Suff
01-04-2003, 06:56 AM
race 1
Including the AE's we have 8 firsters going in here. Years ago I used to be afraid of these races. But over time as I have gotten better at Pedigree, and Trainer patterns. I've made some nice scores on one simple fact. The general Public, hates to bet firsters. Thats not as true in New york however.
#1 Affliction (8-1) Gary Contessa's 108 wins this year have included 8 Firsters. He's known as a good firster type of trainer. He's had 62 firsters start this year. Thats a decent 13% clip . This Horse debuts with Blinkers, and draws a low % jockey. Works are dull to very dull. Think this is another that's in for the experience and we'll eventually see routing
#2 Jennifer Leigh is below average with First starters in New york.. however, she is head and shoulders the best on 2nd second starters.FLIPS CORNER(10-1) has some very nice pedigree , but probabaly for routing. Does draw nicely down inside. But works are slow.. He's from a first crop , so we don;t have any siblings that have gone out yet to determine what exactly this sire/dam tandem will produce.. Deputy Minister is a cousin to this horse however, and there are some POWER winners on both side of Mom's and Dad's family .Would'nt shock me... but it would surprise me for this one to WIN at first asking.
#3 Loughran (20-1)..... This one has something I personally like to see when betting Firsters. His Mom has already dropped a Brother that has Finished 2nd at Three.(her only other foal) Has low % connections. Has some works at Monmouth that I could build off. Draws nicely. They did ship him in, intime to work him locally, which is a another sign I like to see. Although the work was slow. There could be sound reasons for that. In addition the work was the 29Th of Dec. Tracks been a MESS. Although listed fast that day. I don't believe it. I'm not dismissing and will give a look in the paddock, track. and, thier not gonna bet this one at all....which is another thing that I like to see... his 4f works at NJ.. match up with a couple of these.
#4 Pert Reply (3-1) There are three starters going Today that Debut'd in the spring or up at the SPA, and took the rest of the summer and fall off. Here's one of them. I suppose on the "Late Foal" angle and the 4th place start. You could make a case this horse has every right to improve. I am familiar with two of the horses that finished ahead of him that day. And they both are terrible and have done nothing since. Got no action in his debut (43-1) he drew Rojas.. and today he gets a slight step up in Lopez. Things to like.. But I'm not convinced he's a race horse just yet.. and at anything below 5-1 its a High risk..low return bet for me. Trainer does'nt have a heck of alot of horses, but still... he's only sat TWO for more than 60 days. So I'm not convinced it was simply THE PLAN to sit the horse all summer. His 12/11 work is inspiring to a degree. But others here have steadily worked the same...so why would I bet the 2-1, when I can get a 10-1 with the same "Promise" Just based on that fact he ran ONE race and finished 4th.. he's gonna be overbet... don;t be hooked...some of that money is "LOST" money that is simply following other dollars into a black hole.
#5 Brave guy.. has a couple of angles to work.with. His last looks better than it really is,, as that was a very slow race.. and this group looks to have a few talented horses. He is a late foal, who could improve.. but he'd need to be a whole new animal, and that does happen... but not seeing it here today with this guy. Candlin and whittaker are Nowhere.
#6 Maybe because Luzzi was up, the bet him to 19-1 in a 12 horse field in his debut.. and he was nowhere. Could improve.. curiously draws Mckee.... Nothing here, beyond that, makes him a contender
#7 JOL (8-1) Lots to like about this firster.. has many things going for it. Pedigree, trainer, post. Jockey isn't winning alot and that hurts a lil. Daddy was a Grade 3 winner at TWO. so they can run right away. Mommy's Dropped 3 Brothers that have won already. Work of 12/18 jumps out. 4f in 48.. from the gate. Worthy.
