THE CHINESE DOUBLE

[karlskorner]

It has many names. Ever hear of it ? For those that haven't and would like to learn it I offer the following:

2nd race at CRC today, bottom half of the early double. You divide the M/L into the DD double payoff. Example

1. M/L 20/1 DD payoff $122.00 Divide 20 into 122 = 6
2. M/L 3/1 " " 24.00 3 into 24 = 8
3. M/L 8/1 " " 133.00 8 into 133 = 17
4. M/L 2/1 " " 21.00 2 into 21 = 10
5. M/L 10/1 " " 121.00 10 into 121 = 12
6. M/L 10/1 " " 135.00 10 into 135 = 14
7. M/L 5/2 " " 15.00 5/2 into 15 = 6
8. M/L 12/1 " " 190.00 12 into 190 = 16

You are looking for the lowest 3 numbers, in this case 1/7/2

It came in 1/7/2

#1 $38.00 win price
Exacta $129.60 (usually pays more than DD payoff)
Trifecta $472.20

Why does it work, like my "key" races, I don't know. How often does it work ? Would you believe 7 out of 10 times.

Have a Happy and Prosperous New Year.

[sq764]

I have also heard of people using this method with pick 3 payouts. I guess its a good way to find out who the public likes, since the pick 3 pool is probably one of the few places you can hide money..

[Larry Hamilton]

"How To Pick Winners, Al Illich, p159. 1971

Mr. Illich called this play "The Secret Play--The best Play in Racing". In fact, the best way to take advantage of this play is hire Game Theory to create a program that goes to ALL toteboards and identifies all races with the first half of dd's which have finished, gets the will plays and calculate the hidden odds.

Mr Illich did do one thing more than mentioned above, he gave himself a 4 point edge requirement.

Long time ago, I followed this angle myself, but without computer, and without extensive simulcast, it was like watching paint dry. However, it came up two times for me, once at Birmingham Race Cource and one time on simulcast at Arlington--won both times. With the advantage of todays electronic gee whiz stuff, you can be a nicely rewarded niche player here.

What you are wagering on is that you have identifyed that someone is putting a ton of money in this pool so that the general public wont see the bet. It actually makes sense.

ps..I forgot something...If the fav or 2nd fav have the best new odds- chunk them and the race, the pool is hiding nothing

[Derek2U]

Hey Guys, First of all, Happy 03 etc etc.

Now, for my 1st silly question of this NewYear: Can I get the
ML from the DRF or must I use the track program? Explain
please because I like that Chinese formula.

Derek

[Larry Hamilton]

whoops, sorry, comment was directed to me

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by Larry Hamilton
"How To Pick Winners, Al Illich, p159. 1971

Mr. Illich called this play "The Secret Play--The best Play in Racing". In fact, the best way to take advantage of this play is hire Game Theory to create a program that goes to ALL toteboards and identifies all races with the first half of dd's which have finished, gets the will plays and calculate the hidden odds.


Hmmm...

Maybe I'll hire myself to do that -- I get a special discount, after all.

[CapperLou]

Karl & Larry:

I have been using Al Illich's method since 1971 when I purchased his book. I just looked at the book--it is in mint condition like all of my other collectibles.

This has been one of the very good spot play methods that I have used over the long haul. I always look for the ones that are long prices such as the one Karl cites in his post. I have had great success with this method--it has always been and remains one of MY BEST SPOT PLAYS!!!

!!Happy New Year to Everyone!!

CapperLou

[Larry Hamilton]

Game Theory:

Count me in

Larry

[jackad]

Me too.
Jack

[sq764]

I read something along these lines, it was called "Mr Trifecta".. It used the pick 3 theory as well.

[Tom]

I thought that you used the actual odds, not the ML.
Been ahile since I read that book.
Anyway, a program to ddo this?
Count me in as a backer.

[karlskorner]

You are using the M/L whether it's from DRF or Program (they are both the same). The #1 horse M/L was 20/1, dropped to 18/1 at post time, which hid the intent. Met Duke Davis (trainer of #1) in the paddock this afternoon and questioned why the owner didn't play his horse to win, as he is a heavy bettor, said he put it all in the exotics, went home with a large envelope.

What you are looking for is a horse with a double digit M/L, which stays near the M/L at post time, yet produces a low number such as the 6 described above. Today all the #'s were from 20-48, the 20 won and paid $3.80. Will it work in other exotics such as a Pick 3, I don't know as you are playing beyond the next race, seems to me if you like a horse in the 3rd leg of a Pick 3, you have to do All All to cover your self.

I am not sure who came up with the "system", never really cared, as I said in my post it comes under many names, but it has been good to me for 20 years. Chinese Double sort of has a ring to it.

[CapperLou]

Karl:

As I mentioned in my earlier post, I have been doing quite well with this since 1971--when I saw Illich's method in his book.

I'll be out to Gulfstream starting this weekend. Send me a PM sometime and we can meet one day there if you like. We just might "recognize" one another!!!

All the Best,

CapperLou

[levinmpa]

I used this "Bet Down Double" method exclusively for nearly a year. I had some nice winners with it, but I'm not convinced of it's validity over the long run. Unfortunately I do not have the time to do a long term study on this angle. I would like to see more data on it.

Also, I have no confidence playing this method at minor tracks or at mid-level tracks(BM, Del, GG etc..) with rolling doubles. The pools can be quite small and the numbers can't be trusted.

Just my 2 cents.

[andicap]

if Mr. Davis cashed out with the exacta, why wouldn't this work with exactas?

Karl, how often do you play this bet?? When do you know to pull the trigger, when the board tells you a longshot is getting big exotic money?
Or any mid-odds ranged horse getting a lot of money?

[karlskorner]

Your question: Why wouldn't this work with exactas ?

I am not sure that it would work with exactas, with an exacta you and everyone else can view the "payouts" and determine where the money is going ala Ernie Dahlman.

In this case the money has been and is hidden from you, it's there but you and others never know how it got there, the only information supplied to you is what the DD will pay at the end of the 2nd race, the M/L against the payout is really all you have to work with to determine where the heavy money went.

Do I play it everyday ? Just about, it's been good to me. Very few will bother to write down the DD's payouts and do the math. Today the low # only paid $6.40 ( I am not to proud to get back 2 1/2 times what I put into the race, forget the ROI's). Aside from my "key races", there were 5 today , 3 won, I am strictly a win bettor.

[smf]

Karl,

Straightforeward question;

You stated that you leave the track early when you've done well in the early races. Get up, go to the car, drive home.

That being the case, why would you do that when you have a "70% play" waiting for you at the end of the card? That late Double has to be worth hanging around for, assuming it's a "70% play" as you state it to be.

[LOU M.]

I to would like to know after you have got the three lowest #'s how you bet them. You said you are a win bettor, do you dutch both or all three? Take just the lowest? Thanks.

[karlskorner]

You have been asking me this question, in various forms, for the past several months and I thought I answered to your satisfaction. Apparently not.

I go to the track with a set amount of dollars, with the intent of makeing identical wagers on each and every race I play. At any time during the day I should DOUBLE this amount. I GO HOME. As I have expressed in past posts, I do not believe that LUCK or CHANCE plays a part in my daily wagering. Agreed I have a 70% probability of winning the late DD, but I have in my left front pocket what I came for.

