Bottom parts of exotics [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

JimG

03-17-2001, 09:53 PM

I look for horses that tend to have opposite running style from the horse played on top. I also look for horses that have something negative and positive in what I would call the main handicapping factors. The positives give you a reason to throw it in and the negatives keep the price decent. I rarely ever tie up the two horses I feel are the best in the race. They are generally shorter priced and rarely come in together.

My ticket for exacta may look like 12/345 $5
then reverse 345/12 for $1.

Jim

Lefty

03-17-2001, 11:30 PM

Peeps, it was a legit question. At HTR there are a number of ways to play the prog. Well, at HSH there's also
a number of ways to play the prgm. When you guys ask
ea. other questions it's fine and dandy. When I ask Slider what he's doing you get bent out of shape.
AND you know Druther's picks were not the EXVEX method. Jeez
How come at Yahoo it says you can't be rude and crude
but that's all I see there is rude and crude? Maybe you
guys could use a dictionary. !

Slider

03-18-2001, 04:33 AM

Lefty,
Thanks I looked over there and laughed so hard, I got the hic-cups.

Slider

03-18-2001, 04:47 AM

Good answers Big Hit and JimG.
Has anyone done a study of opposite running styles?
Does letting the odds chose the bottom horse work well? I am fooling around with current form and form cycles. Thought maybe if they are not fast enough for the win maybe their good form will put them into contention for the place spot. Who knows, maybe coin flips work best. LOL
Anyone use place modeling? Did it do any good or is the coin flip king?

Lefty

03-18-2001, 12:47 PM

Mikiemoose over at Yahoo asks me to explain EXVEX. He
says it can't be very good if it can only hit 1-12. Mikie,
refer to Slider's post:Top 2 hit over 50%. 1-12 not EXVEX
EXVEX most effective if odds can be updated(entered into computer close to posttime) That's why I don't use
it myself. I don't want to lug lap[top to racebook. BUT
that's only 1 of several methods possible with HSH. There's more than 1 way to skin a cat.
Peeps, I asked a question of Slider on this board instead
of HSH because he posted on this board. Simple.
Druther was doing a simple test of 1 factor from HSH
certainly not EXVEX or any other multiple factor approavh. You really need to get off that mantra.

Slider

03-22-2001, 10:58 PM

Originally posted by Slider
Good answers Big Hit and JimG.
Has anyone done a study of opposite running styles?
Does letting the odds chose the bottom horse work well? I am fooling around with current form and form cycles. Thought maybe if they are not fast enough for the win maybe their good form will put them into contention for the place spot. Who knows, maybe coin flips work best. LOL
Anyone use place modeling? Did it do any good or is the coin flip king?
---------------------------------------------------------------------
HELLO where are the HTR users? Will HTR answer the above questions? Anybody out there know the answers? Do I have to get the coin out.

Lefty

03-23-2001, 12:12 PM

Doc Sartin did a study of rs yrs ago concerning win and
place. He said most of time place horse will have opposite rs of win and 3rd horse most likely to have rs
of winner. Only about 25% of win and place horses will
have similiar styles. Since then many have hitched to
his wagon.

Druther

03-23-2001, 03:18 PM

Looks to me like NONE of them like to finish second.

Slider

03-23-2001, 05:05 PM

THANKS LARRY,
Welcome back you were missed.
Those are interesting stats. Can you run them in a grouping of 0 to 4, 4 to 5, and 6 to 8. Maybe Druther can see something then. Looks like smoke now.

Slider

03-23-2001, 11:38 PM

Ouch!
Now I got the point.
So, Querin speed points are useless for this selection.
E/P's look like a possibility until I consider that over half the entries in a race are usually E's and E/P's.
Am I correct that the bottom part of exacta handicapping does not exist? You just take the odds and ranking of the odds from favorite to near favorites and throw in some middle odds and HOPE you got the correct hand grenade?

Slider

03-26-2001, 03:24 PM

We do not have any corrections to that statement?
I expected many comments on that sarcastic statement.
It appears that no one knows the answer.
If so, then a giant area is open to the software writers.
Write a program for the 2nd and 3rd finisher and make your fortune.
Dave I want an exacta and trifecta button. LOL

Dave Schwartz

03-26-2001, 07:06 PM

Is tomorrow okay? I am a little busy today. <G>

If it were only that easy!

