How many pros out there?

[badcompany]

I'm talking about people whose primary source of income is wagering on horses and who make at least an average income (40-50K a yr).

I'm assuming they're out there, but, in 25 yrs of horse playing, I've never met one.

[SignUpKing]

I'm talking about people whose primary source of income is wagering on horses and who make at least an average income (40-50K a yr).

I'm assuming they're out there, but, in 25 yrs of horse playing, I've never met one.

Betting on horses is not my primary source of income, but I make at least the amount you suggest wagering on horses. Have been for over 20 years now. Lost consistently the first 10 years I worked the ponies -- notice, I didn't use the word "play" -- but I started to recognize patterns, and then I began to win consistently: patterns in running lines, patterns in trainer stats.

By the way, you can still find prices. Some guys cry that there are no more price horses, but price horses win every day at every track. You just need to know what to look for. Me, I have an arsenal of pattern-recognition plays, and when I see them I bet them.

I focus on just two tracks a day, and usually I try to crush 1-3 races per card. Some days, there are no plays. I focus on races when the public is wrong and when the "sharpies" are wrong.

[Pell Mell]

Now you've met another one.:) :)

[K9Pup]

I'm talking about people whose primary source of income is wagering on horses and who make at least an average income (40-50K a yr).

I'm assuming they're out there, but, in 25 yrs of horse playing, I've never met one.

I think you need to reconsider your income level for "pro". A person making $50k a year with NO benefits is not going to have a very high standard of living. No paid vacation, no medical insurance or any of the other benefits a "normal" job might provide. I've heard estimates that benefits add 25-30% to the compensation package. So a person working a real job at $50k is really being compensated more like $75k.

[judd]

besides, you can beat a race but cant beat the races

[nobeyerspls]

I'm talking about people whose primary source of income is wagering on horses and who make at least an average income (40-50K a yr).

I'm assuming they're out there, but, in 25 yrs of horse playing, I've never met one.

Here's a story about that. I worked in a bank trust department with a guy who loved to fish. He'd go after work and every weekend. Finally he found the courage to quit the day job, buy a boat, and become a fishing guide. Eventually he grew to hate it because when it became a job it was no longer fun.
I'm retired now and don't need any money from wagering. Whatever I win pays for entertainment and the rest goes to charity but I don't win at the level you cited. Those who are doing this for a living are making much more than $50k and some of it is coming from rebates.

[prospector]

when i lived in vegas i met 3 pros who played almost everyday...they treated it like a job..they had their set rules and never strayed...no "feel good" or "hunch" bets for them..they rarely lost over the day..maybe a race or two, but not the day...nice guys, but lonely guys...hard life back then..but lots of comps with what they were betting..

[gIracing]

I don't have to beat the races, I jus thave to beat you.

[gIracing]

I get a kick everytime I see this question. LIke osmeone is going to say "yeah, come on and learn how to take money out my pocket"

In a game where I am pinned against you because of para-mutal wagering, I have no reason to tell you jack squat.

You keep thinking that it's not possible, and keep posting so you feel better when you loose that you aren't the only one loosing.

can it be done? sure. they are scattered around. you treat it like any other business. 90% of all businesses fail... 95%ish people who go to the track loose money.. I dont' see a difference.

with that said.. Look up the Austrailian horse Stardust... he ran in the BC Classic a couple of years back.. his owner was a professional handicapper who became a millionare betting the races.. they even had like a 5 mintue spot about it before the races.. wasn't a bad horse.. went off at like 8 to 1.

Alot of people don't know this.. Mr. rooney.. the Pittsburgh steelers mr. Rooney.. kept the Steelers afloat when they were just born by going to the track and cleaning the place out. There are various articles about it on the internet. Might be the best handicapper in the20th centery.. the amount of money he won was ungodly.


You are asking the question to the wrong group of people. If you want to see a professional handicapper, go to a damn track. That's the sole reason you do it, because you love the sport, not math. handicapping is not a mathmatical equation.

[DanG]

No disrespect meant Judd; you may have posted this tongue & cheek for all I know.

besides, you can beat a race but cant beat the races
In a sport riddled with dated theories and wives' tales, this may be the most incorrect of them all. It’s actually the exact opposite.

badcompany ~ I'm talking about people whose primary source of income is wagering on horses and who make at least an average income (40-50K a yr).
I'm assuming they're out there, but, in 25 yrs of horse playing, I've never met one.
This year at Saratoga was the retirement party for a pro-player of roughly 40+ years. As far as I know racing was his only source of income for his adult life. He bought real estate with his major scores and is very comfortable and is his family.

I bring him up because many people say they have never met a pro-player and therefore (understandably) deny their existence. The entire two weeks at the Spa no one came up to this man to say hello. Outside of his family, our group and a handful of acquaintances he is completely anonymous. In my experience is he is not unique in that regard.

[46zilzal]

I'm talking about people whose primary source of income is wagering on horses and who make at least an average income (40-50K a yr).

I'm assuming they're out there, but, in 25 yrs of horse playing, I've never met one.
They are very quiet, unassuming business like people without a braggidoccio bone in their body...Those are several reasons you never know WHO they are.

[shanta]

They are very quiet, unassuming business like people without a braggidoccio bone in their body...Those are several reasons you never know WHO they are.

Painting the picture with too broad a stroke.

Andy Beyer
Cj
Marion Jones

are 3 who come to me off the top of my head who are good,know it and will tell you they are.

[46zilzal]

Andy Beyer
Cj
Marion Jones

are 3 who come to me off the top of my head who are good,know it and will tell you they are.

When you have been around to as many race courses and as many race patrons and facilities as I have, THEN you can make assumptions about the WHOLE based upon limited perspectives. A few in the big fish bowl (who make part of their salary by writing) do not describe the reality.

According to my source at the NYRA, there are about 5 players who make up about 40% of the on course handle on most days. When they are not there for a few days, someone calls them to see if they are all right.

[shanta]

When you have been around to as many race courses and as many race patrons and facilities as I have, THEN you can make assumptions about the WHOLE

NOOOO
I can make assumptions based on what I see and know to be factual. You and your opines are just that. Yours. Nothing more and nothing less. same as me.

:)

[46zilzal]

Let's see who works in the industry and who observes?

[DJofSD]

Marion Jones

My word, is he still alive and kicking?

[shanta]

My word, is he still alive and kicking?

YES he is Dj and still kicking ass and taking names too! lol

[cj's dad]

Painting the picture with too broad a stroke.

Andy Beyer
Cj
Marion Jones

are 3 who come to me off the top of my head who are good,know it and will tell you they are.

Gee, I've been around CJ for a few years now and though he is good at h'cappin and I'm sure he feels comfortable in his betting strategies I have never known him to "boast" about his accomplishments.

Just my opininon :)

[46zilzal]

According to the mutuels manager, there is a special program within the betting scheme where they can isolate betting patterns and often, but not always, can tell if a big bettor (i.e. Peter R. or his agent at Hastings) is on course on any given day. This same program looks for betting irregularities. In the late 90's this fellow bet over $70,000 to get the old Sweep 6 (local version of the Pick 6) and it took almost 45 minutes for all the bets to go in.

This program, or one like it, was shown of Frontline's The Other Side of the Track many years ago.

[badcompany]

[QUOTE=gIracing]I get a kick everytime I see this question. LIke osmeone is going to say "yeah, come on and learn how to take money out my pocket"

In a game where I am pinned against you because of para-mutal wagering, I have no reason to tell you jack squat.

You keep thinking that it's not possible, and keep posting so you feel better when you loose that you aren't the only one loosing.

can it be done? sure. they are scattered around. you treat it like any other business. 90% of all businesses fail... 95%ish people who go to the track loose money.. I dont' see a difference.
[QUOTE]

Who's asking anyone how they do it? I'm asking if they actually exist, and in what numbers.

As far as your business example, I do see a difference. While 90% of businesses fail, that doesn't mean that 90% of business people fail. They can have several businesses fail and still be successful with the one that succeeds.

[shanta]

Gee, I've been around CJ for a few years now and though he is good at h'cappin and I'm sure he feels comfortable in his betting strategies I have never known him to "boast" about his accomplishments.

Just my opininon :)

So when he posted a $100 win ticket on a horse paying 90/1 that's not boasting? ok.

EVERY good player I know is cocky to some respect and while i am not in the industry I feel very comfortable in what I posted. Most when you take them aside and ask them will tel you they are good man.

Being COCKY about one's talent in this business is a GOOD thing. If you read something else into my post that is because the typed word never reflects INTENTION.

Your son is both good and cocky. To me a good thing.
Richie

[cj's dad]

So when he posted a $100 win ticket on a horse paying 90/1 that's not boasting?
Richie

Don't know the circumstances, but I would wager it had something to do with the venom of some of the #'s bashers on this site.

[DJofSD]

The only rule of thumb I've ever heard about scoring and bragging was something like if it is 10% or more of your annual take down then you're entitled otherwise keep it to yourself.

[GaryG]

Being COCKY about one's talent in this business is a GOOD thing. In the immortal words of Mac Davis...Oh Lord it's hard to be humble when you're perfect in every way.

[46zilzal]

Howard Sartin's mantra was "consistency, corollaries CONFIDENCE."

[HorseRun]

$50,000 a Year CASH is a pretty good year in my book

[GaryG]

Did Mac Davis know zilly??

[badcompany]

The only rule of thumb I've ever heard about scoring and bragging was something like if it is 10% or more of your annual take down then you're entitled otherwise keep it to yourself.

This summer, I was in the Saratoga racino. After a race, a guy goes into a way, way over-the-top celebration: arms extended in the air, a victory lap, and yelling "Yeah baby!!" and "Woooo" about 20 times. When he finally went to the window to cash, I was about to bet. So, I got on line behind him so I could see his score. Turns out he had 1/2 of a $230 tri, for a grand total of $115.

[DanG]

The only rule of thumb I've ever heard about scoring and bragging was something like if it is 10% or more of your annual take down then you're entitled otherwise keep it to yourself.
Yes DJ;

The famous Beyer rule of gambling. At 10% you can drop to your knees and proclaim…”I’m king of the world”. :jump:

Of course if your DQ’d from a score you can punch a hole in the press box wall as Beyer did at Gulfstream too! :D
badcompany ~ This summer, I was in the Saratoga racino. After a race, a guy goes into a way, way over-the-top celebration: arms extended in the air, a victory lap, and yelling "Yeah baby!!" and "Woooo" about 20 times. When he finally went to the window to cash, I was about to bet. So, I got on line behind him so I could see his score. Turns out he had 1/2 of a $230 tri, for a grand total of $115.
Let’s give him the benefit of the doubt BC. Perhaps his annual income is $1,150 clams! :)

[SignUpKing]

besides, you can beat a race but cant beat the races

Actually, it is the other way around. Do not count on beating any single race. The skilled, however, can beat the races.

My mind set: I am trying to beat other horse players, not the races per se. I exploit weaknesses of other players.

If that classic quote is truly your mindset, do not ever make another wager.

[Robert Fischer]

it can't be done. :p

[SignUpKing]

it can't be done. :p

. . . BY YOU !!!

[Robert Fischer]

. . . BY YOU !!!

I would only need a rich man , a wise man , and a jockey ;)

[boomman]

Yes DJ;

The famous Beyer rule of gambling. At 10% you can drop to your knees and proclaim…”I’m king of the world”. :jump:

Of course if your DQ’d from a score you can punch a hole in the press box wall as Beyer did at Gulfstream too!

Let’s give him the benefit of the doubt BC. Perhaps his annual income is $1,150 clams! :)

Once again the EXACT same thought comes to my mind that Dan G Posts!:) It is usually a good rule of thumb that the louder a guy is cheering, the smaller the ticket:bang: and it drives me up that wall!:D

Boomer

[GaryG]

It is usually a good rule of thumb that the louder a guy is cheering, the smaller the ticket. I guess I am used to it....see it all the time at my rural OTB in Scott Co. VA.

[Overlay]

I generally give other folks a pretty wide berth in regard to how they choose to react to a score of any given size. I figure that's where lasting memories (and needed replenishment of the lifelong fan base) come from.

[NoDayJob]

Can raise @ least $1,000,000 in cash overnight, without mortgaging his house, stocks or anything else, while maintaining his/her present life style. :lol:

[Cratos]

I'm talking about people whose primary source of income is wagering on horses and who make at least an average income (40-50K a yr).

I'm assuming they're out there, but, in 25 yrs of horse playing, I've never met one.


The fun and reward in winning at this game is the silence of the cash and anonymity of self.

[GaryG]

I thought this thread would degenerate into chest thumping. Glad to see it hasn't.

[Grits]

This summer, I was in the Saratoga racino. After a race, a guy goes into a way, way over-the-top celebration: arms extended in the air, a victory lap, and yelling "Yeah baby!!" and "Woooo" about 20 times. When he finally went to the window to cash, I was about to bet. So, I got on line behind him so I could see his score. Turns out he had 1/2 of a $230 tri, for a grand total of $115.

I was told years ago by a longtime horseplayer to never, ever, behave like this in public.

Because when you lose--and you WILL LOSE, you have to commit suicide.

[alysheba88]

Is it me or do more people get wrong "loose" when they mean "lose" more than any other word?

[JustRalph]

Is it me or do more people get wrong "loose" when they mean "lose" more than any other word?

you're paying way too :lol: much attention

[Kelso]

when i lived in vegas i met 3 pros who played almost everyday...they treated it like a job..they had their set rules and never strayed...no "feel good" or "hunch" bets for them..they rarely lost over the day


Any idea how many races each would bet in a typical day? Were they doing an 8-hour, 5-day schedule?

Thank you.

[Kelso]

In the late 90's this fellow bet over $70,000 to get the old Sweep 6 (local version of the Pick 6) and it took almost 45 minutes for all the bets to go in.


ZZ,
I take it this means he parceled out his many tickets.

Since there are no horizontal will-pays available to tip off the public until it's too late to bet them, why wouldn't this whale just plunk down the whole $70K at once?

Thank you.

[Kelso]

I generally give other folks a pretty wide berth in regard to how they choose to react to a score of any given size. I figure that's where lasting memories (and needed replenishment of the lifelong fan base) come from.

Last year I saw a guy run down an aisle of the grandstand apron at MTH and almost jump the rail as his 37-1 shot took the lead in the stretch and held on. He was whoopin' and hollerin' all the way.

I didn't care if he had only 10% of a $2 ticket. At 37-1, he deserved to get excited, and it allowed me to enjoy the moment with him.:jump: :jump:

[prospector]

Any idea how many races each would bet in a typical day? Were they doing an 8-hour, 5-day schedule?

Thank you.
they never played more than 3-5 races a day..all from the same track..just picked their races..
one was a wiz at maryland tracks, jimmy played only altantic city and garden state..i saw him hit a $200 house quinella one night at the horseshoe...paid him $64,000...not a bad night...had to be a boat race,,he never bet more than $20 3 horse quinella bets before..and then he bet a $200 house q on the 3 longest horses in the race...
the other guy was a real puzzle..he was some kind of tote board bettor...he'd come in and watch the tv monitors for up to 10 mins and place $100 to show on some horse...tracks didn't seem to matter to him...he'd play up to 4 and then go..never seen him bet more than 4 races..only saw him lose one race..one...i tried to figure out what he was looking at...never did..sure wish i knew..asked him after about 3 months and he just smiled at me and said, "its all numbers" :bang:

[whobet]

All of the below are true, I have only meet one gentleman that was a Pro,
I didn't find him, he found me, cause I was using this old computer with floppy drives,
we became best friends,
and he was interested in automating his patterns,
he was also into artifical intelligence.
He was the smartest man I ever have meet,
but he was like all the below staements, and he made his living by betting the horses.
In the end, he computerized, and as far as I am concerned,
he became a hermit, and I missed him.
Then he had congestive heart failure,
and only could come to the track, about 3 times in the last year, and always would call me to make sure I would be there.
And once he was there, he told me he missed the track very much.
Even though he was making money from the internet.
If you are a PRO, you don't ever BOAST or do anything to bring attention to yourself,
but the tellers at LAUREL knew who he was.
Because, back then you cashed bets via the tellers,
he told me they would say, "He's here again",
One day he had a longshot that fit his pattern,
and he bet it, and the odds kept going up,
so he bet it again, and the horse won, and he made enough money to buy a Jaguar,
which he always wanted.

The last year where he was active and playing at home,
towards the end of the year, I asked him how he was doing,
he said he lost $200,000,
I asked him how that could happen to him,
he said, "because he became over confident with his computer betting",
but still won $200,000 foro the year.
__________________________________________________ _________________________
but I started to recognize patterns, and then I began to win consistently: patterns in running lines, patterns in trainer stats.

they treated it like a job..they had their set rules and never strayed...
no "feel good" or "hunch" bets for them..they rarely lost over the day..maybe a race or two, but not the day...nice guys, but lonely guys...hard life back then

I have no reason to tell you jack squat

They are very quiet, unassuming business like people without a braggidoccio bone in their body...Those are several reasons you never know WHO they are.

[Dave Schwartz]

They are very quiet, unassuming business like people without a braggidoccio bone in their body...Those are several reasons you never know WHO they are.

Funny, but my experience does not match yours.

While the great majority of the "professional-level" players I know do not openly discuss how they do what they do, several of them are very much "live characters" with a whole lot of braggadoccio.

Personally, I believe that that type of player really gets off living in a world where they do something that most others can only wish for. Arrogance? You bet. Sometimes success breeds that.

I have also found that the more successful one is, the more likely they are to spend time helping lesser players. That does not mean they "soapbox" nor does it mean that they give away the secrets that they feel make them successful.

I cite Tom Brohamer as just such an example.


One player in particular (who is now retired from racing) had a public persona that was quite different from his private one. I recall having a quiet conversation in a race book with him once when someone who knew of him came up to converse. He immediately shifted to this public personality that was more like W.C. Fields than the friend I know.


