View Full Version : Master Magician & Synthetic Tracks
levinmpa
09-16-2007, 10:32 AM
Just curious of how Master Magician users have done on the new synthetic surfaces? The Keeneland and Del Mar Poly races seem to be run like turf events. How have the PPF figures performed on these surfaces? The Cushion surface seems to play more like a dirt surface. Have the PBS numbers held up on the Cushion? I have MM, but haven't used it in quite a while. If anyone wants to share their impressions, I would appreciate it.
gia321
09-16-2007, 10:49 AM
Hello
I dont think you will find many answers hear. Most of the people who use TMM and TMH have left this site becouse It seems that instead of talking about the software, all that is done is Mike bashing.. I still like this site there is a lot of good info..
As to the questions, it is hard. to say thatpoly tracks are the same as turf is saying a lot. the mai problem with the poltracks is there for a lot of the tracks its hard to come up with good numbers. I personly hate poly and wish it was never mad(atleast for some tracks) you dont need t at Del mar. look what hap this year, slow slow slow, not that it is bad to be slow its jst vary hard to adjust the numbers..
As forTMM, I know there is not a better progra ot there. it does not pick winners you have to interpret the info. all i can say is without it i never would have hit the 3rd race super at Cald yesterday for $16000 for a dollors, it came 2-8-1-4, a 7.2 over 35-1 -16- ex .
Thanks and sorry fornot answering the question completely
Blackgold
09-16-2007, 11:36 AM
I've had some small success with turf to poly and vice/versa.
However, I'm rarely playing the synthetics anywhere they have it because there will be several years before reliable pars are defined, so there are really no PBS ratings.
The PPF is holding up well, but you have to use some judgement for incredible slow calls.
DMR was a joke.
Good luck!
gia321
09-16-2007, 11:51 AM
Nice post. I totally greeeee
The Judge
09-16-2007, 12:00 PM
Who has left this site and where did they go. Mike is a big boy and can take care of himself. Plus TMM speaks for itself its a powerful program. I didn't keep track of polytracks but what can you do either you use the program or you don't.
BETKING
09-16-2007, 03:09 PM
I still use the old Handicapping Magician and it still is a very strong program. The PBS numbers are not very good but the PPF numbers are terrific. I have found a combination of Speed Handicapper and Magician to be the best thing that I have found. When the Carroll speed figs match the Magician it is time to get the big money out!! It is "dyn-a-mite".
levinmpa
09-17-2007, 09:14 AM
Thanks for those who replied. I know the PPF figures are quite good in turf races, and since those Poly routes at Kee and Dmr are run similarly, I thought the PPF's might be equally good. Once Keeneland starts, I'll download some cards and see how it goes.
levinmpa
09-17-2007, 10:34 AM
Thanks to Tom for PMing me a site with a TMM forum. Here is an interesting post regarding Dmr Poly races.
Okay, now that they meet is almost over, I have a few observations about handicapping Del Mar. This polytrack thing makes handicapping very, very difficult. I remember when polytrack first appeared, there was concern that it would homogenize racing. It seems that the opposite has occurred. Poly has all but elimated what was once termed "the universal track bias," that bias being speed.
What is striking to me is how different poly surfaces - not talking cushion here - play so differently. Case in point: compare the PPFs for Keeneland and Del Mar. By now you have probably all seen that a very high PPF at Del Mar is anying 0 and above. At Keeneland, the PPFs are much, much higer. They are so high in fact, that I usually exclude them as being too high (inflated) for use in handicapping.
So why are Keeneland PPFs so high and Del Mar PPFs so low when the surface is theoretically the same? My first theory is that they are not exactly the same. The tracks may have been done by the same company with the same materials, but that does not mean they are identical. The mix may be different due to expected climates, etc. My main belief, however, is an agreement with the trainers in SoCal. The afternoon temperatures result in a loose, and extremely tiring track. This tiring track equates to very slow final fractions, final quarter miles, and PPFs.
Many people believe that polytrack plays most similarly to turf. I think that this Del Mar meet shows that this is not the case, at least for Del Mar. The Keeneland surface certainly plays more like turf than does Del Mar (in terms of higher PPFs), but that looks to have more to do with the running style of the races than the surface itself. This means that if you rely on PPFs from turf races when handicapping races to be run on the Del Mar poly you will be left with a highly inaccurate picture of what the horses are capable of doing. There is no way that horses can run a big PPF on the poly, thus, if you use the large PPFs born of turf races, you will grossly inflate a horse's ability. My opinion of using turf lines in dirt/poly races is 100% different for the Hollywood Park cushion track. That track actually does play more like turf as the horses actually some bounce in their step by the time they hit the stretch.