You and your friend GR1 took some pleasure in the past in pointing out that I was home early and on this board during the GP meet ( I would think both of you had better things to do with your time then track what time I came home )

Today is the frist day of racing at GP, if I do well, I'll be on the board early.

[karlskorner]

The lowest #. In the case of the race I used for an example above, both the #7 & #1 were 6's. The 7 was on the board at 5/2, the #1 was M/L 20/1, off at 18/1. The #1 was a 3 class drop down (some would say 4). #7 would return $7.00, #1 $38.00, which would you play ?

[smf]

Karl,

"Asking this question for the past several months"...??Huh? I haven't posted *anything* to you in 6 months! You're a real piece of defensive work, LOL.


In any event, your theory of "going home" early is a casino mindset that I find, well, amusing. You post that luck has little to do with betting (gordon pine thread), yet you apply superstition on a daily basis and pass on "70% plays".

Most good players agree that luck has little to do w/ the overall outcome. Also; Most good players don't turn their noses up at "70% plays".

I'm leaving for Lone Star in a few minutes karl. I won't be home early, either. Pays to watch all the races for my track, take notes and watch the horses in the paddock as much as I can.

Good luck finding your way around the voting booth next year.

[andicap]

Originally posted by karlskorner
The lowest #. In the case of the race I used for an example above, both the #7 & #1 were 6's. The 7 was on the board at 5/2, the #1 was M/L 20/1, off at 18/1. The #1 was a 3 class drop down (some would say 4). #7 would return $7.00, #1 $38.00, which would you play ?

gee, Karl, sounds like a value play to me.:)

Also, on leaving early. To me this is a matter of personal comfort. Yes, to some of us it doesn't make sense to leave early if you have a good bet late. After all, betting is not confined a single 10-race card, but a continuum of 365 days (or however many you play) cards. taking how you do in a single day is arbitrary.
Having said that, I can see Karl's point as well. Everyone needs to gamble how they feel comfortable. Beyer points this out in one of his books. We all have different styles. Karl wants to have a profit every day and is proficient enough at picking his low-priced horses to be able do this. This is his comfort level. Psychologicially he would be uncomfortable being head after 6 races and then leaving behind or up a small amount. This would hurt him the next day as he might try to make up his losses. (unconsciously of course).
I'd love to be able to make $400 every day at the track. That's a nice living.

I see no point in criticizing someone's style of play. It's a highly personal thing.
HOWEVER, SMF is right to point out that technically it is quite illogical.
I guess SMF is Spock and Karl is Bones.

[Tom]

Dammit, andicap, he's a gambler, not a doctor! <G>
Fascinating!
Me, I'm Scotty.....I can't do it Cap'n, I got no power!

[takeout]

Originally posted by karlskorner
I go to the track with a set amount of dollars, with the intent of makeing identical wagers on each and every race I play.
Karlskorner,
Concerning daily bankroll, how do you handle not knowing how many Chinese Double plays you may encounter on a given day?

[hurrikane]

well....to each their own. I know if I had a 70% play with a positive ROI coming twice every day I would make damn sure I played it. Even at the pathetic 6% ROI I see touted arouund this board it would make good money.

[CapperLou]

Hurricane:

As I mentioned in an earlier post on this thread--I have been using the secret play method outlined in Al Illich's book since 1971. The Chinese Double is basically the same thing.
I am at the Florida track daily---CRC & GP!! Today I'm home due to a lousy cold.
I have been doing very, very well using this spot play method for decades. And yes---I always stay for the late double & if I cannot stay on any given day--I have someone at the track who takes care of the late double for me if there is a play. He is a trusted person who I have known for years and who values my advice every day at the track.
I do not know Karl--like I said in earlier post--I might recognize him if I met him--I know most of the regulars at FL tracks.
It seems to me if he were serious---like I am---he would certainly stay for the last double when he is there or make arrangements with someone as I have. I don't get it---well--I actually do---he probably does not care--and that's his call!!!
Me, I like money---so I'm always there in person or by proxy.

All the best,

CapperLou

[LOU M.]

Gotta love your name. You mention "if it's a play",does that mean there are other rules or conditions to this play?This isn't an automatic bet?Thanks for your reply.

[hurrikane]

wondering if anyone out there has the daily double info in their data. Curious how this plays out across all tracks?

Capper,
it is an interesting play. I track oddities in the exactas all the time but had'nt thougth of this one. Very interesting!

[CapperLou]

LOU M & Hurricane:

Lou: I use Al Illich's method. You can use the Chinese Double method & you will get more plays. With the Secret Play method--you toss out the first two favorites in the race and go from there and are looking for a spread of 4 pts or more after the division of the ML odds into the amount the double will pay.

You will get more plays with Chinese Double & less with Secret Play--I use Secret Play and am looking for priced horses--horses that are at least 5-1 or more. I get a lot of winners that pay in the 20's & 30's--have had winners paying in 50's -70's many times.

Hurricane:

The exacta pools and odds are there for everyone to see--no one can see the Secret Play--that's how the owners or trainers who bet can hide the money. Of course--that's where the "edge" is and that is why it is a very good spot play method with an outstanding ROI.
You can find things in exacta numbers also--as you know--BUT, it's an entirely different proposition.

Hope this helps you both--

All the Best,

CapperLou

P.S. The first person who called me CapperLou was the great trainer Burley Parke--original and longtime trainer of the HARBOR VIEW FARM--and one of the famous Parke brothers---and that was when I was in college and was an amateur handicapper just learning. I've known many great trainers and NOBODY was any better than B. Parke.

[karlskorner]

Maybe my day at GP will help you understand my thinking.
Race winning payoffs:

1. 7.80
2. 18.40
3. 11.80
4. 16.60
5. 26.60
6. 24.80
7. 25.80
8. 11.80
9. 25.80
10. 7.40

I won the 1st, lost the 2nd (chinese double came in 2nd which was also my play) won the 3, 4th and 5th, at this point I am up $628.00, less the $200 I invested, I am holding a profit of $428.00. Did I go home ? No. It was a great begining of a new meet and the place was a zoo and I'm "hot".

I LOST races 6 thru 10 (notice the payoffs), I had a profit of $428.00 which slid to a profit of $228 for the day because I thought the Gods of racing were sitting on my shoulder and then came home and read some of the comments on this post. Don't tell me when it's time to go home.

[JimG]

Originally posted by Tom
Dammit, andicap, he's a gambler, not a doctor! <G>
Fascinating!
Me, I'm Scotty.....I can't do it Cap'n, I got no power!

I guess I'm Sulose<g>

Jim

[CapperLou]

Hi Karl:

I LOVE IT!!!!!

I'm sitting home today with this lousy cold and I'm laughing my ------off!!!!
You Da Man!!!!!

It was a good opening day for me too--had the 1st, 4th, & 5th!
Best Bet of day was Prime Queen--$ 16.60--stood out a country mile for me.
BUT, a horse I've been following since it ran at Delaware this summer---TAMA-- ran 2nd in the 7th--I cashed a place bet on her, but would have had a "Large Envelope" if she had won!!

