CAN A SYSTEM BASED ON OVER 5500 PICKS....

[formula_2002]

with a 6% profit and a 22% win rate contiue to win in "real Time"

Send me an e-mail for Fridays 63 picks over 10 tracks.



Regards

Joe M


http://globalwinningpicks.homestead.com/GLOBALWINNINGPICKSX.html

[thoroughbred]

You may, or may not, have a succesful system. But there is always a suspicion raised when you require that we e-mail you for your picks.

What immediately comes to mind is this very elementary, and simple, question: Why wouldn't you post your picks right here on this board? Especially since that is so much simpler than answering individual e-mails, isn't it?

[formula_2002]

Thoroughbred, I’ll post 1/3/03 picks right here if someone would tell me how to do so without having all the data scrambled.
I have tried attaching a file in the past but that does work for me on this board.

E-mail is not difficult for me and it’s my choice.
Those that e-mail are encouraged to discuss the results of my picks right here.

I do wish to keep this board active with discussions I think are import to the game. This is one of the best boards I have seen in many years.

Do you have a statistical analysis background?

Regards
Joe M

[GameTheory]

Surround your picks with "CODE" & "/CODE", except put square brackets around the words instead of quotes.



ColA ColB ColC





(I'm not sure if you can type in tabs, but it will preserve them if you paste in a document between the code tags.)

[thoroughbred]

Formula_2002:

You asked me this question:

Do you have a statistical analysis background?

While I don't see the relevance of the question, my answer is: yes!

My background is in engineering with emphasis on engineering mathematics.

Some our fellow Pace Advantage members have probably seen how such mathematics was applied in my booklet, "Engineering Analysis of Thoroughbred Racing."

But again, I don't see what that has to do with my asking that you post your picks here.

[formula_2002]

Thorougbred (RB).
I know your referenced work fairly well.
You sent a copy of it to me about 9 years ago....(prodigy days).
I'm looking at the booklet right now..


Hope all is well.

I guess you gave me the best reason for wanting to put my post
here... I found you again..

I'll be in touch

Joe M

[hurrikane]

So, has the engineering analysis of racing changed in the last 9 years and if not can I take a look...as one geek to anouther. :D

[thoroughbred]

Hurrikane

If you e-mail your "snail mail"address to me at:

rpbprb@yahoo.com

I'll send you a copy.

[formula_2002]

35 PICKS WON 26% OF THE TIME, RETURNING A PROFIT OF 15%

[GameTheory]

I thought you were gonna post those -- you wanted to know how to get them formatted correctly, and I showed you...

[formula_2002]

I try and I try, and nada....
Whats the magic formula to attach a file?


here is what I get with the code thing..

hard to tell whats going on especially when one must be able to read what min odds are



GLOBAL WINNING PICKS 01/04/2003
FINAL MIN GWP
TRACK--DATE RACE # HORSE WNET PNET SNET DBT W E ODDS ODDS
AQU20030104 1 REGAL PRO 2.5
AQU20030104 2 BETWINEYO 2.75
AQU20030104 6 CLASSIC E 1.29
AQU20030104 9 STREET WH 4

FGX20030104 2 CIELO'S G 3.75
FGX20030104 3 ANTSY 2.2
FGX20030104 8 TWILITE T 2.43
FGX20030104 10 THE NINER 2.5

GGX20030104 4 WINITALL 2.75
GGX20030104 5 ALOHALANI 3.2
GGX20030104 6 UFOLOGY 3.25
GGX20030104 7 FASTASASP 3
GGX20030104 8 SMOKEVILL 1.8
GGX20030104 9 ROYAL ON 1.14

GPX20030104 1 CASUAL CO 1.43
GPX20030104 2 DISCOVERI 3
GPX20030104 3 ROARING F 1.57
GPX20030104 5 HUSSAR 2.4
GPX20030104 6 GULCH APP 1.67
GPX20030104 7 DRAW PLAY 3.75
GPX20030104 9 PLAY IT O 2.83
GPX20030104 10 BAPTIZE 5.25
GPX20030104 11 MOTIVES 5.67

HOU20030104 2 PEGASUSLU 1.33
HOU20030104 4 SALEM AVE 2.67
HOU20030104 6 SHUTTLE S 3.5
HOU20030104 7 CLAIM MY 1.63

LRL20030104 1 TERESA'S 1.71
LRL20030104 5 BEAUTY'S 2.75
LRL20030104 8 LADYECHO 1.29

PHA20030104 3 FULL TILT 3.4
PHA20030104 4 ALY'S LEA 3.25
PHA20030104 5 ZAWADAYOU 2
PHA20030104 6 QUIET BRO 0.71
PHA20030104 8 BENSALEM 2.43
PHA20030104 9 GRIFFINIT 1.33
PHA20030104 10 BRACKETS 2.75