So, what does a handicapper do? Turf lines don't work. PPF by itself discrimiates against Del Mar running lines. There are no PBS numbers available yet. Here is what I do:
I add points to Del Mar PPFs based on the 2nd call pace. Here is a chart for sprints.
< 46.0 = +13
46.0 = +12
46.1 = +12
46.2 = +11
46.3 = +11
46.4 = +10
47.0 = +10
47.1 = +10
47.2 = + 9
47.3 = + 9
47.4 = + 8
48.0 = + 8
> 48.0 = +7
This will give a much more accurate reflection of what horses who have run on the Del Mar polytrack are capable of doing today. Using this method will also favor, albeit slightly, horses that have run on the Del Mar surface. This is good as it indicates condition as I will discuss below.
Another observation I have made is that deep closers very seldom win, even if the race comes up Heavy Pressure. My theory here is that the closers get just as tired as the early horses and do generally slow down at the same rate as the other horses. It seems that the horses that win are those that are near the lead and also have the conditioning to last to the wire. Conditioning is very important for horses running at Del Mar. I like to see horses that have trained on the surface and/or horses that have a race on the surface.
Last year, a horse called Flamethrowingtexan won the Longacres Mile. The race was run in typical Emerald Downs fashion; two horses engaged in a duel around the track, putting up fast fractions, and seeing their speed carry them to the wire. 'Texan shipped to Hawthorne later in the summer and ran on a much deeper, more tiring surface. 'Texan came into the race in great form off a GIII win and got trounced. The Hawthorne surface took a toll and required a much different type of conditioning. This is how I perceive the Del Mar poly to be.
That's my take on the Del Mar poly. My interest will now turn to the Santa Anita cushion track. It should play similar to Hollywood Park, but will it? Time will tell.
ponypro
09-17-2007, 01:20 PM
The magicians havent left. TMM is very good , PPF is may favorite variable. But it does require alot of experience and I think his work requires alot of intellectual commitment. As for poly, I think its a work in progress and the surface changes so much I think everyone struggles with it.
As for Pizzolla, I have looked at almost every mainstream "system" ever created and I think Michael is the smartest guy playing today,Period. Not the most popular, but a true genious level handle on the game. I am really looking forward to his TMM upgrades in the next few months.
gia321
09-17-2007, 07:42 PM
Well it looks like not everyone has left, but a lot have. Ilike this forum, it just seemed a whil back that an talk about Mike P was bad. I would realy like to see any other programs that consistalny gives you the tools to find $20-40-90 wiiners let alone the exotics. if there is please tell us what it is called
The new program Blac magic should be unreal and also cost a lot min of $1500, but well worth it..
njcurveball
09-17-2007, 09:11 PM
I would realy like to see any other programs that consistalny gives you the tools to find $20-40-90 wiiners let alone the exotics. if there is please tell us what it is called
It is called HTR and not only do the Users hit winners, but they also win big money in tournaments. :ThmbUp:
This is just in answer to your queston, not a dig against the Master Magician which got a kudo from the guy who won the World Series.
However, I have seen good handicappers win with just about every Sartin program, whether it was Phase 3, Synergism, Kgen, Thoromation, Energy, or the newer ones.
Sartin himself told me, "guys like Brohamer can win with ANY program!"
I guess I should say something about it being the indian and not the arrow and then get out of here before the tomatoes are thrown! :faint:
Donnie@HTR
09-17-2007, 10:06 PM
I got your back Jim!!
I agree. The name of the program is HTR.
Also, no knocks against MM or any other software. The question was, I would realy like to see any other programs that consistalny gives you the tools to find $20-40-90 wiiners let alone the exotics. if there is please tell us what it is called, HTR answers that challenge consistently and unequivocally.
Is that true though? $1500 for an upgrade? That's equal to 12.5 months of data for HTR thru HDW! Don't anybody ever tell Massa what his competitors are doing!! YIKES!!
