Surface Handicapping

[nobeyerspls]

A surface handicapper believes that horses are bred for a particular surface just as their pedigree might predict distance preference. It's principles are most effective with young horses trying their preferred surface for the first time. They can be identified, sometimes at very high odds through breeding, workouts, and, in an opposite way, through past performance. Here are some of the particulars:
1. The key is a thorough understanding of turf breeding and the assumption here is that most of you are well versed in it. In general a horse that performs well on an off track (mudddy/sloppy) will not like the turf. The same is true in an opposite way for turf horses.
2. Breeding will reveal surface tendencies that I label positive, neutral and negative. Most turf horses are turf positive, dirt(fast) neutral, and mud/slop negative. There are exceptions and these are identified sire by sire. Dynaformers are turf positive but not negative on any surface. Cozzene's are turf positive and negative on all others.
3. The broodmare sire is more important than the male line and sufficient to identify a turf horse.
4. Horses have a dirt preference from track to track which created the phrase "horses for courses".
5. The dirt surface at any track will play differently based on harrow depth. Knowing if they changed it on the morning of a race day will tell you of a bias before others pick it up from the races.
6. Polytrack will vary due to surface temperature and component content and thus all polytracks are not the same.
7. Horses can benefit from training on one surface and running on another. Payson is the obvious example but Calder is not generally known. Due to its holding nature, horses in training at Calder will carry their speed better at Gulfstream. Further, turf horses given a little time off to train on the Calder dirt surface will outrun their odds when returning to the Gulfstream turf.
8. Poor performance on polytrack can mask a solid dirt runner. Horses shipping from Woodbine have demonstrated this and the new dynamic between Keeneland and Churchill provides further confirmation.
9. Widely varied performance from one track to another is not always about surface. It's sometimes about shipping as that can be a stressful event for some horses.
10. A drying out track is the most difficult to handicap as it is often a first time event for most of the entrants.

Some examples of the application of surface handicapping:

A. A young horse is trying the grass for the first time and it's turf breeding is borderline. A poor effort on a sloppy track in the past performances says that it will like the turf.
B. A maiden with some turf breeding is working well on the dirt and entered in a sprint race on that surface. The track comes up sloppy on race day and the horse shows some speed early and then fades to the rear. A subsequent good work on a fast track makes this one a solid play on any dry surface next time out.
C. A maiden with three terrible races on polytrack has been working well on the dirt traing track. A move to a regular dirt track can produce a win at high odds.

I tried to keep this short with some difficulty. If you have other insights relating to surface please include them in a reply.

[john del riccio]

1. The key is a thorough understanding of turf breeding and the assumption here is that most of you are well versed in it. In general a horse that performs well on an off track (mudddy/sloppy) will not like the turf. The same is true in an opposite way for turf horses.


NBP,

I have first hand experience that indicates this isn't accurate. Why do you say this ? My sample size is obviously not very large but its certainly not been the case with several horses that I have had.

John

[nobeyerspls]

NBP,

I have first hand experience that indicates this isn't accurate. Why do you say this ? My sample size is obviously not very large but its certainly not been the case with several horses that I have had.

John

Horses entered for main track only and multiple scratches when a race comes off the turf are examples of surface preference as addressed by owners and trainers. A few handle both surfaces and the tendency is a sire by sire thing. A young Canadian filly named Belle Geste ran poorly in dirt claiming races and then became a stakes performer on the grass, eventually beating males on that surface. Cigar was a very different runner when moved from grass to dirt.
I was present at Woodbine when Secretariat won his last race on a soft turf course. Horses like that can run on marshmallows or broken glass. Anecdotal examples do not prove much but relying on surface preference through breeding has served me well.

[bellsbendboy]

I think NBP that what the theme of your post is intended for, is to say; " I cash on longshots that have changed surfaces" and " here is what I look for" with that I have no issue. Cappers have long viewed changes with interest.

My personal long term observations indicate that your assumption that the broodmare sire exerts more influence on surface preference than the sire is inaccurate. I feel it is at least 75% sire if not more.

