My Case Against Horizontal Betting

[Pell Mell]

In the last 6 weeks I have tried a lot of P-3,4,6 betting and have had an eye opener. I have bet a little over 16 grand with a return of a little more than 17 Gs for a grand total of a grand profit. What a waste of time and boy do I miss Pinnacle.The rebate would have been more than my profit, but I might add, I am very good at churning.

Here's my problem with horizontal betting: One day I had a key horse at Rd or TDN, I don't remember which, and I played this horse as a key in the P3 on both sides of his race. My key horse won at 20/1 and I caught both P-3s which paid like $900. and $800. on a $60. investment. Sounds good but it wasn't because I picked up more than double that on a 20 buck investment in the tri and super. I figure that using my same key horses in vertical bets and considering the amount of money I bet I would have made over 20 Gs. in the same time period. I think I'm a pretty good player but in the P3s and especially the 4s and 6s there are just too many unbettable races and if you hit the all button very often you can get into some serious bucks. So, IMHO, horizontal betting is a fools errand! Take that $60. and find a race where you like a couple of long ones and go up and down not sideways.;)

[HorseRun]

if you can get a good rebate then horizontal is the way to go, especially if you are as good at churning as you say you are...this is why rebates are so vital, no matter how much Tracknet would like to make them disappear

[Greyfox]

A hard case to make. You made a profitable r.o.i.
Can you do better at the bank?
Any way you carve it , it's easier to pick Winners than who might run third in a vertical bet.
I have no sympathy at all for you. On the surface, you are not picking your spots when there might be a vulnerable favorite or two in the horizonal bets.
My most often plays are horizontals. Sorry.

[Greyfox]

Besides, the "track's take" is only once!

[ddog]

In the last 6 weeks I have tried a lot of P-3,4,6 betting and have had an eye opener. I have bet a little over 16 grand with a return of a little more than 17 Gs for a grand total of a grand profit. What a waste of time and boy do I miss Pinnacle.The rebate would have been more than my profit, but I might add, I am very good at churning.

Here's my problem with horizontal betting: One day I had a key horse at Rd or TDN, I don't remember which, and I played this horse as a key in the P3 on both sides of his race. My key horse won at 20/1 and I caught both P-3s which paid like $900. and $800. on a $60. investment. Sounds good but it wasn't because I picked up more than double that on a 20 buck investment in the tri and super. I figure that using my same key horses in vertical bets and considering the amount of money I bet I would have made over 20 Gs. in the same time period. I think I'm a pretty good player but in the P3s and especially the 4s and 6s there are just too many unbettable races and if you hit the all button very often you can get into some serious bucks. So, IMHO, horizontal betting is a fools errand! Take that $60. and find a race where you like a couple of long ones and go up and down not sideways.;)


Maybe not a fools errand, if you are more comfortable playing that way then that's the way to play for you.
I have seen it done both ways.

For myself , i only play vertical.

Once you have an automated way to screen for the races you may want to play then you only need to have one good opinion a week and your done.

If you have several a day,thanks PID, so much the better.

I found I needed to work too hard to know too many details on all the groups of horses/barns,etc. on the circuit I was playing and spent too much time watching replays of all the races in order to wade through the horizontal sequences.

If you have to work that hard then there are easier ways to make a buck.
Not more enjoyable, but easier.

Plus, I really like to see the animals on the track before I play them.
May help , may hurt, I think it helps from my records though.

Also, the more people that say it's the way they play or THE way to play then the more certain you can be that you DON'T want to do it that way. :)

One more thing and for me it's the most important and that's when you "find" 1 or 2 of the horses that make the whole thing worth doing you don't want to miss them at all costs and leveraging that horse is easier in a single race than spreading across 2-3 other races as well.


Also, it's not harder to find a horse that can only run 2 or 3 than it is to find all the ones that can win, I think it's just a canard, most people don't try to do it.

Oh by the way, I have sympathy for all horse players. ;)


JMO

[JPinMaryland]

Any way you carve it , it's easier to pick Winners than who might run third in a vertical bet...


Can you explain how that works logically? I dont get it.

[SignUpKing]

A hard case to make. You made a profitable r.o.i.
Can you do better at the bank?
Any way you carve it , it's easier to pick Winners than who might run third in a vertical bet.
I have no sympathy at all for you. On the surface, you are not picking your spots when there might be a vulnerable favorite or two in the horizonal bets.
My most often plays are horizontals. Sorry.

I do not think the gentleman was trying to solicit your attitude, was he?

