Late odds changes

[trigger]

http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=40860

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/national-news/2007/September/18/Late-odds-changes-inevitable-under-current-model.aspx

[cj]

How funny is this?

“It’s a slow progression,” Scherf said. “We’re not going to solve the problem this year, and we’re not going to solve the problem next year.”

I guess it isn't really a problem then, is it?

[Not4Love]

What a joke. More than half the money in the win pool is being bet with less than one minute to post. This happens very often.

[njcurveball]

What a joke. More than half the money in the win pool is being bet with less than one minute to post. This happens very often.

Wait till more on-line services get a conditional wagering interface. You can only push the time back so far with post time being relative to when the starter pushes the button.

With a conditional bet of 1 minute to post at a track like Charles Town, getting 5-1 may mean you still wind up with 8-5 when they cross the finish line.

If you think odds are dropping crazy now, wait till the conditionals target the overlays in the pools.

It is a much different world from when people tried to get their bets in with 3 minutes to go so they could secure a good place to watch the race.

Now there are large groups of people on the Internet with bets ready to go at the touch of a button.

[SMOO]

Wait till more on-line services get a conditional wagering interface. You can only push the time back so far with post time being relative to when the starter pushes the button.

With a conditional bet of 1 minute to post at a track like Charles Town, getting 5-1 may mean you still wind up with 8-5 when they cross the finish line.

If you think odds are dropping crazy now, wait till the conditionals target the overlays in the pools.

It is a much different world from when people tried to get their bets in with 3 minutes to go so they could secure a good place to watch the race.

Now there are large groups of people on the Internet with bets ready to go at the touch of a button.

Someone planning a large bet (no matter what the odds) might be better off putting the bet in early, just to keep the odds low enough where other money won't trigger in late.

[cj]

Someone planning a large bet (no matter what the odds) might be better off putting the bet in early, just to keep the odds low enough where other money won't trigger in late.

I believe Ernie Dahlman is an advocate of this.

[Tom]

Maybe I'm just old fashioned, but this whole thing about tied intot the pools, using software to make bets.....seems to me this is what is going to kill the game, not drugs, poly, slots, etc. At some point, the game will blind betting for all but the fastest operting systems and best software. Once the "whale eat up all the little fish, it will whale to whale. If I have to go "hi tech" and turn the betting into a second job, it sure won't be in horse racing.

I think it should be everyone bets either by the same phone line or internet sites, you takes your chances, you makes your bets.

[takeout]

With a conditional bet of 1 minute to post at a track like Charles Town, getting 5-1 may mean you still wind up with 8-5 when they cross the finish line.
Amen. Half the money at CT comes in while the race is being run. :bang:

[Vigors]

.....if they adopted a process similar to what you suggest, the whale's would
just pay programmer's to adapt software which would allow them to
"bump in line" ( not unlike the software which people used to call in radio
stations to win major prizes )....BUT, that being said, all the other " less
then 'Die-Hard' player's..which mean's EVERYONE NOT on this board..would
seek other gaming with less frustion...ergo, maybe your suggestion could
bring us back to the "good 'ole day's" 10 year's ago.......

or

by bringing our boy's home even a week earlier from Iraq, would give
us at least $1,000,000,000 to either pay the guy's over in Santa Monica
( directly across the street from the courthouse, on Main st. ) to come
up with an idea that WOULDN'T take at least 2 year's......

or

Why not use the world's oldest profession and just bribe the sob's
that CAN do something about this betting fiasco ( I believe I still have
Charly Sheen's number )

[northerndancer]

The issue I have is the industry has not produced the facts to determine exactly who, what and when is causing the themajor shift in odds fromt he last tote cycle. Since the industry has record of the wagers (when they were made and from what outlet) why has there not been a study done of 500 races to determine difinitively when and from what source the wagers are coming from..... if we can determine where and when then and only then can we devise a potential solution. At the present time we are jsut guessing at the cause of the situation.

A few things to ponder:

1. Of the 15 billion wagered on North American racing product annually 10% is wagered by the high volume players (whales), 20% is wagered on track and 70% comes from SPMO's (simulcast outlets);
2. The tote cycle is currently set at 45 - 60 seconds no matter if the race is 15 minutes to post or 1 minute to post;
3. If the pools close at the ring of the bell for the start of the race there will always be one more cycle therefore odds change will always happen;

A few suggestions:

1. If there are currently 20 tote cycles for each race I would recommned taking and changing when they occurr...... from the opening of the pool until 4 minutes to post the tote cylce should be every 2 minutes....... from 4 minutes to 2 minutes the tote cycle should be 1 minute...... from 2 minutes out the tote cycle should be every 20 seconds. This would reduce the amount handled in the cycle that takes place after the race is started therefore reducing the effect from that cycle on the odds. The problem with this is you will need the tote companies to buy in to the process and that is why I would suggest that you allow the tote companies to continue with the same number of cycles therefore not increasing their overall costs;

