VALUE PLAYS FOR 9-21-07

[duckhunter3]

Okay, here's the deal. This is not for the faint hearted. We are looking for a significant price on a horse that is underestimated by the public. We play value only, RARELY a win bet at less than 3-1. Wins and exactas primarily and an occasional tri. No horizontal bets at the moment.
Looking for value can mean long losing streaks, but also nice profits: less plays, less cost and overhead, and larger returns. Below are my value plays for today (yesterday was quite good) with required betting odds. If nothing listed on odds, it is 3-1. If less or more it will be listed. Odds aren't there at post time, no bet. We sit on our hands and wait. Good luck and may the horse be with you. Listed in post time order.

LRL 1: 4-3, and 5(5@5-1).
TDN 4: 3, and 8@5-1, 9@7-1.
LRL 5: 4@5-2, 3@4-1, 5@5-1.
LRL 8: 4@5-2, 5@5-2. Box 4&5 if paying $20 or >.
LAD 7: 3-5-6-8-9. Bet all to win who are at 7-1 or >. Play all exacta combos of these 5 paying $80 or >.
LRL 10: 2-3-6-10-11. Bet all to win who are at 7-1 or >. Play all exacta combos of these 5 paying $80 or >.
CRC 8: 3-4, and 6@5-1.
TP 3: 8@4-1, 4@6-1, 1@5-1.
MED 6: 4@2-1, 6@6-1, 1@8-1.

[nobeyerspls]

Okay, here's the deal. This is not for the faint hearted. We are looking for a significant price on a horse that is underestimated by the public. We play value only, RARELY a win bet at less than 3-1. Wins and exactas primarily and an occasional tri. No horizontal bets at the moment.
Looking for value can mean long losing streaks, but also nice profits: less plays, less cost and overhead, and larger returns. Below are my value plays for today (yesterday was quite good) with required betting odds. If nothing listed on odds, it is 3-1. If less or more it will be listed. Odds aren't there at post time, no bet. We sit on our hands and wait. Good luck and may the horse be with you. Listed in post time order.

LRL 1: 4-3, and 5(5@5-1).
TDN 4: 3, and 8@5-1, 9@7-1.
LRL 5: 4@5-2, 3@4-1, 5@5-1.
LRL 8: 4@5-2, 5@5-2. Box 4&5 if paying $20 or >.
LAD 7: 3-5-6-8-9. Bet all to win who are at 7-1 or >. Play all exacta combos of these 5 paying $80 or >.
LRL 10: 2-3-6-10-11. Bet all to win who are at 7-1 or >. Play all exacta combos of these 5 paying $80 or >.
CRC 8: 3-4, and 6@5-1.
TP 3: 8@4-1, 4@6-1, 1@5-1.
MED 6: 4@2-1, 6@6-1, 1@8-1.

I too am a longshot player, leveraging up with exotics. Could you give a reason for backing some of these. One or two only as it would be too much to list them all. This way, win or lose, we see the reasoning behind the pick.

[duckhunter3]

When I have time I certainly will, but on my way to the track now. But here are some stabs at BEL.

BEL1: 3-4-6-9. Bet all to win at 6-1 or > and play all exacta combos paying $60 or more.
BEL 2: 3-5-6. Bet all to win at 5-1 or >, and play all exacta combos paying $36 or more.
BEL 7: 9@7-2, 5@6-1. Box 5/9 in exacta if pays more than $20.
BEL 8: 7@7-2, 4@6-1, 8@8-1.
BEL 9: 6@9-2, 12@5-1. Box 6/12 if pays more than $20./
May the horse be with you.

[judd]

thistle 4th nice excata & trifecta box

[duckhunter3]

It's been such a great day so far, I am tightening my belt. For what it's worth, I am not too keen at this point on the following races on my list: BEL 8, LAD 7, LRL10, and TP 3.

If I play anymore today, I will limit my consideration to the following races: LRL8M, BEL9, CRC8, and MED6.

May the horse be with you.

[duckhunter3]

I too am a longshot player, leveraging up with exotics. Could you give a reason for backing some of these. One or two only as it would be too much to list them all. This way, win or lose, we see the reasoning behind the pick.