Tom

03-26-2001, 07:22 PM

I find that the Quirin Speed Points alone are sometimes not too predictive of how the race will be run. I like to look at the speed point percentage each horse owns.
A horse wih 8 QSP is probably not as good a risk as one with only 5 when the next closest has only 2 if there are two with 7 going against the "8".
Tom

hdcper

03-26-2001, 10:57 PM

Slider,

Your question about how to identify the place horse for exacta wagering is a good one. However, I am not certain that is where I would necessarily begin if I were planning to play exactas seriously. It would appear from your original posting that EX/VEX is the method you have chosen for selecting you top horse or horses for exacta play.

If my assumption is right, then it appears that your top pick wins 32% of the time, but how does this win percentage vary as the odds or price of the horse increases. In other words, you must determine by keeping records the actual win % of your top pick (and even second pick if you plan to use it too in exactas) so a required payoff can be determined in your exacta play. Once that is established, more records of horses you consider candidates for running second (place contenders) should be tracked to determine their probabilities of running second. Then required payoffs can be calculated for each possible exacta combination and monitoring of the board will determine your actual plays.

I think identifying the place horse is just as difficult as picking the winner, because most of us have been programmed to select winners. Only through reviewing the elements or criteria of the place horse when our top selection wins will you or anyone else identify what works best in his or her exacta wagering.

Again picking exactas are just like making win bets, only play when the price is right.

In closing, please consider monitoring your place return compared to your exacta return for a period of time. You may find the additional exacta track take makes this wager less advantageous than just an old-fashioned place ticket.

Hdcper

Lefty

03-26-2001, 11:19 PM

I'll just stay with Doc Sartin's definition of place horse.
Works pretty darn well.

GR1@HTR

03-26-2001, 11:32 PM

Lefty,

What was Sartin definition of a place horse?

Lefty

03-27-2001, 12:04 AM

yb-boarder1

03-31-2001, 07:55 AM

Good morning - you are just jesting right?
If you have the top half locked then the bottom half is a slam dunk (all or part of the rest).

In the event your post is an actual quest for knowledge then think this way.

Assumes the top half of the Exacta is locked.
Go to any tote board source that displays the exacta probables. This will greatly help you decide which probables with your selection will be profitable. Lets further assume your horse with another horse will pay say $20. Your horse with another horse will pay $40. If looking for the big score then bet the exacta of your horse to the $20 horse enough times to cover the total cost of your wager and then bet the $40 exacta as many times as you wish.

Total wager is say $100. You bet the $20 exacta 5 times and the $40 exacta 40 times. If $20 exacta wins you collect $100 and break even. If the $40 exacta comes then you have $1,600............ Go man go!

Slider

03-31-2001, 08:45 PM

It is not a joke. Have heard only two ways to bet for the place part of exactas and or trifectas. Pace plays and value bets off the leftover win contenders.

It appears nobody is actually handicapping for the place horse.

Thanks to all who answered.

hurrikane

04-02-2001, 01:02 PM

Slider,
I think the question you ask isn't going to help you cash more tickets. Lets say you could pic the place horse 32% of the time..just like your win horse. If you check you will probably find you can do that rather easily. the problem comes in combining 32% winners on the win horse and 32% winners on the place horse and then getting them both to come in together. I'm no statistitian, maybe somebody here would like to take a stab at the prob of the ticket winning. I would guess around 5 to 7% or less.
So you see the question isn't really how to handicap the place horse but how to increase the number of combinations to increase the number of win tickets. I think that is a matter of finding the horses that are running. To do that you need a lot of info...trainers...some are in the money over 50% of the time..if your win pic isn't trained by a leading trainer then you better have the leading trainers in you place horse pic...mlo...surprising how often the top 123 mlo come in in the money. you need to consider those. Opposite runstyles...track bais...jockey...
To many variables..IMHO you need to play combinations of horses and screw the heavy duty handicapping of the place horse. there have been a lot of good suggestions here about picking. Especially the tote board...and if you're looking for ways to play combinations...get Tomcats book.

