Who will win the big race Super Derby?

[kyle2227]

Who do you guys think will win the big race? I'm thinking it will be Forty Acres and Grasshopper battling down to the finish. But what do you guys think?

[joeyreb]

Going Ballistic comes up and gets them

I have it 10-9-6

[Bobzilla]

Though I think it's likely Grasshopper will regress and win anyway, mostly because today's competition looks relatively weak, I'm trying to make a case for a few others.

Leonnatus Anteas is the wild card as he's competed on dirt only once and that was on the WO inner last year, a tough course to gauge performance on and one that was only being used at the time because the synthetic surface was being installed on the main course last year in Toronto. Could be a good race horse but may be light on saltiness, as would be the case with Past the Point.

Forty Acres could inject some early pace to this event, something that wasn't present in either of Grasshopper's last two events, not to take anything away from the latter as he performed professionally in both cases. I believe Forty Acres speed is legit, not cheap, and could create enough dissonance up forward to effect the outcome.

With that in mind, perhaps a weak case can be made for a runner who might be able to stay comfortably back, while saving ground, either from midpack or further back, and unleash a late charge. That's why I'm trying to gauge Beta Capo, and both of the Donnie Von Hemel horses, in terms of potential improvement, setup, form cycle, etc,etc. Historically, Cajun horses have represented themselves well in this event.

I don't follow LaD races like I do with NYRA tracks so I'm not familiar with any track nuances. Is there better relative footing towards the inside when the track is quickened for a showcase day? I can see Albarado maybe keeping Grasshopper to the outside and out of trouble. Is the footing even across? Doesn't sound like the weather should be a factor. I was at the Travers in Saratoga Springs, NY back on 8/25, and it was Hot Hazy Humid, extremely uncomfortable. Can't imagine it could be much worse in Louisiana today.

[TravisVOX]

We're looking at the low 90's today, with plenty of sun. Should be a great day.

I am awfully intrigued by the Canadian shipper as truly, he's done very little wrong. But the Super Derby goes through Grasshopper.

Let's hope it's a great race!

[Robert Fischer]

Grasshopper has some natural speed and can run 10 furlongs. He should shake off the entire 1st group of horses after a mile or so and keep on going. Albarado will have to avoid getting caught up in the speed - he doesn't need a perfect ride - just a smart one.

Most of these horses will be quitting at a mile and an eighth. The main
threats on paper are Beta Capo and Going Ballistic.

Beta Capo will probably be to close to the pace for his liking under the ride of Quinonez. He is probably a toss from at least the exacta.

Going Ballistic has never impressed me on dirt. most evidence seems to say he should stay turf and "pray for rain". At least GB figures to be running late and has to be a prescence in your .10 superfecta ticket.

longshot - Strong City he is a solid ungradedSTK/Allowance level closer for this circuit who looks to enjoy his first 9 furlong effort in a race full of forwardly placed milers. Get him up Hamilton!

[GaryG]

I don't see any way that Grasshopper bounces or regresses. He lays over this field.

[gIracing]

Neal Howard is one of the best in the business. Don't try to get fancy in this race. Take Grasshopper or pass.

[bellsbendboy]

While GRASSHOPPER is strictly the one to down two others have a punters chance of beating the 3-5 shot.

Leonnatus Anteas was the champion 2yo in Canada last year and may get first run on Forty Acres. His last three were against older and he was 6-5,6-5 and 3-2. An infection two days out, caused him to scratch out of the Queens Plate. This is a very, very nice horse!

Past The Point has improved every start and Darley does not buy many 2yo's. He has been brought along patiently and will surely run a new top.

Both Leonnatus' and Point are in excellent hands and are training forwardly with both working over their respective training surfaces in 1:11 and change, something few horses have EVER done. Conversely both pick up six pounds and sophomores are very weight sensitive, while 'Hopper drops two.

Playing anyone besides these three in the trifecta is a rebellion against general handicapping principles and will reduce ones bankroll. BBB

[Robert Fischer]

I like Anteas in general, but I question his ability to go 9 furlongs. I leave him off the exacta.

[gIracing]

I'm looking at it this way... I'm ont going to bet on Grasshopper loosing this race. it's really that simple. He might loose, but you aren't going to make a profit betting on Grasshopper loosing against this field.

Leonnatus couldn't win the worst rendition of the Queen's plate trail or the race itself...yet he's going to come down here and dominate this race. yeah.. i'll pass. Didn't he break his maiden at Indiana Downs?

your on some good stuff if you tihnk Pass the point has a chance in hell. He's 8 lengths worse than Grasshopper if not more. Grasshoppers last allowence win would have won the Stakes that Make the point lost by 4 lenghts.

again.. there are too many other betting opprotunities out there... I'm not betting on Grasshopper to loose unless he's osmething silly like 1/9

[dylbert]

G-R-A-S-S-H-O-P-P-E-R over four LaD pretenders and five supposed contenders...

GH will earn his victory because legitimate pace will get set. However, I look for classic Super Derby quarter pole move as GH clears field and wins by 4-plus lengths.

Grade 1 horses don't ship to Grade 2 race for place or show. Neil Howard has this colt tight and ready for big win here today!!! I will wave from just outside WINNER'S CIRCLE on HRTV...

[HorseRun]

Grasshopper wins easy......KEY over the 4 longest shots in the race

[TurfRuler]

Grasshopper wins easy......KEY over the 4 longest shots in the race

I've looked at this race from all of the angles of the Daily Racing Form's past performance pages. And it is still not clear cut who wins whether a front runner or a closer, a lightly raced 3 year old of one that has run in graded races and not been the winner. I had to pick something so I chose Pass the Point to win, he bobbled at the start of his last race. I also like Beta Capo and Going Balistic for the trifecta. Forty Acres I believe will prove why he was entered in a maiden claimer one day and the long straight at Louisiana Downs may be the proving ground. I had strongly consider the #8 until he was scratched from the race instead of Pass the Point. Grasshopper may win easily because of those speed figures, but I'm seen them lose many times with figures greater.

[Spendabuck85]

Going Ballistic comes up and gets them

I have it 10-9-6

Cold Trifecta - Nice call Joe.

[toetoe]

Round Eyed Barbarian,

Very nicely handycrapped. :ThmbUp: :jump: I gave a slight push to L. Anteas. :(

[judd]

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: nice pick joey
great job

[Robert Fischer]

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: nice pick joey
great job

:ThmbUp:

[DanG]

Going Ballistic comes up and gets them

I have it 10-9-6
Sweet Joey!!!

All the cash stays in Dallas Texas!!! :ThmbUp:

http://kingdomboundbooks.com/blog/cha_ching.jpg

[TravisVOX]

Nice pick! He was a findable in this spot. Going turf-to-dirt with prior success doing so. It was a very exciting race to boot!

[joeyreb]

Travis,

is Slew's Tissy hurt or something? Looks like his connections would have pointing him here.

I know the son of the owners of Noble Court, I was trying to get them to run him here, but he was injuried last start Del Mar. He'll be out until spring of 08, my friend said.