[Greyfox]

Can you explain how that works logically? I dont get it.

Picking Winners for horizontal bets is easier than trying to pick third place horses for trifectas (vertical bets).

[nobeyerspls]

In the last 6 weeks I have tried a lot of P-3,4,6 betting and have had an eye opener. I have bet a little over 16 grand with a return of a little more than 17 Gs for a grand total of a grand profit. What a waste of time and boy do I miss Pinnacle.The rebate would have been more than my profit, but I might add, I am very good at churning.

Here's my problem with horizontal betting: One day I had a key horse at Rd or TDN, I don't remember which, and I played this horse as a key in the P3 on both sides of his race. My key horse won at 20/1 and I caught both P-3s which paid like $900. and $800. on a $60. investment. Sounds good but it wasn't because I picked up more than double that on a 20 buck investment in the tri and super. I figure that using my same key horses in vertical bets and considering the amount of money I bet I would have made over 20 Gs. in the same time period. I think I'm a pretty good player but in the P3s and especially the 4s and 6s there are just too many unbettable races and if you hit the all button very often you can get into some serious bucks. So, IMHO, horizontal betting is a fools errand! Take that $60. and find a race where you like a couple of long ones and go up and down not sideways.;)

Looks like you were betting over $2,500 a week on these. Either a lot of bets or big tickets with multiple horses. It would take me three months to get to that amount.
There are some races where the horizontals make more sense than the verticals. I had an 18-1 live one in the last race a little while ago but didn't like the rest of the field. She won easily and the favorite and second choice came in behind. The race prior was a stakes race, easily reduced to two runners and the one before that was a field of eight with four contenders and four others. So, 4x2x1 yielded a $375 pick3 for a dollar and the repeat button magnified it.
You can bet both ways and be happy if you win either one. My only knock on the horizontals is race sequence. I hate it when they place a 2yo maiden race with a lot of firsters anywhere near a race where I have a live longshot.

[Pell Mell]

Looks like you were betting over $2,500 a week on these. Either a lot of bets or big tickets with multiple horses. It would take me three months to get to that amount.
There are some races where the horizontals make more sense than the verticals. I had an 18-1 live one in the last race a little while ago but didn't like the rest of the field. She won easily and the favorite and second choice came in behind. The race prior was a stakes race, easily reduced to two runners and the one before that was a field of eight with four contenders and four others. So, 4x2x1 yielded a $375 pick3 for a dollar and the repeat button magnified it.
You can bet both ways and be happy if you win either one. My only knock on the horizontals is race sequence. I hate it when they place a 2yo maiden race with a lot of firsters anywhere near a race where I have a live longshot.


# of BetsWin %$1 ROIWageredPayoffProfit/Loss32144.73%+0.07$15166.00$16242.20$+1076.20


This is my Bris record for the past 5 weeks. As you can see I made a lot of bets. I was playing all the horizontals at LAD and a couple other tracks. What i didn't mention was the amout of time consumed. I was at the computer at least 10 hrs. a day. Another problem when playing multiple tracks is that a lot of races are going off at the sme time and it's hard, at least for me, to keep track of what's going on.

[parlay]

I tried horizontal betting again recently bafter swearing off
it years ago. I hit 2 pik3 using a longshot key in 1 leg.
Both came back less than the parlay!
One was at AP the other at NYRA. I would have been far
better off making a large win wager and dabbleing in horizontal bets

[jma]

In the last 6 weeks I have tried a lot of P-3,4,6 betting and have had an eye opener. I have bet a little over 16 grand with a return of a little more than 17 Gs for a grand total of a grand profit. What a waste of time and boy do I miss Pinnacle.The rebate would have been more than my profit, but I might add, I am very good at churning.

Here's my problem with horizontal betting: One day I had a key horse at Rd or TDN, I don't remember which, and I played this horse as a key in the P3 on both sides of his race. My key horse won at 20/1 and I caught both P-3s which paid like $900. and $800. on a $60. investment. Sounds good but it wasn't because I picked up more than double that on a 20 buck investment in the tri and super. I figure that using my same key horses in vertical bets and considering the amount of money I bet I would have made over 20 Gs. in the same time period. I think I'm a pretty good player but in the P3s and especially the 4s and 6s there are just too many unbettable races and if you hit the all button very often you can get into some serious bucks. So, IMHO, horizontal betting is a fools errand! Take that $60. and find a race where you like a couple of long ones and go up and down not sideways.;)

I guess I'm not following the logic here. There was one race where the trifecta and superfecta paid more than the Pick 3, so therefore all horizontal betting is bad? I could just as easily point out the $1000 Pick 3s where one race had an $80 trifecta. Would that make all trifectas bad? I don't get it. It's too race and situation specific to generalize this way.