racehoss

04-09-2001, 05:18 PM

Wow! you guys really take this stuff seriously, I've been spending too much time cleaning stalls, I had no idea there were so many books out there about betting on horses, and so many people out there reading them. Don't misunderstand me, I think it is great. It just seems to me there are too many things that happen in a horserace to mess up your mathematical equations. What I usually do is handicap what I think are the top three contenders in a race, what I think not necessarily what the program thinks, or the tip sheet, what I see happening on a particular horses form, and then I box my top three picks, I try to fig. how the race is going to be run, who will go to the lead, who will top him if anyone, who's the best closer in the field ect., I pick the winner and then I pick the horse I think will run second, and then i will find the horse I think could win if the other two weren't in the race, and I box those three, I take a lot of factors into consideration, rider, track condition, pedigree's for distance, ect. alot of times i talk myself out of horses i shouldn't, ex. SA this weekend, I handicapped a maiden race, always good odds, and long shots, liked a 6yr old maiden going 1 1\8 if you can believe it, because out of 19 starts she had run two 1 1\8 races in 48 and 49, everybody else had run in 50 and 51, I put her with my two other picks and threw the favorite out, which i usually don't do, I told myself that horse didn't want to go that far, cause he was getting caught at 1 1\16, well the old 6yr old maiden win paid $26, and my second choice was third, the favorite beat me out in a photo for second, I should of had that exacta was around $100. My horses usually run 1st and 3rd, so I don't know what the hell I'am trying to give you guys advice for, just thought I'd visit for a while.
PEACE
Racehoss

smf

04-09-2001, 09:39 PM

Racehoss,

I know you're posting tongue in cheek about handicappers "mathematical equations" (although I agree w/ your view). Dave's website addy is up on another thread, and I've provided one below that GR1 and others use.

http://www.homebased2.com/cgi-bin/UB2/UltraBoard.pl?Action=ShowBoard&Board=htr01&Idle=&Sort=&Order=&Session=

These guys take this stuff pretty seriously, and some are quite good. I admit to chuckling a time or two when I see posts that are best suited for a table top game that's played with dice, or cards; Nothing about horses, or the business of racing.

When these guys hit on a 50-1 horse, I stop chuckling real quick, lol.

And, I can guarantee you that most of these folks laugh at me being a trainer handicapper.....until I scope out a claimed runner that had no speed until "the right trainer" takes him thru the claimbox. Then, when "my" runner wires the field over their fig horse, they (might) stop laughing.

That's what makes this particular board a great one. Like Ridersup said, we have all kinds of 'cappers here. Most other boards are too homogenous to learn from.

Personally, I always bet 'win or win/place' for claims on dirt. Hdcper makes a strong point in his comments concerning place payouts vs exactas. I was surprised when I found out that my place wagers did as well as they did (vs exacta savers).

For turf, I have much more success with trifectas than win wagers.

racehoss

04-09-2001, 10:41 PM

Hi SMF!, and everybody, Your right I was just joking around, Iam a terrible gambler, the only big $ I've ever made was gambling on my own horses, and some of my friends on the tracks horses. To tell ya the truth I don't really understand half of what these guys are talking about, and it makes me feel really stupid, because I've been on the racetrack all of my life, my granma use to bet tickets for me when i was a kid, you would think after all these years I would understand more, I mean I can read a racing form as good as anyone, and I know most of the trainers, and jocks in the country, some of the stuff these guys are talking about, I have not a clue, it makes me think I've been doing pretty good all these years considering I really don't put much effort into it. I think I might check out some of these web sites that have been mentioned. Sure hope no one takes my advice too seriously, anyway nice visiting with ya, don't forget my horses running Thurs. I think they will run good.
Talk to ya later,
Leslie

Robert Fischer

09-07-2007, 09:50 PM

why not ?

Greyfox

09-07-2007, 11:17 PM

GR1, Sartin said place horse most likely would have opposite
run style of win horse while show horse most likely to
have same style as winner. Winner and place horse having same style only occurs about 25%

Good point, Lefty. Sartin often said that the 2 nd best horse in the race was not the most likely to finish in second place, look elsewhere. That wasn't the model for second. The fav/longshot angle often works. Try Fairplex today for selected races.