IMHO, one of the biggest problems to learning this game is that very few players have the opportunity to learn from a winning player.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[riskman]

[QUOTE=Dave Schwartz]
"IMHO, one of the biggest problems to learning this game is that very few players have the opportunity to learn from a winning player".

I also find that losing players do not believe that one can actually earn a profit from horse wagering. I know many excellent cappers that refuse to keep records and that practice poor money management. In the end, they always find an excuse for their behavior.

[badcompany]

I generally give other folks a pretty wide berth in regard to how they choose to react to a score of any given size. I figure that's where lasting memories (and needed replenishment of the lifelong fan base) come from.

One could also posit that these types of people have an off-putting effect on other potential players. Most people lose most races. So, an over-the-top celebration, for all intents and purposes, is rubbing peoples' noses in it.

I believe it was the great running back Barry Sanders who made this statement regarding endzone celebrations, "Act like you've been there, before."

[dav4463]

Is it me or do more people get wrong "loose" when they mean "lose" more than any other word?



people who can't write good or talk good are loosers.

[bigmack]

As I've often done, I akin the game to the vagaries of golf and other confounding endeavors I engage in as surfing & chess. I know that all are tough to master and most certainly will occasionally beat you down with the strong arm of their fickle, humbling nature. Some level of arrogance helps (once one reaches a certain level) but oftentimes it's the quiet, churn along style that bodes well towards success as the failures are plenty and the victories are few. I just ask the victories to be overlays.

[Sailwolf]

I wish Barry Meadows would weigh in on this topic. I think his comments would

say there are pros who make a living at the races, him included

[Pell Mell]

I have been making a living at this game for over 40 yrs. I'm not rich, I live in a modest home, but am able to enjoy my pursuits of life. The only reason I post here is to try to give some hints to players who are consistent losers. My approach is quite simple, I don't go into a lot of numbers and pace figures and such. Even if I wanted to I couldn't teach anyone to handicap the way I do. My success comes from an understanding of animals and how they react to different conditions. Many years ago I met the great trainer Hirsch Jacobs at a convention for pigeon fanciers. He raced homing pigeons for years before getting into training horses and I also raced pigeons most of my life. When I questioned him about horses he asked me if I had any success at pigeon racing and I said I did very good. He then went on to tell me that the same principals of conditioning and racing pigeons applied to horses. My stock in trade is being able to anticipate when a horse is going to throw a big race. I'm not right all the time but I score with a lot of 20-50/1 longshots. The only records I keep are the folding ones in my pocket. My big weakness is to try to find plays when there are none and I am also a bad money manager as I tend to take a lot of shots at big scores but I do score some big ones. One of the saddest things I used to see at the track was the stoopers. They are there every day and I would even see some of them dragging a little kid around because they were supposed to be home watching the kids while the poor wife was out working. Very sad:(

There are so many ways to lose at this game and there are mighty few who can get a handle on how horses are handled and how races are run. This is just an old man's opinion and if you disagree I hope you are a winner in your own style.:ThmbUp:

[shanta]

I know 3 winning players personally.

Not talking "guys you read about" personally. Talking about "call them up anytime and chat" personally. 2 are big bettors while the 3rd is not.

They all work races and have strategies different from each other.

They have 2 things in common:
1) They have NO rules on anything regarding the handicapping of races.
2) They all stress the importance of NEVER over betting one's bankroll.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I knew a professional player for years that simply was the most organized and disciplined person I have ever seen at the race track.He waited for an advantage situation with incredible patience.I believe (though I am not certain)
that he averaged two or three wagers on a daily basis.

His money management principles were his expertise, he was a master of gaining the most profit for any wager with his proven techniques.He was mainly a win bettor but he made selective exotic bets that were the source of some "real" profits.

In 1986 the New York Post newspaper ran an article on this man and two other 'pros' in New York, though his name was not revealed. In the article he stated that he was not at all interested in the sport, he was interested in success and was driven to succeed.

Through the years I met him generally on weekends at the track and he would teach me a few odds and ends (however) never giving up the methodologies that he had perfected. I had learned never to interfere with a man and his business and this is the reason that I did not ask about his methods.

He has since passed on but I will alway's remember the man and his professional approach to earning a living at the track.

Zappi

[cj]

I wish Barry Meadows would weigh in on this topic. I think his comments would

say there are pros who make a living at the races, him included

Maybe you will have better luck if you get his name right. ;)

(Meadow)

[Greyfox]

Maybe you will have better luck if you get his name right. ;)

(Meadow)

Good point cj.
I note where this contributor to this forum also has been written up on Wikipedia. Interesting read at:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Meadow

[Pace Cap'n]

Well, "akin" is now a verb.

Just thought it worth mentioning since seldom does one see an adjective make such a jump in class.

[DanG]

Funny, but my experience does not match yours.

While the great majority of the "professional-level" players I know do not openly discuss how they do what they do, several of them are very much "live characters" with a whole lot of braggadoccio.

Personally, I believe that that type of player really gets off living in a world where they do something that most others can only wish for. Arrogance? You bet. Sometimes success breeds that.

I have also found that the more successful one is, the more likely they are to spend time helping lesser players. That does not mean they "soapbox" nor does it mean that they give away the secrets that they feel make them successful.

I cite Tom Brohamer as just such an example.


One player in particular (who is now retired from racing) had a public persona that was quite different from his private one. I recall having a quiet conversation in a race book with him once when someone who knew of him came up to converse. He immediately shifted to this public personality that was more like W.C. Fields than the friend I know.


IMHO, one of the biggest problems to learning this game is that very few players have the opportunity to learn from a winning player.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz
This is my experience as well David.

Tremendous ego’s in this game and when one succeeds against long odds sometimes their ego becomes the size of Barry Bonds head.

I am so thankful I stumbled on a group of people who have personalities that match my own. I don’t react well to arrogance even though my X-wife has told me I do enjoy the last word in debate as the amount I post proves. Very unassuming gentleman in our group and one short story illustrates that.

Shortly after we met I was on what felt like a “probationary period” with them. They had lost their 4th partner (as we have now) and were seeking someone out. Turns out they were observing me at the Palms and thought I was serious enough and had a demeanor that would work within the group. They asked me to join and although the leader never openly said it was a trial run, it certainty felt that way.

As fate would have it we hit a significant 6 figure pick-6 and one of my turf selections was the key bust out horse. That cemented the partnership in my mind and I’ll never forget the last leg. The race was not in question and we won by open lengths, but the other two gentleman (one was not there) barely turned a hair. I’m not sure what I said, but I remember my heart racing like Mario Andretti.

Later; the 4 of us were having dinner and discussing our good fortune and I asked one of them “Do you always show so little emotion when that much money is on the line?” He answered…”If I didn’t it could lead to great depression during the inevitable losses” (Is “losses correct?) :D It’s not for everyone and I frankly miss some of the crazy characters at live racing.

On last story on a laugh I shared with Steve Fierro at the Reno Hilton.

Some young guy hit the house Q for $100 it was something like 3/5 over 1/1 and paid $3.20. This guy ran around this place telling everyone and their mother that he had for $100 and Steve was laughing hysterically. I love to watch that kind of behavior, but I just wouldn’t want to be financially on the hook with them.

[cj's dad]

[QUOTE=whobet]
but the tellers at LAUREL knew who he was.


__________________________________________________ _________________________
Question: was he the tall, thin guy who chainsmoked and hung out 1st floor clubhouse corner of the bar and when the smoking ban was instituted he moved to the smoking room 1st floor grandstand???

Haven't seen this guy for years !

[silverfox]

You hit it on the button.Horsr players die broke.

[badcompany]

So, what we've learned from this thread is that professional horseplayers, if they actually exist, are quiet, unassuming braggadoccios.:)

[GaryG]

So, what we've learned from this thread is that professional horseplayers, if they actually exist, are quiet, unassuming braggadoccios.:)Yes, just like a cross section of lawyers (gasp), airline pilots or construction workers. They work at the track as well on their home computer, in all sections of the country and with various educational backgrounds.

[badcompany]

I remember once at the Meadowlands, I saw a guy going through a garbage can looking for thrown out tickets that might be winners.

Someone who recognized the guy walks up to him and says, "How ya doin?"

The guy pulls his head out of the garbage can, looks angrily at the guy who asked the question, and says, "How do you think I'm doin'?"

[Grits]

IMHO, one of the biggest problems to learning this game is that very few players have the opportunity to learn from a winning player.


As many books as have been written in the last 20 years about handicapping and wagering--to a degree--I would question this particular opinion. Horseplayers have shared their skill and some of their secrets, all of which though, differ. And what works for each of them, certainly, may or may not work for you or for me--as it is, indeed, not a universal science.

For those that do play professionally, I believe they choose their level of profile, be it--high or low. And that profile, probably goes along the lines of one's personality, as a whole. I would think it difficult to turn this on and off easily, still if one can and does--that can be good.

One thing I do believe possible about pros is that they know their friends, as opposed to those who attempt to befriend them, simply, due to their reputation, their skill, their action.

I think most good players fall into two scenarios.

Those who are within a small, tight, coterie known, primarily, to one another, and rightfully so.

Also, the player who goes about his gig, solo, each day. Again, rightfully so.

Both are about preference.

No one enjoys being used in this life. And I respect anyone that is able to recognize such. And most, I would think, are.

If you are ever fortunate enough to have one as a friend--first. You have a diamond in hand.

Its a great game, but an extremely difficult one.

[Dave Schwartz]

As many books as have been written in the last 20 years about handicapping and wagering--to a degree--I would question this particular opinion. Horseplayers have shared their skill and some of their secrets, all of which though, differ. And what works for each of them, certainly, may or may not work for you or for me--as it is, indeed, not a universal science.

There is a significant difference between learning from a book and being taught by one who is actually doing it.

There are plenty of golf pros offering instruction. My belief is that one would develop far faster/better if Tiger Woods was meeting with them once a week.

The club pro can teach you to play golf. Tiger Woods can teach you to be world class.

Make no mistake... in order to win at horse racing you must be a world class player.


Just my not-so-humble-(on this topic) opinion.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Grits]

I am aware of what you are stating--one on one mentoring is excellent. Nothing can compare to it.

I'm not sure golf is a fair analogy,though,to horseplaying. And that has to do with the churn thing.

A great amount of "world class" is, to me, NOT learned behavior. It is born. It lies there within us, quietly in wait; until that time, at which it is unleashed.

I very much believe this.

[Rook]

You hit it on the button.Horse players die broke.

I've done my best to refrain from this thread and become as GaryG eloquently put it a "chest thumper" but there is no cliche that is more damaging to the sport than the one Silverfox spouted.

I invite him and anyone else who believes that nonsense to spend a day with me and permanently cure them of that erroneous belief.

Being a professional horseplayer requires just 3 things: intelligence, a strong work ethic and a willingness to take risks.

[Tee]

The ultimate goal of a golfer is to become their own coach. This I'm guessing is what Tiger has done to an extent through the years starting with his father and now with Hank Haney & everyone in between.

If I'm looking to improve my mechanics I'm not going to go see Tiger Woods. I'd much rather get my instruction from say Jim Flick or Mike Malaska.

Course management issues, how to compete/win on the Tour - now that imo is where talking to Tiger comes into play.

The only thing I can really pinpoint that is similar comparing playing tournament golf & playing the horses is trial by fire. Play a bunch, perhaps get your teeth kicked in a bit. Constantly glean information from each experience - find your comfort zone. Don't try to reinvent the wheel when things aren't at their best. Analyze what you are doing right, analyze the mistakes. Take it to the range & work the kinks out day to day. With all that hard work, sooner than you think success will be right in front of your face.

IMO there are some things that just can't be taught - that is where you see world class.



There is a significant difference between learning from a book and being taught by one who is actually doing it.

There are plenty of golf pros offering instruction. My belief is that one would develop far faster/better if Tiger Woods was meeting with them once a week.

The club pro can teach you to play golf. Tiger Woods can teach you to be world class.

Make no mistake... in order to win at horse racing you must be a world class player.


Just my not-so-humble-(on this topic) opinion.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[john del riccio]

I've done my best to refrain from this thread and become as GaryG eloquently put it a "chest thumper" but there is no cliche that is more damaging to the sport than the one Silverfox spouted.

I invite him and anyone else who believes that nonsense to spend a day with me and permanently cure them of that erroneous belief.

Being a professional horseplayer requires just 3 things: intelligence, a strong work ethic and a willingness to take risks.

rook,

i couldn't agree more and the willingness to take risks borders on having no fear. it sounds over the top but i think being decisive requires having "a set".....

john

[K9Pup]

$50,000 a Year CASH is a pretty good year in my book

I guess each of us has their own level of "living. And a pro players making $50k a year really wouldn't have $50k CASH. You do realize they have to file income tax returns just like everyone else that WORKS?

[cj]

I guess each of us has their own level of "living. And a pro players making $50k a year really wouldn't have $50k CASH. You do realize they have to file income tax returns just like everyone else that WORKS?

And waiters have to claim all their tips.

[Sailwolf]

And waiters have to claim all their tips.


At least 8% if not more. IRS has been clamping down on the restaurant industry

[Sailwolf]

I guess each of us has their own level of "living. And a pro players making $50k a year really wouldn't have $50k CASH. You do realize they have to file income tax returns just like everyone else that WORKS?

IRS has been conducting "lifestyle" audits in the last 12 months

[K9Pup]

And waiters have to claim all their tips.

Well I suspect that a person who lists their occupation as "professional gambler" wouldn't be allowed to file returns for many years if they show no profit. Of course they may not report the EXACT amount they win, but I'm guessing they better keep really good records in case of an audit.

[Topcat]

And waiters have to claim all their tips.

Horseplayers out to be able deduct all their "tips" <G>

At least that is the way horseplaying tips have worked out for me.

[JustRalph]

Being a professional horseplayer requires just 3 things: intelligence, a strong work ethic and a willingness to take risks.

Ah, the secret of life reveals itself once again..........this applies to everything you do................not just the ponies............

[robert99]

In the land of the free, we pay zilch tax and 3-5% take out max.
We can lay to lose, as well as bet to win, most anywhere in the World.
Professional gamblers increase in numbers year on year.
Few would survive in USA.

[njcurveball]

IRS has been conducting "lifestyle" audits in the last 12 months

DO you work for the IRS?

[whobet]

As I've often done, I akin the game to the vagaries of golf and other confounding endeavors I engage in as surfing & chess. I know that all are tough to master and most certainly will occasionally beat you down with the strong arm of their fickle, humbling nature. Some level of arrogance helps (once one reaches a certain level) but oftentimes it's the quiet, churn along style that bodes well towards success as the failures are plenty and the victories are few. I just ask the victories to be overlays.

Being quiet dosen't mean they don't have a inner arragonce,
they just know it is not in their best business interests to show off.
After all, all us other horse players are the compition/suckers.

They are very confident people.

[DJofSD]

The club pro can teach you to play golf. Tiger Woods can teach you to be world class.

That assumes Tiger's ability to teach is at the same level as his play. That is often not the case. Any endevour that achieves 'world class' status is done in a manner that does not lend itself to being easily communicated let alone taught. Typically, as has been discussed previously, athletes call their experience being in the zone. I'm sure those reading this have had that experience, for example, when the winner almost literally "jumps" off the page. How do you communicate and teach that to some one?

At a certain level of competence, Tiger would be an excellent sparring partner and mentor.

[whobet]

[QUOTE=whobet]
but the tellers at LAUREL knew who he was.


Nope______________________________________________ _____________________________
Question: was he the tall, thin guy who chainsmoked and hung out 1st floor clubhouse corner of the bar and when the smoking ban was instituted he moved to the smoking room 1st floor grandstand???

Haven't seen this guy for years !
nope

[whobet]

Well I suspect that a person who lists their occupation as "professional gambler" wouldn't be allowed to file returns for many years if they show no profit. Of course they may not report the EXACT amount they win, but I'm guessing they better keep really good records in case of an audit.

My friend listed his profession as gambler,
he kept merticulous records,
he paid quarterly tax payments,
and always over paid his taxes, so he never had to file his taxes.

He was audited one time,
the end result was the IRS owed him money.

He was never audited again.

[Greyfox]

That assumes Tiger's ability to teach is at the same level as his play. That is often not the case. Any endevour that achieves 'world class' status is done in a manner that does not lend itself to being easily communicated let alone taught..

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Absolutely! That is very often the case.
Jack Nicklaus' teacher = Grout
Tiger's teacher = Dad, Harmon, ...Haney ....Self....

David Leadbetter? Teacher of many top golfers. Great Teacher,
Good Golfer, but not ....a champ.

Sports is riddled with coaches who weren't that good themselves.
Yet they were able to bring the most out of their athletes.
They also knew the principles of the swing, in golf, eventhough their own bodies or minds, wouldn't allow them to make those motions.

I've given those examples, because the submission referred to golf.
There are many examples in other sports where your comments are magnified.

[Capper Al]

I'm talking about people whose primary source of income is wagering on horses and who make at least an average income (40-50K a yr).

I'm assuming they're out there, but, in 25 yrs of horse playing, I've never met one.

I was at a seminar once where they estimated that 5% of players won money on any given day, 2% had good years, and less than .5% are profitable year after year. I believe the .5% is high. Why would the Wizard work for BRIS if he's so good? And I'll guess out of that .5% who might be profitable, 80% of them work with inside information and only 20% are outsiders who handicap. That would translate to less than .1% or .001. One in a thousand sounds high to me. And jolly gosh at any handicapping website, we'll find a half dozen at least claiming they are profitable or knowing one of them.

[Greyfox]

I was at a seminar once where they estimated that 5% of players won money on any given day, 2% had good years, and less than .5% are profitable year after year. I believe the .5% is high..

I am not a professional handicapper in the sense that I make my living off the game. But I would say that what the seminar told you was rubbish.
There are no stats that demonstrate the crap put out by "join the 5 % club" types of hypers who are on the net for horse racing and gamblers anon and so on. Absolute bull twiddle.
Yet there are many contributors to this board that are going to send in their two cents worth and agree with that seminar's opinion.
I know that.
I make money month in and month out in my own way.
But I do not depend on horse racing for a living.

