behind in legit grades stakes every day.

[46zilzal]

Many times on many surfaces, it is the horse for course that can win over inherent class, but more so at lower levels. I see this all the time at Aqueduct.

[jonnielu]

something to learn from the raven run - or maybe just another red herring for the hounds to sniff on--

in these Synthetic-Turf races , with Synthetic-Turf horses ....
.... A horse's ability to win/compete in good company on the TURF is one of the best class-indicators that we have to look at.

It seems that you prefer "class-indicators" that provide well for excuse making, rather then those that actually indicate something.

It is no secret that top class turf racing embarrasses Synthetic-Turf racing. This is true at every track in the world that hosts decent Turf races and also hosts Synthetic-Turf. Even with the Trumped up Synthetic-Turf purses that some of these tracks offer due to the direct transfer of the Stakes Races from dirt to Synthetic-Turf at tracks like Keeneland.

Jibboom had shown she could run in good company on the turf. We know Cozzeens love the Synthetic-Turf. We saw the good works. We read the clockers comments that said how easy she went in both works.

And apparently, it means nothing to you, because of what?

Sure it would have been hard to separate Jibboom from Seaside,Mini,WestCoast,or HerMajesty. - not the point -

It seemed simple enough to me, my yardstick measures ability to run the distance.

the point is looking for and recognizing class-indicators to apply to Synthetic-Turf Racing.

I don't think you are looking too good, you don't seem to be doing much recognizing. Have you ever noticed what the differences are between dirt, turf, and poly.

[Robert Fischer]

I don't think you are looking too good, you don't seem to be doing much recognizing. Have you ever noticed what the differences are between dirt, turf, and poly.

Was this directed at me?

[Robert Fischer]

Ok ^ I see the bolded quotes now, sorry
my response is in blue



Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
something to learn from the raven run - or maybe just another red herring for the hounds to sniff on--

in these Synthetic-Turf races , with Synthetic-Turf horses ....
.... A horse's ability to win/compete in good company on the TURF is one of the best class-indicators that we have to look at.

It seems that you prefer "class-indicators" that provide well for excuse making, rather then those that actually indicate something.

To Agree or disagree with concept of Turf-Class being an indicator of Synthetic-Turf-Class, is 100% fine:ThmbUp:. I misunderstand the "excuse making" question and it seems almost like a personal comment. If now is the time to redboard I increased my bankroll for the session by 13% with this race. Nothing to celebrate wildly about, but it was satisfactory. If you have an opinion, it would add to the discussion.



It is no secret that top class turf racing embarrasses Synthetic-Turf racing. This is true at every track in the world that hosts decent Turf races and also hosts Synthetic-Turf. Even with the Trumped up Synthetic-Turf purses that some of these tracks offer due to the direct transfer of the Stakes Races from dirt to Synthetic-Turf at tracks like Keeneland.

Jibboom had shown she could run in good company on the turf. We know Cozzeens love the Synthetic-Turf. We saw the good works. We read the clockers comments that said how easy she went in both works.

And apparently, it means nothing to you, because of what?

The above quote was meant to support specifically why Jibboom's Turf-class was aplicable for a transfer to synthetic-turf.


Sure it would have been hard to separate Jibboom from Seaside,Mini,WestCoast,or HerMajesty. - not the point -

It seemed simple enough to me, my yardstick measures ability to run the distance.

Well done.
I am not that good. With my skill level it was hard to separate these horses using all the information and opinions I had.


the point is looking for and recognizing class-indicators to apply to Synthetic-Turf Racing.

[Tom]

Turf form freqeuntly translates nicely to some poly surfaces. Jiboom was what., your 5th-6th-7th choice in the rpe race post? I wouldn't be telling others that they aren't doing it right.:lol:

[Pell Mell]

I guess I'll throw my 2 cents in and that's all it's probably worth.

I think that class is two things wrapped up in one package. Class is ability within a designated classification and determination, or heart.

To use boxing as an analogy, a lightweight with a ton of ability is not going to beat a heavyweight of average ability. Good trainers bring their charges along slowly, always trying to engage an opponent of lesser ability in order to gain experience and confidence. There comes a time when the competitor must meet someone of equal ability, within the respective classification, and then class shows it's face as in, "No Mas".

