Betting against yourself/ hedge bets

[cj's dad]

Just seeking opinions on laying multiple wagers in a given race that are "hedge bets" such as boxed exactas, hitting the "all" button in tri's, DD's, Ex's, etc...

Does this strategy pay off in the long run?

While I've had some nice scores, particularly in tri's & P3's, are there any patterns to be aware/wary of ?

[Capper Al]

Just seeking opinions on laying multiple wagers in a given race that are "hedge bets" such as boxed exactas, hitting the "all" button in tri's, DD's, Ex's, etc...

Does this strategy pay off in the long run?

While I've had some nice scores, particularly in tri's & P3's, are there any patterns to be aware/wary of ?

The longer I've been playing the less I like to hedge. The exception might be with 7/1 or longer horses.

[Greyfox]

I hedge every day.
In most races there are 3 or so legitimate contenders for the win and maybe 5 for second place.
I usually box the top 2 , play the top 2 over the top 3 or 4, and sometimes the top 3 over the top 5 depending on the payouts. If two low odds runners come in I sometimes don't get back my total wager. If two larger odds come in, I may have the play several times.
In the long run this practice pays off for me, though maybe not on any given day.
Certainly if I'm alive in the last leg of a pick 4, where I know I'm going to get hundreds of dollars if a particular runner wins, I'm not beyond betting several runners with weighted betting to make sure that I'm coming home a winner one way or the other. Of course if my pick 4 play wins, I might wish that I hadn't done that. But it is a good safety net.

[njcurveball]

The longer I've been playing the less I like to hedge. The exception might be with 7/1 or longer horses.


You confused me here! One minute you are saying this game is a losing one and the next you are offering sound advice.

I think you are sand bagging us my friend!

[rusrious]

Im not a pro or anything, but I can tell you this, the select all button is the devil,lol..

I have done some messing around on ehorse, and one week, i was out over $60,000 selecting all..

I've done it with WPS, DD, Exactas, and Tri's.. When I did hit, I still lost about 47% of my money anyways..

Just letting you know about that, LOL...

[classhandicapper]

I always try to think of each bet independently.

I do bet more than one horse in the same race frequently. However, it's almost always because I dislike a short priced horse enough to create value on multiple other horses and I have no strong opinion about which offers the best value. So I take both of them.

I also play exactas etc... but very rarely wheel one. Wheeling an exacta is functionally the same thing as betting the horse to win. The problem with that is that the exact pool usually has a higher take than the win pool. Unless the two pools are totally out of sync with each other (and that doesn't happen as often these days as it used to), there is nothing to be gained by playing exacta unless you have a 2nd value oriented opinion within the race.

In the example above, I sometimes box 2 horses with good value (or even 3).

I also sometimes use my top choice over just a few horses because I think I can safely eliminate a shorter priced horse from second.

Long ago, I used to make a lot of "savers". In the end it cost me a lot of money.

[Overlay]

I don't believe in boxing exotics or in hedging bets just for the sake of having all the bases covered, without regard for the odds of the horses involved. The overriding consideration for me is value. If a horse or combination is going off at odds that are higher than I think they should be, it's a potential bet, with the amount determined by the disparity between my fair odds and the public's odds. (Of course, because the win pool and exotic pools are separate, a horse that is underlaid to win may be a part of one or more combinations offering value in the exotics, and vice versa.)

To me, as long as you bet based on value, even if you're betting multiple horses in the same race, you're not betting against yourself as you would be if you were routinely including underlays purely for the purpose of hedging. (However, it's also possible to take a high-probability horse that's slightly underlaid when considered by itself, include it in a group wager with overlaid horses, and receive a higher return than if the underlay were excluded.)

[alysheba88]

Negative expectation bets are always a bad idea

[ceejay]

Just seeking opinions on laying multiple wagers in a given race that are "hedge bets" such as boxed exactas, hitting the "all" button in tri's, DD's, Ex's, etc...

Does this strategy pay off in the long run?