Also you lump all off tracks together. Although the trackman responsible for labeling the track surface is often inaccurate, or late to change, sloppy is TOTALLY different from muddy. A more defined and therefore more accurate track statistic is whether the track has been sealed. Many horses relish a sloppy surface but do not act if the track is muddy. Very few (maybe two or three percent) handle a sealed surface well. Confirmation, foot size and the horses action, which are all hereditary, are largely responsible in determining surface preference, and ALL horses prefer one over the other. I agree with John in that your statement is too broad here and contains conclusions that cannot be verified.

I posted at another forum how a track changes at www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8877 or you could go there and do a search under bellsbendboy. It is titled "Understanding track bias" or something similar. If you bet dirt tracks and do not understand how the track is manicured it is a must read, I humbly but confidently opine. Unfortunately the discussion went nowhere after one of the forums' ubiquitous attack dogs immediately posted, as he is prone to do, that my game is lacking because I do not bet enough money!

Lastly many horses have "soft" feet and these types enjoy surfaces that are easier on the concussion that occurs when the hoof hits the ground. I agree that this topic is difficult to keep to a short post but would be interested in more feedback. BBB

[Tom]

I think the presence of a few poly lines right there on the top of a horse's PPs is a great wrinkle. Good dirt 4 back, recent questions, all build odds.

This looks like it could be a good thread..........

[nobeyerspls]

I think NBP that what the theme of your post is intended for, is to say; " I cash on longshots that have changed surfaces" and " here is what I look for" with that I have no issue. Cappers have long viewed changes with interest.


The above is a fair statement but I stand by the broodmare sire influence. Of course, top and bottom in the pedigree is preferred and a second generation influence in the male line does not hurt. As to hoof structure determining turf preference, I brought that up to my trainer once telling him that wide hooves afford better purchase on a grass surface and small ones go in and out of the mud easily. He asked if the few horses that won on both surfaces changed their feet from race to race.
I did not intend to lump all tracks together and your point about differences in designating muddy/sloppy is valid. Further, some tracks with a high percentage of sand will be faster when wet and others will favor the crown of the track when muddy. I did not differentiate between mud and slop for offtrack runners and that was an error. Sloppy tracks flatter speed and horses that perform well on that surface will usually quit when the mud is deep. I left tracks labeled "good" out on purpose because they do not show up that much and they seem to be fair to all runners except perhaps to the need to lead types.

[Robert Fischer]

Great thread

Everyone keep contributing



I don't mind sharing a couple powerful surface angles that I use:


Sloppy tracks(seem to mostly be sealed) - I anticipate the surface to be speed favoring. If it is raining all day and will be a mess, I find the gate speed and the first 2 fraction speed of the 1st and 2nd Races. I watch without wagering. If it is in fact speed favoring, I look to the quickest gate horses and and the quickest E1 E2 horses who have shown past form on the slop. In the 5 horse slop-fields these guys often seem to be 2nd choices and can be wheeled over the other 3-4 contenders for a profit.


Polytrack - the old angle(the Chatain angle) and still the first thing to look at is a good popular horse who hasn't run on polytrack, and he shows his energy in the E1 E2 portions of the race, and he is running for 9 furlongs today.- you toss this favorite and you include a lot of horses and you collect a nice trifecta.
-Now that trainers finally know what the track is like the above angle is a little more rare because they place the wrong horse less often.
The new polytrack method-
at Keeneland or Arlington or Turfway or Woodbine - you look for a horse who has wired the field at least twice at 6 furlongs, or once at 6.5 furlongs in a race on Keeneland or Arlington poly. The horses with the pedigree/conformation/stamina to wire a sprint at Keeneland or Arlington dominate the cheaper ranks of the 4 above mentioned tracks and they often control races or win in lower stakes races at a price.

[46zilzal]

One cannot make blanket statements about the very subjective classifications of off going. No two tracks respond the same to moisture. It is only relative to the normality of the SAME track that are germane as comparisons to other venues are erroneous since their makeup and maintenance are not the same.

[Greyfox]

Are East Coast Turf surfaces the same as West Coast Turf surfaces or British surfaces?

[46zilzal]

Are East Coast Turf surfaces the same as West Coast Turf surfaces or British surfaces?
No where close. European courses are often undulating, drain poorly, often are uphill near the winning post, go both directions (R.H. and L.H.), rarely get too worn by days of racing, have multiple dirt paths across them, etc.. The make up of the grass is different too, just like in the variety of East/West coast courses, which, comparatively to Europe, are much closer.