Hollendorfer says horses can be taught to lose by always running them in a classification where the others have more ability. That's the reason he drops horses way down the "Classification" ladder. The term class is used rather loosely in racing and most take it to be the class designation of a race rather than the classification.

All things being equal, class drops are the only tool a trainer has at his disposal to eventually get his charge in a winning situation.

When I decide a couple of horses are about equal in ability within a classification, I then like to look at how they established their ability. I usually discount wire to wire wins where the horse was able to garner a big lead and was never challenged. Horses that run big when going head to head and are game to the wire are showing class but this class usually only exhibits itself within the proper classification. Just my opinion.:)

[Tom]

Street Sense if a good example of class -0 he won the BC Juvy, the Derby, 2nd in the Preakness, won the Travers. He shows up on game day.
Hard SPun had to look long and far for a spot to win. He beat SS last, out, but does anyone seriously put him in the same class as SS?

[keilan]

Hard SPun had to look long and far for a spot to win. He beat SS last, out, but does anyone seriously put him in the same class as SS?


Yep -- in a match race at most distances :)

[Robert Fischer]

I disagree, and I believe that if you eliminated the guesswork of class, and replaced it with some accurate measurements of ability, you would be working with something that reveals reality, as opposed to working with something that masks it.

Your comments here border on being condescending.


I did not really consider class when I personally handicapped this race.

Form, visual appraisal of replays, potential, pedigree, running style, and allowing for uncertaint were pretty much my entire focus here.




Your pre-race comments actually were very similar to mine. I thought you did a good job with your run-down.



http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=434490&postcount=175
#7 and #13 are tied, #7 has a class (if you want) edge and deserves to be favored.
#5, #11, and #3 are strong contenders.
#8 and #2 can ruin someones weekend plans.
This race will be a calvary charge grabbag in the stretch unless one of them makes an effort to bring it from the gate so that #7 can run her down. Unless #7 brings it for a rare wire to wire at Keeneland.



here are my pre race comments:
Seaside Affair probably as the top selection. West Coast Swing visually the most talented, still isn't automatic to give Arlington form a free exchange onto Keeneland. Mini Sermon is absolutely expected to be well placed and professional. Her Majesty runs big at home. Look Deep has run well on every synthetic known to man. Exciting Justice is sharp and versatile. Quota and Jibboom should love the course and distance.

[classhandicapper]

Anyone that thinks that a single result tells us anything about where these horses "classed up" is just being silly. To begin with, class is dynamic. Ability is dynamic. Also, in this case there were obvious question marks about surface preferences. Things like that and trips etc... always impact results and complicate analysis, but they are seperate issues.

IMO, the favorite was the obvious class of the race even though she finished second. That she didn't win tells us very little because the winner may have moved up on the Kee surface or the favorite may have moved down a little. They were also both lightly raced. So there could have been a form change. These are all issues that go beyond simply classing horses.

[GaryG]

II think that class is two things wrapped up in one package. Class is ability within a designated classification and determination, or heart.Quinn quantifies these two characteristics in Class of the Field. Imperfectly, but still a useful figure. I haved used the principle ever since I first read the book 15 or so years ago.

[racefinder2]

What is Class-

The way a horse runs his races rather than just the adjusted time, and at what levels/distances a horse can carry his form and speed and emerge victorious vs hard pace pressure, multiple challenges, or adverse circumstances. Being able to 'make his own trip'. Winning at a high level, finishing big, clearing out or drawing off with something left. Dominating the competition.

Something that better horses have 'more of', speed in reserve, a big winning move that can be consistently made under varying circumstances. More '1's' in the PP lines than other finishes. And of course, the resulting big speed ratings. Speed always comes out in the end as a by-product - or is the other way around ? ? ? class is speed is class is speed is............

You know it when you see it. It isnt something a computer can spit out accurately. Its a fast horse that doesnt necessary 'look good' on paper going in, especially in preliminary type races like nw allowances for 2-3yo. It can be different for younger horses, turf racers, distance-or-other 'specialists'. Not entirely quantifiable, more intangible than not, but its there, none the less.

This would be 'racing class' rather than bloodlines, etc. which is a whole different matter.