SAX20030104 4 DISTINCTI 2.75
SAX20030104 5 FUTURAL 3.75
SAX20030104 6 MACHO IMA 3
SAX20030104 7 WHITE CLO 2.67
SAX20030104 8 CONGAREE 1.43
SAX20030104 9 POLISH PO 3.67

SUF20030104 1 SMOKIN BR 2.6
SUF20030104 2 CHURN 2.4
SUF20030104 3 COURTYARD 1.67
SUF20030104 5 DECIMAL 3.25
SUF20030104 7 ANXIOUS P 3.25
SUF20030104 8 WEEKEND B 2.6
SUF20030104 9 BRIDESTON 3

TAM20030104 1 COLEBROOK 2.6
TAM20030104 2 WOODSIDE 3.67
TAM20030104 3 SILVER AW 2.75
TAM20030104 5 DAKOTA AP 1.11
TAM20030104 6 APPROVED 2.6
TAM20030104 7 PIERCED N 2.33
TAM20030104 8 MAGOFFIN 2.67
TAM20030104 10 SO ENTICI 2.2
TAM20030104 11 BRASS PUN 3

[Derek2U]

I did Game Theory's poll & I classified myself as artsey/loser.
Just for the record --- and maybe its news to other NYRA players--
if you, like myself, have a OTB acct you can request a print out
of your activity for the year. In 2002, my copy shows deposits,
withdrawals, bets made, with cumulative balances. I "churned"
over some 50K in bets and made a gross profit of almost $650.
I didn't adjust for any expenses like DRFs etc etc --- and honestly
don't care about that stuff --- except to say I had a huge amount
of fun and can't wait to play in '03.

[formula_2002]

wow.. that looks better than i though it would...
It didnt look that good prior to "publishing" the post!!

I can work around that.

Thanks

[formula_2002]

GLOBAL WINNING PICKS, RESULTS FOR 01/03/03
FINAL MIN GWP
TRACK--DATE RACE # HORSE WNET PNET SNET DBT W E ODDS ODDS WIN % PROFIT % A/E %
AQU20030103 1 RICH CELE -1 0.95 0.4 1 0 0.26 2.8 1.5 0 -1 0
AQU20030103 3 FINEONTHE 2.05 0.8 0.7 1 1 0.33 2.05 1.33 1 2.05 3.05
AQU20030103 4 QUEEN ISA 1.75 0.45 0.25 1 1 0.36 1.75 1.11 1 1.75 2.75
AQU20030103 5 KREBSIE -1 2.85 1.5 1 0 0.07 13.9 0.89 0 -1 0
AQU20030103 6 PRIVATE P -1 -1 0.45 1 0 0.29 2.5 1.67 0 -1 0

FGX20030103 4 HUMBLE LI -1 -1 -1 1 0 0.18 4.5 3.4 0 -1 0
FGX20030103 5 SURI 2.3 0.7 0.4 1 1 0.3 2.3 1.17 1 2.3 3.3
FGX20030103 7 LUNA JOE -1 -1 -1 1 0 0.1 8.7 1.71 0 -1 0
FGX20030103 8 VALID PRI -1 1.1 0.4 1 0 0.26 2.9 1.67 0 -1 0

GGX20030103 2 PETERS PU -1 -1 0.4 1 0 0.11 7.7 2.17 0 -1 0
GGX20030103 3 GIVE AWAY -1 -1 0.2 1 0 0.22 3.5 1.6 0 -1 0
GGX20030103 6 EXECUTIVE -1 -1 -1 1 0 0.28 2.6 2.4 0 -1 0

GPX20030103 1 BET GOLD -1 -1 0.4 1 0 0.29 2.4 1.14 0 -1 0
GPX20030103 2 LOST FACT 8.2 1.9 1 1 1 0.11 8.2 3.2 1 8.2 9.2
GPX20030103 6 ONE JUDGE -1 -1 1.1 1 0 0.21 3.8 2.4 0 -1 0
GPX20030103 8 LAST INTE -1 -1 -1 1 0 0.1 9.1 3 0 -1 0
GPX20030103 10 GOLD BALL -1 1.7 1.1 1 0 0.16 5.1 1.71 0 -1 0

HOU20030103 3 RUNS NAKE -1 0.9 0.5 1 0 0.26 2.9 2.2 0 -1 0
HOU20030103 5 KEEPTHENA -1 0.9 0.2 1 0 0.24 3.2 2.57 0 -1 0
HOU20030103 6 BY HIMSEL 3.3 1.4 0.8 1 1 0.23 3.3 3.25 1 3.3 4.3
HOU20030103 10 BARTEE PR -1 -1 -1 1 0 0.1 8.7 2.17 0 -1 0

LRL20030103 2 SOUTHERN -1 -1 -1 1 0 0.19 4.3 3.5 0 -1 0
LRL20030103 5 BREEZY -1 -1 -1 1 0 0.16 5.1 2.2 0 -1 0
LRL20030103 9 WATCHERST -1 -1 -1 1 0 0.09 9.6 2.6 0 -1 0

SAX20030103 1 CHARMELEO -1 -1 -1 1 0 0.18 4.7 3.25 0 -1 0
SAX20030103 4 CHILLY CA -1 -1 -1 1 0 0.05 17.7 2.5 0 -1 0
SAX20030103 7 ABOVE PER -1 -1 -1 1 0 0.53 0.9 0.88 0 -1 0
SAX20030103 8 DOMINATED 3 0.9 0.5 1 1 0.25 3 1.5 1 3 4

TAM20030103 1 GREENSBOT -1 -1 -1 1 0 0.13 6.7 2.75 0 -1 0
TAM20030103 5 DEVIOUS M -1 -1 0.05 1 0 0.3 2.3 0.86 0 -1 0
TAM20030103 6 GO FOR GL 3.3 0.9 0.3 1 1 0.23 3.3 2.8 1 3.3 4.3
TAM20030103 7 GUN BARRE -1 -1 -1 1 0 0.22 3.5 1.33 0 -1 0
TAM20030103 10 TWISTED -1 -1 -1 1 0 0.26 2.8 2 0 -1 0
TUP20030103 1 BONNIE'S 3.3 0.8 0.4 1 1 0.23 3.3 3.25 1 3.3 4.3
TUP20030103 9 FRANCOIS 4.1 2.3 0.5 1 1 0.2 4.1 3.4 1 4.1 5.1
5.3 -1.45 -2.45 35 9 7.48 4.95 2.15 26% 15% 1.203208556
TRACK--DATE RACE # HORSE WNET PNET SNET DBT W E ODDS ODDS WIN % PROFIT % A/E %
AVE AVE

[thoroughbred]

Formula_2002:

It's been a long time, in fact so long that I need to make sure that I know who you are. If I'm right your last name ends in "ia."

Assuming, I'm right, you are the one who provided me with lots of racing statistics that I was able to use in a number of ways.

One of the more interesting results I obtained was this:

Under these assumptions:
We bet every race.
We only bet one horse to Win.
Then, in the long term,
We need to be able to have a win percentage of about 32% to start making a profit, and if anyone ever could achieve, day in and day out a win percentage of 40%, he would become very rich ndeed.

Thanks for asking about me; all is well. CompuTrak is now up to Version 7.0. That's a version which requires no data entry, all of it being automatic using the BRIS Drf past performance files as the input. Lots more added since the days we last were in contact.

Anyway, I'm glad to hear from you again, and I will be studying your picks.

[PaceAdvantage]

The attachment issue is my fault. I have to manually go in and check to see if any attachments have been uploaded, in order to defend against viruses. Unless you e-mail me and tell me you've uploaded something, or I catch it in a thread, I won't know, and I'm not good at regularly checking....sorry 'bout that...


==PA

[formula_2002]

Thoroughbred, yep the 'ia' fits.

Nice to see some of the old Prodigy group here..

Glad to hear that CompuTrack is still progressing.

I'm l over my head with stats, trying to sort them out for years.

Currently I'm working on odds line development.
The final post tome odds must exceed my calculated "GWP MIN ODDS" as shown in the table of picks I posted here.

Thanks to some help from GR1, I can now post using my excel files.

I have been using Bris's ALL_WAYS data files for the past three years. Due to its dbase friendliness, it's right up my alley.

If you are interested, do a search on my FORMULA_2002, and you will see where my head is at.. I'd appreciate your comments.
Especially the Impact Value post.

CIAO

Joe M

[formula_2002]

Since 1/3/2003, I have issued, either through this board or through e-mails, free 463 picks.

The results of those picks are remarkably close to the results obtained in the original study.

The 23% of the 463 picks won, returning a profit of 4%.

I hope to close out the 30 day period of 1/3 through 2/3 with profit.

That should result in about 500 picks, which will represent close to 10% of the base sample.

I think that accomplishment, of posting such free internet picks, would be unique.


Joe M

[Zaf]

That is a great accomplishment given the size of the sample. Not only did you beat the takeout, but you actually showed a 4% profit. Not easy to do.
Good Job.

ZAFONIC

[formula_2002]

thanks Z,

"Hope springs eternal in the human breast: ... "

[formula_2002]

here is an up date on the system.

since 01/03/2003 to date. 864 picks returning a dollar loss of 4%.
and a win % of 21%.

the a/e ratio (actual winners / expected winners)= -1%

the a/e ratio is also equal to the return on dutch betting.

as in all samples, I only record odds <20-1

I'll be updating the system.

I will be working with the same factors, but working to a more exacting odds line.

The backfiitted data for the new system looks like this.

3425 horses (1 per race), 13% profit and 19% winners.
the a/e ratio = 8%

compared to the previous back fitted system of over 5000 picks, 7% profit and 21% winners.

I'll be posting the odds range break down and various other reports on my web site, this week.

Joe M