Get over here, NJ...help me circle the wagons! We ain't running anywhere! :D
Donnie@HTR
09-17-2007, 10:10 PM
But really....it's not the tool, is it? It's the operator. That's what Sartin was pointing out about Brohammer...
njcurveball
09-17-2007, 10:12 PM
The new program Blac magic should be unreal and also cost a lot min of $1500, but well worth it..
I don't begrudge any software vendor making money. And perhaps for the best marksmen, $1,500 is well worth it.
My friend is the State Champion in shooting and his gun costs something like $8,000. For him it is well worth it.
For me, I would have to learn much more, practice much more, compete, and then do steps 1-3 over and over to get to that level.
For the Master Marksmen, $1,500 may be well worth it.
Thanks for the back-up Donnie, but there is no false hope for those without the proper attitude and skills with HTR or the Master Magician or any other program.
Now I am putting on my bear skin coat and going on a Vision Quest.
Jim
Donnie@HTR
09-17-2007, 10:23 PM
How do I say this without sounding too condescending, cause the LAST thing I am trying to do here is start a pissing match with anyone.....?
Jim, you are absolutely correct. If the user feels the tool is worth the money, no screeching from me.
I just wrote and then erased a long-winded response. But you know. I re-read it and decided it's not worth anyone's time reading that whole thing. And I know that it would be taken wrong. So instead....
Bravo! I champion anyone attempting to better this game, no matter the cost!
SignUpKing
09-18-2007, 01:12 AM
The magicians havent left. TMM is very good , PPF is may favorite variable. But it does require alot of experience and I think his work requires alot of intellectual commitment. As for poly, I think its a work in progress and the surface changes so much I think everyone struggles with it.
As for Pizzolla, I have looked at almost every mainstream "system" ever created and I think Michael is the smartest guy playing today,Period. Not the most popular, but a true genious level handle on the game. I am really looking forward to his TMM upgrades in the next few months.
Pizzolla looks at the game the only way you can, if you want to win (i.e., profit). To me, a genius at finding the prices. And that is what Pizzolla is about.
He taught me well. I only go to the machines when the public and the "sharpies" are asleep. Maybe only 2 times out of 10 races. And that is why my handle is SignUpKing.
For the record, I do not use his software, just his methodolgies. And my own.
njcurveball
09-18-2007, 02:04 PM
For the record, I do not use his software, just his methodolgies. And my own.
So you aren't going to be spending $1,500 for his new stuff?
Wickel
09-18-2007, 04:16 PM
I've been hearing $1,500, and as high as $2,000. For this price, it better be a black box, or close to it!! I'm a big MP fan and excited about Black Magic, but hopefully it'll be priced in the $400-$600 range--this coming from a loyal customer who's already spent plenty on earlier software, although I've never attended a seminar.
njcurveball
09-18-2007, 04:54 PM
I've been hearing $1,500, and as high as $2,000.
And how much would it cost to download all the tracks and results for a year?
gia321
09-18-2007, 05:59 PM
well yes for a $2 better @1000+ for a program is a lot, but my question would be why would someone who does not have the bank roll ,,want or need an advnced program like this. also it is not an upgrade it is a new rogram.
And ther is no way it will cost 400-600, that is dreaming.....
I've been hearing $1,500, and as high as $2,000. For this price, it better be a black box, or close to it!! I'm a big MP fan and excited about Black Magic, but hopefully it'll be priced in the $400-$600 range--this coming from a loyal customer who's already spent plenty on earlier software, although I've never attended a seminar.
If the earlier software works, why would you need the new stuff?
And if it didn't......
How many ways can you use a fulcrum and third fraction?
SignUpKing
09-18-2007, 10:26 PM
So you aren't going to be spending $1,500 for his new stuff?
No. What I am doing, works.
gia321
09-18-2007, 10:38 PM
If the earlier software works, why would you need the new stuff?
And if it didn't......
How many ways can you use a fulcrum and third fraction?
Gee I dont know.. mabe becouse the new program can and will make the process easier....and also mabe point you toward horses you would not see before..
Donnie@HTR
09-18-2007, 11:04 PM
Thanks gia...I stand corrected. We obviously are talking about a new program here, not an upgrade.
Gee I dont know.. mabe becouse the new program can and will make the process easier....and also mabe point you toward horses you would not see before..
$1500 for a maybe...where do I sign up?
And, I was replying to Wickle, not you.
headhawg
09-19-2007, 10:12 AM
If the earlier software works, why would you need the new stuff?