All the best,

CapperLou

[smf]

Originally posted by karlskorner
I would think both of you had better things to do with your time then track what time I came home



karl,

No one is tracking when you are on. At the bottom of the page is a roster of who all is logged on the board.

Look at it on the bright side---since your Chinese Double failed you twice today, you're in line to hit it 7 of the next 8 times, lololol.

[sligg]

I remember back in the early 1990's using this method. I used to chart the tote board back in those days but after awhile I abandoned The Secret Play because I wasn't able to maintain a consistent profit.

The current board has certainly perked my interest. I still have my flash by flash tote charts with a special column for the DD bet. I will see if it had any validity.

I just checked about twenty charts and there are no profits that I see. And I had classic Illich bets, for example one bet had a ML of 20/1, OL of 3/1 then drifted up to 16/1. The DD payoff was $62 giving a proportionate odds of 3.1. The next ranked horse had proportionate odds of 11.6. This was a perfect play. Secret money in the double and tote action to win. The horse did absolutely nothing and ran out of the money. There were no negatives in this race. My comment on this chart was that Illich's Secret Play was a loser. I have several years of charts and if this method was a winner I would have still been playing it. Maybe things have changed now. I also checked the Chinese Double and that did not fare well either. My charts are for the NY circuit.

In chapter 19, where he discusses this method, Illich also says on page 161, third paragraph that this is one of the two best plays in racing. Then talks about Robert Rowe who has the other best play. But Illich doesn't say what that play is.

Does anyone know what that other secret play is?

[andicap]

Could the Chinese Double be track specific? Works at Calder, but not in New York?

[karlskorner]

When Al Illich wrote his book, there was no such thing as "the Late Double", at least not in my memory. Did anybody seriously ever look at the last race of the day, or what Willam Murray called the "nite cap". There are desperate people playing the last race of the day, trying desperate measures to recoup their losses for the day. To call the "double " of the first 2 races with the "double" of the last 2 races one in the same, is comparing apples and oranges. Strange wagers are heavily placed on horses that never should be considered, by people trying to win with a "long shot" and maybe get LUCKY.

Exacts, Trifectas, Pick 3/4/6's, Superecta's, late double and more gimmick wagering to come, all thought up by PROFIT hungry management offering the public the oppourtinity to "catch lightning in a bottle". Did I mention "take out"

[CapperLou]

Karl:

You are 100% correct about "late double"--I get very few plays in the late double.
What I do get in the last race is great opportunities for big overlays on my selection in the race--if I have a play in the race.

Everyone is playing the exotics trying to get even and the win pool is always neglected--almost always.
The punters who are left are all over the place in the exotic betting and it sets up overlays in the win pool.
The best recent example that I had was in September at Calder when a first time starter going back to Seattle Slew or out of Seattle Slew (cannot remember this early in AM) was in a 12,500 mdn clm in last race and paid $59.60. I was there late for that one and went home with a "package" as they say!!!

Today's card at Gulfstream looks much tougher than opening day!!! Good Luck!!!

CapperLou

[sligg]

andicap,

It seems to me that these daily double bets should work at most tracks. Are trainers any different from track to track?

I remember getting frustrated when a perfect double bet came up. It's okay to lose but when the horse shows no effort in the race, my question would be who bet this horse both in the DD and the win slot.

I just checked another 20 charts. There is not much action betting one track and you don't get a bet in every DD race. There was one DD bet that paid $45.

For those on the board who show profits with this spot play, I nod my head in wonder and ask why it has or does not work in
NY. Unless I'm doing something wrong.

How can something like this work year after year? Wouldn't most punters pick up on this, and there would go the payoffs.

Maybe Al Illich's Secret Play is not so secret anymore in NY.

[karlskorner]

Use to know a trainer (gone) who was the assit. to Stanley Hough when Hough was based at CRC and had a box in front of mine. Followed Hough to NY, came back every year with Hough until the early 90"s. All he ever wagered on was the Chinese Double. He claimed that he did very will with it at NY tracks, of course that was a decade ago. Are you sure you doing it the right way ? All you have to do is divide the M/L of the "2nd" race into the DD pay off.

[joeprunes]

No wonder it didnt work for me I divided the first race ML into the possible DD,So its dividing all the 2nd race horses ML into the possible DD Right?

[karlskorner]

Right

[sligg]

karlskorner,

Yes, I'm using Illich's method correctly. I just went through another batch of my tote charts and there was not one winner from the eligble DD selections. As I said in my earlier posts, if this method worked back in the early 90's I would still be using it.

For the time period I recorded the DD ratio, this method did not work. I seriously doubt that 70% figure that has been stated on the board. In fact, there is nothing the tote board will give you with a profit consistency that would not self-destruct because of the parimutual limitations.

Barry Meadows in one of his newsletters wrote that deciphering the tote board was an excercize in futility. Early money, late money, money ratios, DD ratios, you name it, I tried it. I firmly believe that horse racing is much to complex to think that dividing the second half of the early or late doubles payoffs by its related ML will give you enough winners to show a profit year after year.

It just won't happen. There are too many sharp horseplayers that would be aware of this spot play and if it was so it would impact the mutual payoffs and that would be the end of the spot play.

[smf]

Sligg,

It doesn't work down here, either.

I have tracked it at FG the past 3 days and no exactas or tri's w/h been hit in any of the past 3 days. The top rated/ bet down horse has finished off the board 2 of the 3 days and it hasn't won, either.

I did log all the will pays for GP Sunday while I was at LS, haven't looked at the results yet. Probably won't till tomorrow sometime.

Karl does get defensive, so I'll put the disclaimer up here that ***he's an excellent handicapper that has a lot to offer***. But betting key race horses in Texas and La won't buy you any trips on cruise ships on our races unless the ship has 'Titanic' emblazoned on it. Looks like it's the same deal for the Chinese Double. It doesn't work here.

Maiden races are worth tracking for key races here, but it's not an auto bet. Never has been. Perhaps in Fla it is.

[karlskorner]

Well here I go getting defensive again. I have never implied that it was "Al Illich's method", nor did I imply that it would work on exactas or trifectas, or that it would work in the "latedouble". All I said was by doing the math as explained that you would arrive at a low number to consider seriously, especially if the M/L was high. Win wagers only.

I started this 5 days ago with 2 races at CRC and 3 at GP, ( 2 "different " tracks). If you had wagered $2.00 on each race ($10.00) you would have a return of $38.60, $6.40 and $6.40 or a return of a little over $51.00. You spent $10.00 and made a "proifit" of $41.00, each poster seems to have a different method of arriving at a ROI, mine says 400% profit.

Maybe it's the S. Florida weather, I don't know, maybe you have to believe in something to make it work. From here on in your are on your own.

[Zaf]

I have a copy of the Ilich book, I never opened it. Are there any other useful angles in there.

ZAFONIC

[Larry Hamilton]

sligg, the other "secret play" is how to bet on 2-5 horse in every race and win (due column stuff) beginning on page 148.

by the way, the z-pattern that got so much discussion earlier is on page 85--he calls it "irregular race patterns"

[karlskorner]

It's time to read the book by Al Illich, take 2 evenings and you will discover where the authors of the 200 books that followed got most of their concepts. Add the word "Modern" to Huey Mahl's "The race is Pace" and you wind up with MPH. When Cambell Soup wants to unload the warehouse they stamp "NEW" or "IMPROVED" on the can.