To the rest of the good posts here, ditto....hard to add anything else.
Now, who do I bet on??? And I know this is coming so dont say 'the favorite' .:bang:

My 2c about 'class conditions' is that there are some great alw or gr III races and some really bad(slow) grade I-II races, and great Mdn winners going into alw races against a bunch of losers, although not usually..........I learned a lot from the Quinn and Cramer books, they are a good starting point.

The Triple Crown and Breeders Cup races are almost always a step up in class from other races, no matter what the designation.

[Tom]

Yep -- in a match race at most distances :)

That is not class. Match races are seldom fair tests of anything.
What I'm saying is HS will never be anything other than a runner up against quality horses at classic dstances. He is at best a nitch horse who can beat lesser at shorter distances.

[Pell Mell]

That is not class. Match races are seldom fair tests of anything.
What I'm saying is HS will never be anything other than a runner up against quality horses at classic dstances. He is at best a nitch horse who can beat lesser at shorter distances.

Tom, I seldom disagree with you but I think match races are really the only way to decide who is best of a pair of horses. In most races a front runner has to be softened up for the closer that's why they use rabbits. When I see a front runner repulse several bids and still hang in to the finish that's class. HS in the Derby showed me he is a class horse. It's like 3 guys beating on somebody and then the 4th guy finishes him off and says "I beat him".:)

[Tom]

That's the way I fight! :eek:

[jonnielu]

Turf form freqeuntly translates nicely to some poly surfaces. Jiboom was what., your 5th-6th-7th choice in the rpe race post? I wouldn't be telling others that they aren't doing it right.:lol:

Sorry Tom,

I got involved in the discusion because it seemed to be about the definition of class, and whether or not the concept itself had any real value in the average race. This question, and several others have captured my interest since 1977, and I have formed some opinions that are based on putting money through the windows, spending time behind the binoculars, and leaving Gulfstream Park without money to pay the turnpike toll.

I haven't intended to tell anybody here that they are doing something wrong. I have been suggesting over the last few days in this thread that perhaps there may be a better way to measure a horses ability to run the distance, then what is commonly understood as class. Instead of provoking some discussion along that line, I seem to be ruffling feathers by stating my beliefs that class (in the usual perspective) handicappers are at a disadvantage.

Apparently, I failed to make any point with the discussion of the race at Oak Tree, so I saw the offer of moving to yesterday's 9th at Keeneland as another opportunity to get the point across. Since I was busy lining up my action at LAD when I saw the suggestion for KEE 9th. I was in a hurry to do my ratings for the race and get them up before post time, thinking that would help make my point.

So, I typed only the post numbers of my top 8, in loose order, and gave a quick run down of why they were the top 8 more within the scope of "class"
because that is what we are discussing here. #2 was pointed out as a threat to win because I knew what my ability numbers were, and I know about turf, poly, and dirt. I didn't want to post my ability numbers, because you had asked about them, and frankly, I don't want to discuss them in any more detail then what I already have.

When I saw that my this top 8 had filled the first 7 spots in the order of finish, I then posted the numbers, again trying to make the point that when the results make sense with your "going in" ratings, you are doing something right. That the results should reinforce your methods, and if not, you should question your methods. I kinda thought that the top 8 filling the first 7 spots in order relative to ability, might finally make my point. Sorry.

I also said in that pre-race post that I could not bet on this race unless I could see the horses physically to sort them further. Because, that is the other half of the game, and I wanted to also make that point. Sorry, if I may have offended anyone with my style.

Maybe I should add a disclaimer to my posts.

************************************************** ******

The preceding has been an attempt to make a point and to reach the classifier before he slips into the analytical vortex known as woulda, shoulda, coulda, maybe, if, sometimes, and horses for courses.

While this commentary may at times seem terse, impatient, annoying, and/or insulting and inflammatory, it is offered as a sincere attempt to provoke thought and share ideas on thoroughbred analysis in general.

[keilan]

Excellent Post -- this poster understands a few things about handicapping :ThmbUp:

I said this back in post #143 and his (jonnielu) stock continues to rise.

You've written more truth about handicapping in the past 48 hours than I've read on this board in a long time.

A lot of posters in this thread went "missing in action" when it came time to post their selections yesterday, which is far to common here but expected.

