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View Full Version : Lock O' The Day 10/09

chickenhead
10-09-2007, 10:38 AM
what could possibly be a better lock than a confirmed quitter, moving from MCL to MSW? That's right in our wheelhouse, ba-bie!

SUF 5: 8 CARSON CAMP
DanG
10-09-2007, 11:27 AM
what could possibly be a better lock than a confirmed quitter, moving from MCL to MSW? That's right in our wheelhouse, ba-bie!

SUF 5: 8 CARSON CAMP
Attention all Bridge jumpers!!!

http://blog.pennlive.com/lvbreakingnews/large_bridgejumper.JPG
chickenhead
10-09-2007, 11:42 AM
great pick Dan...cover of my in-the-works newsletter candidate!

while I'm hoping to wrap this up tomorrow, I may just have to pop back in with a lock or two from time to time. This has been way too much fun!
melman
10-09-2007, 11:48 AM
I gotta remember now $4,000 to win on the 8 SUF R5. :jump: :jump:
xtb
10-09-2007, 01:27 PM
Nu Wonder for the upset.
chickenhead
10-09-2007, 01:38 PM
YES! I love that you have stepped up to do battle with the lock-ness monster. I wish more guys had been doing that all along, it would have been fun.
DeanT
10-09-2007, 01:55 PM
Carson Camp is a lock.

Why?

I have been doing some number crunching.

SUF Race 05
8$$$ - CARSONCAMP(Corina)(Cliff Smith)(Punchy)(BrisPick)(BrisUltraPP)
5 - PFABSOLUT
1 - TIMEJET
3 - THELIONCLYDE

When Chick picks a LOD, and Whobet has more than two dollar signs on the pick, this is pure magic. Running the possibilities thru my trusty Tandy computer with an extremely complex algorythm, I have the following extrapolated: Bets 114,321. Wins 114,320.

The only loss comes when one horse had the addition of front wraps - and he came second by a short nose.

So in my long winded way, I believe that Carson camp will win, unless he adds front wraps. If you want to cover all bases, the bet is to place.

Good luck Chick, and Whobet. I am interested to see if my comingled LOD and Chick angle (I like to call it LODWHO) works to mastery today :)
chickenhead
10-09-2007, 02:05 PM
:lol:
MakinItHappen
10-09-2007, 02:26 PM
We blindly plunge! No questions asked! In the Chicken We Trust!

http://media.qweki.com/view_video.php?viewkey=e9d56cb3628b6af8c279

Best of Luck Everyone!

MakinItHappen
judd
10-09-2007, 02:47 PM
:sleeping: now i can take that cruise
DeanT
10-09-2007, 02:53 PM
The Score is in:

WHOCHICKLOD (tm) 1, Fruitless no talent handicappers 0

:D

Congrats on going out on a winning note Chick. These are harder than they look, and I think you did a hell of a job.
chickenhead
10-09-2007, 03:10 PM
Congrats on going out on a winning note Chick.

Unfortunately, this is only #49. I figured 50 was necessary as a minimum, so our next day will be our last. Watch I'll find 14 plays tomorrow and they'll all lose.


These are harder than they look.

I couldn't agree with you more. I've got nothing but respect for anyone that makes money on these types (someone must, right?). You know it's really pretty easy to bet on longshots...drop 0.5 or 1% of your bank on a 20-1 shot, he runs up the track, no big deal, to be expected, next. It's a whole different story dropping 10% of bank on some 3/5 shot thats 0-15 lifetime.
xtb
10-09-2007, 03:29 PM
WHOCHICKLOD (tm) 1, Fruitless no talent handicappers 0



I've seen 2nd race after being gelded with increasing pace figure horses come out of nowhere and pay huge. At 41:1 it was worth a shot.
DeanT
10-09-2007, 03:37 PM
I've seen 2nd race after being gelded with increasing pace number horses come out of nowhere and pay huge. At 41:1 it was worth a shot.
Please don't take my post as a shot at you, XTB. It was not intended. I was having a little fun at this LOD stuff. Nice try. I would have bet something similar as you if I played this race, more than likely.

This is a great test CH. I like the thought. I have been searching for "true faves" for some time, in all pools, all classes, harness and T-bred. I think I will try greyhounds next, lol. It is very, very difficult with high rakes, and I have been follwoing your plays for awhile to see how you did. We should have all joined in I think. If you do another test, I might just do that.

Anyhow, fun to follow and I think solid ROI + chalk is still a great mystery to me, altho you definitely have some solid filters for your plays, so thumbs up. I think you are a heck of a lot closer than most who have tried.
MakinItHappen
10-09-2007, 03:51 PM
Just a brief note on today's Bridgejumping #'s for Carson Camp:

Win $16,134 of $28,089 57%
Place $5,885 of $10,820 54%
Show $12,252 of $15,178 81%

So, what % of the various pool's do we feel that a horse must garner to qualify as a "brigdejump". Not sure if we qualified today :confused:. Show pool perhaps?

Well Done Chick!:ThmbUp: Best of Luck in The LUCKY LAST!

MakinItHappen
xtb
10-09-2007, 04:07 PM
No problem Dean, it's all in good fun. (That darn Chicken!)