Weighing or Polling!

[jfdinneen]

The day before an election for political office you want to place a wager on the likely winner (candidate whose weight is closest match to ideal weight for office) so I offer you the choice of two key sources of information:
a) List of weighing results for last six months, current fitness regimens, and dieting schedules for all candidates.
b) Latest poll result showing which candidate voting public believes will be closest match to ideal weight on election day.

Which source of information do you choose?
On the one hand, if you choose the results for the last six months you can project the likely weight of each candidate for tomorrow’s election and you could also generate an odds line for the field of candidates. However, this approach is limited by your own aptitude level and relevant experience. Other ‘handicappers’ may trump you on one or both counts. That said, however, you are able to provide a reasonable explanation (if asked) for your selection of the likely winner based on the data provided.

On the other hand, if you choose the latest poll result you will have the odds line of the best ‘handicapper’ (voting public) in the business with the most likely winner automatically identified for you but without any explanation of why that selection is the best one.

Which source of information is better and why?

[46zilzal]

There is no simple answer to this. Rational people use differing yardstick depending upon the choices offered. This makes it overly simplistic.

[jfdinneen]

Fundamental or Technical Analysis of Short-Term Futures Markets
* Historical Data
* Latest Voting Poll
* Both Historical Data and Latest Voting Poll
* Neither Historical Data nor Latest Voting Poll

The title of the poll should read 'Markets' not 'Markers' and the last option should have 'nor' instead of 'and'

Best wishes,

John

[facorsig]

Latest voting poll because studies have shown than the public does not fully consider recent information. The handicapping corollary is post time odds. I believe the author of the book is Burton Fabricand.


Fred

[jfdinneen]

As you will no doubt have already worked out:




horse race is a short-term futures market;
weighings, fitness regimens, and dieting schedules are the past performances;and
latest poll result is the tote board.
By using indirection, the example tries to leave behind all the emotional baggage of the two prevailing religions (fundamental and technical analysis) while exploring the relative contributions of both types of information in a comparatively neutral context.

Best wishes,

John