Robert Fischer is one of the good guys here, he is genuine and always sincere.

[Tom]

I didn't know it was a suddenly a contest.;)
Like I posted ahead of time, not a race I would touch, especially not at Kee, a track I do not play period. But If I ever need to have a 7th place pick I know who to go see.:rolleyes:

But what you two area calling class, I call pace and form. A part of class, but not the definitive element. To each his own.

I thought two particular post, the one abut where is that guy.....refering to SMTW and the other one, you must not be looking too good to Robert were uncalled for high school level, espcially when it too 8 picks to get a winner.

[jonnielu]

I said this back in post #143 and his (jonnielu) stock continues to rise.

You've written more truth about handicapping in the past 48 hours than I've read on this board in a long time.

A lot of posters in this thread went "missing in action" when it came time to post their selections yesterday, which is far to common here but expected.

Robert Fischer is one of the good guys here, he is genuine and always sincere.

Hey Kielan,

I think you picked a great race to look at yesterday, too bad there wasn't more pre-race input, and a lot of why to go with it. Keeneland was a good track for it too, too bad guys are so phsyced out about poly that they can't see the income opportunities. It was a nice attempt to whip up some good discussion though.

Thanks for the positive comments too, I always like to to get some recognition other then the pidgeons at Hialeah unloading on me after a disappointing 10th race.

[keilan]

Hey Kielan,

I think you picked a great race to look at yesterday, too bad there wasn't more pre-race input, and a lot of why to go with it. Keeneland was a good track for it too, too bad guys are so phsyced out about poly that they can't see the income opportunities. It was a nice attempt to whip up some good discussion though.

Thanks for the positive comments too, I always like to to get some recognition other then the pidgeons at Hialeah unloading on me after a disappointing 10th race.


It's keilan -- and you"re welcome, any praise from me is earn.

Take a few moments and view some of my tickets played the past week at keeneland. See Selection Forum

And check your PM box

[jonnielu]

I didn't know it was a suddenly a contest.;)
Like I posted ahead of time, not a race I would touch, especially not at Kee, a track I do not play period. But If I ever need to have a 7th place pick I know who to go see.:rolleyes:

But what you two area calling class, I call pace and form. A part of class, but not the definitive element. To each his own.

I thought two particular post, the one abut where is that guy.....refering to SMTW and the other one, you must not be looking too good to Robert were uncalled for high school level, espcially when it too 8 picks to get a winner.

Hey Tom,

That's too bad, Keeneland is a wonderful income opportunity for the wagering man. Just look at the first race today.

I don't call anything class, I call class ability, because that is what it is.

Sorry, but in a sincere discussion, I am not trying to offend anyone by offering evidence of the contrary in response to a statement they made. I am inviting them to back up their statement. And, I would like to have their commentary in regard to evidence to the contrary. How could a lover of meaningful discourse be offended?

Do you like the disclaimer?

[DeanT]

I don't call anything class, I call class ability, because that is what it is.



I personally think you and classhandicapper would land on many of the same horses, would you not? You'd define the map on how you got there differently.

[Show Me the Wire]

jonnielu,

Most of the opinions offered here, especially on this thread come from experience. I believe many here put money through the windows, spent time behind binoculars and some have spent many hours actually training and owning.

Your experience does not make you unique among your fellow posters. I do not say the above to be offensive, but only to educate you to the type of people that populate this board.

I admit I did not get your points, but a light went on when Keilan said you probably measure class some what like Keilan. You take some objective standard that can be quantified and measure the horse against it. Great.

I too am interested in esoteric discussions concerning class and that is why I jumped into the fray. Although I enjoy discussing theory I like to apply theory to real events.

Regarding the Keeneland race I am sorry I could not participate due to geographical limitations. However, It is my belief handicapping that type of race is actually trying to predict the eventual class of a horse and not handicapping established class.

As for myself, I measure class by the way a horse behaves in the race.

[DeanT]

I liked Jonnie's thought process. He worked hard at doing what he does. That is to be commended. It makes perfect sense to me, too, and I would bet he picks contenders as well as anyone.

This just bums me out a little, and it is one really weird part of the racing game with us handicappers:

The preceding has been an attempt to make a point and to reach the classifier before he slips into the analytical vortex known as woulda, shoulda, coulda, maybe, if, sometimes, and horses for courses.