BillW

09-07-2007, 11:25 PM

Robert,

You get the prize for re-opening the oldest thread! Last post in this thread was made only 24 days after this incarnation of the PA site was opened. :jump:
Unfortunately, over the last 7 years, the prizes have been regrettably lost. :D

Robert Fischer

09-08-2007, 08:05 AM

Thanks Bill :D I am about to do some hands-on capping, thought this oldie was relevant to the theme...

Trying to find a profitable method. Inefficiencies in the exacta probables has been one of my interests lately.

I started off with this crude method:

1. In each race, I circled the horses who I thought had any real chance to win.

2. I made a rough estimate of my minimum acceptable odds for races with 3,4 or 5 contenders.

3. Using only the races with 3,4,or 5 contenders circled, I wagered whenever ANY combination of the contenders met the criteria.

Notes: Estimates were calculated from "fair odds" using the number of winning contenders. Field size was set at 10 to keep it simple. A straight exacta required 150% of fair odds, a box required a minimum of 200% for the lowest combination.

Robert Fischer

09-08-2007, 08:20 AM

Continued

observations: Races immediately separated into two main categories - those with one or two well-bet favorites, and those in which the contenders were equally supported.

In races with well-bet favorites- I was often forced by the rules to totally exclude the favorite, and include the long shots of the contenders, or one of the longest shots. This fact along with the fact that I only did light handicapping, and did not Rank the contenders - leads me to believe i was getting the short end of the probability stick in those races. Fortunately the opposite is also is saying that the method has more use if any, in races with equally supported contenders.
In general I also think this method could be better if I had tossed the horses that I wouldn't feel comfortable using on top. The interesting thing here is that if you are demanding say a $30/1 on a payout, you don't need to hit very often. You are playing the low probability/high payout game and you subject yourself to long losing streaks but hopefully a profitable year. Method needs some tweaking.

*Something I am experimenting with right now is to simply try to pick the exacta straight. - My best exacta for a given race.

How do i determine what odds to demand?

How do i pick the best place horse? :jump:

Tom

09-08-2007, 10:47 AM

What a list of Who's Who's of the Golden Age!:eek:

Kelso

09-08-2007, 03:14 PM

Fortunately the opposite is also is saying that the method has more use if any, in races with equally supported contenders.

Robert,
Curious ... how, in general, do you describe such a race?

Is it one in which the nominal favorite is at odds greater than a certain level ... say 3-1 or so? Or do you require that 2 or more horses be within a certain odds range of each other ... say 1 or 2 points?

Thank you.

Robert Fischer

09-08-2007, 03:20 PM

Robert,
Curious ... how, in general, do you describe such a race?

Is it one in which the nominal favorite is at odds greater than a certain level ... say 3-1 or so? Or do you require that 2 or more horses be within a certain odds range of each other ... say 1 or 2 points?

Thank you.

No official definition - but I think you nailed it. 3-1 or more for the favorite says that the public doesn't know. If you have 4 contenders and the odds are 3-1,4-1, 7-1 ,9-1 you probably have such a case. I wouldn't necessarily count points.

dav4463

09-08-2007, 03:56 PM

This is what I do for MOST of my races I pick. I write down my top six horses in order.

I scan the exacta payoffs involving my first choice on top with the other five and play a wheel as long as at about 3 minutes to post, my exacta combo is $50 or more.

I do the same thing with my second choice, but require $70 or more payoff.

If you aren't able to get the exacta payoff in time, you can play the combos whose combined odds are 10-1 or higher. This works pretty well too sometimes.

If my top pick or second pick is 5-1 or higher, I just play to win.

If one of the top two favorites is not in my top six, I play a trifecta wheel also, using my top choice and/or second choice on top.

thespaah

09-08-2007, 11:54 PM

I do my picks from the bottom up...I look first at who the throw outs are. Next I find the contenders..Then the best of the field..I check the probable pays for anomolies( under/overlays)..This takes only a few mins....I settle with my predicted winners and put my contenders underneath and I am done...I have no ego to bruise so I don't concern myself with hitting cold exactas as some people do..My objective is to increase my bankroll. Not make a killing..I hit the logical bets and let the big bombs take care of themsleves.Also I don't play beat the favorite..if the logical choice is the fav, so be it..

Robert Fischer

09-09-2007, 09:01 AM