2. If you close the pools when the first horse is loaded you can not reopen the pools. As a result if a horse is scratched at the gate (Charles Town can have 3 or 4 of those a night or a race) you will not be able to change your wager due to a scratch causing major issues for your multi race wagers;

3. The industry has to require the SPMO's (simulcast outlets) to send their wagers on a more timely schedule. Their are SPMO's who will transmit at 8 minutes and then not until 2 minutes then after the pool has been closed. If you require the SPMO to transmit their wagers on a set schedule (every 2 minute from 8 MTP in) you will assist in reducing the amount of wagers being reported in the cycle after the pools have closed;

IMO the industry does not want to inform the public of the real causes to the issue......... the causes are due to their own inefficient and neglitent management of their wagers.

[Tom Barrister]

That's my gripe, too. We have cutting edge computer technology and high speed bandwidth, but the toteboards and odds updates work the same as they did decades ago.

[Kelso]

The issue I have is the industry has not produced the facts to determine exactly who, what and when is causing the themajor shift in odds fromt he last tote cycle.

<snip>

A few suggestions:

1. If there are currently 20 tote cycles for each race I would recommned taking and changing when they occurr...... from the opening of the pool until 4 minutes to post the tote cylce should be every 2 minutes....... from 4 minutes to 2 minutes the tote cycle should be 1 minute...... from 2 minutes out the tote cycle should be every 20 seconds. This would reduce the amount handled in the cycle that takes place after the race is started therefore reducing the effect from that cycle on the odds. The problem with this is you will need the tote companies to buy in to the process and that is why I would suggest that you allow the tote companies to continue with the same number of cycles therefore not increasing their overall costs;

2. If you close the pools when the first horse is loaded you can not reopen the pools. As a result if a horse is scratched at the gate (Charles Town can have 3 or 4 of those a night or a race) you will not be able to change your wager due to a scratch causing major issues for your multi race wagers;

3. The industry has to require the SPMO's (simulcast outlets) to send their wagers on a more timely schedule. Their are SPMO's who will transmit at 8 minutes and then not until 2 minutes then after the pool has been closed. If you require the SPMO to transmit their wagers on a set schedule (every 2 minute from 8 MTP in) you will assist in reducing the amount of wagers being reported in the cycle after the pools have closed;

IMO the industry does not want to inform the public of the real causes to the issue......... the causes are due to their own inefficient and neglitent management of their wagers.


I think you nailed it on all counts, ND. And the best track management can offer in response is "We’re not going to solve the problem this year, and we’re not going to solve the problem next year.” The industry is characterized by highly placed, abject morons.

Get all the bets in ... and posted ... before the first horse loads. Gate scratch? Deal with it. You get your money back ... better than betting a horse whose trainer has him in for "conditioning." There are many more races to follow.

Any other system of finalizing/publicizing the pools ... somebody's cheating somewhere, big time. But, in response we get, “We’re not going to solve the problem this year, and we’re not going to solve the problem next year.”

That shameful statement makes that "new paradigm" simpleton at CD look positively brilliant.

[DJofSD]

"We do not want to solve the problem this year, and we’re not going to want to solve the problem next year."

[PaceAdvantage]

Maybe I'm just old fashioned, but this whole thing about tied intot the pools, using software to make bets.....seems to me this is what is going to kill the game, not drugs, poly, slots, etc. I don't agree at all (maybe because I try and utilize this technology myself). Drugs and cheats are the biggest threat, IMO.

Whales killing the odds on one horse only means the odds are going to go up on other horses, creating overlays in the process. In the end, it's all going to even out....just like it always has....

And always remember, you can't stop technology....just ask this guy:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/f/f7/Unabomber1.jpg/200px-Unabomber1.jpg (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Unabomber1.jpg)

[Overlay]

Whales killing the odds on one horse only means the odds are going to go up on other horses, creating overlays in the process. In the end, it's all going to even out....just like it always has....

"For every underlay that occurs as a result of system betting or activity by big plungers, there has to be an effect of causing other horses in the field to go off at odds that are higher than they would be otherwise, and potentially higher than the horses' actual probability of winning." (Posted on the Handicapping Library board)

Looks like we're on the same wavelength, PA.

[Tom]

...Whales killing the odds on one horse only means the odds are going to go up on other horses, creating overlays in the process. In the end, it's all going to even out....just like it always has....

And always remember, you can't stop technology....just ask this guy:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/f/f7/Unabomber1.jpg/200px-Unabomber1.jpg (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Unabomber1.jpg)


Lot of good that does me when thye all go up after the gate opens. I find racing less an less satisfying, and I'm not lone out here. I can see life without horses as a definite in my future.

Maybe I should write a manifesto.:eek: