csmith
09-23-2007, 10:44 AM
*** PLEASE READ *** PLEASE READ *** *** PLEASE READ **********
THE SELECTIONS BELOW ARE A LISTING OF MY CONTENDERS TO BE USED IN EACH RACE.
USE THEM AS AN AID IN DOING YOUR OWN HANDICAPPING.
USE THEM IN YOUR EXOTICS OR ANY WAY YOU CHOOSE. IF YOU BET ALL THE
COMBINATIONS SHOWN YOU WILL PROBABLY BE A LOSER IN THE LONG TERM.BE SELECTIVE.
LOOK FOR OVERLAYS IN MAKING YOUR SELECTIONS.
A VERY GOOD METHOD FOR BETTING THESE CONTENDERS IS THE KELLY CRITERION OR
THE DUTCH BETTING SYSTEM, WHICH IN MY OPINION ARE THE BEST WAYS TO BET TO MAKE
A LONG TERM PROFIT
================================================== =======================
BM 09/23/2007
The order of the entries listing is based upon the fair odds line.
What we seek are contenders whose fair odds are better (lower)
than the AM line (or post-time) odds; i.e. overlays which may be
overlooked by the public. Only the top 4 are shown.
Race 1 - 6.0 Furlongs; D R 20000; Post Time is 3:45 Eastern Time
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed Our
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank Rating
3 PAPA'SSARA 2.2 1.8 304 25.3 430 9.3 1 4 79.9
2 GREEN LITE 2.5 3.0 304 25.3 235 9.8 2 1 82.8x
4 MINI TALES 2.9 2.0 691 24.9 786 32.8 5 5 81.1
5 POSITION O 3.4 8.0 265 14.0 460 14.1 4 2 77.7
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Race 2 - 9.0 Furlongs; D R 20000; Post Time is 4:16 Eastern Time
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed Our
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank Rating
3 NOTTINGHAM .8 2.0 691 24.9 786 32.8 2 1 85.7x
4 ANDOVER TH 1.8 5.0 691 24.9 285 11.9 1 2 75.8
2 SARARAH JR 5.9 2.5 47 19.1 534 14.8 5 3 78.9
5 TOPPERS MO 9.3 4.0 22 9.1 436 11.2 6 4 74.8
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Race 3 - 6.0 Furlongs; D C 4000 ; Post Time is 4:48 Eastern Time
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed Our
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank Rating
4 CHOSEN WIS 1.7 2.5 136 16.9 460 14.1 1 5 74.9
3 RECORD SMA 2.4 1.8 634 23.7 786 32.8 2 4 78.3x
5 ENGLISHMAN 2.5 2.0 263 25.5 235 9.8 3 3 76.7
6 SOUTHERN R 6.2 8.0 346 18.2 285 11.9 4 2 70.0
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Race 4 - 8.5 Furlongs; T A 31000; Post Time is 5:19 Eastern Time
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed Our
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank Rating
1 BETRLUCKYT 2.6 3.0 178 16.3 123 23.6 1 2 86.7
7 LADY IN LO 2.9 2.5 691 24.9 786 32.8 7 1 89.3x
4 MIZZY TOPP 4.2 4.0 263 25.5 460 14.1 3 3 85.6
3 COUNT ME T 4.3 15.0 76 5.3 436 11.2 2 7 63.7
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Race 5 - 8.0 Furlongs; D C 12500 ; Post Time is 5:49 Eastern Time
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed Our
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank Rating
1 DOUBLE JIM 1.7 5.0 104 16.3 285 11.9 1 2 76.5
4 SMOKE'N BL 1.9 1.8 167 16.8 430 9.3 2 1 80.0x
3 CALIFORNIA 4.1 6.0 346 18.2 123 23.6 3 5 76.2
2 LARRY KING 6.6 3.0 248 24.6 395 16.5 4 6 78.4
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Race 6 - 8.5 Furlongs; T S 30000; Post Time is 6:20 Eastern Time
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed Our
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank Rating
7 BRIAN THE 2.0 2.0 358 11.2 235 9.8 1 1 82.3
5 NOVELTY HI 2.0 4.0 121 9.1 457 22.5 5 2 83.4x
9 NAKISKA 6.7 20.0 86 10.5 491 15.1 2 4 68.3
8 SIBERZAR 7.1 2.5 634 23.7 786 32.8 8 8 79.9
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Race 7 - 5.5 Furlongs; D M 12500 ; Post Time is 6:50 Eastern Time
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed Our
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank Rating
7 VALLEYDARS 1.7 3.5 94 11.7 430 9.3 1 2 68.5
8 PACIFIC NO 1.9 4.5 384 15.9 123 23.6 2 5 73.0x
10 CALLING MI 3.2 6.0 104 16.3 285 11.9 7 1 67.8
9 MO MONEY H 6.6 15.0 364 24.2 122 6.6 5 3 65.8
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Race 8 - 7.5 Furlongs; T R 20000; Post Time is 7:20 Eastern Time
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed Our
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank Rating
1 RAPID ROMA 2.8 1.6 691 24.9 786 32.8 4 1 79.3x
8 THAINTY 2.9 8.0 43 9.3 337 10.7 2 2 61.8
5 A P BULLET 4.9 2.0 161 17.4 460 14.1 6 3 76.8
4 QUEEN CLYT 4.9 12.0 196 15.3 395 16.5 1 8 61.7
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Race 9 - 5.5 Furlongs; D C 4000 ; Post Time is 7:50 Eastern Time
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed Our
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank Rating
7 FOR AN OCC 2.1 3.5 30 26.7 123 23.6 1 3 77.0x
1 ARTIST'S C 3.2 6.0 35 20.0 460 14.1 3 2 72.9
5 LAZER PARK 4.5 2.5 346 18.2 285 11.9 4 5 73.5
4 ABBEYS RUN 4.7 1.8 21 19.0 122 6.6 5 1 75.2
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THE SELECTIONS BELOW ARE A LISTING OF MY CONTENDERS TO BE USED IN EACH RACE.
USE THEM AS AN AID IN DOING YOUR OWN HANDICAPPING.
USE THEM IN YOUR EXOTICS OR ANY WAY YOU CHOOSE. IF YOU BET ALL THE
COMBINATIONS SHOWN YOU WILL PROBABLY BE A LOSER IN THE LONG TERM.BE SELECTIVE.
LOOK FOR OVERLAYS IN MAKING YOUR SELECTIONS.
A VERY GOOD METHOD FOR BETTING THESE CONTENDERS IS THE KELLY CRITERION OR
THE DUTCH BETTING SYSTEM, WHICH IN MY OPINION ARE THE BEST WAYS TO BET TO MAKE
A LONG TERM PROFIT
================================================== =======================
BM 09/23/2007
The order of the entries listing is based upon the fair odds line.
What we seek are contenders whose fair odds are better (lower)
than the AM line (or post-time) odds; i.e. overlays which may be
overlooked by the public. Only the top 4 are shown.
