10-8-07 Oaktree Carryover $567,547.18

[MakinItHappen]

Very Juicy Carryover! Even for those of us who do not not intend to take a serious run at it and play a Big Ticket, I still think it makes sense to invest a few dollars and put in 1 or more small tickets and give yourself a chance at a Big Payday! :jump:

Please use this thread to post your thoughts and advice on taking a shot at this Pick 6. Also, feel free to post your views on taking a shot at Pick 6's such as this in general. If you have strong views on a race in this sequence or a specific horse please post that here as well. Everyone is welcome to post "fantasy tickets" as well, just to have a little fun or just to see what might have been.

How big do you think this pool will utimately become tomorrow? $1.5 Million? $2 million? Feel free to take a stab at that, as well!

As for myself, I will probably play 2 or 3 small tickets just to give myself a shot at a once in a lifetime score. Not likely to hit, but you sure as hell can't hit if you don't play! I will try to post some thoughts, information, observations, etc. and will probably post a "fantasy ticket" just for sheetz n' giggles and encourage others to do so, as well!

Look forward to hearing from others!

Best of Luck Everyone!:ThmbUp:

MakinItHappen

[MakinItHappen]

A mere 604,800 possible combinations for today's Pick 6 at Oak. Well, it is nice to know that we could put a halt to the handicapping and guarentee ourselves a winner by ponying up a mere $1,209,600. :faint:

Nah, better keep capping!

Best of Luck To Everyone Today!

MakinItHappen

[MakinItHappen]

As a first cut, how about we throw out all horses with a ML of greater than 8-1?

If we do this, we trim our ticket down from $1,209,600 to $74,088. A ticket such as this would have hit yesterday for a COOL $.5 MILLION and would have only cost $12,096. Damn, wish I could go back in time. :lol: The off odds parlay calculation on yesterday's winners was $16,472. Kind of surprising that it was not hit, actually.

The other theme I glean from the above comparison is that today's card is more contentious and therefore likely more difficult to hit than yesterday's. Oh boy!

Of course, if we see a horse we love at odds of greater than ML 8-1 we could always put him back in, but since we got a lot more trimming to do, they gotta go for now! Does anybody see any horses they love in today's sequence with a ML of greater than 8-1? Any BIG ML errors? It is very likely that if we get two winners with ML's greater than 8-1 (unless there is an obvious ML error included) we will have another carryover, so we won't concern ourselves too much with that.

Best of Luck Everyone!

MakinItHappen

[MakinItHappen]

Hit a bump in the road! Had to run out and rescue a buddy who was having car problems. A couple hrs of capping time out the window. Good news is that the buddy is a National Handicapping Tournament finalist and has taken down a six-figure Oaktree Pick 6 in the past. He is now going to have to ditch work for the afternoon and he is currently on the case! Perhaps it is fate or something. Hopefully, this will make up for the lost time...lol!

Bad news is that he told me that he took a look at the card last night and thought it looked impossible, so was going to pass today. :(

Best of Luck To All Who Take a Stab Today!

MakinItHappen

[MakinItHappen]

Have narrowed my plays to the following horses and will just split them up into two $64 tickets and hope for the best!

R4 2,4,5,6
R5 2,4,5,7
R6 1,5,8
R7 3,4,7
R8 1,3,10
R9 4,8,9,11

Best of Luck Today Everyone!

MakinItHappen

[ALL CIRCUITS GO]

my plays for a very small ticket, singles most of the way, just for fun..

4 / 2,5 / 10 / 3 / 3 / 9,12

best of luck

[MakinItHappen]

Smart and fun way to play!

Pool is at $2.3 Million and Growing!

Best of Luck, ACG and Everyone!

MakinItHappen

[MakinItHappen]

The ML Fav (7-2) and Off Odds Co-Fav (5-2) Coastal Eddy wins in 1:09.42 for the 6 Fur. He stalked the 5 early on and made his move on the turn and pulled away in the stretch. The 3 horse, Storm Brave, who was DQ'd from 2nd and placed 5th was closing like some sort of Wild Thing in the stretch. May want to keep an eye on this guy! Perhaps he is a "hidden horse".

