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andicap
01-04-2003, 07:49 AM
I need to find the following info about a handful of horses.

1. How did they do in the next two races after 8/11/02 at the Spa.

2. What date, surface and distance they ran on in those races.

3. If they won or placed, their odds.

1. Polish Miner
2. Green Fee
3. Getition
4. Better Talk Now
5. El Providential
6. Sumitas

Testing a track bias/modeling theory with my handicapping method.

Thank you.

Suff
01-04-2003, 08:58 AM
POLISH MINER-retired

He's by Danzig out of a full sister to Seeking The Gold. He'll stand for $3500 in 2003. He won 4 of 29 starts and earned $335,646 racing until the age of 5. He's Gr 2 and 3 placed

PurplePower
01-04-2003, 09:30 AM
Green Fee won Kelso ran fifth in BC mile and is scheduled to run in Col Bradley at FG tomorrow (Sunday, Jan 5th)

http://www.drf.com/members/web_news.generate_article_html?p_news_head=41219&p_arc=1

http://www.drf.com/members/web_news.generate_article_html?p_news_head=43207&p_arc=1


Sumitas ran fifth in the fifth at Santa Anita on Dec. 31st. You can check results and back track from there.

Better Talk Now ran in Saranac on Labor Day at Saratoga. Most recently he was 8th in Woodchopper at FG on Dec. 29th.

http://www.drf.com/members/web_news.generate_article_html?p_news_head=43180&p_arc=1

I searched news archives at DRF for that info. Put them on your stable mail and you can at least get a reference point to find pp's for those still running.

GameTheory
01-04-2003, 11:54 AM
As of Dec-31 (inlcuding the spa race):



Date Trk Dis Surf Class Fsize Pos/Bl Fractions (estimated - this horse) Odds

POLISH MINER
2002/08/11 SAR 8.5f T ALW 58k nw1rt9mx 10 7-11.8 8-12 6-5.15 3-4.65 3-1.75 24.15 47.11 70.15 93.79 99.47 7.1
2002/09/06 BEL 8f T ALW 58k nw2$rtyx 9 4-1.5 6-3.15 8-3.1 5-3.85 23.39 46.6 70.27 94.7 7.1
2002/10/12 LRL 9f D STK 150k 5 2-1 2-1 2-0.15 2-0.5 2-1 24.35 48.34 72.39 96.73 109.17 1.4
2002/11/02 AQU 9f T STK-G2 150k 9 6-4.65 6-4.15 6-3.15 7-3.95 3-2.2 25.62 51.69 76.4 101.25 112.91 4.9
2002/11/23 AQU 11f D STK-G3 150k 6 2-0.5 2-0.15 2-0.5 1-0.15 2-7 4-10 24.55 47.83 72.42 97.36 123.47 136.57 14.4


GREEN FEE
2002/08/11 SAR 8.5f T ALW 58k nw1rt9mx 10 9-16.3 9-14.5 8-7.15 6-5.8 4-3.5 24.86 47.51 70.49 93.98 99.77 5
2002/09/06 BEL 8f T ALW 58k nw2$rtyx 9 8-6.15 8-7.15 7-2.1 2-2 24.15 47.24 70.11 94.38 7.8
2002/10/05 BEL 8f T STK-G2 350k 7 7-12.45 7-6.15 5-1.95 1-0.5 24.89 46.26 69.62 93.83 9.4
2002/10/26 AP 8f T STK-G1 1000k 14 13-8.6 12-5.75 12-5.75 7-4.15 5-3.31 25.3 49.68 73.94 85.8 97.47 45


GETITON
2002/08/11 SAR 8f t ALW 48k nw2l 10 2-2 1-0.5 1-0.5 3-1.31 24.01 47.19 71.89 95.95 7.5
2002/11/05 AQU 8.5f T ALW 48k nw1x 10 1-2.5 1-1.5 2-0.5 7-4.45 7-8.25 23.84 48.06 73.84 100.69 108.13 5.6


BETTER TALK NOW
2002/08/11 SAR 8f t ALW 48k nw2l 10 8-12.5 8-7.95 8-2.1 8-1.88 25.75 48.5 72.25 96.04 1.15
2002/09/02 SAR 9.5f T STK-G3 100k 9 8-4.15 8-4.3 8-4.8 7-5.5 6-5.1 25.1 50.52 74 98.82 116.13 13
2002/10/01 DEL 9f T ALW 43k nw1x 9 6-5.5 6-5.65 6-3.3 1-0.5 1-3.75 27.36 52.36 75.94 100.54 112.38 0.9
2002/11/02 AQU 9f T ALW 50k nw2x 10 8-4.3 6-2.65 5-2.65 1-1.5 1-3.25 25.12 50.13 75.53 100.27 112.08 4.4
2002/12/28 FG 8.5f T STK 100k 11 6-5.5 2-0.15 2-0.15 1-0.15 8-6.1 25.13 49.2 73.82 98.98 106.32 1.2


EL PROVIDENTIAL
2002/08/11 SAR 8f t ALW 48k nw2l 10 9-16 9-12.45 9-3.1 6-1.67 26.34 49.24 72.43 96.01 7.4
2002/11/30 FG 8f D ALW 30k nw1x 7 4-5.5 4-4.5 4-3.5 4-14 24.61 48.05 72.78 100.86 3


SUMITAS (GER)
2002/08/11 SAR 8.5f T ALW 58k nw1rt9mx 10 3-8.5 3-7 3-3 4-5.15 7-5.2 23.64 46.31 69.79 93.88 100.07 4.1
2002/12/31 SA 8f T ALW 70k nw1$ryx 10 4-2.5 4-2.5 5-2.3 3-3.5 3-2.56 24.2 48.19 72.2 84.04 96.44 2.4

Tom
01-04-2003, 12:06 PM
Polish Miner -
10/12/02 Lrl 9th $50K Stakes -2nd as favorite 1.40-1 paid $3.00
11/02/02 AQU 9th GR2 Knickerbocker 3rd at 2.30-1

El Providential -
unplaced at FG 11/30/02 NW1 Alw at 3.00-1 (wet fast)

Better Talk Now
Sar 9/2/02 Gr3 Saranac Turf, 1m3/16 6th at 13.00-1
Aqu 11/2/02 NW2 Alw 9 furl Turf - won at 4.40-1 paid 10.80 - 5.30

Green Fee
10/5/02 Bel Gr2 Kelso, Turf 1mi won at 9.40-1 paid 20.80 5.40
unplaced in BC Turf

andicap
01-04-2003, 05:54 PM
Thanks, with Green Fee's $20 win, that might stick it into the profit column if I follow each horse twice. That's 12 bets -- $24, if I'm not betting horses off a layoff.

My track bias modelling using my current method officially shows promise and is worth pursusing.

Here's what I'm doing: I have three stats I use: HE, AP and EEE. All based on pace figures. On that particular day EEE was killing them on the turf so the horses that were strong in HE theoretically would do better when that formula returned to its normal prominence. I wouldn't bet these horses back as chalk since that's not style (unless I key them with a longer odds horse I like). And I'd really want decent odds if they were rising in class.

Thanks for all of your help.