I.e. that a "classifier" automatically slips into a vortex. Classhandicapper explained to us his selection process using class on a recent thread. I wasn't sure it would work, but it made sense and it was logical. Who am I to say he is slipping into a vortex? He explained how he measures and deals with class. He could be a millionaire betting class for all I know.

There are so many ways to play the races. Countless ways. Sometimes I wonder if Ernie Dahlman came on a chat board in 1995 with a fake name and said he played shoes, if there would 15 pages calling him a doofus. We are an odd breed us handicappers.

[Tom]

Agree Dean, not disagreeing with the ideas, just not happy with the presenter. Class applies to the handicaper as well, usually.;)
Since I've been doing alright for years with my definition of class, I see no reason to suffer high school attitudes to learn nothing new.

My disclaimer: Bite me

[jonnielu]

I personally think you and classhandicapper would land on many of the same horses, would you not? You'd define the map on how you got there differently.

Of course we would, after all, there is a horse in every race that would be perceived as "the class". And, that horse wins around 30% of the time.

We would be riding the same horse when the ability horse is also the class horse.

The problem is that usually, it is financial suicide to bet the 100% of races to find out exactly which 30% wins. Since what is perceived as class is typically overbet.

Realizing this, the classifier intelligently goes about an effort in developing his handicapping skills to the point that he can uncover the "hidden class" in order to get a price and take advantage of mistakes on the part of the public.

I look through the filter of ability, and this provides me with a better idea of when I have a good betting opportunity. If I expressed ability in terms of time, and there were three horses in a two turn race with 1 second of difference amongst them, my method of measurement tells me to pass.

The classifier is usually tempted to take the classier horse, and rely on class to carry the day.

Although it is reasonable for the classifier to go down this road, the problem he encounters on this journey is that a large portion of the public is doing the same thing, and there is not much hidden in a positive performance. The gold that he is panning for is actually found in more abundance in races that do not fit todays conditions, and what he will see as poor performances.

[DanG]

I liked Jonnie's thought process. He worked hard at doing what he does. That is to be commended. It makes perfect sense to me, too, and I would bet he picks contenders as well as anyone.

This just bums me out a little, and it is one really weird part of the racing game with us handicappers:


I.e. that a "classifier" automatically slips into a vortex. Classhandicapper explained to us his selection process using class on a recent thread. I wasn't sure it would work, but it made sense and it was logical. Who am I to say he is slipping into a vortex? He explained how he measures and deals with class. He could be a millionaire betting class for all I know.

There are so many ways to play the races. Countless ways. Sometimes I wonder if Ernie Dahlman came on a chat board in 1995 with a fake name and said he played shoes, if there would 15 pages calling him a doofus. We are an odd breed us handicappers.
Well said Dean! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Tom]

I think the case we have here is what would our reaction have been had Ernie came here and told us all we were wrong for NOT playing shoes. This is basically what johnnielu is doing. This diatribe about the enlightening the poor "classifier" is a rerun of countless other airheaded posters who know it all and delude themselves into knowing what everyone is doing when in fact, they do not have a clue. A good thread on how others handle class turned into a chest-pounding contest to feed egos.

[keilan]

Many players on this board and elsewhere wouldn't know "class" if it bit them imho.

Tom this isn't aimed and you :)

[Tom]

I still like R Bauer's definition the best. :lol:
(Post 123)

[Ernie Dahlman]

Doofus? Luckily my grandchildren don't know about Pace Advantage.

[DeanT]

Doofus? Luckily my grandchildren don't know about Pace Advantage.

Hey Ernie,

I think I actually spelled it wrong. I think it is "dufus". I have only been called it audibly about a million times, so apologies :)

Nice response Jonnie. As I said, I agree with you. I think your way might possibly be flat-out brilliant. Remember the old story in Beyer's picking winners, way back when you started trying to quantify class? In that chapter an old track vet spanks him in a selection of a class horse against one of his who had a 10 beyer advantage and he said "I wish there was some way to add class to my figures". From reading some of your stuff, it appears you have. I think that is brilliant.

