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View Full Version : Software evolution: a two way street


46zilzal
09-25-2007, 11:20 PM
I started with the Sartin people with their first program (strangely called Phase III which I found out later was a marketing ploy to get people to think I and II were already out there).

It was a program of velocity and compounded ratings, had a fledgling following who feedback results of it's application at track all over the U.S. and Canada.

Energy distribution, the allocation of percentages of velocity per fraction, marked the next major step in this evolving progression of ideas sparked by a very creative group of minds at the then PIRCO company in Southern California. This was truly the group genius that earmarked the Sartin method as completely unique even today. It also marked the point of schism for many of the original teaching members as Brohamer and Pizzola, amongst others, branched out with variants of the original ideas.

Minor programs called Engen and a very good one called KGEN (the kinetic generator) came next.

From these, came the next generation called Thoromation which incorporated graphic representations of each entered horse lines. A step forward in understanding the read outs.

Minor improvements (mostly cosmetic other than the idea of chaos) came with the programs Quad-rator until Synthesis came out: supposed to be a snythesis of all of the previous ideas and the aspect of having no more manual data entry.

Synthesis evolved to become the program Validator which utilized a mathematical trick (probability convergence) to get user to bet their lower choices and the program manipulated them to become closer together. This went through three iterations, each one becoming a better product than it's predecessor.

Sartin closed down his entire operation and his programmer was left "high and dry" with no way to make a living. He was contacted by a group of interested individuals, and using his years of experience along with the feedback from many testers, wrote the program Speculator, which has been a significant improvement. He mentioned to me several times that it allowed HIM to enter ideas that had been "nixed" when previous final versions were not up to him, and allowed, for the first time, his own vision of the software to come out. He died recently, but left the original computer code to two individuals.

Another, Windows based program, combining aspects of Thoromation, Energy, Synthesis, Validator and Speculator is in it's testing stages currently and, from preliminary reports, seems to be another step forward.

How did ANY of these come into being? By a honest bi-directional interaction between programmer and tester in the field. There were NO preconceived ideas. If something theoretical or marginally effective did not pan out, it was deleted. If some heretofore correlation was discovered and reported, it was embraced as yet another step forward in the ongoing evolution of ideas that are eclectic and without a requirement of where or from whom they come from.

These were made up from IDEAS. Those never stop. Many work, many don't, but in order to find out, one has to test hypotheses, not just eliminate them because they are different from the originator's vision. Once started, ideas get a life of their own.

Donnie
09-26-2007, 08:20 AM
Zilzal-
What you describe as the momentum of forward movement is exactly the Ken Massa story....although he is NOT the programmer of Speculator. He tries ideas that are many times put forward by his subscribers, if they work after imperical testing, he will add them to HTR. If they are duds, or over time they fall from grace, then he either enhances them, or they are removed. Ken was one of the first to put the focus on the first fraction as being the key fraction. He was paid handsomely at the track for this train of thought. He will tell you that as of late the mutuels have depressed for that notion. But that has not stopped him from moving forward with his ideas or those that are offered up by his subscribers. And how does this happen? Your quote:

By a honest bi-directional interaction between programmer and tester in the field.

Cheers to both Massa and the programmer(s) of which you speak. They keep us on the edge.

DanG
09-26-2007, 08:51 AM
Zilzal-
What you describe as the momentum of forward movement is exactly the Ken Massa story....although he is NOT the programmer of Speculator. He tries ideas that are many times put forward by his subscribers, if they work after imperical testing, he will add them to HTR. If they are duds, or over time they fall from grace, then he either enhances them, or they are removed. Ken was one of the first to put the focus on the first fraction as being the key fraction. He was paid handsomely at the track for this train of thought. He will tell you that as of late the mutuels have depressed for that notion. But that has not stopped him from moving forward with his ideas or those that are offered up by his subscribers. And how does this happen? Your quote:

By a honest bi-directional interaction between programmer and tester in the field.

Cheers to both Massa and the programmer(s) of which you speak. They keep us on the edge.
Good topic 46 and I certainly echo’s Donnie’s well written thoughts. :ThmbUp:

If you’re lucky enough to find a programmer (as Donnie described) who will listen and interact, you should get on your knees and thank the heavens.