[JustMissed]

Karl, Great post & thread. There is a question I hope you or someone else can answer for me.

Is there anyway to look at in the 1st race that that might indicate whether or not a Chinese Double in play.

In your example you showed a DD payoff of $122. If the betting trainer bet $300 for himself and $100 for his jockey, they would cash for $18,300 & $6,100. But, the trainer has to buy the tickets before the 1st post, just like you and me. Wouldn't he need some assurance that the right horse would run first in the 1st. I suppose he could play two or three chaulk horses over the fix horse and it would not cost him too bad-except a chaulk over a longshot would not pay as well and if a medium price horse could win Race 1, well like they say, we'd have a few angles going for us.

Anyway, there may not be anything to this but I was just thinking that if you came up with a long odds horse with a low number that you wanted to bet it in Race 2, it would be a nice angle if there was anything going on with Race 1 to help confirm your pick.

Let me know,

JustMissed


:)

[GameTheory]

I've been looking at some of these pools since this came up, and tried computing it by taking the average payoff on the 2nd race horse instead of just the payoffs from the actual winner of the 1st race. It seems to lead to more chaos, if anything...

[Show Me the Wire]

Application of this angle requires you to know the connections. This angle arguably shows hidden money bet by the connections. Yes, it does work at certain tracks with certain connections.

If you use this angle you are assuming the owner or trainer is a better handicapper than you. Additionally, owners and trainers have a propensity to view their animal through rose-colored glasses.

Therefore, if you succumb to the charm of hidden money try to be informed how well the connections have performed in the past with their handicapping. Owners that bet their horses no matter what and hope for lightening to strike further complicate this angle.

As for me, I would be far more willing to trust Catalano hidden money, than George King hidden money in the double pools. A far-fetched comparison I know, but it has happened.


I want to know when the connections are not wagering on their horse!!!!!

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

The more I experience the less I know.

[gillenr]

1- Are the DD probables available anywhere after the races?
2-How would this work using live 2nd race odds at 8 MTP? I distrust the ML makers.
Thanks

[JimG]

Karl,

I presume the book is called "How to Pick Winners"? I did a search on amazon and that is the only title I could come up with by the author.

I purchased it and am looking forward to reading it. Thanks for the tip.

Jim

PS..That clam chowder sounded good and made me wish I was back living in Florida and going to the ponies. I do miss FLA.

[sligg]

Illich's book was published in 1971, and 32 years later it is still being discussed. That's remarkable. I wonder if any of today's writers will be talked about 32 years from now. But then again, how many of us will still be around.

Just think for $5 (back then) we were given the Secret Play amongst many other plays listed in his book. He gives several isolated plays at different tracks and dates-but no workout. So there is no way of knowing if this play was profitable in 1971.

I have gone through at least 200 of my tote charts and emphatically I will say this DD play does not produce profits. But it does produce long runouts.

Ah, if racing were only that simple: just divide two numbers and bingo-instant riches!

Maybe the next big secret we will talk about is the infamous win/show or win/place ratio's or how about the flawed Ziemba theory for profits.

[CapperLou]

Sligg:

Like any other spot play method or today's computer software top picks and all the info contained therein--you have to know WHEN to fire.

Just like software will not show a profit on top pick in each race--neither will any of these.

Again, you have to have the experience and the instincts and know which trainers or trainer/jockey combos are LIVE when you find these plays.

There is nothing "mechanical" in this game that will make you a winner. If I recall, you have been following Pie Publishing for a few mths and apparently were looking for something mechanical with those picks. It's very difficult to do unless you are willing to settle for 5-6% ROI---and then you have to FIND it.

Hope this helps---also--remember the chinese double is NOT the same as the "secret play" of Al Illich. They are just very similar, but not exactly the same.

CapperLou

[smf]

Originally posted by CapperLou
Sligg:


Again, you have to have the experience and the instincts and know which trainers or trainer/jockey combos are LIVE when you find these plays.


CapperLou

CapperLou,

While I completely agree that getting to know how a barn/ owner bets is very important, the example that I gave from the FG on Saturday was a Tom Amoss/ TomBoy Stables horse (Cielo's Garden). That barn's live ones do get bet hard at FG, oftentimes to the point that you have to pass a winner from time to time to get a fair price.

If I was to believe this was inside money, then from this so-called angle, I should have landed on TMA's horse with both feet?

No sir.

Going back to the looks of the horse, etc, I'd have to say it's some very avid bettor(s) that thought TMA's horse would walk in the 2nd and they turned out to be wrong.

They shoulda listened to Miss Pam before betting (but I'll save that one for Reid<seg>).

[Zaf]

Originally posted by karlskorner
It's time to read the book by Al Illich, take 2 evenings and you will discover where the authors of the 200 books that followed got most of their concepts. Add the word "Modern" to Huey Mahl's "The race is Pace" and you wind up with MPH. When Cambell Soup wants to unload the warehouse they stamp "NEW" or "IMPROVED" on the can.

Just found it (took half the day), buried it years ago. Love reading handicapping books. Looking forward to it.

ZAFONIC

[karlskorner]

I thought I was through with this post, when the last sentance in my last post was "From here on in your on your own" My posts seem to attract attention, most of it controversial.

Just Missed

I don't think the 1st race has anything to do with it. It all seems to be in the M/L of the 2nd race and what # it produces. Owner , trainer, jockey or "wise guy", somebody caused that low #.

Game Theory

Forget the "average payoff" of the 2nd race, as the example I gave a couple of posts back, 5 races played, 3 won (2 at scratch) yet it produced a 400% profit. I will never konow the reasons why, but I do love the profit.

Show me the wire

Who else but the owner or trainer knows the horse better ? Some times it pays chalk (as I noted in the 3 wins) and sometimes you "catch lightning in a bottle"

Gillner

There is no where that I know of after the races are run that you can find the probable DD payoffs. Forget the 8 MTP odds in the 2nd race. The question that confronts you is as per my example, the M/L was 20/1, dropped to 18/1 at PT, yet the math produced a low of 6.

Jim G

Thats the book, I misplaced my copy 30 years ago when I moved to S. Florida. You know the Chowder is going to be good when the spoon stands straight up in the bowl. My Grandfather (bred horses, not thoroughbreds) had a bowl of soup everyday and lived to age 95. Now that's my superstition

Sligg

As I have said many times before, I am not a computer person, don't understand 1/2 what is being discussed on this board. If your tote charts and computer tells you it don't work, please don't use it. Like I said earlier sometimes you have to believe in what you are doing.

This post is getting tiresome and way too long. I am going to start a new one. New subject

[CapperLou]

smf:

What you say makes sense--that can happen--and especially in small DD pools.
One thing that is fairly important is that the DD pool is large enough. I would think that FG should be OK--it always has in the past==especially when most other tracks are dark.
I would also tell you that I will not play any horse in the 2nd race that is less than 5-1. The method can be streaky at times also and that is what keeps many players off of it.
Now; I cannot tell you about the "chinese double" because that is not what I play--Karl--who started this thread mentions that he expects a hit rate of 70% or so==which I find dramatic!!!
I will be "tracking" the chinese double also at several tracks over the next many mths--we'll see what happens!!!