I have one ticket still alive and it looks like this:

4,6/4,7/5,8/4,7/3/9,8

My other ticket looked like this:

2,5/2,5/1,5/3/1,10/4,11

Probably not the smartest way to play those horses, but it was all about getting my "name in the hat" and hoping for some racing luck! Would have cost WAY TOO MUCH to play all the horses I liked! Rather than agonize over further cuts, I just decided to divide them up and hope for the best!

Best of Luck, ACG and Everyone!

MakinItHappen

[MakinItHappen]

#4 was sent off as the 3rd favorite and ran near the back of the pack early. He began to pick-up horses heading into the turn and Nakatani some how found room for him to squirt through on the rail and that made all the difference.

HeatSeeker paid $8.40, finishing the 7 Fur in 1:20.9 and the Double paid $23.20.

Still haven't heard what the P6 pool finished at but it must have been somewhere in the $2.5 Million range.

Best of Luck Everyone!

MakinItHappen

[DeanT]

Nice try on the 8 in the sixth. That would have gotten you pretty excited.

I was out in leg one with my teeny ticket.

[ALL CIRCUITS GO]

I'm out for today... not even gonna catch 5,, but I'm happy that I had contenders, if not winners..

Good luck to all

[MakinItHappen]

Rushen Heat and Corey Nakatani, the ML 9-2 2nd choice got no respect from me or the rest of the betting public and was sent off at an unsupportive 10-1 6th choice. (Note to Formula - are you sure the betting public sets a near perfect line? We better check that a little closer.) She showed good early stalking speed and made it hold up to win by a half a length over my sorely needed 8 horse, Pink Polka Dots. Don't want to sound like sour grapes (but I will anyway), the 8 looked like she had Rushen Heat measured as they cornered for home, however she did not handle the turn well (ie-blew it) and gave up 3+ lengths by the time she got straightened out. That was the difference in the end, IMO. Oh boy, another "hidden horse", perhaps, not exactly what I was looking for in that race... :lol:

Rushen Heat finished the Mile on Turf in 1:35.09.

Best of Luck, Everyone!

MakinItHappen

[MakinItHappen]

He won impressively. Ran mid-pack early, made a great move on the turn and pulled away down the stretch. I knew this horse was a contender but he didn't make the cut for me... WHOOPS! Finished 7 Fur in 1:22.4 and paid $16.00.

His last race was not impressive at Del Mar, but just heard the trainer say that he had a virus the week before that race and wasn't himself... timely information as always... :lol: Nice looking 2 year old, guess we will see him in the Cal Cup. The horses I needed to stay alive for 5 of 6 ran 2nd and 3rd, of course.

Best of Luck Everyone!

MakinItHappen

[MakinItHappen]

Morning Line 2nd choice sent off as 4th choice. Paid $13.40 and completed the Mile on Turf in 1:35.08

Shaping up to be a pretty nice payday for some lucky cappers! Possible payoffs range from $106k (#11) to $1.6 Million (5 & 7). Will Carryover if 2,6 or 10 wins!

Best of Luck Everyone!

MakinItHappen

[whobet]

9th race - Oak Tree At Santa Anita - October 08, 2007
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
11 Eden Simone 4.80 3.40 3.40
4 O Bee Naki 7.60 6.40
12 Ghostly Girl 13.80


$2 Daily Double 1-11 37.80
$1 Exacta 11-4 18.40
$1 Superfecta 11-4-12-7 5,542.60
$1 Trifecta 11-4-12 591.80
$1 Pick 3 8-1-11 (3 correct) 237.50
$1 Pick 4 9-8-1-11 (4 correct) 1,909.60
$1 Pick 5 4-9-8-1-11 (5 correct) 6,401.40
$2 Pick 6 4-4-9-8-1-11 (5 correct) 674.80
$2 Pick 6 4-4-9-8-1-11 (6 correct) 106,143.80
$1 Place Pick All 8 OF 9 (8 correct) 2,571.80

[MakinItHappen]

Thank You Very Much, WhoBet, for posting those results!

Appreciate it! Got sidetracked with Dinner and hadn't made it back here to wrap-up!

Best of Luck To You!

MakinItHappen