Race 1 - 6.0 Furlongs; D R 20000; Post Time is 3:45 Eastern Time
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed Our
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank Rating
3 PAPA'SSARA 2.2 1.8 304 25.3 430 9.3 1 4 79.9
2 GREEN LITE 2.5 3.0 304 25.3 235 9.8 2 1 82.8x
4 MINI TALES 2.9 2.0 691 24.9 786 32.8 5 5 81.1
5 POSITION O 3.4 8.0 265 14.0 460 14.1 4 2 77.7
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 2 - 9.0 Furlongs; D R 20000; Post Time is 4:16 Eastern Time
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed Our
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank Rating
3 NOTTINGHAM .8 2.0 691 24.9 786 32.8 2 1 85.7x
4 ANDOVER TH 1.8 5.0 691 24.9 285 11.9 1 2 75.8
2 SARARAH JR 5.9 2.5 47 19.1 534 14.8 5 3 78.9
5 TOPPERS MO 9.3 4.0 22 9.1 436 11.2 6 4 74.8
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 3 - 6.0 Furlongs; D C 4000 ; Post Time is 4:48 Eastern Time
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed Our
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank Rating
4 CHOSEN WIS 1.7 2.5 136 16.9 460 14.1 1 5 74.9
3 RECORD SMA 2.4 1.8 634 23.7 786 32.8 2 4 78.3x
5 ENGLISHMAN 2.5 2.0 263 25.5 235 9.8 3 3 76.7
6 SOUTHERN R 6.2 8.0 346 18.2 285 11.9 4 2 70.0
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 4 - 8.5 Furlongs; T A 31000; Post Time is 5:19 Eastern Time
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed Our
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank Rating
1 BETRLUCKYT 2.6 3.0 178 16.3 123 23.6 1 2 86.7
7 LADY IN LO 2.9 2.5 691 24.9 786 32.8 7 1 89.3x
4 MIZZY TOPP 4.2 4.0 263 25.5 460 14.1 3 3 85.6
3 COUNT ME T 4.3 15.0 76 5.3 436 11.2 2 7 63.7
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 5 - 8.0 Furlongs; D C 12500 ; Post Time is 5:49 Eastern Time
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed Our
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank Rating
1 DOUBLE JIM 1.7 5.0 104 16.3 285 11.9 1 2 76.5
4 SMOKE'N BL 1.9 1.8 167 16.8 430 9.3 2 1 80.0x
3 CALIFORNIA 4.1 6.0 346 18.2 123 23.6 3 5 76.2
2 LARRY KING 6.6 3.0 248 24.6 395 16.5 4 6 78.4
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 6 - 8.5 Furlongs; T S 30000; Post Time is 6:20 Eastern Time
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed Our
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank Rating
7 BRIAN THE 2.0 2.0 358 11.2 235 9.8 1 1 82.3
5 NOVELTY HI 2.0 4.0 121 9.1 457 22.5 5 2 83.4x
9 NAKISKA 6.7 20.0 86 10.5 491 15.1 2 4 68.3
8 SIBERZAR 7.1 2.5 634 23.7 786 32.8 8 8 79.9
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 7 - 5.5 Furlongs; D M 12500 ; Post Time is 6:50 Eastern Time
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed Our
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank Rating
7 VALLEYDARS 1.7 3.5 94 11.7 430 9.3 1 2 68.5
8 PACIFIC NO 1.9 4.5 384 15.9 123 23.6 2 5 73.0x
10 CALLING MI 3.2 6.0 104 16.3 285 11.9 7 1 67.8
9 MO MONEY H 6.6 15.0 364 24.2 122 6.6 5 3 65.8
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 8 - 7.5 Furlongs; T R 20000; Post Time is 7:20 Eastern Time
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed Our
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank Rating
1 RAPID ROMA 2.8 1.6 691 24.9 786 32.8 4 1 79.3x
8 THAINTY 2.9 8.0 43 9.3 337 10.7 2 2 61.8
5 A P BULLET 4.9 2.0 161 17.4 460 14.1 6 3 76.8
4 QUEEN CLYT 4.9 12.0 196 15.3 395 16.5 1 8 61.7
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Race 9 - 5.5 Furlongs; D C 4000 ; Post Time is 7:50 Eastern Time
Fair ML Trainer Jockey Early Speed Late Speed Our
Pgm# Horse Odds Odds Sts Win% Sts Win% Rank Rank Rating
7 FOR AN OCC 2.1 3.5 30 26.7 123 23.6 1 3 77.0x
1 ARTIST'S C 3.2 6.0 35 20.0 460 14.1 3 2 72.9
5 LAZER PARK 4.5 2.5 346 18.2 285 11.9 4 5 73.5
4 ABBEYS RUN 4.7 1.8 21 19.0 122 6.6 5 1 75.2
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