[classhandicapper]

I maintain that the only time you should get involved in any exotic bet is if doing so ADDS VALUE to your opinion (an exception being a carryover day in the pick 6). Typically, that means you have to have more than one value oriented opinion on either the same race (exacta, trifect, super) or on one in a sequence (double, pick 3,4,6).

Many people that play a lot of exotics do so because they are trying to make a big score, but all they are really doing is bucking a higher take.

[DanG]

I think I'm a pretty good player but in the P3s and especially the 4s and 6s there are just too many unbettable races and if you hit the all button very often you can get into some serious bucks. So, IMHO, horizontal betting is a fools errand! Take that $60. and find a race where you like a couple of long ones and go up and down not sideways.;)
95%+ of my play is pick-3, 4 & 6.

Not always, but several excellent players that I have met are not terribly good at both. Very good chance I would be in line at a soup kitchen if I could only bet tri’s and supers. It’s just not the way my brain is wired.

My total mindset is finding explosive animals. If I do any one thing better than another is uncovering the ‘boom or bust types that need the perfect storm to get home, but drive payoffs up significantly when they do.

Pell Mell; without knowing how you structured your wagers, it sounds like your bets don't completely reflect your opinion. If your “key” is 20-1 and your putting $60 into a pick-3, I’m assuming you wheeled front and back to collect once. This is a very inefficient strategy and didn’t reflect your opinion in the surrounding races.

Steve Crist’s book “Exotic Betting” hoes into much greater detail than my typing skills will allow, but with your skills at handicapping it sounds like horizontal betting is right up your alley.

[Pell Mell]

95%+ of my play is pick-3, 4 & 6.

Not always, but several excellent players that I have met are not terribly good at both. Very good chance I would be in line at a soup kitchen if I could only bet tri’s and supers. It’s just not the way my brain is wired.

My total mindset is finding explosive animals. If I do any one thing better than another is uncovering the ‘boom or bust types that need the perfect storm to get home, but drive payoffs up significantly when they do.

Pell Mell; without knowing how you structured your wagers, it sounds like your bets don't completely reflect your opinion. If your “key” is 20-1 and your putting $60 into a pick-3, I’m assuming you wheeled front and back to collect once. This is a very inefficient strategy and didn’t reflect your opinion in the surrounding races.

Steve Crist’s book “Exotic Betting” hoes into much greater detail than my typing skills will allow, but with your skills at handicapping it sounds like horizontal betting is right up your alley.

Dan, I think your right as far as how our brains are wired. Other than being able to spot particular types of horses that are my spot plays I guess I'm a lousy handicapper. When I have a play I seem to be able to figure how that race will play out if my horse wins so I have a lot more success with tris and supers than P-3s. I spent a lot of money on the P-6s also and it seems there are always 2 races out of the 6 that are very difficult to call. I cashed a lot of 4 out of 6 tickets and a few days ago I lost one race by a nose and had 5 tickets with 4 of 6 and nobody had 5 0f 6. Don't know what it would have paid but I could have had the 5 0f 6 pool because the horse was 20/1. Which reminds me of a P-6 at SA back in 2001. There was over a million carryover so I took a shot. In one of the middle races I had 2 15/1 shots and they hit the wire in a 3 horse photo with the chalk. Well the chalk won by a nose and I collected on 5 tickets woth $1,300. each for 5 0f 6. Had I won that photo I would have had the whole P-6 pool.:bang: On that day it seemed the winners just jumped off the page at me but I haven't been that close since. And, I only invested about $60. that day. Most of the time the P-6 can cost a lot of bucks to hit. I hope you can grab one of those big ones one day.:)

[ryesteve]

in the P3s and especially the 4s and 6s there are just too many unbettable races and if you hit the all button very often you can get into some serious bucks.
This pretty much sums it up. If you're spreading all over the board because you're not finding the other races to be bettable, you're better off just keeping your money in the race where you DO have an opinion. But, when you DO have an opinion on more than one race in a pk3 sequence, then it would totally make sense to hook them up, rather than just bet each race vertically.