In the last 13 years, I had one year where I lost money, and not a lot.
I am a good handicapper, but could improve a lot on my betting.
There are 2 sides to this game and I'm working towards being a better bettor.
Nothing good comes easy.

[Rook]

One in a thousand sounds high to me. And jolly gosh at any handicapping website, we'll find a half dozen at least claiming they are profitable or knowing one of them.

One in a thousand are pros? Thanks for making me feel special.;) If you think I am one of the ones on this board full of crap then you are just over 5 hours away from unlearning the negativity that was spewed at you at that seminar. The game is tough but with rebates and your choice of dozens of tracks to choose from it is far from an insurmountable mountain.

[Kelso]

The game is tough but with rebates and your choice of dozens of tracks to choose from it is far from an insurmountable mountain.


Rook,
If I may, do you play a particular type/level of track, or a particular race class?

Thank you.

[badcompany]

[QUOTE=Rook]I've done my best to refrain from this thread and become as GaryG eloquently put it a "chest thumper" but there is no cliche that is more damaging to the sport than the one Silverfox spouted.

I invite him and anyone else who believes that nonsense to spend a day with me and permanently cure them of that erroneous belief.

[QUOTE]

Frankly, I think statements like yours do more damage. You seem to imply that on any random day you're guaranteed to win.

I don't care what kind of handicapping genius anyone here claims to be, your picks are still nothing more than educated guesses based on incomplete information, and some day those guesses will be wrong.

Don't get me wrong. Betting horses is a fun, exciting, intellectually stimulating activity. I go to Saratoga every year, and, win or lose, I have a great time. But, betting horses is a HORRIBLE WAY TO MAKE A LIVING.

Compare the the top 10% of horseplayers against the top 10% of almost any other profession. How do you think the former will stack up financially?

[Dave Schwartz]

I do agree with all you guys have said that being a great player does not make you a great teacher.

However, what it does do is show you, up close and personal, that it can be done.

My point was not that Tiger Woods actually teaches the swing, etc. Rather that he impresses upon the player what the real game is about.

Three years ago I had two "world class" men come into my life. They are the two most successful men I ever met and really gotten to know. They were both highly successful horse players. They absolutely raised my game to another level and, as a result, my life.

Most of you will see the value in this but a few of you will not. Those who will not probably believe that winning at the races is just a matter of picking good horses and making good decisions. In truth, it is far more than that. It is a mind set that can be taught and learned.

Do not misunderstand me here... they are not my "heroes." I learned a long time ago that all my heroes have clay feet. But they are my mentors for "success."


Sorry to prattle on about this but I fear my original post was not properly conveyed. (My error.)

IMHO, the biggest stumbling block to winning is the same stumbling block faced in virtually all walks of life: belief that we can achieve something significant. More than anything else, that is what Tiger Woods can give you that the teaching pro cannot.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Rook]

Rook,
If I may, do you play a particular type/level of track, or a particular race class?

Thank you.

Kelso,
I play as many tracks as I can handle where I have shown a profit either long term or short term.

Today, the tracks I bet were DEL,BEL,TDN,FE,CT,WO,HAW,NP,RP,WDS,HOO. I looked at races from but passed at EMD,ALB, PID and LA. All the other tracks were ignored. This list changes slightly from day to day as tracks that I start to lose at are dropped and I take new stabs at ones that have been out of favour for a month or so.

[DeanT]

DanG and Dave S,

So you know some of the folks who earn a living at it, I assuming you two included..... and in your experience there is a lot of bragadoccio? I only know one, and it could be nothing further from the truth with him. I recently chatted with another, and I found him to have very little arrogance as well. I always thought the ones that bragged, or got too emotional were losers.

I have a goofy theory that racing, because most lose 7 or 8 of ten bets, you have to have a thick skin for losing. In sports betting where you tend to hit 50% or more, I believe you can get emotional, because you know that your next win is probably in about ten minutes. When I read a book called "The Odds" regarding pro sports bettors I got that feeling. Alan Boston who was profiled was extremely emotional. When I read Steve Fierrro, chat with my friend, or hear stories about others I tend not to get that feeling about horseplayers.

Anyway, a long-winded reply to say that I am surprised to hear you tell us that. I always felt this game makes you humble in a hurry and to succeed in it that humilty is ingrained in a winner.

[DanG]

badcompany ~ betting horses is a HORRIBLE WAY TO MAKE A LIVING.
With all due respect to the following occupation…

The guy who mops the floor at the local XXX theatre might be considered a “horrible way to make a living” :eek:

All professions have their strength and weaknesses. If you’re lucky enough to figure out a way to make a nice living following this great sport, it’s anything but ‘horrible. Frustrating and can certainly have its share of anxiety, but what doesn’t in life?

[Rook]

Frankly, I think statements like yours do more damage. You seem to imply that on any random day you're guaranteed to win.

Don't get me wrong. Betting horses is a fun, exciting, intellectually stimulating activity. I go to Saratoga every year, and, win or lose, I have a great time. But, betting horses is a HORRIBLE WAY TO MAKE A LIVING.



I never claimed to win every day. That would be ridiculous. However, my winning days are more common and the amounts I win generally dwarf the amounts I lose.

Betting horses is a fantastic way to make a living. No commute, no tyrant of a boss, no needy employees, no unreasonable customers and no irritating co-workers. A pro gets to choose the days and hours he works and needless to say, watching horse races is among the most fun things to do.

[Dave Schwartz]

All professions have their strength and weaknesses. If you’re lucky enough to figure out a way to make a nice living following this great sport, it’s anything but ‘horrible. Frustrating and can certainly have its share of anxiety, but what doesn’t in life?

Dan,

Amen to that!

I count myself as one of the most fortunate people I know, being able to make my living from two things I enjoy so much: horse racing and software.

Seems you and I agree on quite a bit.

Next time you are in Las Vegas, let me know and I'll try to fly down and meet you for lunch.



Dean,

I do not mean to say that all (or even most) professional-level players are full of the brag. The majority are, as you say, quiet about racing, though certainly not humble.


Dave

[chickenhead]

IMHO, the biggest stumbling block to winning is the same stumbling block faced in virtually all walks of life: belief that we can achieve something significant.

I agree wholeheartedly Dave. I recently watched Herm Edwards, coach of the Kansas City Chiefs, exhort his younger players at the end of a film meeting, over and over again, "Do not be afraid to be great! Do not be afraid to be great!" I really think so many times that is the crucial defining factor for success or failure amongst otherwise skilled people.

[Kelso]

Kelso,
I play as many tracks as I can handle where I have shown a profit either long term or short term.

Today, the tracks I bet were DEL,BEL,TDN,FE,CT,WO,HAW,NP,RP,WDS,HOO. I looked at races from but passed at EMD,ALB, PID and LA.


WOW ... sounds as if you don't get bored waiting for a spot to materialize! Assuming you generally find something to bet at most tracks each day, that's the way I'd like to go if I were at this for a living.

Do you play a broad variety of race classes, as well? Thanks again.

[DanG]

DanG and Dave S,

So you know some of the folks who earn a living at it, I assuming you two included..... and in your experience there is a lot of bragadoccio? I only know one, and it could be nothing further from the truth with him. I recently chatted with another, and I found him to have very little arrogance as well. I always thought the ones that bragged, or got too emotional were losers.

I have a goofy theory that racing, because most lose 7 or 8 of ten bets, you have to have a thick skin for losing. In sports betting where you tend to hit 50% or more, I believe you can get emotional, because you know that your next win is probably in about ten minutes. When I read a book called "The Odds" regarding pro sports bettors I got that feeling. Alan Boston who was profiled was extremely emotional. When I read Steve Fierrro, chat with my friend, or hear stories about others I tend not to get that feeling about horseplayers.

Anyway, a long-winded reply to say that I am surprised to hear you tell us that. I always felt this game makes you humble in a hurry and to succeed in it that humilty is ingrained in a winner.
I think I miss-spoke Dean.

The immediate people I know personally are not emotional, but I’ve known some who said that were pro’s or certainly gave the impression they gambled seriously and many had massive ego’s.

You would walk right by the three men (now two) in our group and think they were accountants, or whatever. Even while the races are going on they are very unassuming men. Maybe I spent too many years in Vegas and saw too many ‘wanna-B’s that I have a false impression of the typical persona.

Vegas is filled with guys who come to town ready to dominate the world and leave in the cloak of darkness. As you said, it does seem to be the guy who comes and goes through the backdoor that sticks and often the guy who arrives in the limo ends up stooping for tickets.

Big difference between confidence and arrogance. To use a poker analogy… Phil Hellmuth is the kind of successful gambler I would never associate with and strikes me as arrogant. Daniel Negreanu on the other hand is very outgoing, but has a way about him where it doesn’t become personal. Dan Harrington would be a great horseplayer imo. He is exactly like the leader in my group and has the type of resilient personality that you describe.

I think I’m off the train the train of thought you posted…sorry. Long day…In closing, I do agree with you in this sense. Once you cross the line of profitability, it becomes less and less important to boast of your accomplishments.

I probably shouldn’t say this, but it applies here and I won’t mention names.

Another member of our group has a daughter who is ashamed (or so she says) of how her father earns his living. She won’t tell her friends he gambles on horses and it was fascinating to watch him when she used to come to town. He never showed it bothered him (even though I know it did) and he never discussed this with her friends. He also never let on that he had established a sizeable trust in her name. While I’m far from reaching that level of dignity (as is evident in what I often write) :eek: its something I greatly admire in him.

OK Dean…I think I contradicted myself only about…13 times in that post! LOL :D

PS: You’re on for lunch David, or I’ll come up north and save you the trip. :ThmbUp:

[Rook]

WOW ... sounds as if you don't get bored waiting for a spot to materialize! Assuming you generally find something to bet at most tracks each day, that's the way I'd like to go if I were at this for a living.

Do you play a broad variety of race classes, as well? Thanks again.

Kelso, I sure don't get bored. It is full tilt action especially during the summer and on the weekends. I counted the races I bet today and it totalled 57. I passed on 16 races: mostly the evening tracks because I knew my concentration was off due to being over at my parent's place for Sunday dinner. The maximum number of races I can handle in a day is about 80. I bet all classes and surfaces. I only look at races with at least fields of 8 unless I am completely dominating a track.

[Tee]

Most of you will see the value in this but a few of you will not. Those who will not probably believe that winning at the races is just a matter of picking good horses and making good decisions. In truth, it is far more than that. It is a mind set that can be taught and learned.

IMHO, the biggest stumbling block to winning is the same stumbling block faced in virtually all walks of life: belief that we can achieve something significant. More than anything else, that is what Tiger Woods can give you that the teaching pro cannot.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Dave,

If you will please elaborate.

[SignUpKing]

Well I suspect that a person who lists their occupation as "professional gambler" wouldn't be allowed to file returns for many years if they show no profit. Of course they may not report the EXACT amount they win, but I'm guessing they better keep really good records in case of an audit.

I was audited a few years back because of $282,000 in sign ups (hence my moniker), but my record-keeping was flawless. No problem.

[Dave Schwartz]

Tee,

It is late at night so I will be as brief as possible. (A trait I am not famous for.)

Did you ever read Think and Grow Rich by Napolean Hill? Most horseplayers I find have done so.

In that book the author constantly speaks of a secret so great that, once understood, the person in possession of the secret is swept on to success. That secret is "belief."


My experience with horse players, especially over the last 17 years of my life, has shown me that belief is the one thing that is usually missing. Very few players really expect to win.

Oh, we all talk a good game, both publicly and to ourselves. But do we really believe we can achieve it? My experience says, "no."

Frankly, my own study of self showed this to be a personal weakness of my own as well.

It is really the great Catch-22 of racing - and perhaps life. One needs belief to win and one needs to win in order to have belief. Which comes first, the chicken or the egg?


Having regular, periodic contact with someone who is actually doing what you want to do has huge value in you developing belief that you can do it. (How many times have you heard people on this board - perhaps even in this thread - question that it can be done or even that it is worth doing?)

This is what my two clients/friends did for me. They convinced me - first, that it could be done on a serious level - then that I could do it. (After all, if they can do it, why can't I?)


Enough. Phil McGraw I am not. (Where's Oprah? <G>)


Dave

[SignUpKing]

I was at a seminar once where they estimated that 5% of players won money on any given day, 2% had good years, and less than .5% are profitable year after year. I believe the .5% is high. Why would the Wizard work for BRIS if he's so good? And I'll guess out of that .5% who might be profitable, 80% of them work with inside information and only 20% are outsiders who handicap. That would translate to less than .1% or .001. One in a thousand sounds high to me. And jolly gosh at any handicapping website, we'll find a half dozen at least claiming they are profitable or knowing one of them.

There is a methodology, a thought process if you will, that, honestly, has very little to do with number-crunching, speed figures, pace figures and all of the other conventional handicapping BS that puts you on low-odds horses more often than not. (At least the way I approach the game has very little to do with number-crunching. Who needs a computer? I have programmed the one between my ears just fine.)

For me, it's two words when it comes to beating the horses: "pattern recognition".

But what patterns, you ask?

That is for me to know.

Horse racing is like a scaled test -- you are graded against everybody else, so there is no value in sharing your skill with strangers. (Plus, they wouldn't understand or believe a methodology that went against "good handicapping sense". By the way, "good handicapping sense" will send you to the poor house.)

I will, however, offer this advice: Read all of the books by the so-called "experts", Quinn, Brohamer, Meadows, Free, Liftin, and by whomever else, because you need to know how most horse players ("sharpies included") read a Racing Form, you need to know how they think. (My motto at the track: "Know how they think, and then boldly act when you know they're thinking wrong.")

Then, for the next few years study the Racing Form and the correlative results. Study the situations when conventional handicapping is wrong. Study the way prices horses look. Study the way beaten favorites look. Hell, study the way losing 3-1 shots look. If you study long enough, you'll find patterns that most players will not see and would not be able to bet even if they saw them. (Experts, usually, are looking for horses that look real good on paper. But horses that look "real good" on paper are automatic underlays.)

I get my greatest satisfaction hearing the amateurs and "sharpies" mumble, "How could you bet that horse?" when I am standing in the IRS line.

Yesterday, Saturday, the 23rd, at Fairplex Park (FPX), I hit the late Pick 4 for over $11,000.00. In the 11th race, I singled the 2 horse -- 30-1 on the morning line. Track down Saturday's form at FPX. Can you see after-the-fact what I saw before-the-fact? Without more, the 2 horse was one of my "pattern recognition" plays, and it was a Pick-4 singleton. (If the cynics need me to scan in my W-G form, just let me know.)

If you are skilled enough, you can consistently pull money out of the race track. Of that, I am living proof. And I do not write this to impress you; rather, I write it to inspire the people in this group who think beating the horse races is impossible.

And to answer Bad Company: betting the horses for a living, or in my case for significant extra income, IS A BEAUTIFUL THING. No boss, no cubicle, no time clock to punch.

On that note, I am a law professor in the private sector. Like many of you, I share disdain for most attorneys. But I did learn in law school -- another hint -- how to look at a static set of facts in a number of ways. One of my own law professors used to say, "The key is multiple interpretations of the same set of facts. That's what makes a good lawyer." And that's what makes a good horseplayer.

[Tee]

Dave,

I was just hoping we were on somewhat the same page. IMO what you are stating is much easier to apply to playing the horses than playing golf for a living. Not that it can't be done, but it might just be a bit more difficult due to the physical skill involved.

I could sit here and tell you I'm a believer, but does that really matter?

To answer my own question - only to me, cuz I would be the only one fooling myself if that wasn't the truth.

Have a good one Dave & thanks again,

Tee

Does that book come on tape? :)





Tee,

It is late at night so I will be as brief as possible. (A trait I am not famous for.)

Did you ever read Think and Grow Rich by Napolean Hill? Most horseplayers I find have done so.

In that book the author constantly speaks of a secret so great that, once understood, the person in possession of the secret is swept on to success. That secret is "belief."


My experience with horse players, especially over the last 17 years of my life, has shown me that belief is the one thing that is usually missing. Very few players really expect to win.

Oh, we all talk a good game, both publicly and to ourselves. But do we really believe we can achieve it? My experience says, "no."

Frankly, my own study of self showed this to be a personal weakness of my own as well.

It is really the great Catch-22 of racing - and perhaps life. One needs belief to win and one needs to win in order to have belief. Which comes first, the chicken or the egg?


Having regular, periodic contact with someone who is actually doing what you want to do has huge value in you developing belief that you can do it. (How many times have you heard people on this board - perhaps even in this thread - question that it can be done or even that it is worth doing?)

This is what my two clients/friends did for me. They convinced me - first, that it could be done on a serious level - then that I could do it. (After all, if they can do it, why can't I?)


Enough. Phil McGraw I am not. (Where's Oprah? <G>)


Dave

[Sailwolf]

DO you work for the IRS?

The other side of the fence.

[Capper Al]

This thread reminds me of Junior High were a lot of the boys claimed they were getting laid and none were. If more than two people are profitable year after year in this forum, I'll eat my computer. If your not enjoying the game for the sake of playing, you should find another hobby. You're only BSing yourself.

[DeanT]

Another member of our group has a daughter who is ashamed (or so she says) of how her father earns his living. She won’t tell her friends he gambles on horses and it was fascinating to watch him when she used to come to town. He never showed it bothered him (even though I know it did) and he never discussed this with her friends. He also never let on that he had established a sizeable trust in her name. While I’m far from reaching that level of dignity (as is evident in what I often write) :eek: its something I greatly admire in him.


Thanks. And very informative response. Thanks as well Dave.

The above strikes me. Why is it that a pro-horseplayer can be looked at like that? But a pro poker player can not? If I sell INTC puts a week before expiry because the fundamentals are there for a rise I am a respected trader, but if I bet a longshot off a 200 day layoff while sticking to a tight bankroll, because the trainer has won with a horse like that twice, I am somehow a degenerate gambler?

