The Green Monkey

[Premier Turf Club]

Quick physicality anaylysis of the $16mm yearling scheduled to make his first start at BEL today.

Nice confirmation, built like a miler, about 15.3 hands.

Good conformation, but nothing that jumps out and makes you say wow.

Very large flat feet. Can't figure out where those feet come from given the family.

Should be very much plus turf and good on artificial, though the back-end weakness might be a concern.


Will probably win today at 1/5 but doesn't look like a dirt sprinter.

[HorseRun]

way to cover yourself , doesnt look like a dirt sprinter but wins at 1-5 in a dirt sprint...which one is it, take a stand, i say he takes the lead and gets beat

[098poi]

I'll take Holla Bend (#5) at the current 7-1.:jump:

[betovernetcapper]

It's 6 min to post and the prob' GM payoffs are
$3.20 to win
$3.75 place (minimum)
$2.1 to 2.20 to show

[HorseRun]

if he doesnt win, he will not place.....bet Migs to win

[betovernetcapper]

Prob right-just obseving 2 min to post still higher to place than win

[Marlin]

I'd say at 16 million he will win otherwise he will never see the turf (or maybe another start).:)

[cj]

Nice effort. :lol:

[Marlin]

That was weak!

[DJofSD]

"...checks in a disappointing third." says the man.

[098poi]

I only lost 5$ on that one! (Not 16 mil)

[Premier Turf Club]

way to cover yourself , doesnt look like a dirt sprinter but wins at 1-5 in a dirt sprint...which one is it, take a stand, i say he takes the lead and gets beat

Didn't bet the race. I was making a smart ass comment at end like I always bet against Pletcher horses that have no advantage and someone they win anyway.

I just wanted to see him run. I think its safe to say they're not going to get their $16 million back.

[HorseRun]

that $16 million figure, is about as real as my plastic girlfriend

[DanG]

Did he finish yet? :eek: :eek:

[Tom]

$15 million, 900 thousand to go!:lol:

[Bill Olmsted]

I think the monkey needs a drop in class.

[betovernetcapper]

Horse is odds on in his debut and beats half the field. Continue to bet in his next 4 starts or until you amass 16 million dollars.

[David-LV]

The Green Monkey had no idea that they paid $16 million for him.:confused:

So I don't think we can blame the horse for his poor performance.:confused:

_________
David

[bobphilo]

The Green Monkey had no idea that they paid $16 million for him.:confused:

So I don't think we can blame the horse for his poor performance.:confused:

_________
David

Right, Fortunately the horse is blissfully unaware of all the hoopla over his inflated purchase price and will still enjoy his dinner in his comfortable stall tonight.

Bob

[midnight]

Serves them right, getting into a bidding war over a 1 furlong workout.

[joeyreb]

With problems getting on the track - 2/5 fav??

People are nuts.... He drew a tough field, He made my two selections nice prices in here

[Spendabuck85]

I'll be surprised if they run him again. How many times will Pletcher want to go through the media scrutiny like today.

[David-LV]

I'll be surprised if they run him again. How many times will Pletcher want to go through the media scrutiny like today.

I DOUBT THAT TODD PLETCHER HAS ANY SAY AS TO RUNNING HIM AGAIN.

HE WILL BE WORTH A BIG FAT ZERO IF THEY DON'T RUN HIM AGAIN.

YOU WILL SEE HIM AS QUICK AS THEY CAN FIND A RACE FOR HIM PROVIDED HE CAME OUT OF TODAY'S RACE IN GOOD SHAPE.

_______
DAVID

[banacek]

Agreed $16 miliion dollars is nuts. It's probably just me, but it seems like everyone is enjoying a bit too much that this horse isn't working out. He gave the sport lots of press - and it sure can use that. It is a horse. I don't see much humour in the situation. I feel sorry for the horse, grooms, trainer and other connections and sorry for the owners - not $16 million dollars worth of sorry, but I have some empathy. Anyone who does all the work to bring a horse to the races - whether he is a plug that can't run with $5000 maidens at a cheap track or big $ yearling who doesn't work out in the big leagues - has my respect.

[David-LV]

Agreed $16 miliion dollars is nuts. It's probably just me, but it seems like everyone is enjoying a bit too much that this horse isn't working out. He gave the sport lots of press - and it sure can use that. It is a horse. I don't see much humour in the situation. I feel sorry for the horse, grooms, trainer and other connections and sorry for the owners - not $16 million dollars worth of sorry, but I have some empathy. Anyone who does all the work to bring a horse to the races - whether he is a plug that can't run with $5000 maidens at a cheap track or big $ yearling who doesn't work out in the big leagues - has my respect.





WELL SPOKEN.

_________
DAVID

[JustMissed]

Will probably win today at 1/5 but doesn't look like a dirt sprinter.

JM :confused:

[ceejay]

I know plenty of companies have drilled $16MM dry holes. That happens in risk-based businesses.

[Premier Turf Club]

I lay odds his next start is on the grass. I can't think of any reason they even ran him on dirt, other than they felt they had to at least once.

It's tough to say how much ability he will ever have, but he isn't going to win stakes on dirt. He also didn't look good going to the post today; flat walk, tad short, east-west tail.

[Cangamble]

What usually happens is they will find a fake injury and retire him to stud before he does anymore damage to his stud value.
But then again, how much could he be worth as a stud right now anyway?

[kenwoodallpromos]

What usually happens is they will find a fake injury and retire him to stud before he does anymore damage to his stud value.
But then again, how much could he be worth as a stud right now anyway?
They do not have to worry about faking an injury- between the pains in his butt, his long training up to the race, his baking at the gate, and lagging all the way around, enough said.
My consolation is that since he was bought for 16 mill, maybe they will make darn sure he is sound before racing him.

[Speed Figure]

Horses that cost that much will 99.9% of the time FAIL to live up to there cost.

[BIG RED]

only 1,537 races to go for TGM.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm not sure why everyone is falling all over themselves in this thread. How silly to judge based on a career debut. There are still many ways this story can turn out.

For the record, I didn't think his race was all that terrible for a debut. He actually hung in a bit better than I thought he would at the end.....

I just don't get why anyone places so much emphasis on the purchase price for this horse. Obviously, the price was insane, but remeber that purchase price more often than not gives little clue as to actual performance.

[nobeyerspls]

I'll be surprised if they run him again. How many times will Pletcher want to go through the media scrutiny like today.

I'm not an accountant but I remember that the depreciation tables are shorter for horses in training. Since 1986 this game is less of a tax shelter but $16 million cost basis should generate some serious deductions.
Let's say these folks have a racing stable valued at $50 million with net earnings of $3 million. That looks like a 6% return. With depreciation that return could be tax free. Can't get that in the municipal bond market.
Then too, the guy races all over the world and files tax returns in several countries under different rules. If there are any accountants on here perhaps they could shed light on his large investment net of tax.