I will try to answer this, but I am not sure we are on the same page. What I do is certainly not rocket science but it seems to work for me over the long haul. I don't want to go into great detail (because I am certainly not the world's greatest handicapper), but here is my approach to races and bets:
1. I look for 2 types of races: (a) one where I think there is a strong standout that has ML odds much greater than its chances of winning (ML overlay), so that there may be a chance this strong horse may have some decent odds at post; and (b) races that are extremely contentious with no standout where the money will be spread out and there will be opportunities for long odds on contenders.

2. I handicap these races using software and traditional handicapping principles (speed, pace, class, form, angles). In particular, I look carefully at which horses can run to the race pars, if it is not a chaos race.

3. I then identify who I think the contenders are and use a betting line giving fair odds to each contender.

4. I then look take a closer look at these contenders paying attention to (a) layoffs (have they run well off a layoff before, or does the trainer have a good record- 15% or greater win rate off layoffs); (b) bounce candidates, and there are many reasons for a potential bounce (horses that ran a new top in their last race- in cheap claiming races I try to avoid those unless big odds); (c) is there a reason to think positive form might go negative for any other reason than a bounce; (d) is there a reason to think that negative current form might turn positive (like 1st off a claim by a trainer who does well here, particularly if there is a class rise; or a second time starter trying something new (equipment, medication, distance, etc.) after a poor debut); (e) I consider carefully if the running style of the contender is in accord with what has been winning at this track and this surface and distance in the last month- i.e., is the horse's pace history consistent with the likely pace of the race- front runner winning, presser winning mostly, etc.; (f) I look at speed, class consistency, trainer/jockey, track bias ( post position), ability time, final time, best past races (which horses have run the best races in ALL of their past performances).

5. I know I am leaving out some things but that is the gist of it. I then decide whether any previous contender should be eliminated.

6. Of all remaining contenders, I bet VALUE. I don't try to pick THE WINNER for my bet. I bet the CONTENDERS who offer the best overlay to fair odds. THERE IS ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS: if a contender is a strong, strong legitimate favorite in my opinion, I tread carefully in betting against that horse even if the other contenders may have good value in post odds. I might pass the race or make token bets if I am getting 2 or 3 times fair odds. This is particularly true if the public has also made my strong favorite a strong favorite at post.

AND SO FOR ME TO GIVE A PARTICULAR REASON WHY I AM BACKING A MEDIUM PRICED OR LONG SHOT HORSE SORT OF MISSES THE POINT, BECAUSE I AM BACKING THE HORSE THAT I THINK HAS A CHANCE TO WIN AND HIS CHANCES ARE FAR, FAR, BETTER THAN THE PUBLIC'S OPINION. I want the situation where the public has overlooked something- like a shipper; that happens often.

I primarily make win bets and exactas and occasional trifectas. I keep it simple, and try to load up when there is a good opportunity. I often bet 2 horses to win, with more on the lower odds horse (in keeping with the Kelly Criteria). But I do not Dutch, because I think you are giving up too much profit by doing so. As you have seen in my selections, in those very contentious races, I just go for the gold, and bet the contenders to win that offer the value and all exacta combinations that are paying big premiums to fair pay for that exacta combination. For example, suppose you have a race with 4 contenders that you cannot separate logically. So make each of them 4-1 fair odds giving all 4 an 80% chance of winning, and the rest of the field a 20% chance of winning. Bet all of the 4 that are going off at a 50% premium at least (6-1), and all exacta combinations that are 50% pay over fair pay. For 2 4-1 horses on your betting line, fair pay for any exacta combination would be $40. So you want those exacta combos that are paying at least $60. these exactas hit so rarely and there are so many things that can happen in a race that you need to DEMAND value, in my opinion.

In conclusion, there might be a myriad of things that make me back a high priced horse. But they all are wound up in the fact that I have decided this horse is a contender NO MATTER WHAT THE PUBLIC THINKS.

Hope this helps, nobeyerspls. I think Cliff Smith on this web site is generally in agreement with this approach (except perhaps my comments on "dutching).

All the best and may the horse be with you.