I just think (and I could be wrong, because he hasnt quite explained it as well as your process is explained to us) that maybe classhandicapper is mining class data in such a way to unconver hidden positives too. I personally mine class drop/rise of the claim etc, based on trainer moves and intent. That works for me and I am happy with the way I use class.

Anyway, interesting thread and I did learn some things, for that I thank you.

[keilan]

Too often at on this board we are more concerned about how something is said than its content. We’re all big boyz here and don’t need to continually stroke each others feelings. Certainly tolerance and good manners are expected.

Do you have any idea how many false favorites will run this week, I’m not talking about the legitimate favorite that runs and loses. Every single false favorite is a group of players “class horse”. This is just one example of how players misidentify class.

One of the goals for anyone learning this game is to accurately assess false and legitimate favorites. If a player can’t do that at least 90% of the time they should be spending more time learning ways of measuring a horse’s potential, ability, or class.

I believe it was SMTW that suggested that we apply our interpretations of “class” in an upcoming race, great idea and the best way to learn imo. As is generally the case far too few stepped up and some of those that did are now being accused of chest pounding and the like. Not fair

We have a choice to either embrace new and well thought out applications in handicapping or to dismiss them because they don’t fit our agenda or because of the perceived tone they were delivered.

Good capping and the best of luck to everyone playing this weekend

[46zilzal]

False favorites are easy to find. Three races in a row, facing close to the same fractions, they expend more energy early so that both the total energy goes down and the %median goes up.

Has worked for years, continues to do so.

I have shown multiple examples of this including that old Barry horse, who just had a work out ....the sly, and oft injured old gelding.

[Show Me the Wire]

Correct, I attempted to expand the discussion through practical application. I chose the OSA race as good example of a typical race in which class may or may not be important depending how a person defines class.

I had hoped there would have been more discussion prior to the race, but sadly there wasn't much. I posted my analysis with detailed reasoning for each horse. I attempted to show how class is effected by soundness and the impact on horses like, like Island Launch.

My only question, for my edification, was how do you quantify something so elusive. For young sound horses sorting their class levels out, it maybe easier to have a set of objective variables to measure their past performances. After all that is what you need to do to project how the young horse will develop. I concur pace, early speed are important variables in races for young developing horses.

But is it feasible or possible to do the same with established class? That is where I would like the conversation to flow.

The conversation would flow better if reasons were given for your opinion (not looking for anyone to disclose proprietary material) like with Smoocher, going down in class and adding weight, and not assuming your personal experience is far more advanced than others.

The important part is not selecting the winner, but discussing the practical reason you assign class to the horse, if we desire to keep this thread going.

And Keilin I always value your handicapping insights.

[46zilzal]

Selecting a track with a brand new surface was not the greatest choice.

[46zilzal]

Just about the time I described the "going off form" angle, Mint Prospect gives a perfect example in the 2nd race at Fort Erie finishing OUT.

Unable to keep up with the early pace progressively the last three, this one gets the lead then stops. Total energy down, median % up.

[46zilzal]

Same race, the horse finishing dead last, had the same pattern. Le Grand Marnier.

[Tom]

SMTW....good post. I do not try to "quantify" class into a number. I look at class as that inner heart that pulls the measurable together - speed, pace, endurance, early speed.......

The problem with young horses is that that are learning and they will fail, losing to horses they will trounce in 6 weeks or so, or not handling a distance the first time they try it. One of my favorites plays is the horse who tries a route, shows a good run, then hangs late. Next time out, many improve by many lengths.

A couple of weeks ago, one of the preps for the Turf BC race - one horse, and I don't have my notes here right now, was hopelessly blocked along the rail deep into the stretch. Int he shadow of the wire, he literally bulled his wat through and exploded for a few strided to get the win. The velocity for that couple of seconds was probably far and away much faster that will show in any PPs - it was so fast, so little ground, but enough to burst through. That was, IMHO, class in action. When you look at his PPs for that race next out, it will not show the great acceleration I saw - he will only have a decent F3 and probably not an outstanding turn time, as he was unable to run much of the race

I agree class must take into account distance and surface. As impressive as this horses was in the turf route, I would not give him a second look in the sprint.

But I rely on pace and speed to quantify things.