Look at the "manicured" Del Mar or Santa Anita vs. Belmont or Arlington.

[Tom]

Here is an angle I use on turf - late in the year, or during a hot dry spell, when the turf is burnt,, short, and you see dust clouds, I pay a lot less attention to turf breeding and pay close attention to running styles as the late charge is sometimes a lot less effective. Again, not a blanket statement,
but observations that have proven useful before.

Another good turf angle is one identified by Jim Lehane a couple years back, where one particular day at Belmont was just bizzaro day - no late runners could get up in time and front speed was winning. That day produced at least 9 come back winners, at inflated odds, by closers hurt that crazy day.

[nobeyerspls]

Are East Coast Turf surfaces the same as West Coast Turf surfaces or British surfaces?

They are different but among US tracks Calder's turf course often presents a challenge to Northeast turf horses trying it for the first time.
Your question jogged a memory from years ago about a California horse shipping to Woodbine for a Sunday turf race. My wife and I were driving back from a Friday/Saturday Woodbine excursion and I had the form for Sunday while she drove. The heavily touted favorite was shipping from California and as I read about him a steady drizzle continued outside. Knowing that the course would be soft and he was used to a hard surface I looked for an entrant that could handle it. A French filly named River Memories had just run second to Theatrical in New York and was coming back from Paris to compete in this race. They booked Chris McCarron to ride her and flew him in from California. The odds were decent too.
So I went to Fort Erie the next day to play her and she won. With the win, place and a large exacta (favorite off the board) I cashed for just under $2k. Coincidently, I needed $1,800 to pay for my daughter's trip to France with her high school's junior french class. I told her to look up the filly when she got there and to buy her an apple. Sorry about the redboarding but the story is on topic and it had a happy ending.

[Capper Al]

Thanks for starting this thread after our previous discussion.

Lauren Stich, the DRF pedigree expert, claims the dam line gives class and the sire line gives distance ability.

[russowen77]

The usual quotes are sire gives distance and surface and dam gives class.

However, the AS is changing a lot of things.

We are seeing two unusal happenings. Sires with B through A- turf ratings are doing well early with AS. Secondly, the female line is having a greater impact here than normal. I am not talking about the dam sire now.

You know Storm Cat has been called the sire of sires. What he has actually been is the sire of great racehorses who are middlin sire. His spawn seem to be helped the most so far.

[Capper Al]

The usual quotes are sire gives distance and surface and dam gives class.

However, the AS is changing a lot of things.

We are seeing two unusal happenings. Sires with B through A- turf ratings are doing well early with AS. Secondly, the female line is having a greater impact here than normal. I am not talking about the dam sire now.

You know Storm Cat has been called the sire of sires. What he has actually been is the sire of great racehorses who are middlin sire. His spawn seem to be helped the most so far.

Sounds like a vocabulary all its own. I've stayed away from pedigree mainly because of not being able to speak the language, and it seems like a lot to learn. What book will introduce me to such terms as "Sires with B through A"? Do you use pedigree after a horse has had 3 starts with at least one at or about today's distance and surface?

[point given]

No not Household Finance Company , BUT, Horse For Course. There is only one horse that I remember well from Keeneland last spring. She wired the field on poly, when all others were floundering on the front. She is running on Saturday, and her name is .......... Mary Delaney . Maybe she was just in the zone last year at Keeneland, and I donot have her pps, to see if she is in form or not now. But she loved it there. Expect her to be kinda chalky. :eek:

[46zilzal]

Lauren Stich, the DRF pedigree expert, claims the dam line gives class and the sire line gives distance ability.
And she often is as close to finding that reality as the Fountain of Youth. You should hear her rants against Smarty Jones.

[nobeyerspls]

Sounds like a vocabulary all its own. I've stayed away from pedigree mainly because of not being able to speak the language, and it seems like a lot to learn. What book will introduce me to such terms as "Sires with B through A"? Do you use pedigree after a horse has had 3 starts with at least one at or about today's distance and surface?