They are worth many times what the monthly fee is. This advantage becomes exponential when they are also an active player imo, as Massa and others happen to be.

JimG
09-26-2007, 09:29 AM
They are worth many times what the monthly fee is. This advantage becomes exponential when they are also an active player imo, as Massa and others happen to be.

Agree regarding Massa. I have found Jeff Platt at JCapper to be that way as well.

Jim

Jingle
09-26-2007, 09:49 AM
46

Nice concise history of the Sartin Methodology, really. I haven't tried JCAPPER but Ken Massa is the greatest.

46zilzal
09-26-2007, 11:19 AM
I have always stated there are two FUNDAMENTAL things about handicapping: FIRST, we will never know it all since we are catching up all the time with change BUT we have to recognize that and be constantly vigilant towards that goal, and 2nd, there is no ONE way up the mountain top of finding the winner as there are many, different signs pointing toward them. Should I choose one way and you another does not mean that we are anything but different.

keenang
09-26-2007, 06:53 PM
46
your replay of thr SARTIN years are about the same as mine, however I did stop at Thromation. I ran out of money.

Good luck
geno :)

Capper Al
09-26-2007, 07:24 PM
Sartin closed down his entire operation and his programmer was left "high and dry" with no way to make a living. He was contacted by a group of interested individuals, and using his years of experience along with the feedback from many testers, wrote the program Speculator, which has been a significant improvement. He mentioned to me several times that it allowed HIM to enter ideas that had been "nixed" when previous final versions were not up to him, and allowed, for the first time, his own vision of the software to come out. He died recently, but left the original computer code to two individuals.



46,

I do like your thread and your stuff. You might never believe me especially about what I'm going to say. The programmer died penniless. His friends had to all chip in to get him buried. This so help me God is true. My friend swears by this guy, and I have seen his software make some nice scores. May he rest in peace.

wes
09-26-2007, 08:34 PM
http://bindfold.com/forums/showthread.php?t=656




wes

Donnie
09-26-2007, 09:37 PM
Thanks for the link Wes.
I noticed the posts were from 2006. Is there an update on the software? Just curious.

wes
09-26-2007, 09:44 PM
Not sure. I was searching the net and found the site. I know nothing about the software.

wes

Ted Craven
09-26-2007, 09:55 PM
Another one from the archives: http://bindfold.com/forums/showthread.php?t=766

RDSS is alive and well and nearing birth. Check the RDSS Forum in my link. As Tim points out, a platform replicating later Sartin era software, TPRs, some Match Up tools, and some new ideas.

Ted

46zilzal
09-26-2007, 10:13 PM
I do like your thread and your stuff. You might never believe me especially about what I'm going to say. The programmer died penniless. His friends had to all chip in to get him buried.

Wow, as if I did not know that?? His entire support structure PIRCO was taken right out from under him and he was very ill BEFORE that........Not too much different than many a software engineer who gets his job shipped overseas.

Having lost my wife to the same illness, I could comment even more about the difficulties he had to overcome.

What you don't know about things would fill volumes. Makes me want to quote Goethe: "There is nothing more dangerous than ignorance in action."

46zilzal
09-26-2007, 10:44 PM
CapperAl I would check my private messages to get an education.

Capper Al
09-26-2007, 11:27 PM
I didn't know that you had a personal connection here. Sorry for any unnecessary rehashing of your wife's and friend's death.

Regards,

Capper Al

Handiman
09-27-2007, 04:17 PM
There are programmers and there are theorists. The worst of the lot is the programmer who thinks he is a theorist The next is the programmer with absolutely no connection to any theories being offered up for which his programming ability is needed.

The top of the heap, is the programmer who has theories of his own, but is a dyed in the wool truth seeker. This is the guy who will build a foundation and based on observations of his work by knowledgable onlookers, will embrace those observations when offered as suggestions and will seek to find the most usefull tidbits and incorporate them.

In the final analysis, what he really wants, is a final product that is usefull and respected by those in that particular field. AND, he also never ends his search for improvement, full well knowing that end will most likely never be met.

I have looked at several commercial program's and I can say that the gentlemen mentioned here and a couple more in our neighborhood, do in fact reside at the top of the heap.

My cudos to them.

Handi