And if it didn't......
How many ways can you use a fulcrum and third fraction?Sounds like Mike learned a lot from the Doc: keep pumping out software that is a variation of the same theme -- only charge more $$$. I guess you could call it "The Sartin Model".
jandrus
09-19-2007, 10:34 AM
A good friend of mine used all of mikes programs. he takes readouts from all the programs to set up a race. I know he won $3000+ last week. he can"t wait till the new program comes out. he will buy it cause he got deep pockets. he hoping it will combine all of the programs and angles.
Lefty
09-19-2007, 11:38 AM
As I understand it from the "rant" MP sent last week, This new prgm will be a melding of TMM and TMH.
Why would people without deep pockets want it?To get to the point where we have the deep pockets. And we're curious as cats and don't send me the old bromide...
njcurveball
09-19-2007, 02:17 PM
Why would people without deep pockets want it?
Actually you got the question backwards. Why would people with empty pockets NEED it?
If the data is $120 a month for all tracks and results like HDW, you could get a program like HTR AND a years worth of data for the same price.
"If the data is $120 a month for all tracks and results like HDW, you could get a program like HTR AND a years worth of data for the same price."
Lot of speculation and little facts becuase there is no public knowledge as to specifically what the new program willl do or what it will cost.
If it is something like what was demo'd at the last seminar (so long ago now) it will be a combo of TMM and HM with extras, which is nothing like HTR or other programs. I'm not saying it's better I'm just saying it will be different.
It will have value to some and -0- to others
Cato
What's the deal on the new Post Time Daily?
It was supposed to be out in two days, a week ago?
mikeb
09-19-2007, 03:15 PM
If the earlier software works, why would you need the new stuff?
And if it didn't......
How many ways can you use a fulcrum and third fraction?llent
Excellent point Tom!
njcurveball
09-19-2007, 05:29 PM
It will have value to some and -0- to others
Cato
Spot on call! :ThmbUp:
Lefty
09-19-2007, 07:11 PM
njcurve, I wasn't posing the deep pockets q, i was answering it. Iy anybody on this board wants to quote me would it bee to friggin much to ask that you use the full quote?
njcurveball
09-19-2007, 09:33 PM
As I understand it from the "rant" MP sent last week, This new prgm will be a melding of TMM and TMH.
Why would people without deep pockets want it?To get to the point where we have the deep pockets. And we're curious as cats and don't send me the old bromide...
For those who misunderstood my abbreviating this quote from Lefty, I would like to offer this as my apology! :jump:
For those without deep pockets, if you think a $1,500 program or even a $15,000 program is going to give you a huge bankroll and a way to easy street I recommend borrowing all you can and betting as much as they will let you borrow! :ThmbUp:
gia321
09-19-2007, 09:50 PM
Sounds like Mike learned a lot from the Doc: keep pumping out software that is a variation of the same theme -- only charge more $$$. I guess you could call it "The Sartin Model".
This is why I said a lot of people left the site. no constructive talk just making comments about MP. also if yo knw anyhing MP idea are vry diffthen Sartin, he left that school of thought a long time ago.
Lefty
09-19-2007, 09:58 PM
nj, thanks. Asfar as to the latter, we can only hope and dream, eh what...
What's the deal on the new Post Time Daily?
It was supposed to be out in two days, a week ago?
Well, it's up now, but after installing, I get errors about needing Net Framework v2.050272.....then go to MS to get it and all kinds of warnings and lists of problems assosiated with it, and registry issues. PASS. I uninstalled it. Sorry Mikey....not interested.
ponypro
09-19-2007, 11:55 PM
Ive been playing with it for a couple of hours. Awesome features, works fine on my computer
Lefty
09-19-2007, 11:57 PM
This is why I said a lot of people left the site. no constructive talk just making comments about MP. also if yo knw anyhing MP idea are vry diffthen Sartin, he left that school of thought a long time ago.
Gia, i repect MM, but removed from Sartin? His PPF figs and PBS figs were developedwhile he was with sArtin as was the fulcrum. MM is based on those figs. His TMH is a big update of TPR that was developed under the auspices of Sartin. Maybe not as far removed as you think.
Installed it easily. Nice appearance and easy to use. Thanks Mikey.