You might want to subscribe to The Bloodhorse as it lists leading sires by Average Earnings Index and has stats for dirt and turf. A good next step would be to get a book or two about nicking, including Tesio's. He bred Nearco from a mare he acquired for little money. Lastly, you should attend the Keeneland September sales and look at the yearlings as they go through the sales ring. You'll be given sales books with four generation pedigrees so, with some knowledge of conformation, you can guess wich ones will sell for big bucks. While your watching the actual bidding though, do not scratch your nose or raise your hand to wave to a friend.

[russowen77]

Sounds like a vocabulary all its own. I've stayed away from pedigree mainly because of not being able to speak the language, and it seems like a lot to learn. What book will introduce me to such terms as "Sires with B through A"? Do you use pedigree after a horse has had 3 starts with at least one at or about today's distance and surface?
The ratings came from TSN Sire Stats but there is more than one. for example, AP Indy's tatings are C for firsters, A+ for mud, and B for Turf. The Average Wining Distance for his young is 8.3f. Over time the ratings get pretty decent.

I think pedigree is really helpful a few times. Maident races, off track, when the horse is trying something new, and the one I really not utilized enough is when the horse is trying a new distance. Combing the lines gives one a good indication if the horse can give the distance without getting distressed. I use pedigree after the animal has run under the race condition only when going a mile and a 1/4 or more. Even if they have won at the distance it can still be helpful imo if the horse is pushing its breeding envelope at that distance. Lets one know if the horse can get the distance easily or not and in a competitive race that can make a big difference.

The last LR race vs Curlin is a good example. LR caN win at that distance but his tank is getting very dry. Curlin has got a lot more. That doesn't mean he would win every effort at the distance but it is a lot easier on him to get it and he would have much less chance of bouncing. Pedigree can be helpful there because it can give you some insight into just what it took out of the horse.

Dam line study is a whole different ballgame and unless you want to work in the field I don't think it will be really worth all the effort it takes. Especially since once the horse has , we will use mud of example, run under those conditions a couple of times his/her reaction to it is much more telling than the breeding.

[russowen77]

You might want to subscribe to The Bloodhorse as it lists leading sires by Average Earnings Index and has stats for dirt and turf. A good next step would be to get a book or two about nicking, including Tesio's. He bred Nearco from a mare he acquired for little money. Lastly, you should attend the Keeneland September sales and look at the yearlings as they go through the sales ring. You'll be given sales books with four generation pedigrees so, with some knowledge of conformation, you can guess wich ones will sell for big bucks. While your watching the actual bidding though, do not scratch your nose or raise your hand to wave to a friend.

Good advice. I would only warn to watch out about Nicks. make sure the sample size is large enough to really matter. I see Nick claims a lot that will be based on less than 10 breedings and that is just not statistically relevant yet imo. There are major sales in Fl (ocala) and CA also if you are closer to those sites and want to see one work.

The Apex sire ratings are a good place to start imo. It breaks earnings down by age and also race ratings. They give a clearer picture imo.

[Tom]

Good example of surface influence tonight at the Medowlands - Don't Park Now. Fast track record, 1 for 8 - 12.5%. Wet track record, 3 of 6 - 50%.
Best Beyer on fast tracks is 81, on wet, it's 96. He shows 92 and a 96 in two recent sloppy wins. If it is sloppy, what paceline do you think best represents how he will run today?

[Capper Al]

Good example of surface influence tonight at the Medowlands - Don't Park Now. Fast track record, 1 for 8 - 12.5%. Wet track record, 3 of 6 - 50%.
Best Beyer on fast tracks is 81, on wet, it's 96. He shows 92 and a 96 in two recent sloppy wins. If it is sloppy, what paceline do you think best represents how he will run today?

Given what you say, I'd guess 94 if it's wet.

[Capper Al]

When does one jump off pedigree and just go by the PP lines? I do with 3 races in the PP lines, but demand at least 2 races of the 3 have similar distance/surface or I'll continue to use pedigree.

[nobeyerspls]

When does one jump off pedigree and just go by the PP lines? I do with 3 races in the PP lines, but demand at least 2 races of the 3 have similar distance/surface or I'll continue to use pedigree.

I don't give them more than two attempts on a surface unless it is a lack of precocity issue. Developing horses can improve greatly with age.
An example of a potential positive surface change is in 2nd race at Belmont today. The #2 Smart Thinker could be live at 15-1 (or he may prove that he doesn't want to be a racehorse). Given the odds, he's worth a bet.