[DanG]

Dan, I think your right as far as how our brains are wired. Other than being able to spot particular types of horses that are my spot plays I guess I'm a lousy handicapper. When I have a play I seem to be able to figure how that race will play out if my horse wins so I have a lot more success with tris and supers than P-3s. I spent a lot of money on the P-6s also and it seems there are always 2 races out of the 6 that are very difficult to call. I cashed a lot of 4 out of 6 tickets and a few days ago I lost one race by a nose and had 5 tickets with 4 of 6 and nobody had 5 0f 6. Don't know what it would have paid but I could have had the 5 0f 6 pool because the horse was 20/1. Which reminds me of a P-6 at SA back in 2001. There was over a million carryover so I took a shot. In one of the middle races I had 2 15/1 shots and they hit the wire in a 3 horse photo with the chalk. Well the chalk won by a nose and I collected on 5 tickets woth $1,300. each for 5 0f 6. Had I won that photo I would have had the whole P-6 pool.:bang: On that day it seemed the winners just jumped off the page at me but I haven't been that close since. And, I only invested about $60. that day. Most of the time the P-6 can cost a lot of bucks to hit. I hope you can grab one of those big ones one day.:)
You’re so right on the pick-6 PM.

If I didn’t stumble on partners who specialized in it, I would probably not be playing it often at all.

IMO…It’s one of the worst bets in racing if you’re under capitalized and can't structure bets correctly. I know we here the stories of the $8 ticket that gets 7 figures, but I would estimate more money is wasted in the P6 tickets >$16 and <$600 than in any other wager per capita.

Thankfully I keep records, so I can go back and realize the dry spells involved and near misses that can put some players in straight jackets. A story circulated for years in Vegas that a good player died of a heart-attack after being DQ’d in the final leg. Potential life changing scores can be as hazardous as they can be exhilarating.

I must admit if I was responsible for the chaotic legs you’re referring to in So Cal I might not be such an advocate of the wager. I’m on the hook only for the grass races, but as you said some of those 14 horse Cal bred maidens can make your head hurt. It takes years of experience and deep pockets to include some of those ugly looking bust out runners with your other strong opinions.

Seems like you have a good handle on what you do well, and that’s a major leg up on most who gamble.

Stay well;

[theiman]

Here's my problem with horizontal betting: One day I had a key horse at Rd or TDN, I don't remember which, and I played this horse as a key in the P3 on both sides of his race. My key horse won at 20/1 and I caught both P-3s which paid like $900. and $800. on a $60. investment.


I am far from an expert, but I think the problem is the size of the pick three pools vs supers and tri pools at tracks like RD and TDN. Without even looking at a chart I am guessing the horizontal pools are are about $3K-5K in size and the vertical pools could be in the $25K-$50K size(depending on day of the week).

I play So Cal and Mountaineer. I wouldnt ever consider a Mntn pick 3 pool as it is only about $3K-5K.(note: Mountain only offers 2 Pick Three pools a night)

I love the So Cal pick 4's.

I would rather play pick 4's vs vertical's as I believe 99.9% of people handicap for a horses success, winning the race, vs the horses failure to win by coming in third and fourth.

As for Horizontal vs Veritical bets everyone has their preference, so do what the results show you are best at.


Note: I just looked at Sundays TDN charts. They offer rolling pick3's and none of the pools were over $2K.
The trifectas had pools ranging from $21K to $41K.

[badcompany]

This pretty much sums it up. If you're spreading all over the board because you're not finding the other races to be bettable, you're better off just keeping your money in the race where you DO have an opinion. But, when you DO have an opinion on more than one race in a pk3 sequence, then it would totally make sense to hook them up, rather than just bet each race vertically.

In addition, many handicappers like to look at the toteboard before betting. With horizontals, one only sees the board for the first leg.

As far as winners being easier to pick than the 2nd and 3rd horse, it depends. I've caught triples without having a moment's worry; while, I've made win bets and have had to sweat out 10 minute photos.

[cj]

Blanket statements like this are just silly. Some races offer better "horizontal" opportunities, some offer better "vertical" opportunities, some are better just playing in straight pools, while many are best just left alone.

One thing I notice is how many people champion the takeout for P3s as being better than a parlay. How is betting a trifecta any different?

[DanG]

Blanket statements like this are just silly. Some races offer better "horizontal" opportunities, some offer better "vertical" opportunities, some are better just playing in straight pools, while many are best just left alone.

There not “silly” if they apply to you.

If you don’t think there is a different skill set in picking winners rather than 3rd place then we agree to disagree.

[Greyfox]

There not “silly” if they apply to you.

If you don’t think there is a different skill set in picking winners rather than 3rd place then we agree to disagree.