All the Best,

CapperLou

P.S. It is amazing how many views this thread has attracted!!!

[JustMissed]

Thanks Karl for your straight forward answer and honesty. I always enjoy your post and insight.

For you other guys, I would like to tell again a story I heard many years ago:

A man was in hot air ballon race in North Georgia and got lost. As his balloon drifted over an Atlanta suburb he lowered his balloon to drift over the backyard of a man watering his yard. "Hey, he shouted, can you tell me where I am?. "Yes, the man on the ground shouted back, you are in a hot air balloon approximately 150 feet above the ground". As the ballonist quickly drifted by he shouted back "You must be a C.P.A.?" "Yes, the man on the ground replied, How did you know that?". The ballonist fading on the horizon shouted back "Because what you said is absolutely correct and perfectly worthless".

JustMissed
:p

[Show Me the Wire]

JustMissed:

I heard the man in the balloon was an economist. If anyone believes you can hit at 70% by betting the lowest significant number they probably should talk to the economist in the balloon.
This game is difficult for the trainers and owners as well, and well-meant horses lose everyday to the dhagrin of the wagering trainer and owner.

And yes there is a way to uncover the hidden money in the first part of the double, I am sure it is correct information and absolutely worthless, so I won’t bother to explain.

The reason I posted I had hoped to clarify that this angle should not be followed blindly, as some seem to think. My advice is free and like all free advice it is worth what you paid for it.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

The more I experience the less I know.

[sligg]

Show Me The Wire

I agree totally. Whether it's called Secret Play, Chinese Double, or by any other name, the Daily Double bet is a loser and 70% win frequency is incredulous.

I just checked over three hundred races and the DD bet doesn't even approach 10 %. To all my horse playing compatriots, don't waste your time on this: IT'S A LOSER!

In fact betting horses that are selected via the tote board in any manner is a losing proposition.

[karlskorner]

I am reading some negative thoughts, but more positive replies on the CD. To quote

"My computer, data base, quierys, stats, charts etc. says it can't be done, the laws of "whatever" and the rules of "whenever" say it isn't possible, but than again I never really tried it".

To ye of little faith, I am sorry I brought it up, to you who have used it, what more can I say

[Zaf]

Originally posted by karlskorner
I am reading some negative thoughts, but more positive replies on the CD. To quote

"My computer, data base, quierys, stats, charts etc. says it can't be done, the laws of "whatever" and the rules of "whenever" say it isn't possible, but than again I never really tried it".

To ye of little faith, I am sorry I brought it up, to you who have used it, what more can I say

Hey Karl,

I enjoyed the thread ! If it works for you thats all that matters.
I'm glad you reminded me about the Ilich book. I've had it for years, I never opened it. I am always looking for new stuff to read. I'm sure I'll enjoy it & maybe pick up a nugget of knowledge or two from it.

ZAFONIC

[sligg]

CapperLou,

As an aside to the current subject, I will be posting the Pie Publishing results in a day or two. You mention 5-6% ROI: Using the Diamond Picks from Pie, I have isolated some subsets that have produced ROI's of 39-80% and in one subset 106%.

Naturally the number of plays are greatly reduced.

I hope my report will create as much dialogue as the Chinese Double.

[karlskorner]

Does the 300 DD races you checked in your data base, have the M/L for the 2nd race, the amount of possible payoffs for each horse in the 2nd race and the actual number arrived at by dividing the 2nd race M/L into the payoffs ? If so you have to be one "busy" typist to pump all that info.

Hey, I wish and pray that everyone takes your advice, God knows I don't need the competition.

[Show Me the Wire]

Karl:

I may have missed something. Have you been playing the Chinese Double only for about 5 days? If so I can understand your hit rate 7 out of ten and why you believe in it.

From my experience and I mean at least ten years of being aware of this method and I check the double pools everyday to see what horses are bet front and back of the double I have not experienced a 70% hit rate over the long-term. Actually, experience shows it as a losing proposition if you are not selective and know the connections.

I am not trying to be negative, but I am trying to share my experiences to benefit others.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

The more I experience the less I know.

[sligg]

KarlsKorner,

I'll explain my charts again. These were charts I recorded by hand, flash by flash from the opening line to the closing line back in the early 90's. I also recorded the ML and DD payoffs for the 2nd and 9th races at the NY circuit. So it is easy to go through the charts looking for the Secret Play or the Chinese Double.

At that time I was a firm believer that the answer was to be found on the tote board. I spent several years charting the tote board but to no avail. I bought everything ever written about the tote board but it was all a fairy tale. I tried all the known tote patterns: early, late, middle, obvious money, subtle money, all kinds of money ratio's, Ziemba-it was all a con. There was nothing to be found on the tote.

In one of my previous posts I told about getting the computer printouts from the NYRA under the Freedom Of Information Act. I spent at least 6 months studying these printouts with a group of horseplayers. We found nothing that worked consistently. Zilch; Nada. It was the most frustrating experience I've had in horse racing. And now we are trying to reinvent the tote wheel again.

I have not posted any figures for my DD research because they are all negative and it is very tedious and boring charting a losing bet. What does it prove? You can't overcome negative expectancy.

I can't understand how the DD bet can be successful at any track other than NY. Trainers are trainers and their goal is universal: To hide any and all manuvers from the public.

[karlskorner]

No it's not only the last 5 days, more like 20 years. It was sort of getting boring on the Board, same old same old, what new program is coming next, "adjusted" Beyer numbers, my program is better than yours, etc. etc. It just so happens that 6 days ago the CD hit a $38.00 horse and amongst other things I do (key race horses and other suggestions I have made), I thought I would bring it up. I am begining to believe that 95% of the people who read the thread don't understand it, on top of this came the statistic's people who consulted thier data bases, stats and records and advised everyone that it not a possibility.

As I told Sligg, I hope they take his advice, as I really don't need the competition.

God only knows how I hate the "dark days" at the track when I get involved on this board and have to defend things I have been using for years. Tomorrow is another "dark day" at GP, think I will spend it in the pool.

[rockitsirgin]

Karl

Thanks for sharing the Chinese Double, aka Secret Play. I took it for a short test drive today at Turf Paradise. Race 2 (1-06-02)

...M/L..DDPayout.PropOdds (proportional odds)
1..8:1...$131........16....(131 divided by 8)
2..5:2....$59........24....(59 divided by 2.5)
3..8:1...$279........35....(279 divided by 8)
4..7:2....$76........22....(76 divided by 3.5)
5.10:1...$371........37....(371 divided by 10)
6.12:1...$258........22....(258 divided by 12)
7..4:1...$233........58....(233 divided by 4)
8..9:2...$108........24....(108 divided by 4.5)

#1 won and paid $14.20
The 1-4 exacta ($2) paid $56.60
The 1-4 quinella ($2) paid $26.20
#3 finished 3rd
#6 was 4th

I found an explanation of the Secret Play at:
http://acapps.com/id27.htm

Unfortunately, I still don't know the difference between the Secret Play and the Chinese Double.

Garrett

[karlskorner]

Thank You. Thank You. Thank You.

I hope all the "Doubting Thomas and Computer Guru's" go to the site, read it, print it and try to understand it.