#8 Regal Pro Couple of weeks ago we banged around Ny Puddles.. Hurrikane was convinced horse could'nt win because of DENNIS CARR. Well,, here's your 5-2 Morning line favorite with an 0-28 Dennis Carr in the irons. And if you need two more reasons NOT to bet the horse... The beyer is low for the perfomance and the pace looks uncontested. The top three were 15 clear of the other nine horses. he gets outside here.. and I think the 11 may clear him for the lead. Trainer has started 10 horses this year. He's the breeder and the owner. Hard to argue with a 49.2 with the dogs out however. He's on the bubble as a late foal too. Could be a race horse in the making. Hard to come down on either side with this one.
#9 Glory be to Winloc (8-1) 3rd by a length in a 12 horse field on Turf, tells me the horse is'nt afraid to run through or around horses. Wether he can run on dirt, going 6 furlongs is the question. And based on his works on the belmont main.. I'm inclined to say yes, he can. The horse can run... I'm concerned he may need more running room than this however. If the track is muddy/good,, I'm thinking he may close into these. Note the finishing time on his debut 57.4 going 5Furlongs. Pretty darn fast for NY. 60 beyer is by far the best of the MAIN entrants.
#10 7-7 Adam (20-1) Seems well intended. With a series of works. Couple from the gate. 12/24 work insirpires. Not enough information to make an educated hunch. I'll watch his first.
#11.My Authority (20-1) Maybe its me.. does'nt his last race look like he should 3-1 and Pert should be 20-1? Its was a Pretty fast race for this division 111.3. The top two that day are serious horses. Comment says he ran off in Post parade. Showed much improved early speed that day . They went 5f in 58.2 that day. Adds blinkers for "Nowhere connections". But the horses run and the connections watch. So he's worth a look in my mind
#12 Stars Align(10-1) All kinds of great pedigree to run big here and in the future. Work of 12/30 tells me he's tuned. Hung out a lil here from the 12 hole. Kelly is 0 for 15 with firsters. and 3% in this division from 102 starters. I like the horse but I hate the stats. Passing probably
Horse I will use is the NINE... I'll look at the Paddock and post parade for my alternates... Leaning at the 7 and 11.
BTW.. Notice I'm up at 7:00 am handicapping races. My work alarm clock went off at 4:15Am.. and I got up anyway. been looking at races since 5:00 am. races 6-9 at Ny Mainly.
Including the AE's we have 8 firsters going in here. Years ago I used to be afraid of these races. But over time as I have gotten better at Pedigree, and Trainer patterns. I've made some nice scores on one simple fact. The general Public, hates to bet firsters. Thats not as true in New york however.
#1 Affliction (8-1) Gary Contessa's 108 wins this year have included 8 Firsters. He's known as a good firster type of trainer. He's had 62 firsters start this year. Thats a decent 13% clip . This Horse debuts with Blinkers, and draws a low % jockey. Works are dull to very dull. Think this is another that's in for the experience and we'll eventually see routing
#2 Jennifer Leigh is below average with First starters in New york.. however, she is head and shoulders the best on 2nd second starters.FLIPS CORNER(10-1) has some very nice pedigree , but probabaly for routing. Does draw nicely down inside. But works are slow.. He's from a first crop , so we don;t have any siblings that have gone out yet to determine what exactly this sire/dam tandem will produce.. Deputy Minister is a cousin to this horse however, and there are some POWER winners on both side of Mom's and Dad's family .Would'nt shock me... but it would surprise me for this one to WIN at first asking.
#3 Loughran (20-1)..... This one has something I personally like to see when betting Firsters. His Mom has already dropped a Brother that has Finished 2nd at Three.(her only other foal) Has low % connections. Has some works at Monmouth that I could build off. Draws nicely. They did ship him in, intime to work him locally, which is a another sign I like to see. Although the work was slow. There could be sound reasons for that. In addition the work was the 29Th of Dec. Tracks been a MESS. Although listed fast that day. I don't believe it. I'm not dismissing and will give a look in the paddock, track. and, thier not gonna bet this one at all....which is another thing that I like to see... his 4f works at NJ.. match up with a couple of these.