The Judge
09-20-2007, 02:56 AM
Some one says something about Pizzola and people leave the forum not likely. To hard core here we've heard it all. Just downloaded the "New Free Posttime Daily" all I can say is WoW! It comes with some pre-loaded races to checkout. This could be a great stand alone handicapping program. Its all there.
TMM is a powerful program anyone that has the program and is having trouble winning on a consistant basis (or if you are going to get the program TMM )with hugh longshots I sugget that you invest in the Value Tec Tapes. Listen to these tapes and do what Micheal says, try it his way for awhile I don't think you will go back to betting the solid 8/5 shot too soon.
You will know when to use PBS and when to use PPF when to play PNP "pig not a pig".
Disclaimer…
Here is a completely biased / personal observation / borderline cheap shot and I’ve never met Pizzolla in my life.
Why after reading “Handicapping Magic” did I almost feel a need to delouse? It’s weird; I enjoyed the book, yet I felt like I was buying a used car with saw dust in the transmission. It could very well be my deep admiration of the legal profession, :rolleyes: but something just didn’t sit right.
OK…sorry about that. Back to the real thread. :D
The Judge
09-20-2007, 10:44 AM
I felt fine after reading it. Its a method that can be done by pen and paper don't need a computer at all. 1 st. time I saw the PBS numbers was in the Follow Up in an article by Pizzola many years ago.
If you have the book you have the system but who wants to spend the time making the figures and the calls that the program can do automatically?
What is he selling you already bought the book and you don't have to have the computer program?
I felt fine after reading it. Its a method that can be done by pen and paper don't need a computer at all. 1 st. time I saw the PBS numbers was in the Follow Up in an article by Pizzola many years ago.
If you have the book you have the system but who wants to spend the time making the figures and the calls that the program can do automatically?
What is he selling you already bought the book and you don't have to have the computer program?
Fair enough…
As I said, just a personal observation and a feeling really; not based on any tangible.
I have a flaw in dealing with what my brain perceives as salesman. After years with DRF in shopping for software I checked out all the major App’s and if it came off as too slick or was attempting the “hard sell”, it just turned me off.
That’s the “feeling” I got after reading Mike’s book. To be honest I never tried any of his methods so I can’t comment on them one way or another. There was just too much un-adjusted raw data in his calculations as I remember. Good insights in the ‘form cycle window though. :ThmbUp:
Again…All books seem to add something to ones arsenal and sometimes they become a foundation for a successful approach. Pizzolla and in particular the late Eric Landjahr (RIP) are / were very influential figures.
shanta
09-20-2007, 11:18 AM
This is why I said a lot of people left the site. no constructive talk just making comments about MP. also if yo knw anyhing MP idea are vry diffthen Sartin, he left that school of thought a long time ago.
The ORIGINAL meaning of MP's "Pbs" numbers:
Pizzola/Bradshaw/Sartin
Ask Mike who's idea they were at the start. Jim "the Hat" Bradshaw will be the answer.
So much for "leaving that school of thought a long time ago". SOME of what he is doing today is a direct result of that "school".
Having said that MP has some VERY good ideas relating to horses POSITIONAL running styles that differ from Sartin's computer dependent energy styles.
VERY good ideas coupled with an insistence on betting VALUE (Price) horses.
Mike is also an extremely hard worker when it comes to working races. Got this straight from Charter members Bob Cochran and Jim "the Hat" who sat side by side with him for years working races.
Bob told me "if you wanted to find Michael all you had to do was look for Jimmy. Michael would be planted right next to him picking his brain".
I wish him the best of luck with his software and whatever program he comes out with. To each his own
Richie
banacek
09-20-2007, 11:25 AM
There was just too much un-adjusted raw data in his calculations as I remember.
I enjoyed Michael's book, but this is the thing that really bothered me too. Maybe the new software deals with this?
46zilzal
09-20-2007, 12:06 PM
The Pizzolla turf window changed my fortunes on the grass. A simple maneuver he utilized made the difference in my turf experiences change on par as from night to day.
Wickel
09-20-2007, 03:05 PM
"Black Magic" is not a brand new software. It is an upgrade. Like Lefty said earlier in this thread, "It's a melding of TMH and TMM"--plus some very impressive bells and whistles. The point I was trying to make in my earlier post was that for us who red the book, bought "Handicapping Magic" software, TMM, TMH (I never purchased this one) and then the upgrades with Value Tech, etc., I don't think the new software should be priced above $600. Even $600 is steep.