Exactly. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[cj]

There not “silly” if they apply to you.

If you don’t think there is a different skill set in picking winners rather than 3rd place then we agree to disagree.

Of course there is. But similarly, noone is good at trying to pick the winner of every type of race.

[DanG]

Of course there is. But similarly, noone is good at trying to pick the winner of every type of race.
Point taken and I certainly spread wider in races that I don’t have a great handle on. Having said that I rarely pass a pick-4 in NY or So Cal and it’s my best net by far outside of a partnership.

[JPinMaryland]

Picking Winners for horizontal bets is easier than trying to pick third place horses for trifectas (vertical bets).

Brilliant! :bang:

[46zilzal]

Blanket statements like this are just silly. Some races offer better "horizontal" opportunities, some offer better "vertical" opportunities, some are better just playing in straight pools, while many are best just left alone.


I have to agree. With the widely variable race cards day to day, no blanket statement like this covers reality.

[Greyfox]

Brilliant! :bang:

http://growabrain.typepad.com/growabrain/india1.jpg
.

[GaryG]

Point taken and I certainly spread wider in races that I don’t have a great handle on. Having said that I rarely pass a pick-4 in NY or So Cal and it’s my best net by far outside of a partnership.After years of win and exacta betting the P4 has become my favorite as well. The key for me was to not be afraid of opening up the ticket in chaotic races. It makes you appreciate the value of a solid 2-1 shot.

[DanG]

After years of win and exacta betting the P4 has become my favorite as well. The key for me was to not be afraid of opening up the ticket in chaotic races. It makes you appreciate the value of a solid 2-1 shot.
I agree Gary and that picture above your post summarizes my weekend! :lol:

[pic6vic]

PM

I believe bookmaker.com offers 8% rebates on exotics. However, I am not sure of their limits. They are an offshore, but do take US players

[nobeyerspls]

I maintain that the only time you should get involved in any exotic bet is if doing so ADDS VALUE to your opinion (an exception being a carryover day in the pick 6). Typically, that means you have to have more than one value oriented opinion on either the same race (exacta, trifect, super) or on one in a sequence (double, pick 3,4,6).

Many people that play a lot of exotics do so because they are trying to make a big score, but all they are really doing is bucking a higher take.

Exotics provide leverage and the price of that leverage is the higher takeout. If a pick4 doesn't have the potential to produce a 60-1 to 100-1 return on the amount wagered, then pass. The range for a pick3 is 30-1 to 50-1. Of course the key word here is potential. When none of the longer priced horses show up, you might get $40 for an $8 pick3. Not a great outcome but you had a chance at more.

[Pell Mell]

Everyone has made some good points and I guess it all boils down to different strokes for different folks. Actually, my main gripe with th P-3s,4s etc. is the time involved. My MO has always been to scan the PPs to find a particular type horse I may be interested in. I then print the page and proceed to cap that race to see if my horse of interest meets my other demands. If so then I will bet that race. This process only takes a couple of hours and I'm done and am able to pursue some of my other interests in life. Having to handicap every race at a couple of tracks takes more time and effort than I'm willing to give. I have always been able to make money betting and still have time for my wife, my dogs, fishing and hunting, photography, the company of friends, travel and a host of other enjoyable pursuits. I don't need the money that much to put in 10-12 hrs. a day sitting at a computer. And take it from an old man, if that's what your doing then your missing an awful lot of life. Just my opinion:)

[formula_2002]

http://www.bris.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=trktkout&header=off
This has got to help in determining if you should bet horizontal or vertical.
Hell, in some cases you would make a 166% preium betting while standing still (win bets) than bettin a pick three!!

[Niko]

Excellent points and I'd like to add one more. One reason you may not be having enough success is because your advantage is turned upside down in the horizontal bets. I've thought about this in the past.

I think if you really like a 2-1 the horizontals are a better bet because you can turn it into a 10-1 or 15-1 by utilizing the right horses in the other legs. However taking that 20-1 horse and trying to improve it's returns by 5-10X is very difficult. Therefore your advantage is turned upside down. Unless you can bet against the top 2 favorites in both legs or key them with confidence 1X2 or 2X1, you're losing your edge. Somebody said it's foolish (maybe even on this board) to be a wiseguy in more than one leg, and that really hit home with me. Also found you're much better off if your longshot is in the first leg or second leg if the first leg is won by the 3rd choice or higher. These are the spots I look for now.

It's also somewhat true in tri's and super's but because you're keying your longshot on top in the SAME race you're typically getting an overlay from the winner. Most people key one of the top 2-3 favorites on top.