My friend who quit a decent job to do this, as well as other forms of gambling had a tough time telling his family. It was wild to chat with him about it. The smartest gambler I know. Sticks to his plan, bankroll, insatiable reader, never once sticking to rules, going on tilt, or whatever other pitfalls many of us face. To me that is something to be admired.

I would guess society, altho getting more open-minded about gambling, still can't get past the stereotype of a horseplayer. To win at this game you have to be good, and I look at anyone that succeeds in it - seeing there are so few - as a true professional, who would be successful in anything they do.

I agree on Dan H as well. He strikes me as the perfect personality for this game. Anyhow, sounds like you have a group of friends I would enjoy having dinner with. From my experience they sound like winners. Best luck.

[DanG]

This thread reminds me of Junior High were a lot of the boys claimed they were getting laid and none were. If more than two people are profitable year after year in this forum, I'll eat my computer. If your not enjoying the game for the sake of playing, you should find another hobby. You're only BSing yourself.
:lol::lol::lol::lol:

Bon appetite my friend!

http://blog.jsonvega.net/wp-content/uploads/220803920_6c22d91a4a.jpg

[Greyfox]

If more than two people are profitable year after year in this forum, I'll eat my computer. .

I'm one. So whose the other? :lol:

[njcurveball]

This thread reminds me of Junior High were a lot of the boys claimed they were getting laid and none were.

So what is your point here? To validate that others are losers like you?

Seriously now, you have got some great responses here about people who are successful.

Just because you are a virgin my friend, everyone else does not have to be as well.

[Rook]

I would guess society, altho getting more open-minded about gambling, still can't get past the stereotype of a horseplayer.

Yep, the stereotype is deeply ingrained and the cliche and ignorant belief that made me jump into this thread is the one that is most damaging "All horseplayers die broke."

Few things have pleased me more in my lifetime than shutting up the biggest skeptics in my life who told me I needed a conventional job and/or I couldn't buy a house with winnings from the races.

Aspiteri: you live about 5 hours away from me. My invitation to you is a sincere one. I will show you all of my betting and banking records because I want people to promote horse racing not run it down.

[njcurveball]

Compare the the top 10% of horseplayers against the top 10% of almost any other profession. How do you think the former will stack up financially?

I think compared to Wal Mart workers like yourself, the top 10% stack up very well. :jump:

[DeanT]

Hey Dave, maybe you could shed some light on this, or perhaps someone else.

Last time in Vegas I chatted with a man whose son-in-law ran a horse gambling synidicate. The stake apparently was not his own and he had it for clients. Since the man had no reason to tell me tales, and his story was believable, I take him at his word. My question is: Have you seen these pros who play for others in Nevada? Do they have a fee, take a percentage? Do they strike a back room deal with a casino to get cash back or other perks? Seems to me that if you were a grinder who could keep people happy and you start with a 75K bankroll you could easily pump $4M through the windows a year. A rebate would more than pay a decent salary to yourself.

Anyway, I dont know much about these things, and I was always meaning to ask someone who might now.

[DanG]

The above strikes me. Why is it that a pro-horseplayer can be looked at like that? But a pro poker player can not? If I sell INTC puts a week before expiry because the fundamentals are there for a rise I am a respected trader, but if I bet a longshot off a 200 day layoff while sticking to a tight bankroll, because the trainer has won with a horse like that twice, I am somehow a degenerate gambler?

My friend who quit a decent job to do this, as well as other forms of gambling had a tough time telling his family. It was wild to chat with him about it. The smartest gambler I know. Sticks to his plan, bankroll, insatiable reader, never once sticking to rules, going on tilt, or whatever other pitfalls many of us face. To me that is something to be admired.

I would guess society, altho getting more open-minded about gambling, still can't get past the stereotype of a horseplayer. To win at this game you have to be good, and I look at anyone that succeeds in it - seeing there are so few - as a true professional, who would be successful in anything they do.

There is absolutely a stigma involved Dean. Whether it be real or perceived through society’s conditioning.

I met my then wife in Vegas while gambling with my current group. Shortly after our marriage things began to change. She told her family I earned through “investing”, but was no more specific than that. Her (very protective) brother came over one day and I was betting over the phone and we started to talk about what I was doing. Several things started to change in the next few weeks.

Her entire family looked at me differently and the ones that didn’t were resentful that I didn’t let them in on this “secret money tree” :rolleyes: that betting was in their minds. Not long after this I couldn’t concentrate and with no benefits I felt I should quit and get a “real” job. I was MISERABLE and it eventually ended our marriage. Ironically were closer now that I’m back to doing what I know and love.

So much negative energy surrounding gambling. You have people like Bad Company and Aspiteri who have convinced themselves EVERYONE fails and those who claim otherwise are liars. (No disrespect meant, it is a very common perception) Eventually many just don’t bother to speak at all and the biggest loser is the aspiring gambler.

The man who just retired from our group passed along his amazing knowledge and experience to virtually no one. The reasons for this are many, but the stigma against the horseplayer is alive and well in 2007 and its felt from the public, family, IRS, track operators etc…that’s why when a horseplayer is treated with respect (such as PTC) :ThmbUp: they will usually respond in spades because its just that rare.

PS: Maybe it’s a generational thing? My daughter actually enjoys the fact that I play the horses. She tells her friends that I’m putting her through U of Fla. with track profilts and her friends think its cool. Very good for the ego to see her on campus and rather than feel defensive, actually feel proud of this very difficult occupation. :)

[cj]

With what I do for a living, I am usually very cautious with mentioning my serious involvement with horse racing because of the stigma attached.

However, once I get to know someone, I have no problem telling them. I've never had someone react negatively. Usually, they are pretty fascinated. I think if I did say these things before I really knew them, the outcome might me different.

[njcurveball]

Very good for the ego to see her on campus and rather than feel defensive, actually feel proud of this very difficult occupation. :)


You should feel proud Dan! Too many people (including myself) were raised with the Damon Runyan sterotypes of gamblers.

And when faced with the amount of work you do, most would quickly put on their smiley smock and get back to work at Wal Mart preaching how it cannot be done.

Thanks for sharing your success. As Dave Schwartz wrote, it is helpful just knowing others are successful!

[badcompany]

This thread reminds me of Junior High were a lot of the boys claimed they were getting laid and none were. If more than two people are profitable year after year in this forum, I'll eat my computer. If your not enjoying the game for the sake of playing, you should find another hobby. You're only BSing yourself.

LOL

That's the internet for ya.

I go to the track. I see nothing but angry old men yelling at television sets. But, here, everyone is cleaning up:lol:

[DanG]

Yep, the stereotype is deeply ingrained and the cliche and ignorant belief that made me jump into this thread is the one that is most damaging "All horseplayers die broke."

Few things have pleased me more in my lifetime than shutting up the biggest skeptics in my life who told me I needed a conventional job and/or I couldn't buy a house with winnings from the races.

Aspiteri: you live about 5 hours away from me. My invitation to you is a sincere one. I will show you all of my betting and banking records because I want people to promote horse racing not run it down.
On that very topic Rook;

I was e-mailed by someone calling me every name in the book for whatever reason. He said “I bet you haven’t cashed bet one, much less showed a profit for a year or more.” This person said they lived in upper state NY. I went to Saratoga this year and invited him for lunch. I brought with me 6 years of betting journals so we cold go through the process and discuss. Needless to say, he never showed up and I would LOVE for them to enter this thread and reveal their reasons for avoiding me.

Having said that…I was unpacking and Ronny was looking at the journals on a table and asked why I brought all these. I told him and he looked at me like a father to a son and said…”Aren’t you passed all that by now?” He’s 60 something and I’m 46 and no…I’m not in that good secure place yet, but I’m working on it! :D

[DanG]

YToo many people (including myself) were raised with the Damon Runyan sterotypes of gamblers.

Jim;

I’m almost sure I would be 9-5 if I didn’t meet grown men who were successful at this. I “felt” I could do it when I moved out there, but truth be told…I wasn’t sure. It is such an eye opening experience to meet successful people and it was pure luck that I did.

[DanG]

I've never had someone react negatively. Usually, they are pretty fascinated. I think if I did say these things before I really knew them, the outcome might me different.
Good point CJ and that is also my experience…just not within my wife’s family. :eek: :D

[Dave Schwartz]

Last time in Vegas I chatted with a man whose son-in-law ran a horse gambling synidicate. The stake apparently was not his own and he had it for clients. Since the man had no reason to tell me tales, and his story was believable, I take him at his word. My question is: Have you seen these pros who play for others in Nevada? Do they have a fee, take a percentage? Do they strike a back room deal with a casino to get cash back or other perks? Seems to me that if you were a grinder who could keep people happy and you start with a 75K bankroll you could easily pump $4M through the windows a year. A rebate would more than pay a decent salary to yourself.

Ironically, the only such person I know I met on this forum. He told me he runs such a syndicate; that he is the "pick man." I have no knowledge of his level of truthfulness on the topic beyond the fact that his public persona appears consistent with his profession.

A client introduced me to a guy that tried to invite me into his Las Vegas syndicate for that same purpose but I declined. This individual actually had a prospectus printed of the history of his "group." He had handicappers who specialized in football, basketball and baseball and wanted a horse racing guy.

He sold "shares" for precisely $5k each and distributed profits according to a formula where he and his handicappers kept a solid percentage and declared a "dividend" at the end of every quarter. Their prospectus said that they had only failed to pay a dividend in one quarter in 13 years.

The follow up on this story was that the client invested $5k with him. Shortly thereafter he got a cool about a "sure thing" IPO. He invested another $5k and the stock was dead within weeks. When he called back with the offer of another stock my client said, "Enough! I am being hustled. Give me my money back."

At this point the entire operation could suddenly not be found anywhere. Calls to his house were unanswered for a few days and then the number was disconnected. I had been to his home with the client - a beautiful home in one Green Valley(?).

The client asked me to help him get the Gaming Control Board involved. Amazingly, the GCB said that the guy was not doing anything wrong... at least nothing that warranted any involvement by them.

(My best guess is that the guy may well be reading this.)


So, while I believe that valid syndicates may exist, I have no knowledge of them. I would also be very careful about getting involved with one unless you know - and I mean really know - someone on the inside.


I believe W.C. Fields did a movie once titled, You Can't Cheat an Honest Man, alluding to the fact that only someone looking for something-gor-nothing can be cheated.

Caveat Emptor allies here.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Grits]

This thread reminds me of Junior High were a lot of the boys claimed they were getting laid and none were. If more than two people are profitable year after year in this forum, I'll eat my computer. If your not enjoying the game for the sake of playing, you should find another hobby. You're only BSing yourself.

I don't agree with you, Aspiteri. I think this is an good thread and there are some fine points that can be gleaned from within it. And, you may have a hard time digesting that computer, son. LOL

I post very little here, as these guys are excellent, and they far exceed any and all knowledge that I have. So, instead, I read a great deal. For you to imply you are surrounded by a room full of liars is probably not to your benefit.

I do think one has to have the mindset of positive thinking as a horseplayer . . . even of expecting to win--but that is another layer of thought.

I think there is a tremendous difference in the value of "expect to win" and "belief in oneself". They are two different animals, entirely, and should be weighted, properly. One has to approach all business in a realistic manner and this is true of wagering on horses, especially. If one does not, one is bound to be unsuccessful over the long term. In completing the equation, one too, must be aware of, and able to recognize, when they've just experienced the grace of a heavy, heavy, dose of LUCK.

I maintain that the upper echelon of greatness, or "world class" still is not taught. It comes from within.

Michael Jordan was not taught basketball.

Cal Ripken, Jr. was not taught baseball.

Dan Marino was not taught how to pass a football. (Dan didn't have legs worth a damn.)

Sam Walton was not taught retail.

General George Patton was not taught how to lead on a battlefield.

And finally, Secretariat was not taught how to run.

Desire, and the question of "how bad do you want it" was born in each.

[K9Pup]

My friend listed his profession as gambler,
he kept merticulous records,
he paid quarterly tax payments,
and always over paid his taxes, so he never had to file his taxes.

He was audited one time,
the end result was the IRS owed him money.

He was never audited again.

So he never submitted 1040 or other forms at year end? But yet he DID pay taxes. So if he made $50K at the horse track, some percent of that went to the government?

[Dave Schwartz]

Grits,

Good points, all.

Personally, my definition of "world class" is a bit lighter than yours (I think).

I believe anyone who manages to get on the PGA tour qualifies as "world class." I also believe if you are able to make it into the major leagues or the NFL you are world class. Lord knows that millions of young players try and fail to gain one of the hundreds of spots.

So, I consider anyone who is capable of making a significant amount of money (to them) from racing "world class."

One could easily argue (successfully) that I have trivialized the phrase; that there needs to be a level above my definition for people like Woods and (I struggle to say his name) B-B-B-Bonds.

This would be true, as Woods (and that B-guy) are certainly head a shoulders above the rest of the crowd. If everyone on the PGA tour is world class then Tiger (I've dropped his name enough to be on a first name basis, now.) must be universe class.


My point, of course, is that just beating the game is sufficiently difficult to demand some kind of fancy moniker.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[K9Pup]

I was audited a few years back because of $282,000 in sign ups (hence my moniker), but my record-keeping was flawless. No problem.

But I assume you DID show SOME profit that year??? And you did/didn't actually pay taxes to the government?

[Grits]

Dave, we agree.

[DeanT]

Jim;

I’m almost sure I would be 9-5 if I didn’t meet grown men who were successful at this. I “felt” I could do it when I moved out there, but truth be told…I wasn’t sure. It is such an eye opening experience to meet successful people and it was pure luck that I did.

I was less than even money when I heard people "sending it in" via getting back a huge rebate. I thought they were liars. Then I saw someone close do it and did it myself (no, I am not saying I consider myself a winner. I have ups and downs and am a long, long way from perfecting this craft, if I ever will). I truly believe whether you are a poker player, stock trader, or anything else that involves "outside the box" unconvential work, that you have to live it, or be close to it, to believe it. It seems like Mars to so many of us who have gotten their heads beat in at the game. JMO.

Her entire family looked at me differently and the ones that didn’t were resentful that I didn’t let them in on this “secret money tree”
You mean you didn't take them to the track and hit 15 out of 16 winners? Telling them you hit one out of every four of 7-2 shots just doesn't cut it for the romance money-machine end of it eh? :)

Thanks for the response Dave. From being close to the game for so long I did not/do not know what to believe with syndicates. I know there are many out there who have some skill. I always thought putting it to work grinding out a couple percent on $4M bet to keep the investors happy, while pocketing a rebate of 5% or more might be something that is done, especially since in any down year you still make money. However, it seems to me if you could do that, you certainly would be able to stake yourself and make money. Anyhow, thanks for the reply.

[Grits]

So he never submitted 1040 or other forms at year end? But yet he DID pay taxes. So if he made $50K at the horse track, some percent of that went to the government?

K9, the term that WhoBet may be alluding to is known as (and someone correct me if I am wrong here) estimated taxes. And yes, they are paid "in" as in-- sent IN to the IRS each quarter.

Many people that are self employed pay their taxes in this manner. At year end you may owe more, you may not. Still, you are filing and paying taxes. Believe me, you are.

You guys need to talk with your accountant.

[46zilzal]

North of the border, there is no tax on race track winnings...YET.

[DanG]

North of the border, there is no tax on race track winnings...YET.
Howdy neighbor… :)

46…What is the warmest climate north of the border? I loved Vancouver when visiting for a couple days, but the good real estate was VERY steep. :eek:

[DeanT]

No tax on gambling winnings, but you still have to file if it is your profession. And that is not a nice thing. Our tax rates are about as pleasant as getting a root canal.

[Rook]

No tax on gambling winnings, but you still have to file if it is your profession. And that is not a nice thing. Our tax rates are about as pleasant as getting a root canal.

This is the relevant section of the Canadian tax law as it relates to gambling:

An individual may be subject to tax on income derived from gambling itself, if the gambling activities constitute carrying on the business of gambling. The issue of whether or not an individual's activities are such that he can be considered to be carrying on a gambling business is a question of fact that can be determined only by an examination of all of the circumstances and the taxpayer's entire course of conduct. Although no one factor may be conclusive, the following criteria should be considered in making the determination:
(a) the degree of organization that is present in the pursuit of this activity by the taxpayer,
(b) the existence of special knowledge or inside information that enables the taxpayer to reduce the element of chance,
(c) the taxpayer's intention to gamble for pleasure as compared with any intention to gamble for profit as a means of gaining a livelihood, and
(d) the extent of the taxpayer's gambling activities, including the number and frequency of bets.

[46zilzal]

No tax on gambling winnings, but you still have to file if it is your profession. And that is not a nice thing. Our tax rates are about as pleasant as getting a root canal.
NOT a single person I know, NOT A ONE, does this. Come on now, there is no way they need to know particularly if you have another "front" profession.

[46zilzal]

Howdy neighbor… :)

46…What is the warmest climate north of the border? I loved Vancouver when visiting for a couple days, but the good real estate was VERY steep.

Steep and climbing with the 2010 Olympics here.

As my friend in the RCMP always tells me: "You can always tell where both the social and physical climates are most compatible to the druggies. THAT is where they all will land. Just go to East Hastings and you will see that evidence first hand."

There is a unique micro-climate in the area just NORTH and WEST of Seattle. Victoria has less rain. White Rock (coast) is one of the warmest areas on the coast but inland B.C. has some of the warmest weather the rest of the year. Often the hottest point in the country is in the Okanagan Valley.Because of the rain, we get buffered from the extreme cold that is consistent with being this far north. The only time it gets really cold is when the cloud cover is gone and then it rarely gets lower than -10 C.

[jma]

On that very topic Rook;

I was e-mailed by someone calling me every name in the book for whatever reason. He said “I bet you haven’t cashed bet one, much less showed a profit for a year or more.” This person said they lived in upper state NY. I went to Saratoga this year and invited him for lunch. I brought with me 6 years of betting journals so we cold go through the process and discuss. Needless to say, he never showed up and I would LOVE for them to enter this thread and reveal their reasons for avoiding me.