Someone asked earlier, "Why would I buy it anyway?" Just like most of us, I am basically just curious. Will I have to shell out for my curiosity? More than likely.
By the way: Can anyone tell me how the TMM and the TMH differed?
mhrussell
09-20-2007, 06:31 PM
Tom-
Did you try downloading the version of NetFrame v2 directly from the PTS website? Maybe going to MS and downloading there caused you problems.
I think Youbet gave your computer rabies; time to shoot it! :D
I downloaded it - but what do I do with it?
It's an application.....do I run it everytime I want to use PTD2?
I don't see any instructions.
Light
09-20-2007, 08:15 PM
Tom
After downloading and installing Net F,you wont need to run it everytime. Only PTD looks for it everytime.
This stuff looks like alot of copycat hoopla. Bris and drf have the same custumizations in their software. PTD and the Pizzola video make a big deal about "new" features that I've been using for years. :sleeping:
They also have a feature for selections. Checked out BM for the free day included and it missed an even $ horse and a 4-5 horse.Their speed and pace ratings ranked them mid pack to bottom.So far,not looking like data I want to synthesize with software costing hundreds and thousands of $.
gia321
09-20-2007, 09:43 PM
Gia, i repect MM, but removed from Sartin? His PPF figs and PBS figs were developedwhile he was with sArtin as was the fulcrum. MM is based on those figs. His TMH is a big update of TPR that was developed under the auspices of Sartin. Maybe not as far removed as you think.
the pbs numbers where mad a long time ago, he uses the PPF a lot more wich has nothing to do with sartin.
I am not trying to defend ur say anything eather way.. al I can say is that with out TMM and MP I never in my life would have hit a six figure super! never
Lefty
09-20-2007, 10:24 PM
I'm not denigrating Michael. I like him a lot. Handicapping Magic is one of my fav books.Just a lot of SArtin inthose prgms and there's no belying that. Congrats on your super.
gia321
09-20-2007, 11:10 PM
I'm not denigrating Michael. I like him a lot. Handicapping Magic is one of my fav books.Just a lot of SArtin inthose prgms and there's no belying that. Congrats on your super.
Thanks Lefty
I ust feel that some time i have to defend TMM, I know there are a lot of good programs out there. and yes a $1000 plus program is a lot,
Tom
After downloading and installing Net F,you wont need to run it everytime. Only PTD looks for it everytime.
Thanks, Light.
I'll give it a try....curious to see what all the hoopla is about.
I agree that the pace figs are not too good - I used to use them when PDT first came out under its old name and saw very few wininers.
SignUpKing
09-20-2007, 11:22 PM
Tom
After downloading and installing Net F,you wont need to run it everytime. Only PTD looks for it everytime.
This stuff looks like alot of copycat hoopla. Bris and drf have the same custumizations in their software. PTD and the Pizzola video make a big deal about "new" features that I've been using for years. :sleeping:
They also have a feature for selections. Checked out BM for the free day included and it missed an even $ horse and a 4-5 horse.Their speed and pace ratings ranked them mid pack to bottom.So far,not looking like data I want to synthesize with software costing hundreds and thousands of $.
Actually, sounds like a good program. A program that will find prices. To hell with even-$ and 4-5 shots.
One day does not make a program, nor a handicapper.
Light (and all)
Michael's and Eric's Form was the first electronic Form avaialble on the internet and had all the sorting options (early pace, win at this distance, etc) long ago. All the forms that followed copied a lot from Michael's original stuff (and added a few things)
I'm not sure how a Form can "miss" a race (!) but anyone I know that is into handiacappng is not lookin for even money horses. In fact I think less of a program when it points me to even money!
Cheers, Cato
Light
09-21-2007, 02:54 AM
Since most profits come from betting against a false favorite and the rest comes from not betting against a legitamate favorite the importance of accurate ratings cannot be downplayed.
Tom Barrister
09-21-2007, 02:00 PM
Light (and all)
Michael's and Eric's Form was the first electronic Form avaialble on the internet and had all the sorting options (early pace, win at this distance, etc) long ago. All the forms that followed copied a lot from Michael's original stuff (and added a few things)
I'm not sure how a Form can "miss" a race (!) but anyone I know that is into handiacappng is not lookin for even money horses. In fact I think less of a program when it points me to even money!