Make sense?

[riskman]

dddog said-"Also, the more people that say it's the way they play or THE way to play then the more certain you can be that you DON'T want to do it that way.

One more thing and for me it's the most important and that's when you "find" 1 or 2 of the horses that make the whole thing worth doing you don't want to miss them at all costs and leveraging that horse is easier in a single race than spreading across 2-3 other races as well.


Also, it's not harder to find a horse that can only run 2 or 3 than it is to find all the ones that can win, I think it's just a canard, most people don't try to do it.

Oh by the way, I have sympathy for all horse players."


Excellent post--Totally agree with you.

[Kelso]

On the surface, you are not picking your spots when there might be a vulnerable favorite or two in the horizonal bets.


As I understand his post, PellMell keyed a 20-1 singleton into a five-race sequence. How much more selective could he have been? Am I misreading your comment?

[Greyfox]

As I understand his post, PellMell keyed a 20-1 singleton into a five-race sequence. How much more selective could he have been? Am I misreading your comment?

In the 20-1 example, he obviously did well and couldn't have been more selective there. But that's just one example.

But let's not forget his original statement at the start of the thread:
"I have bet a little over 16 grand with a return of a little more than 17 Gs for a grand total of a grand profit."

That comment raises the suspicion that he's not being selective and waiting for Pick 3's that have at least one and preferably two (or more) vulnerable favorites. But that's just a suspicion as I don't know the player.

[Kelso]

original statement at the start of the thread:
"I have bet a little over 16 grand with a return of a little more than 17 Gs for a grand total of a grand profit."

That comment raises the suspicion that he's not being selective and waiting for Pick 3's that have at least one and preferably two (or more) vulnerable favorites.


Now I understand. Thank you for elaborating.

[ArlJim78]

interesting discussion, as I have shifted my focus back and forth between horizontal and vertical countless times. long term stat's show i'm better at tri's and super's, but I am time and again drawn to horizontal plays like a moth to a flame. what i do now is target my approach to a card based on what it appears to offer me in terms of opinions, field size etc. depending on where my opinons fall within the race lineup, I will adjust my play accordingly.

For horizontal plays I can't resist the large pk4 pools in SoCal.

For vertical plays while most people are focusing on picking the winner, I focus on locating potential bombs from the lower half of the field that I feel have a good chance of blowing up a tri or super ticket. I can be a big winner this way even with a 2nd or 3rd place finish and being right once a day can be enough. also the proliferation of dime supers has made big super pools like at Keeneland irresistable.

speaking of Keeneland it wont be long now.:ThmbUp:

[classhandicapper]

Exotics provide leverage and the price of that leverage is the higher takeout. If a pick4 doesn't have the potential to produce a 60-1 to 100-1 return on the amount wagered, then pass. The range for a pick3 is 30-1 to 50-1. Of course the key word here is potential. When none of the longer priced horses show up, you might get $40 for an $8 pick3. Not a great outcome but you had a chance at more.

To me, every single exotic bet I make has a probability and payoff associated with it that I have to weigh. Those two things make it either an underlay or an overlay just like any win bet.

Granted, there are many types of exotics where we don't know the payoff beforehand. But we do know the win odds and we know that there is usually a reasonable relationship between the two. We may also have some insights into the betting patterns of the public.

Using an exacta as a example. If I like a horse to win and think he's a bit of an overlay, the only way I am going to use him in an exacta is if I think the public is also overbetting or underbetting another horse in the race to come in second. That way I can key my overlay on top of the other overlay (perhaps even box them) or leave off the underlay and key him with a few of the other horses. That approach compounds the value and more than makes up for the added exotic take. If I don't have that adiitional value oriented opinion, there is absolutely no reason to play any exactas trying to win a few extra dollars. All I'd be doing is bucking the higher exotic take.

The same principle is applicable to doubles, triples, the pick 3, pick 4, pick 6 etc....

If you don't have value hooked to value on all your tickets all you are doing is bucking a higher take on those individual tickets.

IMHO, most people spread WAY TOO WIDE in their exotic wagers trying to hit the ticket.

It's certainly possible that if you play a lot of combinations that the net of all the overlaid and underlaid tickets is still an overlay.

However, that is really no different than playing 2 horses to win in a situation where you really think only one is an overlay. The net of the two may still be profitable, but by including the underlay in order to cash more often you are costing yourself money.

If you are a marginal player to begin with, that kind of thinking could easily turn you from a winner into a loser.