Having said that…I was unpacking and Ronny was looking at the journals on a table and asked why I brought all these. I told him and he looked at me like a father to a son and said…”Aren’t you passed all that by now?” He’s 60 something and I’m 46 and no…I’m not in that good secure place yet, but I’m working on it! :D

I found this fascinating for some reason. You know Dan, the fact you can admit you aren't past those feelings is the first step to getting there. It's cool that you can be so up front about it---most people couldn't, me included.

Wow, that really sounds like a therapy session. So who do you like in the 4th in Philly.

[DeanT]

NOT a single person I know, NOT A ONE, does this. Come on now, there is no way they need to know particularly if you have another "front" profession.

Yes, that is what most do I would assume. My friend is up front and pays tax on 100% of gambling profits, because it is his only source of income (and he obviously meets the criteria Rook posted). He thought about getting a token job, to get away from that, but it was a pain in the ass. Your write-offs against income et al, are filled out on the tax form as pertains to self-employed individuals, or business tax if you set it up as a corporation. I fill that out every year as I have been self-employed for many years. What a pain in the butt.

I am not sure, but I think that is the same in the US, if gambling is your "job"?

[Greyfox]

The only time it gets really cold is when the cloud cover is gone and then it rarely gets lower than -10 C.

When the cloud cover is gone? :lol:
The cloud cover is rarely gone.
From what I've seen of Hastings simulcasts,
the track is muddy more often than not.

[alysheba88]

Never have heard or read a reasonable explanation of what a "Pro" horseplayer is. See stuff like it means you make "xx per year" or "make xx per year every year" or "no other source of income" etc. Nonsense definitions if you ask me

[46zilzal]

When the cloud cover is gone?
The cloud cover is rarely gone.
From what I've seen of Hastings simulcasts,
the track is muddy more often than not.
I notice that my joints are getting rusty. But then I have been here since the mid 70's.

It is sunny as we speak.

A funny aside: Sunday as the jocks were coming to the gate for the B.C. Derby, a Neil Diamond impersonator was singing Sweet Caroline (I think it is called) and the starter had all the gate crew singing it like a choir. As the riders came by they all howled...A good tension breaker.

[DanG]

Steep and climbing with the 2010 Olympics here.

As my friend in the RCMP always tells me: "You can always tell where both the social and physical climates are most compatible to the druggies. THAT is where they all will land. Just go to East Hastings and you will see that evidence first hand."

There is a unique micro-climate in the area just NORTH and WEST of Seattle. Victoria has less rain. White Rock (coast) is one of the warmest areas on the coast but inland B.C. has some of the warmest weather the rest of the year. Often the hottest point in the country is in the Okanagan Valley.Because of the rain, we get buffered from the extreme cold that is consistent with being this far north. The only time it gets really cold is when the cloud cover is gone and then it rarely gets lower than -10 C.
Thanks 46, much appreciated. :ThmbUp:

Concerning the highlighted section…Have you heard something about me I should be concerned about? :D

[DanG]

. So who do you like in the 4th in Philly.
That’s easy JMA!

Just stand in line behind John Del Riccio and double down on his bets. The man is to Philly Park what Pat’s and Geno’s are to cheesesteaks! (Locked in; and thats no exaggeration!) :)

PS: Did I use “to” / “too” correctly? You guys have me so self conscious of my high school education I can barely type anymore! :blush: :D

[Rook]

Never have heard or read a reasonable explanation of what a "Pro" horseplayer is. See stuff like it means you make "xx per year" or "make xx per year every year" or "no other source of income" etc. Nonsense definitions if you ask me

For Canadians, this confusion and skepticism is to our advantage as far as taxes go. Last year, I posted the headline news case of a couple of brothers who earned several millions betting on horses and sports and they still ended up not paying any tax because the judge thought they were just lucky.

[Cratos]

This thread reminds me of Junior High were a lot of the boys claimed they were getting laid and none were. If more than two people are profitable year after year in this forum, I'll eat my computer. If your not enjoying the game for the sake of playing, you should find another hobby. You're only BSing yourself.

I disagree with your assumption that, "If more than two people are profitable year after year in this forum, I'll eat my computer.” I don’t know if you will like your computer with salt and pepper or you will like it plain, but grab the napkin and start eating.

My above statements were intended with fun, but seriously there are many and I do mean many horseplayers who show a profit year in and year out. The latest estimated statistics of people who bet (not attend the races) horses races are approximately 84,000,000/year and about 4% (about 3.4 million) of those are consistent winners over time That appears to be a lot, but it not when you consider that says about 24 of every 25 players are losers.

Furthermore how many people reveal their bank accounts, salaries, or any other personal financial data publicly, not many. Also winnings at the races can be tax-exempted (illegally) if you are quite and shrewd about your winnings. But why would anyone reveal in a pari-mutuel betting scenario (bettor against bettor) their winnings or their winning methods not unless they have an over-inflated ego.

Finally, I believe that you know that good handicapping techniques do not necessary convert into good winning betting techniques. There are players who are good handicappers and poor bettors; and there are players, who are poor bettors and good handicappers,

However in my nearly 40 years in betting and handicapping racehorses, the rare blend of good handicapper and good bettor is unique and is typically anonymous

[46zilzal]

However in my nearly 40 years in betting and handicapping racehorses, the rare blend of good handicapper and good bettor is unique and is typically anonymous

We have the same experience based conclusion. The mutuels people have told me who they are and you would NEVER guess by looking at their responses. The words "poker face" could define them.

They often collect at odd times as to not draw attention to themselves either.

[alysheba88]

For Canadians, this confusion and skepticism is to our advantage as far as taxes go. Last year, I posted the headline news case of a couple of brothers who earned several millions betting on horses and sports and they still ended up not paying any tax because the judge thought they were just lucky.

Wasnt really talking about the tax issue. Just in general. Never quite figured out what people are trying to say when they ask about "who is a pro"

[alysheba88]

This thread reminds me of Junior High were a lot of the boys claimed they were getting laid and none were. If more than two people are profitable year after year in this forum, I'll eat my computer. If your not enjoying the game for the sake of playing, you should find another hobby. You're only BSing yourself.

This is another inevitable post that comes about from these discussions. The old "If I cant make money, no one can" argument.

The other argument is the "I play the horses just as a hobby". Basically conceeding losing and accepting it. Kind of an offshoot of the if I cant make money no one can argument. To me thats crazy. What better than to have a "hobby" you like and enjoy AND make money at. People think enjoyment and making money are mutually exclusive.

[RaceBookJoe]

In my experience ( 30 years part-time, 2 years full-time), here is the conclusion that I came up with for ME, not anyone else. I am back to part-time only because handicapping became more of a job than an enjoyment. Yes a job is fulltime, but I got into horseracing because I loved it. I love reading the form and like a detective, finding clues to help me solve the puzzle. The 2 years i did it fulltime, i made enough to pay the bills, but not much leftover and it was tiring. I have much more fun now just playing when I want and knowing that win/loss column really wont affect whether I pay the bills or not.
I did it mainly on win/place bets with the occasional exacta, but it was a fight. Even though I won the fight (split decision not KO) , i wont get back in the ring so to speak. I have nothing but respect for any handicapper who can make a successful go at this endeavor, and also respect anyone who at least gives it an honest effort even in defeat.
My advice to anyone trying this would be to read any and everything you can find. You can learn from good books and what not to do from bad books/systems. I fortunately have a big collection of both....some stuff pretty old, some new. I would tell someone to learn correctly about the normal aspects of the game....speed, pace, training. Then I would tell them to learn patience and money management. You need all of these to win at the races. "The man with the best knowledge has the best luck" LGH.

[Rook]

Wasnt really talking about the tax issue. Just in general. Never quite figured out what people are trying to say when they ask about "who is a pro"

Yes, I knew you weren't talking about taxes but your post tied in nicely because it explained the state of mind of the judge who couldn't even concieve of professional gamblers, even when they had earned millions and had several employees. The judge thought that their luck would eventually run out. Similarily, this board would have a very difficult time coming to any consensus about who qualifies as a pro.

[Dave Schwartz]

RaceBookJoe,

You sounds like a guy that "gets it."

Congratulations on putting racing precisely where it needs to be in your life.


Good post.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[RaceBookJoe]

Thanks Dave. What is weird is that I kind of have more fun now even when I lose a race than when I won doing it fulltime. When FT, even when I won it was stressful for me because I KNEW I needed that win and a lose was a kick in the stomach. Dont get me wrong, i would much rather win, i actually hate to lose, but at least now I can manage the stress. I also think that you "get it" to.

[Rook]

When FT, even when I won it was stressful for me because I KNEW I needed that win and a lose was a kick in the stomach. Dont get me wrong, i would much rather win, i actually hate to lose, but at least now I can manage the stress.

I don't think it's a question of Full Time vs. Part Time as much as it's a question of how much of your net worth is at stake each day. When I was doing this part time, my nightmare scenario where I bet very heavily and lost every single race could cost me over 10% of my net worth. Now the number is down under 2%. Even though I am full time, I am far more relaxed about the outcome of each race.

[RaceBookJoe]

I don't think it's a question of Full Time vs. Part Time as much as it's a question of how much of your net worth is at stake each day. When I was doing this part time, my nightmare scenario where I bet very heavily and lost every single race could cost me over 10% of my net worth. Now the number is down under 2%. Even though I am full time, I am far more relaxed about the outcome of each race.

Good point, and my money management kept me safe. The mental thing was that I knew I NEEDED to win to pay my bills and THAT can make life stressful, even when you feel safe. I still play to win but dont NEED to in order to eat steak and not baloney/cheese, not that there is anything wrong with oscar meyer haha. My above post was how I dealt with the situation, not a catch-all for everyone. I got lucky and knew where my threshold was very early.

[DanG]

Never have heard or read a reasonable explanation of what a "Pro" horseplayer is. See stuff like it means you make "xx per year" or "make xx per year every year" or "no other source of income" etc. Nonsense definitions if you ask me
Agreed 88;

Always a question with several different “correct” answers imo.

It’s funny how the guy who delivers papers before dawn, cuts lawns during the day and cleans office complexes at night is a “pro” at all three…and yet…

The guy who sells software / writes / and / or earns cash from anything else for that matter is not a “pro” player; even if he makes $X$ amount of dollars from betting. For some reason ALL of their income must be derived from gambling or they don’t qualify for this title according to some people.

Strange world we live in at times…:confused:

[46zilzal]

It’s funny how the guy who delivers papers before dawn, cuts lawns during the day and cleans office complexes at night is a “pro” at all three…and yet…

The guy who sells software / writes / and / or earns cash from anything else for that matter is not a “pro” player; even if he makes $X$ amount of dollars from betting. For some reason ALL of their income must be derived from gambling or they don’t qualify for this title according to some people.

Strange world we live in at times…

That is because all these definitions are linked to testosterone soaked principles you might catch on SPIKE TV.

BEST I ever saw were a real estate agent and a octogenarian who's husband used to be the track vet.

[bigmack]

This thread reminds me of Junior High were a lot of the boys claimed they were getting laid and none were. If more than two people are profitable year after year in this forum, I'll eat my computer.
You're the goof who goes on & on ad nauseum about pace and spread sheets and all your other pontifications & you think the place is filled with losing players and the game cant' be profitable? What a maroon.

Anyone who has any interaction with this clown about anything related to handicapping is equally a fool.

As you're from Battle Creek you must be the cracked part of Snap Crackle & Pop.

[Imriledup]

Agreed 88;

Always a question with several different “correct” answers imo.

It’s funny how the guy who delivers papers before dawn, cuts lawns during the day and cleans office complexes at night is a “pro” at all three…and yet…

The guy who sells software / writes / and / or earns cash from anything else for that matter is not a “pro” player; even if he makes $X$ amount of dollars from betting. For some reason ALL of their income must be derived from gambling or they don’t qualify for this title according to some people.

Strange world we live in at times…:confused:

I think the reason all the income must be derived from gambling in their minds is because if you are REALLY good and not just 'scraping by' why would you 'need' to do anything else?

[Grits]

I think the reason all the income must be derived from gambling in their minds is because if you are REALLY good and not just 'scraping by' why would you 'need' to do anything else?

There are those that thrive everyday with the concept of multitasking! LOL

(I end up editing when the doorbell is ringing.)

[Imriledup]

I was talking to a friend about the negative stereotypes towards 'gamblers' including those who bet racehorses and he had an interesting look at things. He said that for anyone who is making a living at horse betting they should WANT the negative stereotype because that will keep plenty of smart people away from this game and thus, more money for the bettor who can deal with the crap that society heaps upon gamblers.

Really smart humans who have the ability to become Doctors or Lawyers don't go into horse betting...they go into Doctoring or Lawyering because those professions are looked UP to. Besides, its much easier to meet chicks by telling them you are a Doctor or Lawyer, as opposed to saying you bet racehorses for a living. The great line that pro's hear all the time when they say they bet on racehorses is, "is that ALL you do?":lol:

The negative stereotype comes from the fact that most people DO lose. As like anything in life, any stereotype there are ALWAYS going to be exceptions..... with horse bettors being no different.

[Cratos]

Agreed 88;

Always a question with several different “correct” answers imo.

It’s funny how the guy who delivers papers before dawn, cuts lawns during the day and cleans office complexes at night is a “pro” at all three…and yet…

The guy who sells software / writes / and / or earns cash from anything else for that matter is not a “pro” player; even if he makes $X$ amount of dollars from betting. For some reason ALL of their income must be derived from gambling or they don’t qualify for this title according to some people.

Strange world we live in at times…:confused:

Please confuse being a professional with being successful. In my opinion (which is limited) a professional at any occupational pursuit would be the people who commit themselves to that live hood for earning a living. This does say or imply because you are a “professional X” you are a successful “professional X” at earning a living. There are many “professionals” who are “hanger-ons” because of either their love the sport/job that they participate in or they are not skilled enough to move into another profession.

[NoDayJob]

How about a poll? How many on this forum are professional handicappers? That is, handicapping horses is their sole source of income. Betcha everyone is a professional in his/her own mind, but the wallet/purse is full of moths and spider webs. :lol: :lol:

[Imriledup]

How about a poll? How many on this forum are professional handicappers? That is, handicapping horses is their sole source of income. Betcha everyone is a professional in his/her own mind, but the wallet/purse is full of moths and spider webs. :lol: :lol:

I guess there are different 'degrees' of pros. Pro 1) If you make 30k per year and live at home and have your parents pay your bills, use their car and have an 11pm curfew, are you a pro? I guess if you can make 30k year in and year out, you are a pro.

Pro 2) If you own your own home, drive a car worth at least 50 that was purchased in the last 3 years, eat at expensive restaurants on a regular basis and own all the goodies such as a 3k laptop, a 3k television, etc. ANd, have NO payments on anything (yes, your 50k car must be paid off) than you are a pro of a different level.

I think when we think about 'pro' people are not willing to conceed that you are a pro bettor unless you fall into pro #2 category.

I think we're looking for anyone here who:

1) does nothing but bet horses for income (and, of course, you are allowed interest income on your bank accounts)
2) makes enough money to live a pretty 'high on the hog' lifestyle.
3) Have had at least 5 years of consistent success, with preferably 10 years of betting where all your expenses are paid, you own items and have a bank account and aren't living week to week.

I think when we say 'pro' we aren't looking for someone who just 'happened' to win a year or 2 in a row. We're looking for someone who's HUGE.

Someone who, if they stopped betting tomorrow, they could go at least a few years without working and be able to comfortably support themselves.

I'd imagine there are very few who can take a couple years off and still be ok, but i think that's what the skeptics here are looking for as legitimate.

[Grits]

This quote is, bar none, one of the most hilarious I've ever read online. The second paragraph is wisdom such as I have never encountered. This one is priceless and the writer should be awarded the Nobel Prize and the Publisher's Clearinghouse Sweepstakes millions.

:lol: It literally goes without saying, "one can't make this $#!@ up.":lol:

Imriledup, thank you for the laugh.

I was talking to a friend about the negative stereotypes towards 'gamblers' including those who bet racehorses and he had an interesting look at things. He said that for anyone who is making a living at horse betting they should WANT the negative stereotype because that will keep plenty of smart people away from this game and thus, more money for the bettor who can deal with the crap that society heaps upon gamblers.

Really smart humans who have the ability to become Doctors or Lawyers don't go into horse betting...they go into Doctoring or Lawyering because those professions are looked UP to. Besides, its much easier to meet chicks by telling them you are a Doctor or Lawyer, as opposed to saying you bet racehorses for a living. The great line that pro's hear all the time when they say they bet on racehorses is, "is that ALL you do?":lol:

The negative stereotype comes from the fact that most people DO lose. As like anything in life, any stereotype there are ALWAYS going to be exceptions..... with horse bettors being no different.

[NoDayJob]

Pro 2) If you own your own home, drive a car worth at least 50 that was purchased in the last 3 years, eat at expensive restaurants on a regular basis and own all the goodies such as a 3k laptop, a 3k television, etc. ANd, have NO payments on anything (yes, your 50k car must be paid off) than you are a pro of a different level.

I think when we think about 'pro' people are not willing to conceed that you are a pro bettor unless you fall into pro #2 category.

I think we're looking for anyone here who:

1) does nothing but bet horses for income (and, of course, you are allowed interest income on your bank accounts)
2) makes enough money to live a pretty 'high on the hog' lifestyle.
3) Have had at least 5 years of consistent success, with preferably 10 years of betting where all your expenses are paid, you own items and have a bank account and aren't living week to week.

I think when we say 'pro' we aren't looking for someone who just 'happened' to win a year or 2 in a row. We're looking for someone who's HUGE.

Someone who, if they stopped betting tomorrow, they could go at least a few years without working and be able to comfortably support themselves.

I'd imagine there are very few who can take a couple years off and still be ok, but i think that's what the skeptics here are looking for as legitimate.