Cheers, Cato
No it wasn't. BRIS had the online PDF form and free software that created the form from their data files years earlier, and so did TSN. So did Trackmaster. Some programs that used those and HDW data made a form from the data files. ITS might have been the first one to offer filtering, but that was hardly something that everybody copied.
I don't bet even money horses, but I'm going to think a lot less of a program that consistently misses them.
What's this new brainchild Michael has out: the tenth major incarnation of his since he broke off with "Doc" in 1989 or whenever? The 20th? The 40th? All cost a thousand or more. Why so much, especially if he's making lots of money using his methodology? I don't buy into the "I set the price high to be sure only serious handicappers buy it" line. $300 will keep the recreational people away just as easily. I don't buy into the "programming is expensive" routine, either. Other guys are selling their software for a lot less. Not to mention the fact that the buyer will have to go to PTD for data files that work with the program, and we know who one of the owners of PTD is: Pizzolla.
I don't know if Michael's programs work, because I've never bought one or seen one in action. I read his book, and it wasn't my breed of cat. I can see how it could work for others.
I could tell you a story about how somebody in the line next to me at the Mirage bet six horses to win in a ten horse race...on six tickets...got lucky and hit a $15.00 horse, then showed everybody after the race the winning ticket......but I won't get into it.
Getting back to the data files....something I haven't seen mentioned here. These programs will use Michael's PTD files, right? Will they be the standard PTD files, or will the user have to pay huge prices for fancy data files, ala Allways? If they use the standard file, will they have an unlimited monthly rate like TSN, DRF, and HDW, or will the user have to pay $1 to $1.50 per file? At $1 a file, that could be over $300 a month for somebody downloading a lot of tracks. But I guess some one willing to pay $1,500 for the program won't care about another $300 a month.
When it was Handicapper's Daily, it was the first one I saw with al lthe filtering options, and their own pace figures. They even had the Beyer Figs to start out! After they were no longer available, they made thier own.
For someone who has never used nor seen any of his programs, you sure have a lot of issues. I assure you, many people out there are happy with them, even though there have been nowhere near 20, 30, 40 versions. This is the V2 of his past performance - FREE - software, not his handicapping line.
As far as files, if you are winning, who cares?
Tom Barrister
09-21-2007, 05:33 PM
When it was Handicapper's Daily, it was the first one I saw with al lthe filtering options, and their own pace figures. They even had the Beyer Figs to start out! After they were no longer available, they made thier own.
For someone who has never used nor seen any of his programs, you sure have a lot of issues. I assure you, many people out there are happy with them, even though there have been nowhere near 20, 30, 40 versions. This is the V2 of his past performance - FREE - software, not his handicapping line.
As far as files, if you are winning, who cares?
I have a major issue with a man who buys tickets on 60% of the horses in a race so that he can show the winner to prospective program purchasers. If the program works so well, why is such a tactic necessary?
And if HDW quadruples the price of its monthly HTR downloads to $480, you won't make a peep, right? "If you are winning, who cares?
Well, I would say one would be a FOOL to stop paying for the data if one were winning. Of course at some popint, the price would exceed the winnings. But that is not really your agenda here, is it now? ;)
Tom Barrister
09-22-2007, 12:51 AM
If I have any "agenda", it's to cut through the bullshit and get to the truth. I don't mince words, I'll tread on toes because of it, and if that makes me disliked by some/many/all then so be it.
One thing I don't do is stalk somebody from thread to thread with wise-ass comments.
If you put it out there, expect replies - especially when you make accusations about someone I know and respect. You said there were no $100 horses and I posted that there were, one in the time frame - which you defined, btw, not the poster who made the statement.
We were disccussing specific software, then you came along and started atacking it, and Pizzola, when you admit yoiu have never seen it. If calling you out on that was a wise-assed comments, so be it. You went off topic.
The Judge
09-22-2007, 10:57 AM
Seeing as how it was free and the race came loaded with Posttimedaily I took a look at the selections and the results. After looking at the races the program selector had a pretty good day in speed and pace rating.
In race 8 it nailed Outwest for $9.40 and in race 6 it put you on to Two Step Cat $18.60. It also had some of the other low price horses in the other races on a chalky day for the most part.http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbSummaryResultsDisplay.cfm?TRK=BM&CY=USA&DATE=08/29/2007&STYLE=EQB
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