True Favorites

[sligg]

If we accept the concept of false favorites, then is there a concept of true favorites?

I'm forever looking for true favorites.

The following is a workout for September 2007 using most of the tracks listed in Brisbet.com. I've isolated several factors using the data from Brisbet that can now be had for free. This is a spot play that doesn't give many bets and maybe this is the reason for the continued profits. But I can't seem to have faith in the method because you need a high percentage of winners to show profit and I don't think one can maintain this torrid pace.

Bets: 26
Won: 24, 92.3%
$ Net: $19.4
ROI: 37.3

Of the two losers, one ran 2nd and the other 3rd.

As long as the data is free I will continue to track the method and maybe after 6 months if the profits continue I will take the method seriously.

I will repeat from previous posts: This is a black box method, no handicapping needed and time required for the day's selections, 15 minutes.

[GameTheory]

If we accept the concept of false favorites, then is there a concept of true favorites? Yes, but true favorites, usually called "legitimate favorites", are not necessarily overlays (although some are). But you can't bet against them profitably either. That's why so many are obsessed with finding false favorites. If they don't, the race is a pass.

[chickenhead]

I've never seen or heard of anything long term profitable on horses that have everything going for them, 1-10, 1-5, etc. I think there are profits available on favorites that have some key things going for them (they're fast!), but maybe a few other things that scare people away.

[Edward DeVere]

But I can't seem to have faith in the method because you need a high percentage of winners to show profit and I don't think one can maintain this torrid pace.

Bets: 26
Won: 24, 92.3%
$ Net: $19.4
ROI: 37.3


Yes, I think it's fairly safe to say that a pace of 92.3% winners cannot be maintained.

;-)

[classhandicapper]

Yes, but true favorites, usually called "legitimate favorites", are not necessarily overlays (although some are). But you can't bet against them profitably either. That's why so many are obsessed with finding false favorites. If they don't, the race is a pass.

I agree. I think it's very difficult to win money betting against legitimate favorites. Even when they are overbet a little, they tend to outperform the take. That's makes it twice as hard to find an overlay elsewhere.

[Robert Fischer]

But I can't seem to have faith in the method because you need a high percentage of winners to show profit and I don't think one can maintain this torrid pace.


I have faith in you Sligg. You have always been on a torrid pace!
It's amazing what you have been able to do with the bris info.
:ThmbUp:
keep it up!




10/1/2007
Bets: 26
Won: 24, 92.3%
$ Net: $19.4
ROI: 37.3
Of the two losers, one ran 2nd and the other 3rd.
--------------------------
9/17/2007
And so the current method thus far has these results:
Days: 17
Bets: 20
Won: 19, 99%
Place: 20, 100%
Show: 20, 100%
Win ROI: 45.8%
Place ROI: 20%
Show ROI: 9.3%
The one horse that lost came in second.

-------------------------------
8/11/2007
Bets: 205
Won: 129
W %: 62.9
ROI % 8.9
----------------------------------
6/8/2007
Month Bets $ Won $ Bet $ Net ROI W %
March 53 136.1 106 30.1 28.4 79.2
May 58 132.8 116 16.8 14.5 75.9

------------------------------------
8-16-2006
Bets: 34
Won: 21, 61.8%
Place: 34, 100%
Show: 34, 100%
Won ROI: 23.4
Place ROI: 36.5
Show ROI: 17.6

----------------------------------
2-01-2006
# Bets: 15
Win: 12 (80%)
Place: 14 (93.3%)
Show: 15 (100%)
Win ROI: 31.7%
Place ROI: 26.7%
Show ROI: 13.7%

-------------------------------------

[ratpack]

Why try to beat them, why not look above and below, P3 options are usually available.

[Hosshead]

Sal,
It seems that your method has shown a profit for some time now. :ThmbUp:

As I recall, you changed the rules (regarding trainers % or something) along the way. Have you tweaked the rules slightly since then?
I would only include the results since you stopped backfitting. (last rule change)
Actually you're getting almost a play a day, which is good, considering how selective it has to be, to get that win%.
It sounds very logical that the win% can't possibly hold up that high. So you may be getting to that point where you actually want a few losers to bring it back to what could be considered "normal". (wish I had that "problem")

I'd be interested to see the overall results of each month since the last rule change, and all months added together (total plays/ROI, etc.) since the last rule change.
Also try subtracting the top one or two payoff plays each month , then get the ROI, and see if each month's profits are depending on one or two top payoffs. (a top payoff could be $4.40 !!<g>)

Good Luck ----- Hoss