#4 Pert Reply (3-1) There are three starters going Today that Debut'd in the spring or up at the SPA, and took the rest of the summer and fall off. Here's one of them. I suppose on the "Late Foal" angle and the 4th place start. You could make a case this horse has every right to improve. I am familiar with two of the horses that finished ahead of him that day. And they both are terrible and have done nothing since. Got no action in his debut (43-1) he drew Rojas.. and today he gets a slight step up in Lopez. Things to like.. But I'm not convinced he's a race horse just yet.. and at anything below 5-1 its a High risk..low return bet for me. Trainer does'nt have a heck of alot of horses, but still... he's only sat TWO for more than 60 days. So I'm not convinced it was simply THE PLAN to sit the horse all summer. His 12/11 work is inspiring to a degree. But others here have steadily worked the same...so why would I bet the 2-1, when I can get a 10-1 with the same "Promise" Just based on that fact he ran ONE race and finished 4th.. he's gonna be overbet... don;t be hooked...some of that money is "LOST" money that is simply following other dollars into a black hole.
#5 Brave guy.. has a couple of angles to work.with. His last looks better than it really is,, as that was a very slow race.. and this group looks to have a few talented horses. He is a late foal, who could improve.. but he'd need to be a whole new animal, and that does happen... but not seeing it here today with this guy. Candlin and whittaker are Nowhere.
#6 Maybe because Luzzi was up, the bet him to 19-1 in a 12 horse field in his debut.. and he was nowhere. Could improve.. curiously draws Mckee.... Nothing here, beyond that, makes him a contender
#7 JOL (8-1) Lots to like about this firster.. has many things going for it. Pedigree, trainer, post. Jockey isn't winning alot and that hurts a lil. Daddy was a Grade 3 winner at TWO. so they can run right away. Mommy's Dropped 3 Brothers that have won already. Work of 12/18 jumps out. 4f in 48.. from the gate. Worthy.
#8 Regal Pro Couple of weeks ago we banged around Ny Puddles.. Hurrikane was convinced horse could'nt win because of DENNIS CARR. Well,, here's your 5-2 Morning line favorite with an 0-28 Dennis Carr in the irons. And if you need two more reasons NOT to bet the horse... The beyer is low for the perfomance and the pace looks uncontested. The top three were 15 clear of the other nine horses. he gets outside here.. and I think the 11 may clear him for the lead. Trainer has started 10 horses this year. He's the breeder and the owner. Hard to argue with a 49.2 with the dogs out however. He's on the bubble as a late foal too. Could be a race horse in the making. Hard to come down on either side with this one.
#9 Glory be to Winloc (8-1) 3rd by a length in a 12 horse field on Turf, tells me the horse is'nt afraid to run through or around horses. Wether he can run on dirt, going 6 furlongs is the question. And based on his works on the belmont main.. I'm inclined to say yes, he can. The horse can run... I'm concerned he may need more running room than this however. If the track is muddy/good,, I'm thinking he may close into these. Note the finishing time on his debut 57.4 going 5Furlongs. Pretty darn fast for NY. 60 beyer is by far the best of the MAIN entrants.
#10 7-7 Adam (20-1) Seems well intended. With a series of works. Couple from the gate. 12/24 work insirpires. Not enough information to make an educated hunch. I'll watch his first.
#11.My Authority (20-1) Maybe its me.. does'nt his last race look like he should 3-1 and Pert should be 20-1? Its was a Pretty fast race for this division 111.3. The top two that day are serious horses. Comment says he ran off in Post parade. Showed much improved early speed that day . They went 5f in 58.2 that day. Adds blinkers for "Nowhere connections". But the horses run and the connections watch. So he's worth a look in my mind
#12 Stars Align(10-1) All kinds of great pedigree to run big here and in the future. Work of 12/30 tells me he's tuned. Hung out a lil here from the 12 hole. Kelly is 0 for 15 with firsters. and 3% in this division from 102 starters. I like the horse but I hate the stats. Passing probably
Horse I will use is the NINE... I'll look at the Paddock and post parade for my alternates... Leaning at the 7 and 11.
BTW.. Notice I'm up at 7:00 am handicapping races. My work alarm clock went off at 4:15Am.. and I got up anyway. been looking at races since 5:00 am. races 6-9 at Ny Mainly.