Did you see my definition of a professional handicapper on page 3. :lol:

[Dave Schwartz]

Personally, I think this thread is reaching the point of diminished returns so I will try to bow out shortly. Before my exit, I'll add a couple more points.

Using the prevailing wisdom here which seems to be a professional must:

1. Make a lot of money.
2. Have no other source of income.


First, I have an old friend and former client who is a psychiatrist in his day job. He is the best pure handicapper I have ever known, able to bring together data from multiple sources to produce powerful and profitable tickets. He made $250k+ from racing several years in a row. He maked $450k per year from his "job" and would not, therefore, qualify as a professional because it is not his only source of income.

Second, another successful player whom I have not spoken with in over a decade comes to mind. Race wagering was the sole support of his family living in San Francisco. He made just below $50k per year but could not seem to get his income above that and literally lived hand-to-mouth. He would not qualify because he did not make enough money.

Third comes an old man who used one of my wagering strategies about 12-13 years ago. He called me and said that he was retired, living on a fixed income (Social Security). He had always ground out $300-400 per month using one of the Sartin programs. The money management boosted him to over $2k per month. He doesn't qualify as "professional" because he doesn't make enough and has a secondary source of income.


As far as I am concerned, all three of these players are "at a professional level." Obviously, some are at a higher level than others but (in my mind) professional nonetheless.


Regards to all,
Dave Schwartz

[DJofSD]

As far as I am concerned, all three of these players are "at a professional level." Obviously, some are at a higher level than others but (in my mind) professional nonetheless.

Dave, your insight and examples should be a cause for a reconsideration of what it means to be handicapping and wagering at a professional level. Rigid definitions of what constitues success invite counter examples. Being flexible in both handicapping and in life makes the journey a lot more enjoyable.

...so I will try to bow out shortly.

Then I guess we can say 'Dave's not here!' :)

[Gibbon]

Really smart humans who have the ability to become Doctors or Lawyers don't go into horse betting...they go into Doctoring or Lawyering because those professions are....... Now departed, William Scott was a practicing attorney who wrote a couple books on horse race handicapping.

Currently, Dr. Charles Judge a chief internist in Maryland responsible for 18 other doctors writes his own code to simplify his play. http://track-judge.com/






____________________
Every person who has mastered a profession is a skeptic concerning it. ~ George Bernard Shaw

[Tom]

Using the prevailing wisdom here which seems to be a professional must:

1. Make a lot of money.
2. Have no other source of income.


Regards to all,
Dave Schwartz

Do all professionals in other fields make a profit? Have no lawyers or doctors ever gone bankrupt?

Plumbers (well, ok probably not plumbers) :rolleyes:

What I get from this thread is EGO is the key element.

[Robert Goren]

Plumbers (well, ok probably not plumbers) :rolleyes:

Not unless they play the ponys

[cj]

Personally, I would never want betting to be my only source of income. Who needs that pressure?

[Tee]

Personally, I would never want betting to be my only source of income. Who needs that pressure?

The above statement is a perfect lead to another thread.

"How many professional handicappers are under the care of a psychiatrist." :D

[DanG]

This is fascinating stuff…

Not singling out any statement or person here, but these are (presumably) horse players that are making these declarations. Many of which to be frank are completely ignorant. One can only imagine how those outside of our game view this lifestyle choice. However; perhaps I have that reversed. Many players have grown so bitter they lash out to justify their own shortcomings.

I can’t imagine walking into a neighborhood business and declaring…”What a horrible way to make a living…If you make money from this store I’ll eat my computer…All dry cleaners die broke…If your doing so well here, why do you have a soda machine? and one more thing…If you can’t raise $1,000,000 in cold cash by tomorrow I’m stamping “loser” on your forehead” ~ Thanks and have a nice day! :)

Some of my favorites so far…



You can beat a race but cant beat the races
Can raise @ least $1,000,000 in cash overnight, without mortgaging his house, stocks or anything else, while maintaining his/her present life style.
You hit it on the button.Horsr players die broke.
So, what we've learned from this thread is that professional horseplayers, if they actually exist, are quiet, unassuming braggadoccios
Why would the Wizard work for BRIS if he's so good?
I don't care what kind of handicapping genius anyone here claims to be, your picks are still nothing more than educated guesses based on incomplete information, and some day those guesses will be wrong.
Betting horses is a HORRIBLE WAY TO MAKE A LIVING.
You seem to imply that on any random day you're guaranteed to win.
If more than two people are profitable year after year in this forum, I'll eat my computer.
If your not enjoying the game for the sake of playing, you should find another hobby. You're only BSing yourself.
I go to the track. I see nothing but angry old men yelling at television sets. But, here, everyone is cleaning up
I think the reason all the income must be derived from gambling in their minds is because if you are REALLY good and not just 'scraping by' why would you 'need' to do anything else?
Really smart humans who have the ability to become Doctors or Lawyers don't go into horse betting...they go into Doctoring or Lawyering because those professions are looked UP to. Besides, its much easier to meet chicks by telling them you are a Doctor or Lawyer, as opposed to saying you bet racehorses for a living.
In the spirit of one of my favorite guys…:ThmbUp:

Carry on…Carry on…:)

[Rook]

Personally, I would never want betting to be my only source of income. Who needs that pressure?

I agree that there is tons of pressure when you are just starting out but there's not much stress when you've built up a substantial bankroll and net worth. I faced far more pressure meeting deadlines as a student writing essays or as a teacher writing report cards.

If I my matched my worst ever month, it would only knock off about 7% of my net worth which would obviously hurt but it wouldn't be devastating. I would just take a month's vacation and then either get back up on the horse or work on a program upgrade.

[bigmack]

You can beat a race but cant beat the races
Can raise @ least $1,000,000 in cash overnight, without mortgaging his house, stocks or anything else, while maintaining his/her present life style.
You hit it on the button.Horsr players die broke.
So, what we've learned from this thread is that professional horseplayers, if they actually exist, are quiet, unassuming braggadoccios
Why would the Wizard work for BRIS if he's so good?
I don't care what kind of handicapping genius anyone here claims to be, your picks are still nothing more than educated guesses based on incomplete information, and some day those guesses will be wrong.
Betting horses is a HORRIBLE WAY TO MAKE A LIVING.
You seem to imply that on any random day you're guaranteed to win.
If more than two people are profitable year after year in this forum, I'll eat my computer.
If your not enjoying the game for the sake of playing, you should find another hobby. You're only BSing yourself.
I go to the track. I see nothing but angry old men yelling at television sets. But, here, everyone is cleaning up
I think the reason all the income must be derived from gambling in their minds is because if you are REALLY good and not just 'scraping by' why would you 'need' to do anything else?
Really smart humans who have the ability to become Doctors or Lawyers don't go into horse betting...they go into Doctoring or Lawyering because those professions are looked UP to. Besides, its much easier to meet chicks by telling them you are a Doctor or Lawyer, as opposed to saying you bet racehorses for a living.

Makes you wonder why they spend time around here or in a game they've never been able to beat. I completely abhor jaded losers that assume others are as ignorant as they are. Pathetic! Go sit on your dirty LayZBoy's and leave winning to those who work hard and still have gonads.

[K9Pup]

Personally, I think this thread is reaching the point of diminished returns so I will try to bow out shortly. Before my exit, I'll add a couple more points.

Using the prevailing wisdom here which seems to be a professional must:

1. Make a lot of money.
2. Have no other source of income.


First, I have an old friend and former client who is a psychiatrist in his day job. He is the best pure handicapper I have ever known, able to bring together data from multiple sources to produce powerful and profitable tickets. He made $250k+ from racing several years in a row. He maked $450k per year from his "job" and would not, therefore, qualify as a professional because it is not his only source of income.

Second, another successful player whom I have not spoken with in over a decade comes to mind. Race wagering was the sole support of his family living in San Francisco. He made just below $50k per year but could not seem to get his income above that and literally lived hand-to-mouth. He would not qualify because he did not make enough money.

Third comes an old man who used one of my wagering strategies about 12-13 years ago. He called me and said that he was retired, living on a fixed income (Social Security). He had always ground out $300-400 per month using one of the Sartin programs. The money management boosted him to over $2k per month. He doesn't qualify as "professional" because he doesn't make enough and has a secondary source of income.


As far as I am concerned, all three of these players are "at a professional level." Obviously, some are at a higher level than others but (in my mind) professional nonetheless.


Regards to all,
Dave Schwartz

I think there is a big difference between a player that makes their living PRIMARILY from gambling and one who plays recreationally. Only because the person that DEPENDS on their gambling winning to "survive" has much more pressure on them than the guys that can play for "fun". That doesn't mean the guys that play for fun can't be great handicappers, in fact I consider myself one of those. But it has to be a different environment when you NEED to win to pay the mortgage. Personally I think it would take a lot of fun out of it.

[Cratos]

Agreed 88;

Always a question with several different “correct” answers imo.

It’s funny how the guy who delivers papers before dawn, cuts lawns during the day and cleans office complexes at night is a “pro” at all three…and yet…

The guy who sells software / writes / and / or earns cash from anything else for that matter is not a “pro” player; even if he makes $X$ amount of dollars from betting. For some reason ALL of their income must be derived from gambling or they don’t qualify for this title according to some people.

Strange world we live in at times…:confused:

Please don't confuse being a professional with being successful. In my opinion (which is limited) a professional at any occupational pursuit would be the people who commit themselves to a particular line of work to earning a living. This does not say or imply that because you are a “professional X” you are a successful “professional X” at earning a living. There are many “professionals” who are “hanger-ons” because of either their love for the sport/job that they participate in or they are not skilled enough to move into another profession.

[classhandicapper]

Personally, I would never want betting to be my only source of income. Who needs that pressure?

I agree totally.

I DON'T WANT TO BE A PROFESSIONAL.

I love this game. It was great for my ego when I finally became a consistent winner - considering all the time and energy I put into it. But at this point in my life I want a totally stress free, balanced, and enjoyable existence. Full time horse playing or even full dedication to a career does not allow that.

I have a wide variety of income sources and don't dedicate myself to any of them. I play horses, manage my investments, play poker, and work part time.

That approach keeps me busy, allows me to vary the time I put into any one thing based on which I am enjoying most and where the biggest opportunities are, reduces the stress of having to make money from one source, diversifies the sources income, and maximizes my life.

I don't consider myself a professional, but I consider myself skilled and bankrolled enough to become a professional. I just don't want that even though I love horse racing and handicapping as much as anyone.

I highly recommend that if you are young, working, and playing horses part time, that you save your money, invest for the long term, play horses part time, and semi-retire as young as possible. :ThmbUp:

[Capper Al]

:lol::lol::lol::lol:

Bon appetite my friend!

http://blog.jsonvega.net/wp-content/uploads/220803920_6c22d91a4a.jpg

Funny!

[Capper Al]

So what is your point here? To validate that others are losers like you?

Seriously now, you have got some great responses here about people who are successful.

Just because you are a virgin my friend, everyone else does not have to be as well.

My belief is that one can't become a winner at handicapping without being honest about their play first. If you want to be that one in a thousand you better sober up, check your premises that cause to lose, and deal with it. It ain't going to happen by pretending.

[Capper Al]

Yep, the stereotype is deeply ingrained and the cliche and ignorant belief that made me jump into this thread is the one that is most damaging "All horseplayers die broke."

Few things have pleased me more in my lifetime than shutting up the biggest skeptics in my life who told me I needed a conventional job and/or I couldn't buy a house with winnings from the races.

Aspiteri: you live about 5 hours away from me. My invitation to you is a sincere one. I will show you all of my betting and banking records because I want people to promote horse racing not run it down.

I'm interested. I'm in a handicapping contest finals at the moment. After that pick some races, we'll both cap them. If you beat me, I'll visit. Fair enough?

[Capper Al]

This is another inevitable post that comes about from these discussions. The old "If I cant make money, no one can" argument.

The other argument is the "I play the horses just as a hobby". Basically conceeding losing and accepting it. Kind of an offshoot of the if I cant make money no one can argument. To me thats crazy. What better than to have a "hobby" you like and enjoy AND make money at. People think enjoyment and making money are mutually exclusive.

I'm not doubting that some cappers are profitable. it's just that at any given website about a dozen or so pop up. What are the odds of that? 1 in a 1000?

[sjk]

A significant percentage of serious players are going to find their way to this site so it is absurd to suppose that the people in this thread are a random group of horseplayers.

[Capper Al]

In my experience ( 30 years part-time, 2 years full-time), here is the conclusion that I came up with for ME, not anyone else. I am back to part-time only because handicapping became more of a job than an enjoyment. Yes a job is fulltime, but I got into horseracing because I loved it. I love reading the form and like a detective, finding clues to help me solve the puzzle. The 2 years i did it fulltime, i made enough to pay the bills, but not much leftover and it was tiring. I have much more fun now just playing when I want and knowing that win/loss column really wont affect whether I pay the bills or not.
I did it mainly on win/place bets with the occasional exacta, but it was a fight. Even though I won the fight (split decision not KO) , i wont get back in the ring so to speak. I have nothing but respect for any handicapper who can make a successful go at this endeavor, and also respect anyone who at least gives it an honest effort even in defeat.
My advice to anyone trying this would be to read any and everything you can find. You can learn from good books and what not to do from bad books/systems. I fortunately have a big collection of both....some stuff pretty old, some new. I would tell someone to learn correctly about the normal aspects of the game....speed, pace, training. Then I would tell them to learn patience and money management. You need all of these to win at the races. "The man with the best knowledge has the best luck" LGH.

This is what I would expect a pro to say. It would be harder than work without health insurance and vacation.

[alysheba88]

I'm not doubting that some cappers are profitable. it's just that at any given website about a dozen or so pop up. What are the odds of that? 1 in a 1000?

While I think most probably overestimate the % of players who are longer term profitable I am probably not alone in not caring. Meaning I dont really spend time wondering how many players on a forum are profitable, pros, whatever, and I could care even less whether people think I am or not.

Good ideas are good ideas. Could write a War in Peace length book citing great ideas and strategies that came from people who would be considered by some to be unsuccessful. You can usually have some idea about how well people do by their posts and ideas but even then you can never really know. Someone could preach nothing but sound strategies and then in the heat of the moment, piss away money on bad strategies. Doesnt mean the sound strategies arent sound. Brilliant people in all walks of life have flaws. Again, call comes back to not caring. I dont care when people say no one can win at this game, because I have learned thats usually just frustration. Years of pent up frustration and ego. If I cant do it, no one can

[Pace Cap'n]

I'm interested. I'm in a handicapping contest finals at the moment. After that pick some races, we'll both cap them. If you beat me, I'll visit. Fair enough?

What is the second prize?

[alysheba88]

What is the second prize?

Months subscription to John Piesen

[Zaf]

What is the second prize?

A set of Steak Knives :lol:

Z

[Capper Al]

What is the second prize?

I'll visit you!

[spilparc]

Amazing thread. Why? Go to any poker website and everyone there is a pro and they all win. At least there's a bit of honesty here.

I'd like to make a living playing the horses, but I wouldn't even dream of trying it until I was a master win bettor hitting about 40% of my win bets. Impossible? Hardly.

Dick Mitchell said it a long time ago in one of his books. "You've got to master win betting before you can even think about trying exactas, trifectas and all the rest. Once you've mastered win betting then you can try serial win betting...and then the vertical bets--but first you've got to be able to pick yourself some winners."

As an experiment the last time I played live I hung out at the windows pretending to study the form. I wanted to see what was the most common bet. I believed I already knew the answer, so I just hung out for a race or two.

"Exacta box."

"Exacta box."

"Exacta box."

About 15 years ago I was at the track one day and I asked 20 people what they thought was the single most important factor in horse racing . I know most of you will guess what it was, and I was pretty sure I knew too, but I just wanted to see.

"The jockey."

"Oh, I always have to have a good jockey,"

"Shit, you got a bad jockey, and you might as well forget about it."

"It's the jockey, man."

No wonder (almost) everybody loses. The real winners at this game know how to "read between the lines."

And the pros? They work their asses off. It's a real job that takes tons of dedication--just like any other occupation.

[Tom]

I'll visit you!

3rd prize - two visits?:lol:

[riskman]

This thread reminds me of Junior High were a lot of the boys claimed they were getting laid and none were. If more than two people are profitable year after year in this forum, I'll eat my computer. If your not enjoying the game for the sake of playing, you should find another hobby. You're only BSing yourself.

Your beliefs are what guide your actions. It's difficult to act in opposition to your beliefs.If your beliefs say you are a loser,you are a loser,and all the handicapping books, seminars and horse racing forums in the world won't change things. It's only when you can rise above your negative attitudes that you can even hope for success.If you cannot accept the idea of "your" achieving a profitable edge in this game you might as well throw your money down the crap hole.Most of grew up on the words-- no, can't, and don't. Start using your "right" brain.

[banacek]

When the cloud cover is gone? :lol:
The cloud cover is rarely gone.
From what I've seen of Hastings simulcasts,
the track is muddy more often than not.

Hey 46, you are at Hastings everyday. How many times has the track been sloppy this year? like 5?

[46zilzal]

Hey 46, you are at Hastings everyday. How many times has the track been sloppy this year? like 5?
No at least 15 minimum. I can recall very well since when the camera gets wet, I have no zoom feature.

A funny one yesterday for the big B.C. Derby. There was a Neil Diamond imitator singing Sweet Caroline and all the gate crew was singing the chorus with the starter as choirmaster. All the riders were cracking up as they went by.

[SignUpKing]

Your beliefs are what guide your actions. It's difficult to act in opposition to your beliefs.If your beliefs say you are a loser,you are a loser,and all the handicapping books, seminars and horse racing forums in the world won't change things. It's only when you can rise above your negative attitudes that you can even hope for success.If you cannot accept the idea of "your" achieving a profitable edge in this game you might as well throw your money down the crap hole.Most of grew up on the words-- no, can't, and don't. Start using your "right" brain.

Riskman, I concur.