Karl

[hurrikane]

Karl,
I'm not saying right or wrong. Not enough info. I understand the bet. Just because this guy puts up a web page and you say it is so isn't enough for me to start pumping in my bankroll.
I'll track it for a while and give my thoughts after a few hundred races.

Thanks for the insight though. Don't stop sharing the ideas, I, for one, am always intrigued by your posts.

[GR1@HTR]

I bet $40 to win only...
I don't read books...
I make my own decisions...
I have to be at the track to make selecitons and can't pick a horse before the race is run...
I follow the other peoples decions and money in exotics to place my wagers...
I made $XXX on $XXX bet at the races today...
My name is KarlsKorner...

Keep em coming...good stuff...

[karlskorner]

I think what put the burr under the doubters saddle was the 7 out of 10 statement, so I went back and re-read my original post, no where did I imply you play "every early double" nor did I imply you play every CD you find. I think this was ASSUMED by all. Practice gets you to Canegie Hall. Everybody went to their Computers and claimed it "can't be done". When the CD raises it's head, you go to the PP's and ask WHY. When you find the answer, then "everyone". else has the answer. It's when you can"t answer the question WHY, that you get serious. Numerous posters keep mentioning the Tote Board, you will loose if you follow the Tote Board etc. etc. The CD has nothing , repeat nothing to do with the Tote Board. On the way to the paddock, I stop at the nearest TV monitor and copy the probable DD payoffs, that''s all I am interested in. Forget the Tote Board. You now have 25 minutes to put the 4 corners on the puzzle.

[karlskorner]

I just realized why you are up so early, it' Wednesday, time to dig a new hole and move the OUTHOUSE

[JustMissed]

Originally posted by rockitsirgin
Karl

Thanks for sharing the Chinese Double, aka Secret Play. I took it for a short test drive today at Turf Paradise. Race 2 (1-06-02)

...M/L..DDPayout.PropOdds (proportional odds)
1..8:1...$131........16....(131 divided by 8)
2..5:2....$59........24....(59 divided by 2.5)
3..8:1...$279........35....(279 divided by 8)
4..7:2....$76........22....(76 divided by 3.5)
5.10:1...$371........37....(371 divided by 10)
6.12:1...$258........22....(258 divided by 12)
7..4:1...$233........58....(233 divided by 4)
8..9:2...$108........24....(108 divided by 4.5)

#1 won and paid $14.20
The 1-4 exacta ($2) paid $56.60
The 1-4 quinella ($2) paid $26.20
#3 finished 3rd
#6 was 4th

I found an explanation of the Secret Play at:
http://acapps.com/id27.htm

Unfortunately, I still don't know the difference between the Secret Play and the Chinese Double.

Garrett

GARRETT:
Thank you very much for your post and reference. This is the way I like to see the board work.

In an earlier post I asked if anyone knew if there was anything about the first race that would confirm or reinforce that a CD/Secret Play was on. At the acapp.com site, the author tipped his hand by saying the following: "I got so good at it that I can tell there is a Play going in the First race just by reverse reasoning." I had suspected that the tip off was connection oriented but I see now that it is based on the results and betting action of the 1st race.

Again, thanks for taking the time to post.

JustMissed
:)

[sligg]

Is there anywhere on the internet where the DD payoffs are posted? I tried two of the live betting sites but I did not find them.

Other than the host track are the DD payoffs posted for the simulcast tracks at Aquduct?

[GameTheory]

Racing Channel tote board:

http://www.racingchannel.com

They are only posted for the first leg -- you've got to copy the page or write them down before the second leg odds go up.

[JimG]

Probable daily double payoffs are available on both YouBet and Ebetusa if you play through them.

Jim

[GR1@HTR]

Chinese DD players..., you guys playing the chinese exacta/quinella looking for overbet pools?

[ranchwest]

I'm playing the Formosa double on the Australian pool in Canadian dollars with a British jockey and a Chilean horse with a Venezuelan jockey and a trainer from Burbank. It's a sure thing.

[joeprunes]

Thanks Karlscorner ,I`m having fun with your CD double.I dry ran it and it worked. yesterday at the big A I tried it for real, the 1 horse came up real big gave it to my guys at our table at OTB the horse payed 7 change and we all keyed him in the pick 3 9($133 )pretty good ya think.....thanks joeprunes
Bye the way won going away by 7

[sligg]

joeprunes,

#1 came up real big? Why do you say that?

I was at Aquduct and these are my figures:

#1: ML 8, OL 7, CL 5/2 co-favorite with #3
Pro odds: 11

#10: ML 20, OL 5, CL 8
Pro odds: 11

Pro odds on #3 and #4 was 13

So who do you bet? Both had betting action. Do you bet both?
#1 paid $7.30

I would say pass on this race; there was no edge with pro odds of 11, 11, 13, 13.

[sligg]

Phonebet (Philadelphia Park) has the best setup to check for the Chinese Double or the Secret Play. If you are doing research on these spot plays you can do this all at the end of the day. If someone wants to do the work, there is now a way of doing it without betting. It's all in the day's archives.

[karlskorner]

To those that are interested the CD did the following at GP

12/31....$38.00
1/1............3.80
1/3----------6.40
1/5.............6.40
1/9............7.80
1/10.......... 9.20
1/11..........7.00

That's 10 days of racing and 7 winning days, or "7 out of 10" as I originally posted, some of my critics said "ouragesous" never happen, somebody called it "incredulos"

Am I "REDBOARDING" ? Hardly. I posted the procedure on 12/31 for all to do and follow, and a couple of times thereafter, if you did, you received the above. If it doesn't work "elsewhere" that's not really my problem. Aside from that I had 3 "key race horses" today, 2 of them won, 3rd race $14.80, 8th race $12.80, Another procedure I submitted and was scoffed at. Yes, I came home early.

[GameTheory]

I've been semi-tracking this, not sure what to think.

But I do know there weren't any $6.40 winners on 1/3 at GP, nor did the CD indicate a winner that day among the three lowest horses (the lowest CD horse in the second race was the favorite and placed). Check your records on that.

I only have records for a few of the other days...

[karlskorner]

My error, should have read 1/2 for the $6.40 horse, bad typist.
Been on a "high" since I got home, nice day at GP, glad somebody is following it.

[karlskorner]

Before somebody thinks they have caught another error, the "key race horse" I caught in the 8th race, comes out of a race 9/27 8th race out of Meadowlands. As everyone knows, I only track local horses at CRC and GP. So happens one of our board members from the NY area started keeping "key race" horses for all nearby tracks about a year ago, when I first mentioned it.

I E-mailed him this morning with the 2 "key race" horses I had for GP and he E-mailed back the winner of the 8th at GP as a possible "key race" horse. My winner paid $14.80 his $12.80.

[Zaf]

Karl,

I like your two methods. Even though I do not use them, I am happy to see that there are still some profitable angles out there that don't require sophisticated handicapping program.

One up for the Paper & Pencil guys !!!!

ZAFONIC

[smf]

Karl,

It was yesterday that the Chinese Double (winner) didn't meet the criteria that matched the article (that you asked us all to print and review). The winner didn't have a 3 point advantage as is outlined.

What up?