Let's do another race, even though you got two winners out it and I got a half of one!:D

[keilan]

There are basic truths about racing – same variables should be weighted differently when we look at age, sex, distance, class level, running surface, size of field, pace projections, energy dispersion and connections of the horse to name a few.

For example in cheaper young horse fields -- when sprinting, early speed carries more weight than it would in the BC sprint. Energy dispersion in turf routes carry more weight than cheaper horses sprinting down the hill at Santa Anita.

Tom brought up an interesting point when he asked “does anyone seriously put him (Hard Spun) in the same class as Street Sense? I replied “Yep -- in a match race at most distances”. And believe me I would book those bets.

This goes back to some basic truths about racing, the classier the field the more dominate the early speed must be to win. That horse has to put away the other speed horses, and then put away the pressers that are now making their run and finally they have to outlast the sustained runners.

Now let’s look at the low level maiden runner, most of the field will never win more than 2 races lifetime. Early speed becomes a much more weighted variable in these races, the speed horses has to put away a couple other foes and the race often belongs to him. The pressers and sustained runners might fill the 2nd and 3rd spots.

It’s like betting exactors would the player wager on the order of finish in the same fashion in the high and low end class levels – of course not because different attributes fill those spots in each of those fields.

I have in the past used the term “potential”, jonnie uses the term “ability” others use the term “class”.

For me personally I set the parameters for each field and based on that, try and determine who has the best percentage of winning the race or filling the other money spots. Of course we always have one eye on the odds board after we come up with our contenders and try and take full advantage of the different pools based upon our opinion.

Am I trying to determine the “class horse” in its conventional description? Hell no, Am here to make money.

I have only scratched the surface here but truly I understand each poster’s level of experience because at most points I’ve been there. Hopefully what I have written adds to the thread and a light goes on for at least one other player.

And SMTW I too have valued your insights into handicapping as well other topics of discussion.

[skate]

it says right here.


pace is pace
speed is speed
form is form
winner is a winner.


but, ahhh, class is none of the above.

Class is pecking order.

which you can measure in Money (dollars, yen).


free at last:cool:

[DeanT]

Very nice post in #240 K.

Some nice nuggets of info.

[Robert Fischer]

When speaking of Class as an individual attribute rather than a classification, I tend to use the term to describe a certain type of horse who has certain qualities.

In general I am speaking about route races longer than 8.5 furlongs.


A CLASSY HORSE(route class) :

INHERENT ABILITY - The horse exceeds the minimum amount of Talent needed to be competitive.

Stamina - A class horse has plenty of stamina to run the distance of the race.

CAN RATE -When there is no quality speed maintaining a winning-threat... A good jockey on a class horse can disregard the cheap speed and save plenty of horse for the finish. Class horses do not get excited and drawn into a fast pace, Class horses are not rank to the point it affects their race. Class Horses do not mind company.

SHOWS A RESPONSE - Response is basically a synonym for "turn-of-foot". The horse responds to the jockey. He will try to get position early if asked. He will make some headway on the backstretch if asked. He will start a drive when asked.

Is Game to the Wire - A classy horse finishes willingly with interest. Not only does his ability to rate and his stamina allow him to run efficiently, A classy horse runs with maximum effort through the wire.

WHATS THE CATCH?? - A classy horse has to show aptitude in the 5 subjective qualities above, while running in the higher purse/race classification company. :p

[dutchboy]

Are you looking at class or the competitive level of the horses? Comp level defined as the avg level the horse finishes 2 or fewer lengths behind the winner.

Example would be sunday 10-21-07 at santa anita race 4. Winner paid 75.40 Class rating had it 7th worse out of 8.

Competive level had the horse tied for 2nd only one level below the top rated horse. The horse it was tied with ran 2nd. In a computer program the high priced maiden that has run well could be rated close to or better that an allowance horse that may have only ran 1 good race.

I AM TRYING TO DEVELOP MY OWN SYSTEM AND I AM IN NEED OF ASSISTANCE. I HAVE HAD RACES WHERE I BET ON AN ALLOWENCE HORSE AND GOT WIPED OUT BY A HIGH PRICED MAIDEN. I HAVE BEEN USING THE THEORY THAT THE LEVEL A HORSE CAN RACE AT IS THE LEVEL IT LAST WON AT.