Plus, it is difficult to think otherwise when all of the popular handicapping books, if followed, usually lead to a negative bottom line. When "mortal locks" lose, we start to question whether the game can be beat. When James Quinn's picks from Equibase can't beat the game, people start to believe it is an unbeatable game.

But it isn't. The so-called experts aren't experts after all.

[SignUpKing]

But I assume you DID show SOME profit that year??? And you did/didn't actually pay taxes to the government?

I only had $68,000 in losing tickets. I paid taxes on over $170,000 of horse-racing winnings.

[SignUpKing]

This thread reminds me of Junior High were a lot of the boys claimed they were getting laid and none were. If more than two people are profitable year after year in this forum, I'll eat my computer. If your not enjoying the game for the sake of playing, you should find another hobby. You're only BSing yourself.

You don't win. So no one can?

[banacek]

No at least 15 minimum. I can recall very well since when the camera gets wet, I have no zoom feature.


I've only got 7 ( May 20, June 9, June 10, June 24, July 20, July 21, July 22), but I meant sloppy. Some of the days are good and some days you've got rain but not sloppy. It just seems everyone says it's always sloppy and it isn't!

[Kelso]

46…What is the warmest climate north of the border?


Wildwood, New Jersey ... certainement!

[PaceAdvantage]

But, here, everyone is cleaning up:lol:Whatever...

[Capper Al]

Your beliefs are what guide your actions. It's difficult to act in opposition to your beliefs.If your beliefs say you are a loser,you are a loser,and all the handicapping books, seminars and horse racing forums in the world won't change things. It's only when you can rise above your negative attitudes that you can even hope for success.If you cannot accept the idea of "your" achieving a profitable edge in this game you might as well throw your money down the crap hole.Most of grew up on the words-- no, can't, and don't. Start using your "right" brain.

Platitudes go so far. Honesty is the key. Garbage in, garbage out. If you're not making money there is no one or thing to blame. I have been upfront about not being profitable. What I haven't said is that I could probably out handicap most. It hasn't been about me. I have posted 5 races and shown that my system picked out of 5 races 3 winners, 1 second, and 1 fourth place finish. I have been discussing knowing when to get on or off a numeric (or system) pick. In other words, this is the key to wagering. Those who are professional would have recognized this. Not too many picked up on it with all these so called profitable gurus. How could they when they are not profitable themselves.

[Capper Al]

3rd prize - two visits?:lol:

You visit.

[Capper Al]

You don't win. So no one can?

I believe it can be done. But one shouldn't quit their day job. It's too hard of work with no benefits and streaky.

[alysheba88]

The biggest load of c...p out there (and something I used to say too) is the "I can handicap with anyone but have problems with money management/betting". First of all someone who says that probably isnt all that great a handicapper. Secondly, its like saying I have a great baseball swing until someone pitches me the ball.

Just another hoary excuse about why one doesnt make money (and then inevitably leads to the no one can make money)

[formula_2002]

Trying to calculate what percentage of the money wagered can beat this game.

In a data base of about 16,000 horses, there were 1733 winners.
Based on the odds (adjusted for take-out) there should have been
1734 winners.
The money wagered determined the correct odds.

The variance in the incremental odds ranges was greater than the total.
Example,in the 0 to 10 odds range there were 1200 winners compared to 1183 expected winners.
In the 11 to 20 odds range there were 418 winners compared to 423 expected winners.

To me that represents the same accuracy in predicting the flipping of a coin, heads or tails.

If the house took a 20% vig on a 50-50 proposition, your win probability would be 40% winners, 60% losers.

In 100 plays, the standard deviation would be sqrt(.4*.6*100) = 5

To break even you would have to win by 2 standard units.
The probability of achieving 2 positive standard units is about 2%.

Conclusion, in a 50-50 proposition, having a 20% vig, if it’s possible, only 2% percent of the money wagered to win can, over the long run ,breaks even.

[cj]

There is no skill involved in picking the outcome of the toss of a coin.

[alysheba88]

There is no skill involved in picking the outcome of the toss of a coin.

Exactly. Nor is there a way to change it to a positive expectation outcome.

[nobeyerspls]

The biggest load of c...p out there (and something I used to say too) is the "I can handicap with anyone but have problems with money management/betting". First of all someone who says that probably isnt all that great a handicapper. Secondly, its like saying I have a great baseball swing until someone pitches me the ball.

Just another hoary excuse about why one doesnt make money (and then inevitably leads to the no one can make money)

It's not about making money or not making money, it's about maximizing returns. For example, $60 win on an 18-1 in the last race brings a nice return. Handicapping the two prior races and betting only $10 to win with the rest used in late doubles and the late pick3 will more than double the return.
I'm handicapping the same way I always have, but a little creativity in the money management area has elevated me to my best year ever.

[formula_2002]

There is no skill involved in picking the outcome of the toss of a coin.



You are obviously correct.
But given the many different sets of data required to pick winning horses, the public does an outstanding job in setting the odds line.
My point is that they (actually, their money ) are as accurate as a guy calling heads or tails.

They are both playing against a “perfect odds lines
My point was to demonstrate, how difficult it is to overcome, in this 50-50 case, a 20% vig. 2 standard units gets you EVEN..

[DeanT]

The biggest load of c...p out there (and something I used to say too) is the "I can handicap with anyone but have problems with money management/betting". First of all someone who says that probably isnt all that great a handicapper. Secondly, its like saying I have a great baseball swing until someone pitches me the ball.

Just another hoary excuse about why one doesnt make money (and then inevitably leads to the no one can make money)

I respectfully disagree with this. I think gambling properly is extremely important. I would make an assumption that if you are near a break even handicapper overall who knows how to bet, you could do much, much better than someone else who is a break even handicapper who does not.

In tracking my results over "sessions", I noticed early on that my flat bet numbers on key plays were better than actual, and often times I ended up negative. Why? Action bets, were brutal, so if I could not cut them out I would have to bet size them at 1%. Why #2? My odds line, while doing fairly well was not perfect. I would size my bets higher based on perceived edge, but that perceived edge was wrong. I was betting too much on horses that lost, and betting too little on horses that won. False faves? I can find them. But I did not execute properly. Instead of looking for a decent edge in the place pool agaisnt a fave, or in pick 3's or doubles, I would use exactas and tris and that was a terrible hit rate for me. Bad habits and bad execution which went on and on and on.

About four years ago I dropped reading pure handicapping books and only read gambling ones. It helped me immensely. My experience has lead me to believe that: Can you win with a hit rate below payout rate? No. Can you lose with a hit rate above payout rate? Yes. And that is all money management and knowing how to gamble properly.

You are obviously correct.
But given the many different sets of data required to pick winning horses, the public does an outstanding job in setting the odds line.
My point is that they (actually, their money ) are as accurate as a guy calling heads or tails.

They are both playing against a “perfect odds lines
My point was to demonstrate, how difficult it is to overcome, in this 50-50 case, a 20% vig. 2 standard units gets you EVEN..

I very much agree with this. I posted this on another thread for the stagecoach story at the bottom, but it fits here:

http://www.probabilitytheory.info/topics/efficiency_betting_market.htm

It is the actual versus implied probability of the betfair horse market - a smooth curve. The only thing we have to go on is that each race is a unique event with small inefficiences. Staying away from the perfect odds board races and playing the non efficient ones is the only thing that keeps us from going broke. I dont know about you fellas but it is a hard thing to do for me and I work on that every day when capping, but I tackle the race from a first-glance perspective that the board will be efficient and respect it immensely.

[alysheba88]

It's not about making money or not making money, it's about maximizing returns. For example, $60 win on an 18-1 in the last race brings a nice return. Handicapping the two prior races and betting only $10 to win with the rest used in late doubles and the late pick3 will more than double the return.
I'm handicapping the same way I always have, but a little creativity in the money management area has elevated me to my best year ever.

Not sure what exactly you are saying or disagreeing with.

While I understand the idea of maximizing returns my point above was more about being profitable or not being profitable. Clearly how one bets will determine that, the determing factor much more than handicapping. I do think the maximizing return stuff (and this from someone whose primary focus is exotics) leads to after the race second guessing which is counter productive. After hitting an exacta, someone will say shoudl have hit the triple. After hitting the pick 3 its should have hit the pick 4. Again I understand it but can be counter productive.

[alysheba88]

I respectfully disagree with this. I think gambling properly is extremely important. I would make an assumption that if you are near a break even handicapper overall who knows how to bet, you could do much, much better than someone else who is a break even handicapper who does not.

In tracking my results over "sessions", I noticed early on that my flat bet numbers on key plays were better than actual, and often times I ended up negative. Why? Action bets, were brutal, so if I could not cut them out I would have to bet size them at 1%. Why #2? My odds line, while doing fairly well was not perfect. I would size my bets higher based on perceived edge, but that perceived edge was wrong. I was betting too much on horses that lost, and betting too little on horses that won. False faves? I can find them. But I did not execute properly. Instead of looking for a decent edge in the place pool agaisnt a fave, or in pick 3's or doubles, I would use exactas and tris and that was a terrible hit rate for me. Bad habits and bad execution which went on and on and on.

About four years ago I dropped reading pure handicapping books and only read gambling ones. It helped me immensely. My experience has lead me to believe that: Can you win with a hit rate below payout rate? No. Can you lose with a hit rate above payout rate? Yes. And that is all money management and knowing how to gamble properly.



I very much agree with this. I posted this on another thread for the stagecoach story at the bottom, but it fits here:

http://www.probabilitytheory.info/topics/efficiency_betting_market.htm

It is the actual versus implied probability of the betfair horse market - a smooth curve. The only thing we have to go on is that each race is a unique event with small inefficiences. Staying away from the perfect odds board races and playing the non efficient ones is the only thing that keeps us from going broke. I dont know about you fellas but it is a hard thing to do for me and I work on that every day when capping, but I tackle the race from a first-glance perspective that the board will be efficient and respect it immensely.

Dean, may not have made myself clear here. I agree completely. I think it is far more important to be a good gambler than a good bettor. No disagreement there. I am just saying that it is an excuse for some- who are bad handicappers as well. Where they say I am a great handicapper but bad bettor. Like thats a badge of honor? First of all they probably arent as good a handicapper as they think. Secondly, why would you even brag about that? Spending too much time on the wrong thing. Learn to gamble first and then handicap.

[GaryG]

Learn to gamble first and then handicap.For me two two are inseparable. How do you learn to gamble if you don't have any sound opinions on who is likely to win??

[DeanT]

Hey Alysheba,

I apparently should spend less money and time reading gambling books and more time with reading comprehension books :D

I do agree with that for sure. The built in excuse we all use. "If I only woulda bet the ones I liked". Alot of times that is simply cover for losing races. We all do it, imo.

(Warning: Commercial for PTC)

That is why I think it is vitally important for ADW's to have bet tracking built in by type of bet like Ian has. Most tracks imo, think that if they show results it will show that people lose too much and they will stop betting. There is something to that I guess, but if we want to get better we have to be able to see where we stink and where we are good.

[DeanT]

For me two two are inseparable. How do you learn to gamble if you don't have any sound opinions on who is likely to win??

For me it goes like this: Good handicapper but bad gambler knows that horse a is most likely to win. Bets horse a no matter what because "if I win races I will be a winner". OK handicapper, but good gambler knows that horse a is most likely to win, but at 6-5 is a bad bet, so he scours the pools for overlays and sees that the 6-5 shot has 27% of the place pool and bets, or sits the race out because "winning races doesnt matter, good bets do".

[alysheba88]

For me two two are inseparable. How do you learn to gamble if you don't have any sound opinions on who is likely to win??

Well clearly its not all or nothing. You have to have some handicapping skills. But unless you know how to take advantage of that skill its meaningless. And most players seem to spend 98-99% of their time handicapping and the other 1% thinking about or actually betting. The picking winners mentality.

When your "handicapping" leads to an underlay its very hard for people to say, such and such is the best horse, but at those odds I cant play him

Here is an example.

[cj]

You are obviously correct.
But given the many different sets of data required to pick winning horses, the public does an outstanding job in setting the odds line.
My point is that they (actually, their money ) are as accurate as a guy calling heads or tails.

They are both playing against a “perfect odds lines
My point was to demonstrate, how difficult it is to overcome, in this 50-50 case, a 20% vig. 2 standard units gets you EVEN..

We have been through this 9,000 times.

The odds on a coin flip are perfect on every flip. The odds on a large set of horse races could indeed be perfect. The odds of the individual events can vary, and vary wildly. Until you get that, stick to craps.

[badcompany]

Personally, I think this thread is reaching the point of diminished returns so I will try to bow out shortly. Before my exit, I'll add a couple more points.

Using the prevailing wisdom here which seems to be a professional must:

1. Make a lot of money.
2. Have no other source of income.


First, I have an old friend and former client who is a psychiatrist in his day job. He is the best pure handicapper I have ever known, able to bring together data from multiple sources to produce powerful and profitable tickets. He made $250k+ from racing several years in a row. He maked $450k per year from his "job" and would not, therefore, qualify as a professional because it is not his only source of income.

Second, another successful player whom I have not spoken with in over a decade comes to mind. Race wagering was the sole support of his family living in San Francisco. He made just below $50k per year but could not seem to get his income above that and literally lived hand-to-mouth. He would not qualify because he did not make enough money.

Third comes an old man who used one of my wagering strategies about 12-13 years ago. He called me and said that he was retired, living on a fixed income (Social Security). He had always ground out $300-400 per month using one of the Sartin programs. The money management boosted him to over $2k per month. He doesn't qualify as "professional" because he doesn't make enough and has a secondary source of income.


As far as I am concerned, all three of these players are "at a professional level." Obviously, some are at a higher level than others but (in my mind) professional nonetheless.


Regards to all,
Dave Schwartz

IMO, only the second guy is a pro because he is the only one who needs to make money betting horses and depends on that money to pay his bills. The other two have no worries because they have their Psychiatry and Social Security money as safety nets. In other words, guys 1 & 3 can stop betting and still keep a roof over their heads.

[cj]

There are lots of pros in many different fields that don't need the money they earn to pay the bills.

One example would be Frank Sinatra. Was he not a professional actor? He certainly didn't need the money from acting.

[badcompany]

There are lots of pros in many different fields that don't need the money they earn to pay the bills.

One example would be Frank Sinatra. Was he not a professional actor? He certainly didn't need the money from acting.

I'm starting to thinking that a lot of people here are being willfully ignorant.

Frank Sinatra's BREAD AND BUTTER was singing.

Could Sinatra have made it as an actor had he not been a famous singer? We don't know. The same way we don't know if Dave's Psychiatrist and Social Security friends could make it as pro horseplayers without their safety nets. We do know the second guy can make it, even if he's only scraping by.

[Tom]

So bottom line, who the hell cares what your defintion of a professional is? It makes no difference to anything. Is a doctor who only donates his time to Doctor's Without Borders not a proffesional? Is a doctor who also writes text books, or cutting edge research books not a professional?

[Tee]

How difficult would it be to find someone who is living month to month strictly by playing the horses w/o having any extra money whatsoever?

When I go pro first thing I'm doing is hiring an agent and looking for an endorsement deal!! :)

That way if times get tough at the track I can still call my self a professional & have a little money to pay the bills.

[Tee]

On second thought forget the agent!!

How difficult would it be to find someone who is living month to month strictly by playing the horses w/o having any extra money whatsoever?

When I go pro first thing I'm doing is hiring an agent and looking for an endorsement deal!! :)

That way if times get tough at the track I can still call my self a professional & have a little money to pay the bills.

[Tee]

Poker Pro or Businessman?

http://www.cardplayer.com/magazine/article/15475

[Cratos]

Trying to calculate what percentage of the money wagered can beat this game.

In a data base of about 16,000 horses, there were 1733 winners.
Based on the odds (adjusted for take-out) there should have been
1734 winners.
The money wagered determined the correct odds.

The variance in the incremental odds ranges was greater than the total.
Example,in the 0 to 10 odds range there were 1200 winners compared to 1183 expected winners.
In the 11 to 20 odds range there were 418 winners compared to 423 expected winners.

To me that represents the same accuracy in predicting the flipping of a coin, heads or tails.

If the house took a 20% vig on a 50-50 proposition, your win probability would be 40% winners, 60% losers.

In 100 plays, the standard deviation would be sqrt(.4*.6*100) = 5

To break even you would have to win by 2 standard units.
The probability of achieving 2 positive standard units is about 2%.

Conclusion, in a 50-50 proposition, having a 20% vig, if it’s possible, only 2% percent of the money wagered to win can, over the long run ,breaks even.
A good overview, but you have clearly missed the target. The probability that you calculated is the “expected probability of the wagering public.” for a horse to win. This is not the probability of a horse winning a race.

The probability of any horse winning a race is a conditional probability based on the horse’s past performance (distance, pace, class, etc.) Each of those variables will have a weight and the sum of those weights will be between zero and one.

The sum would be horse’s historical probability of winning a race, not a given race because that probability will change depending on the variables of the race which the horse would be entered (again, distance, pace, class, etc).

However the biggest edge any bettor(s) get in a given race is when the majority of the bettors have overlooked something that the wagering bettors on a particular horse see about that horse and the horse wins.

Go back and take a look at a race where your horse did not win, but a longshot won. I used a longshot in this reference because I think longshots win when their abilities are either overlooked or under scrutinized by the wagering public.

Incidentally, the Law of Large Numbers tells that if a fair coin is flipped n-number of times, the probability will approach 50% heads and 50% tails, there is no edge.

[badcompany]

[QUOTE=Tee]How difficult would it be to find someone who is living month to month strictly by playing the horses w/o having any extra money whatsoever?

QUOTE]

While there are some people with 2 or 3 jobs, the overwhelming majority of the workforce has one thing that pays their bills: whether it be plumbing, carpentry, accounting etc.

For a pro horseplayer, that one thing would be betting on horses.

[badcompany]

Go back and take a look at a race where your horse did not win, but a longshot won. I used a longshot in this reference because I think longshots win when their abilities are either overlooked or under scrutinized by the wagering public.