[smf]

Originally posted by smf
Karl,

It was yesterday that the Chinese Double (winner) didn't meet the criteria that matched the article (that you asked us all to print and review). The winner didn't have a 3 point advantage as is outlined.

What up?

Pardon me, it was Thursday. I still have the #'s here (written the back of my thurs pp's I saved). Didn't bother looking at the CD yesterday or today, but the day I did, I saved the #'s.

So what am I missing? I'll post up the dd #'s from thurs if you like.

[karlskorner]

They must call you "Mr. Tancious" at Lone Star, because you "never give up". Al Illich's book calls for a 5 point spread. Mr. Steve Metzer who wrote the article that someone else posted and I suggested everyone read calls for a 3 point spread, BUT, no where in Karlskorner's posts does he mention a spread of "any sort". Now what part of what I just said don't you understand, beside's you already posted in "Texas", it doesn't work, now "that" I can understand. Don't bother looking up anything , for I truely believe you don't understand the procedure or how to do the math. Did I mention I came home "early" today

[Zaf]

Boy Karl what have you done to deserve this scrutiny ???

ZAFONIC

[smf]

Awww Karl, you do get defensive when someone sticks to the subject.

Point 1...roceitsirgin posted that link and you stated to him regarding that link...(quote below)..
------------------------------
"Garrett
Thank You. Thank You. Thank You.

I hope all the "Doubting Thomas and Computer Guru's" go to the site, read it, print it and try to understand it.

Karl"
------------------------------------

OK, I read it, I understand it and it had that particular guideline included in the article, which all of a sudden you say you have no need to follow (even tho we should all "read it, print it and try to understand it").

Redboard, indeed.

Point #2.

Here's what the site mentioned>>>"DO NOT Play the race unless the lowest odds showing is at least (3) points lower than the next closest odds. "

Again, following the article YOU mentioned for us to heed, the horse that won had CD # of 2, the show horse had a CD # of 3. That's a no play in the article you wanted us to read. print, etc....


Btw Karlredboard, I bet they don't call you "Mr Webster" at the track. See below.

TYPE IN YOUR WORD & CLICK GO!
Dictionary



Sorry, no words matching "tanciuos" were found


Have a nice day and, again, have fun in that voting booth next year!! So Fla elderly residents are known for redboarding at the voting booths as well <G>.

Ta ta.

P.s....instead of engaging in a pissing match, why not spell out everything in that article you DO NOT follow. That way we will know if you really cashed or not.

[smf]

Originally posted by karlskorner
Did I mention I came home "early" today

Yeah, but the light on your front porch ain't on sometimes.

[karlskorner]

It all started about a year ago during the GP meet, he and his friend Wyatt Earp questioned why I had come on the board, while the last few races were running ( you can probably go to the archives and look it up, if you really care ). I told them it was a "habit" of mine to leave if I "doubled" my walking in money and go home. His reply was "ho hum" another good day at the track. Our relationship has been a sleigh ride down hill ever since,.

[JimG]

Karl...

In dabbling with Gulfstream the first couple of weeks of the meet it seems to me that some unlikely horses are doing well and paying good prices. Do you take it easier at the beginning of a meet like this? or just play normally? If I may ask, how have you been doing at GP so far and how do you handle what I call the "Bailey factor"...low odds but wins alot?

Thanks in advance for any answer.

Jim

[karlskorner]

The Bailey factor.

The 8th yesterday at GP. Even though this was a "key race" horse for me, for those that didnt't know this, how the public allowed the horse to go off at 5/1 with the following information. Stud fee $30K, 5 times more than any other horse entered, you have to respect that kind of money and the person who paid it to give his Mare 7 seconds of happiness, ever been in a "Breeding Barn", even I can last longer than 7 seconds, out of Capote (Seattle Slew), William Mott Trainer, Jerry Bailey jockey, dynamite duo, horse ran last 9/27th at Meadowlands, has had 5 workouts at Palmmeadow since 12/2 and 3 of them were bullets.Paid $12.80.

How am I doing at GP ? Won't answer that, as it will only cause more controversy, lets's just say I am shutting down now, taking a shower and will be at GP 11:30 when the gates open.

[joeprunes]

Heres a guy trying to give you some info on how to make money and you break his b----. If you dont like the CD let it rest..jp

[Zaf]

Originally posted by joeprunes
Heres a guy trying to give you some info on how to make money and you break his b----. If you dont like the CD let it rest..jp

I couldn't agree with you more Joe. Karl sent me his Key Race method a while ago. He's just trying to help others out with things that he has been sucessful with. Most players don't share their sucessful methods with others.

ZAFONIC

[sligg]

karlskorner,

Illich's Secret Play calls for a four point differential, not five. The article you linked says three. So which should it be?

The Chinese Double from what I read does not place this restriction-just cross off the two morning line favorites and then select two lowest of the proportional odds.

I found a way to check these two angles using the online tote board at phonebet.com. I will keep you posted as to the results using four or five tracks. I'm excluding the California tracks because they use the rolling doubles.

Thus far, with the Chinese Double, I sense that you have to contend with long runouts even though betting two horses per race. Secret Play is restrictive so there will be less plays. In two days there were five qualified plays and all lost.

We shall see.

[karlskorner]

I have 2 Private Messages that the CD at AQU yesterday paid $14..80 " NO POINTS". In my post that started all this BS "never" mentioned POINTS. Al Illich mentioned 5 points, not me, the article I posted (and regret) mentioned 3 points, ""not me"". Maybe that why it's known as "The Chinese Double".

Where in the world are you getting "scratch the 2 favorites", not from me. Yesterday at GP the lowest # was scratched in the paddock by the VET (he either step on a "safety pin" on the way over or threw up, you would think his "connections" in the barn would know the animal was unfit to race") Since he was the favorite would have only paid $6 and change, I am not too proud to take that. If you get a "scratch" like that don't go looking for a replacement

$14.80 at AQU, the the 2nd winner in 3 days at AQU reported by New York players, 'They" wrote that it wouldn't work elsewhere. The only place it apprently doesn"t work is TEXAS

[JustMissed]

Tampa Bay Downs, Saturday, 1/11/2003, Race 2.
#1, Miller Tyme, MLO 20-1, Daily Double expected payoff $213.60, Chinese Double odds 11, lowest of the field, strong confirmation from first race.

Miller Tyme won going away and paid $36.40. I was there and I had a small wager to win on Miller Tyme.

I may include Karl's Chinese Double play in my up coming book entitled: THE PA BOARD: HOW TO TURN GOLDEN NUGGETS INTO GOLD MINES.

Thanks Karl,

JustMissed
:)

[JustMissed]

I failed to mention the the Daily Double secret play is in Mr. Ainslie's Complete Guide on page 310, under the heading, Principle 56 in the Tote Board section. Of course this book was copyrighted 1968, 1979 & 1986.

Maybe the "boys" would like to flame on Mr. Ainslie for a while and give you some rest.

See ya,

JustMissed
:mad:

[GR1@HTR]

If you all say it's working for you guys, then good for you...Remember the last time you saw something good happen from a so called good angle and thought you found the key to the mint...only later to find out you lost the next 5 to 10 bets and tossed it...Well, I can only hope that your next bets on this angle help contribute to your early retirement program...Retirement from playing the horses that is...