OBVIOUSLY, I NEED SOME INPUT AND THANK YOU FOR YOUR HELP.

[jonnielu]

jonnielu,

Most of the opinions offered here, especially on this thread come from experience. I believe many here put money through the windows, spent time behind binoculars and some have spent many hours actually training and owning.

Your experience does not make you unique among your fellow posters. I do not say the above to be offensive, but only to educate you to the type of people that populate this board.

I'll bet nary a one has had the pidgeons at Hialeah unload on them within one minute of losing the 10th by a neck.

I admit I did not get your points, but a light went on when Keilan said you probably measure class some what like Keilan. You take some objective standard that can be quantified and measure the horse against it. Great.

Sort of, I measure ability from the PP's. I translate that into a par for comparison of one to the other.

I too am interested in esoteric discussions concerning class and that is why I jumped into the fray. Although I enjoy discussing theory I like to apply theory to real events.

I only like theory up to the point that it is not demonstrable. From that point, it can become unfounded belief. Of course, all discovery starts with theory. Theories are good, nobody can come up with one without doing some thinking. I just don't understand why the thinking stops with so little evidence that the theory is valid and demonstrable.

If we did some thinking, and came up with a reasonable theory of how to get a stick of wood to stand up on its end, and seven out of ten of them were falling down all of the time. Should we not take a second look at our theory at some point?

Regarding the Keeneland race I am sorry I could not participate due to geographical limitations. However, It is my belief handicapping that type of race is actually trying to predict the eventual class of a horse and not handicapping established class.

The established class is what it is, why predict the eventual class of any entrant for todays race. It may appeal to ego six months up the road to say that you say it coming, why not assess class today for todays race?

The only difference between a race with a large purse and an everyday race is that you don't need to spend a lot of time wondering about effort when the purse is big.

As for myself, I measure class by the way a horse behaves in the race.

Okay, so you look at PP lines for how the horse ran a particular race at a particular distance and class level. What does it actually tell you? What would the previous example of Smoocher and Oceanus tell you if you were looking at the PP's of that race going into the next. And it is 35,000cl 8f?

[jonnielu]

I.e. that a "classifier" automatically slips into a vortex. Classhandicapper explained to us his selection process using class on a recent thread. I wasn't sure it would work, but it made sense and it was logical. Who am I to say he is slipping into a vortex? He explained how he measures and deals with class. He could be a millionaire betting class for all I know.

There are so many ways to play the races. Countless ways. Sometimes I wonder if Ernie Dahlman came on a chat board in 1995 with a fake name and said he played shoes, if there would 15 pages calling him a doofus. We are an odd breed us handicappers.

Maybe I should have said abyss, but the classifier doen't automatically slip into it. He/She is at greater risk of slipping into it at periods when He/She is not getting consistent reinforcement. When a classifier gets nosed, which reinforcement does he come away with? That he/she did everything well and got nosed just due to racing luck. Or, that he is close, but got nosed by the horse that he didn't measure well.

And, if class is an accurate yardstick, shouldn't he have had an inkling that the goat that just won by 6, might do that. The handicapper is at great risk of slipping into the vortex when reinforcement is at odds with belief for long periods of time.

[jonnielu]

Too often at on this board we are more concerned about how something is said than its content.

I believe it was SMTW that suggested that we apply our interpretations of “class” in an upcoming race, great idea and the best way to learn imo.

Good capping and the best of luck to everyone playing this weekend

Excellent post Kielan, and an excellent idea from SMTW, hopefully there will be broader participation. I'm still waiting to discuss the Oak Tree results further.

[keilan]

Excellent post Kielan, and an excellent idea from SMTW, hopefully there will be broader participation. I'm still waiting to discuss the Oak Tree results further.


Which post jonnie 233 or 240 I thought both were excellent ;)

and it's keilan - I don't wanna go over this again.

[46zilzal]

classification: a systematic arrangement in groups or categories according to established criteria.

This is where the man made categories, in a supposed effort to equalize the competition, started to overlay this "mystic" quantification. Horse's pecking orders don't always fit this structure.

[Tom]

Horses seek a lever where they can win.
Those levels are class.

While they are defined by the racing secretary, the horses move to the ones they are best suited to. Those that do not don't win.