While I've had some nice scores, particularly in tri's & P3's, are there any patterns to be aware/wary of ?
IMO the all button is the same as giving up. If you're hitting it hoping for a price, why not just hit the price horses if you suspect a chaos race?

[njcurveball]

I have done some messing around on ehorse, and one week, i was out over $60,000 selecting all..



If you lost $60,000 in a week then I am dating Pamela Anderson and cheating on her with Heather Locklear. :jump:

[betovernetcapper]

If you lost $60,000 in a week then I am dating Pamela Anderson and cheating on her with Heather Locklear. :jump:

God-you like them OLD :)

[kenwoodallpromos]

Add your total bets, however many you make. If the total adds up to OVERLAY, then go dor it!

[Robert Fischer]

Add your total bets, however many you make. If the total adds up to OVERLAY, then go dor it!

preach!

[njcurveball]

God-you like them OLD :)


YEAH MAN! Give me those hags! Heck I will even give Christie Brinkley a tumble as well! :ThmbUp:

[skate]

The longer I've been playing the less I like to hedge. The exception might be with 7/1 or longer horses.


:D ya scared me at first.

because the longer ive played the more i hedge. with that said, your exception explains.

for sure, i look for a bigger price (15,20/1 area).

as far as im concerned (this is me,only) if you cant find a price (maybe 2 or 3), then skip the race.
so when you find that price, you can cover options. wheels, alls, whatever.

otherwise, you are going to nickle and dime yourself to death.

Save your money and then you'll have enough to wheel and deal.

if you go, just to have a good time and cash a ticket, fine, bet every race.:cool:

[formula_2002]

Just seeking opinions on laying multiple wagers in a given race that are "hedge bets" such as boxed exactas, hitting the "all" button in tri's, DD's, Ex's, etc...

Does this strategy pay off in the long run?

While I've had some nice scores, particularly in tri's & P3's, are there any patterns to be aware/wary of ?
Here are some examples of a hedge play.
Say you can make 15% profit at a win % of 30% and you are willing to sacrifice some profit if you can “up” the overall win %.
In the same betting “event”, you find a play that wins 50% of the time and returns a loss of 7%..
Your overall out come is 80% winners and a 1% profit.

If you stay with a 7% loss and lower your win % to 30%,
Your overall outcome is 60% winners and 2.4% profit..

In excel set column E3 to =(A3*B3)-(C3*D3),
Make column a3 you profitable win%
Make column b3 your profit
Make column C3 your “hedge” win %
Make column D# your “hedge” loss %
Read you overall profit % in column E3.

This is just an academic exercise, since it’s almost impossible for most of us to gather the required data , statistically test and confirm a profitable system.

[cnollfan]

If I have a solid selection in one or two races and am rounding out a pick 3 or pick 4, I have tended to not do well if I use more than half the horses in a race that befuddles me. The couple I don't use seem to come in more than by chance. So, my rule is that if I can't whittle the contenders down to half the field or less, I either use "all," or manufacture a single out of the race and spread out elsewhere, or skip the multi-race gimmick altogether and just bet my horse.

I read somewhere (Dave Schwartz, I think) that assuming any modestly competent selection system, half plus one should cover most races quite nicely. But for my own psychology, half seems to be the cutoff point.

[Premier Turf Club]

How about laying a horse? That's betting against yourself; it's a wager on the rest of the field. Sometimes it's easier to throw out a false favorite than to identify who the winner will be.

BTW, you can lay horses easily with the new PTC dutching software.

[thespaah]

I hit the all button on occasion..It's not a bad thing. You can get burned though. Your winning bet in the case of a favorite being the winning number could cause a net loss. But that rarely hapens to me. I usually increase my base dollar amount on bets with favorites to ensure at least a small profit.

[rusrious]

If you lost $60,000 in a week then I am dating Pamela Anderson and cheating on her with Heather Locklear. :jump:

This is true.. But at ehorse, it's a fun account, or not real, like play money.. Thats where I practice at..