I think Formula is saying that, over time, the overlays and underlays even themselves out: for every longshot that should've gone off at lower odds, there's one that should've gone off higher.

[Tee]

So if I sold invesment shares of whatever for millions of dollars & decided to play the horses full time would you consider me a professional horseplayer?

Oops I forgot no safety net.

Now that takes me back to the original question. Find me the plumbers, carpenters, accountants of the horse playing world.

As has been stated before - who would want that stress?




While there are some people with 2 or 3 jobs, the overwhelming majority of the workforce has one thing that pays their bills: whether it be plumbing, carpentry, accounting etc.

For a pro horseplayer, that one thing would be betting on horses.

[jma]

That’s easy JMA!

Just stand in line behind John Del Riccio and double down on his bets. The man is to Philly Park what Pat’s and Geno’s are to cheesesteaks! (Locked in; and thats no exaggeration!) :)

PS: Did I use “to” / “too” correctly? You guys have me so self conscious of my high school education I can barely type anymore! :blush: :D

Not sure about the grammar anymore buddy---you distracted me with the cheesesteak talk. :D

[Tee]

No disrespect to those who are making their living by playing the horses without the use of a "safety net."

My hat is off to you, but you are nucking futs!! :)

I'm out

[Hajck Hillstrom]

This is fascinating stuff…

In the spirit of one of my favorite guys…:ThmbUp:

Carry on…Carry on…:)Dan, I am humbled and honored by your sign off.

I really enjoyed this thread. The varied perspectives are what make this sport great.

I take the month of September off from handicapping to decompress and reapproach the game with a fresh outlook, but topics like this make me want to jump back in the fray and take advantage of the naysayers.

Like poker, thoroughbred handicapping is a game of patience and controlled agression. This dicotomy doesn't lend itself to the masses, and to the masses I want to say......

[Cratos]

I think Formula is saying that, over time, the overlays and underlays even themselves out: for every longshot that should've gone off at lower odds, there's one that should've gone off higher.


That is a good hypothesis if all bettors had perfect information and this was perfect competition, but it is not. The long term probability at any period in North American history of thoroughbred waging is about 1/3 for winning favorites. Also overlays and underlays are subjective based on the bettors’ profiles. If the bettors’ pool on a given race is bias toward risk-adverse bettors, the overlays or underlays would be different than a group of risk-preferred bettors.

This a very complex statistical problem.

[Tom]

http://www.michaeleatonconsulting.com/blog/archive/2005/08/29/656.aspx


Note item 3, under n

[GameTheory]

Getting back to the question of belief, positive-thinking, etc. It has been suggested that before you can succeed, you have to believe you can succeed, and attaining that belief can be pretty tough, which is why working with someone who is already winning (that you can see with your own eyes is doing so) can be so tremendously helpful. Now then, this belief thing is true enough within its own paradigm/context. That paradigm is that:

-- Your beliefs affect what you can do & cannot do.

-- Your beliefs have to match your actions.

-- Your beliefs are chosen by you.

This is the way the overwhelming majority of people think: i.e. beliefs are really important and you've got to "get them right" in order to get your life in order and succeed (achieve what you want).

So then, accepting this paradigm (which almost everyone does), people organize their lives around their beliefs -- their beliefs are central, therefore it is true that if you don't believe you can succeed at something, you probably won't.

I would like to offer a possibly more profound insight (which practically no one will accept) that beliefs are not very important, and it really doesn't matter what you believe once you reject the "belief" paradigm. Actually, you don't even have to reject it since that's just another belief. You just have to realize that your actions are not determined by your beliefs. Your actions are your actions, and you can do whatever you want in accordance with your beliefs or not. You see, I believe (ironically) that you can't choose your beliefs -- you believe what you believe and that's that. Your beliefs can change, of course, but generally you become convinced of new beliefs by experiences and circumstances, not by choice. Your new belief to replace your old one is forced upon you by some realization or new evidence encountered by experience, not just because you chose to believe differently. And once your belief has changed, you can't choose to go back to the old belief either -- you just believe what you believe. This is why Dave Schwartz suggested it was so powerful to be mentored by a winning player -- if you need your belief to change there is no way to do it other than by force of evidence to overwhelm your previous belief. However, what I am suggesting is to ignore your beliefs altogether and then you needn't bother worrying about whether you've got the right ones. Simply remove the question of belief from the paradigm -- beliefs are not relevant.

These ideas, by the way, are all directly from the work of Robert Fritz, who I find cuts through all the BS of the usual positive-thinking and success gurus and offers something that actually works (permanently) to achieve changes you'd like to see. There is no need to "psych" yourself out or achieve some certain "success" state of mind -- just live in reality with your eyes open, believe whatever you believe, feel whatever you feel, and get on with it. Determine what you want, determine where you are now (objectively), and then take steps to get from A to B.

[spilparc]

It doesn't matter how strongly you believe or what your "beliefs" are in the gambling business . . . if you don't have an edge.

[Gibbon]

...you have to believe you can succeed, and attaining that belief can be pretty tough.....accepting this paradigm (which almost everyone does), people organize their lives around their beliefs I believe pigs can fly. I believe I can beat Shaq one on one. I believe the Yankees need my fastball to win this years series.

......can't choose your beliefs....... experiences and circumstances, not by choice........ Robert Fritz....."psych" yourself out or achieve some certain "success" state of mind -- just live in reality with your eyes open, believe whatever you believe.....Determine what you want, determine where you are now (objectively), and then take steps to get from A to B. I would expect nothing less from a cosmological/biological evolutionist.
What you miss is the immaterial aspects of human consciousness. What you seem to be saying is; just like a family pet our free will is illusionary at the very least, terribly limited. What governs human beliefs systems and human behavior? Genetic interplay molded and expressed by interactions with our environment?

How bad is the desire to be a pro. Self sacrifice, self disciple, constant study guarantees…….nothing, any more than my belief I can beat Roger Federer.

GT, I enjoy your posts. But you fail to connect the dots. Poster Rook writes in an easy to read style because he is a gifted handicapper. HSH does not make him gifted rather Rook IS gifted. Perhaps it’s in his genetic code. Perhaps one day mathematicians will write an algorithm to mimic Rook’s track behavior???

Forecasting the future, whether it’s racing, football or weather patterns 30 years in advance - something ineffable, something immaterial is required. Look to history, long term, most experts are WRONG. The lone wolf crackpot mad geniuses are the ones who transform our futures. This is what makes Len Ragozin and other so mystical and misunderstood by ordinary handicappers.







____________________________
Losers live in the past. Winners learn from the past and enjoy working in the present toward the future. ~ Denis Waitley

[Dave Schwartz]

I believe pigs can fly. I believe I can beat Shaq one on one. I believe the Yankees need my fastball to win this years series.


Believe does not make you win but lack of believe can certainly stop you from winning.

BTW, I do not believe that you really believe those things. As someone whom I have absolutely no respect for once said, "Just because you said it does not make it so." <G>


In other words...

there is a difference between saying that you believe and actually believing.



Believing is not enough to create a positive reality but it may create a negative reality.
Examples:

"believing that I can jump across the Grand Canyon" does not give me the ability to do so.
However...
"believing that I cannot jump across this 4-foot wide stream" might cause me to get wet.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

PS: (GT has breathed new life into this thread. I'm back.)

[DanG]

I take the month of September off from handicapping to decompress and reapproach the game with a fresh outlook, but topics like this make me want to jump back in the fray and take advantage of the naysayers.

Well put…to “decompress”.

I also take off Fairplex (unless a monster comes along, then I’m obligated) I just have a hard time taking off NY this time of year after having a catalog of information built up from the summer. Some day it would be nice to get 3 months off a year to recharge as you correctly put it.

Maybe watch her for a while read a book on handicapping! :)

http://www.savvymiss.com/uploads/pics/BeachReads.jpg
Welcome back Hajck…welcome back! :ThmbUp:

[GameTheory]

I believe pigs can fly. I believe I can beat Shaq one on one. I believe the Yankees need my fastball to win this years series.Point being?

I would expect nothing less from a cosmological/biological evolutionist.
What you miss is the immaterial aspects of human consciousness. What you seem to be saying is; just like a family pet our free will is illusionary at the very least, terribly limited.I am not saying any such thing. I am saying nearly the opposite -- that our free will choices (and achievements) are not even constrained by our beliefs -- that we are in fact freer than most believe.


What governs human beliefs systems and human behavior? Genetic interplay molded and expressed by interactions with our environment?

How bad is the desire to be a pro. Self sacrifice, self disciple, constant study guarantees…….nothing, any more than my belief I can beat Roger Federer.

GT, I enjoy your posts. But you fail to connect the dots. Poster Rook writes in an easy to read style because he is a gifted handicapper. HSH does not make him gifted rather Rook IS gifted. Perhaps it’s in his genetic code. Perhaps one day mathematicians will write an algorithm to mimic Rook’s track behavior???

Forecasting the future, whether it’s racing, football or weather patterns 30 years in advance - something ineffable, something immaterial is required. Look to history, long term, most experts are WRONG. The lone wolf crackpot mad geniuses are the ones who transform our futures. This is what makes Len Ragozin and other so mystical and misunderstood by ordinary handicappers.I don't understand what you are getting at with any of this part.

[formula_2002]

[QUOTE=cj]We have been through this 9,000 times.

I thought I was being fair..I demonstrated mathematically what is required to break even in this game and, based on the math, even make a profit.
It all depends upon how far out you want to go into the tail of the curve.
Of course I don't fall into that group, as limited as I suspect it is, if indeed it exists at all.

But I will stand by-anyone here who claims to beat the game
To hell with the math (or lack of it) :)

[Capper Al]

http://www.michaeleatonconsulting.com/blog/archive/2005/08/29/656.aspx


Note item 3, under n

I agree with this. The problem is the high take out. A lot of us would be profitable if they cut it in half. Anyone being able to break even with this take out year after year is a professional.

[formula_2002]

Incidentally, the Law of Large Numbers tells that if a fair coin is flipped n-number of times, the probability will approach 50% heads and 50% tails, there is no edge.

the operative word is "approach".

sqrt(.5x.5x1,000,000)=500
"normally" in 1 million tries, there will be a 500 head or tails difference.
10,000,000 tries, there will be "normally" be a 1581 difference.

The professional gambler knows when the positive event will happen :)

[cj]

In your coin flipping scenario, if 18 times out of every 20 flips they offered even money on both, but 1 time out of twenty it was 1 to 2 on heads and 2 to 1 on tails, and 1 time 2 to 1 on heads and 1 to 2 on tails, you could easily be a winner. The whole set of coin flips would still have a "perfect" odds line. Yet, you could overcome a 20% advantage.

What you don't ever admit is that are people skillful enough to identify enough favorable situations to come out ahead. Apparently, we are all happy to just hand over 20% of everything we bet for entertainment, and any fluctuation from that is luck.

[jma]

It doesn't matter how strongly you believe or what your "beliefs" are in the gambling business . . . if you don't have an edge.

This is true, but the point was that a lack of belief in yourself or confidence that you can win keeps people from developing that edge. That was what I took from the posts, and I think it's very true. People like to throw up roadblocks to their own success, or to keep from thinking, "I failed." Those can keep the potential winner from winning, especially in as tough a game as this is.

[Capper Al]

It doesn't matter how strongly you believe or what your "beliefs" are in the gambling business . . . if you don't have an edge.

Amend. And most players, 99.9%, are losers but hopefully are having a good time. Which is okay. No one questions people attending football games or playing golf for the wisdom of the use of their money. With the horses most players will, at least, have their day a get a little something extra back once in a while.

We all start out as fans not making money. It is how we believe in ourselves that eventually will count. An oversimplified can do attitude probably won't do it. The player has to come to grips with what works and what doesn't by challenging the premises. The belief that one can challenge the premises and win is the central belief a winner must have. Everything else is make believe and non-sense. And, as the above quoted statement suggest, even this belief may not pan out.

[Rook]

GT, I enjoy your posts. But you fail to connect the dots. Poster Rook writes in an easy to read style because he is a gifted handicapper. HSH does not make him gifted rather Rook IS gifted. Perhaps it’s in his genetic code. Perhaps one day mathematicians will write an algorithm to mimic Rook’s track behavior???



Thanks Gibbon. That is one of the nicest things anybody has written about me. You are indeed correct that much of my horse betting success is due to my genetic code. Just like alcoholism runs in families, the gambling gene runs strong in mine. My mom goes to the casino about 5 times a week and so did my 87 year old grandma until she lost her driver's licence after collapsing in front of the casino. Even though my dad is at an age where most financial advisers say he should have about 70% in fixed income, he can't be bothered with any safe investments. He is only happy when he is flipping stocks on a daily basis.

It was pretty clear at an early age that I was not immune to the effects of this gene, as I was already betting with a classmate on the 1977 World Series when I was 9 years old. I got beat supporting the Dodgers and they also cost me the following year. By the time 1979 came around, there were several kids willing to take my action and this time the Pirates came through big time for me. (I won enough to buy about 50 packs of hockey cards and 25 comic books.:jump:)

With a gene like this, it can either be your achilles heel or you can turn it into your strength. I've posted a great deal about my past in previous posts so I won't go into detail but in summary: I paid my dues. For an entire year, my family and friends thought I was in university when in reality, I was spending all of my time in the university library looking at DRF microfiche.

Instead of going through the typical rituals associated with finding a wife and starting a family, virtually all of my 20s were spent at the racetrack or going through stacks of old racing forms testing every conceivable method. I still have the papers to show that I did enough work to earn several PhDs.

I'm writing this to argue that I don't think it is mainly my intelligence that got me into the comfortable position that I am in today. If I had been lazy or uninspired, I would have been in front of a classroom today instead of leisurely enjoying my afternoon at the Fort Erie Turfside Bar and Grill.

[Tom]

[QUOTE=cj]We have been through this 9,000 times.

I thought I was being fair..I demonstrated mathematically what is required to break even in this game and, based on the math, even make a profit.
It all depends upon how far out you want to go into the tail of the curve.
Of course I don't fall into that group, as limited as I suspect it is, if indeed it exists at all.

But I will stand by-anyone here who claims to beat the game
To hell with the math (or lack of it) :)

Where in your demonstartions do you address overlays and underlays?
There are no one horse races, so the interactions of 5-12 other horses has to impact the outcome. All 3-1 shots are not equal in the real world. If you can identify those that are underlays and not bet them, your whole premise is moot. Nobody bets every 3-1 shot, or 9-5, or favorite, or whatever. You are talking about being a non-participative observer - I am talking about being a handicapper.

[Indulto]

... BTW, I do not believe that you really believe those things. As someone whom I have absolutely no respect for once said, "Just because you said it does not make it so." <G>

In other words...

there is a difference between saying that you believe and actually believing.DS,
I always wondered about the purpose of the “<G>” that is unique to your posts. BTW do you really believe that repeating a statement from such a source says that failure to gain your respect is more insulting than rewarding? :confused:

Anyway, I thought it sounded familiar, and after several searches, I knew why. It was me in post #144 in the “Rebates” thread. I’m sure glad SOMEBODY read it: :D … To paraphrase an adage that used to continually appear on two competitive racing message boards, “Just saying it doesn’t make it so, no matter how many times it’s said.”Staying on-topic, IMO gambling requires an additional ingredient -- confidence -- that only comes from having succeeded on one's own. It is one thing to see someone else do it, to know how they did it, to know what you want, and how to achieve it, but quite another to actually get it done.

I assume that a player whose income is solely dependent upon wagering would generally have less confidence, initially, than one whose income is not. I also think that a player in a position to combine horseplaying with their primary occupation might enjoy enviable freedom from pressure and distraction, particularly if the decision support tools were customized to the individual player’s specification while additional overhead was minimal. But imagine a situation where either real or perceived success in wagering might further promote success in the primary endeavor, especially if it fostered belief in the endeavor’s product/service.

I believe faith is required to make a long-term commitment to add substantial overhead to one’s horseplaying, so it seemed reasonable to me that someday, someone sermonizing salvation through committable spending might subsequently appear before me. Maybe it's easier to make believe one believes when it makes others believe as well. ;)

With some understanding of what is involved in merging the intricacies of horseracing with the challenges of computer systems development and customer service, I have to respect your professional accomplishment and personal dedication. However, in most posts of yours that I’ve read over the last two years, I’ve increasingly found little to respect in your arguments, your opinions, or even your attempts at insults. :ThmbDown:

[Greyfox]

Amend. And most players, 99.9%, are losers but hopefully are having a good time..

Check yourself in to a facility.:lol:

[Dave Schwartz]

Indulto,

Well, it would appear that I owe you an apology. However, I did not mean you.

This was a phrase commonly used by my wife's ex-husband. The quote was applicable there.

Sincerely, I did not mean you. We do not always see eye-to-eye, but never would I have a reason to show you such disdain. You always respond courteously and respectfully to everyone... one cannot ask for more.



Respectfully,
Dave Schwartz

[Gibbon]

Point being......I don't understand what you are getting at.... A singer may truly believe his voice can shatter glass. With some patience and practice, compete in a talent show. By chance our singer runs into the raw, inbreed, natural endowment of Luciano Pavarotti. Our singer may uncomfortably realize his mediocrity despite HARD WORK.

Dave Schwartz was kind enough to relate an account of a retired acquaintance winning a couple dimes a month supplementing his check. Good for him. This is a choice.

Pavarotti can either choose to sing or not to sing. Some contend Pavarotti's destiny was never in his hands. Interestingly, both Pavarotti and Barry White hold fast to this predetermined view. What is clear, Pavarotti's talent is not by choice.

My competition is not the $2.00 masses, not the $200 dollar Sartinistas whose ego is bigger than his wallet. Rather the handful of Pavarotti's at Belmont coupled with takeouts.







________________________________
Talent is God given. Be humble. Fame is man-given. Be grateful. Conceit is self-given. Be careful. ~ John Wooden