To put money on this is simply gambling/assuming on a few factors...
1) That the owner/trainer actually put $$ on the horse. Anybody with a couple $100 bill’s can alter the payouts of a DD by a straight bet.
2) You then assume that anybody who bets with a lot of money are winning players.
3) You then are wagering on that person being right.
4) And you are assuming the owner knows who is going to win the 2nd leg of the race. You all realize that if both horses have a 50% chance to win (1-1 odds), your odds of cashing a ticket is 25% (.50 X .50).

The truth is that horses that are heavily bet do win more often….But they also lose money across the board. If you feel comfortable betting the Chinese double then you should also under the same premise bet on combos in the exacta that are heavily bet and also heavily bet favorites…Now you tell me where that is going to put you long term financially?

IMHO, if you are looking at tote board systems that follow money to make money then you are either a
1) A beginner in this sport and don’t quite understand how a pari-mutuel system works
2) Have given up on handicapping and are now seeking out other methods.
3) A gambler…

[karlskorner]

Just went back over the 7 pages of this post, there are quite a few 'THANK YOU'S" in one form or the other. HOW MANY DID YOU GET ?

[GR1@HTR]

Originally posted by karlskorner
Just went back over the 7 pages of this post, there are quite a few 'THANK YOU'S" in one form or the other. HOW MANY DID YOU GET ?

The thanks yous are from nice folks who realize you have a bruised ego and you appreciate the pats on the back. Next time someone sees Karl at the track, give him a hug...

[keilan]

PA -- and you asked me and others to give it up. I'm feeling were not finished with this thread yet. Keep taunting Karl

gotta run for now!

[ranchwest]

There is absolutely no doubt the Chinese Double will put you onto winners. No doubt, none.

ANYBODY CAN PICK WINNERS. ANYBODY.

Show me how to avoid losers. I don't think this system does so. It is based entirely, 100%, on other people's analyses and wagering. Right or wrong, I'll stick with my own picks.

[Show Me the Wire]

Karl do these words seem familiar?

A quote from William Quirin's 2nd book

Winning is fun. But "Being Right" is far more
satisfying to the Ego

I witnessed karlskorner evolve from someone asking questions in 2001 to Handicapping genius this year. Initially, Karl’s affirmative posts were related to the drug usage and how drugs were ruining horse racing, etc.

His perspective has evolved to being a fountain of knowledge spewing forth and cleansing the unwashed masses. If someone asks a question or voices an opinion contrary to Karl’s truth it is because they are jealous of Karl, they are attacking Karl, they are stalking karl, (reminds me of ITM accusing PA of the same).

I too posted specific comments to Karl’s posts in the past and experienced the same type of responses demonstrated by Karl as in the Chinese Double posts. Interestingly, I supported Karl’s idea, with the caveat of understand why this hidden money happens and base your decisions on the connections’ past performances with this type of betting issue.

I was taken to task by karl because the connections know their horse better than anyone else. Of course they do, but that does not mean they manage their horse correctly. Every race has well meant horses and well meant horses lose to other well-meant horses.

Additionally, it is getting futile to use the ignore button with Fasssssst, Ray, and Karl, because the thread is indecipherable. Additionally, I am disappointed PA does not perceive how Karl attacks everyone with a different opinion than Karl through karl’s use of they are picking on me, while he slings mud at trainers and authors with reckless abandon.

Just my opinion as I walk out the door.

Regards,
Anthony

It sure is a blustery day

[PaceAdvantage]

You all say the Chinese Double can't work, but you offer no proof. In my mind, those who say the CD can't work, are just as bad as supporters of the Chinese Double who say it DOES work based on a couple of plays or observations.

How about somebody doing a significant test of the system and reporting back?? I think someone did this, didn't they? I have little interest in this system, which is why I haven't been paying much attention....

And to all those who feel the need to jump ship over Karl, let me ask you a question:

What would you like ME to do about it?


There has been some major changes to this board's composition lately, and believe me, this has NOT GONE UNNOTICED on this end.

What appear to be MINOR issues that in the past would have been swept under the rug, are suddenly blown WAY out of proportion in my opinion. It's interesting how various events have come together at just the right time to create all sorts of distractions, distortions, and flames.

To those trying to shake the tree, I will simply state that we've seen it all before, and in the end, we'll be right here, whether we have 5 or 500 members......

==PA


PS. I originally closed this thread, but will keep it open a little longer to field responses to this posting.

[sligg]

karlskorner and PA

Keep the thread open.

I am doing a test on the CD and SP.

Karl, can you tell me if there are any rules on the CD I should be aware of? For the secret play, I will follow Illich's rules from his book.

[sligg]

karlskorner,

You have mentioned "key races" a number of times in your many posts. Can you tell me where I can find more information on this?

[karlskorner]

Please, forget Illich just becasue it was written in a book, forget the other post, which I regret posting, I was only trying to show that others were doing it with their set of rule. Go back to the 1st post, there are no rules, all you are doing is dividing the M/L of the 2nd race into the DD payoff. M/L 7, divided into payoff of DD $42.00, answer 6 From what I am reading here, private messages and E-mails received, a lot of posters are using it successfully. If you are going to run it through your data base, at least use both methods.

Key races. I just finished writing my 8th request for this method from a poster this morning, took me an hour. If some one can tell me how to make this private mail an "attachement" and send it on to you, or if one of the posters who have and could forward my instructions I sent them, I would appreciate it.

I really am getting weary

[anotherdave]

Karl.

Why don't you have the people interested give their actual email addresses rather than going through the board mail system. Should be easier to attach that way and then you just send it to the whole group.(If it works, I'd love a copy too, but I won't ask for it otherwise!)

AD

[karlskorner]

I think I did it. Went to the bottom of the page where it says forward, hit that, put Sliggs name in the little boxy, checked the box on the right where it says sent to and there was Sliggs name. Check your private mail Sligg yours too Anotherdave

[Lindsay]

Karlskorner actually wrote this:

"SMF, LINDSAY & KILEN
Just went back over the 7 pages of this post, there are quite a few 'THANK YOU'S" in one form or the other. HOW MANY DID YOU GET ?"

Never take investment advice from someone who is reduced to counting--and bragging about--his thank yous.

[Richard]

Here Here,PA.

[karlskorner]

Thank you and numerous others who have put kind words and thoughts into my Private Mail box..I have sent to your PM boxes and others, the information you requested. My Momma taught me to thank people for an unexpected compliment

[karlskorner]

The statement

"Never take investment advice from soneone who is working"

was made by Bernard Baruch (the famous and very rich park bench investor) who was talking about "Stock Brokers" if you want to interpet this to include your fellow handicappers, it's your choice, it you consider it a personal insult, so be it.

[RERACING]

KARLSKORNER COULD YOU SEND ME A PRIVATE EMAIL ATTACHEMENT

[karlskorner]

It's in your PM box. Thank you for asking.

[karlskorner]

It's in your PM box. Thank you for asking

[PaceAdvantage]

There has just been too much controversy, and too much fallout from this thread to be believed. It's time to close this thread.

Is there a "smile" I can use to express TOTAL EXASPERATION???


Maybe this comes close enough:

:( :confused: :rolleyes: :eek: