My Christmas Gift

[jotb]

Hello Board:

I had spoke to Keilan about a month ago and informed him that I was to receive a Christmas Gift which was the book " Modern Pace Handicapping". I have quite a collection of handicapping books but not this one. Anyway, make a long story short, my wife on Christmas morning hands me my gift. The box was quite big and figured to myself the wife was playing tricks on me to surprise me. Low and behold, I unwrap the gift and it was not the book that I wanted. Instead my wife bought me a new computer. Believe it or not, I was disappointed! Most of you do not know me on a personal level but I'm the type of person that loves to give rather than receive. However, I can get quite selfish when it comes to handicapping literature or anything related to the industry. It goes to show you, how much I love horse racing when the wife gives me, as a gift a brand new computer and I rather have a $20 handicapping book. Things kind of worked out because the following day, I took a ride to the nearest book store and purchased a copy of "Modern Pace Handicapping" Boy am I a happy camper today!

Regards,
Joe

[Dick Schmidt]

Jotb,

I understand your disappointment. Modern Pace Handicapping is without any doubt the best book ever written on pace handicapping, maybe the best book ever written on handicapping period. Getting stuck with a lousy computer instead must have been a bummer.

Let me try to be of help. I'll trade you the second best book on pace handicapping for that miserable computer and even get it signed by the author. How can you pass up a deal like this???

Dick

P.S. Enjoy MPH. Not an easy read, but there is gold in the depths.

[Bob Harris]

A new computer!! Damn, I'll trade you wives!

[Zaf]

I really love that book. But I find to put Brohamer's theory into actual use requires too much work.

I have nothing but praise for Brohamers book.

ZAFONIC

[keilan]

Nice story Joe. You are a lucky man .Wish your wonderful wife a Joyous Holiday Season from me.

Chow

[jotb]

Hello Mr. Schmidt:

Funny you replied to this thread. I was thinking of you when I was reading the acknowledgments and noticed your name. I was wondering if you are indeed that same person who read the entire manuscript and offered valuable criticism on clarity and style.

By the way, on Christmas morning if someone would have made me that offer to trade the computer for MPH, more than likely, I would have done just that. I remember last Christmas when the wife handed me this ring with diamonds around it. She was so excited about this piece of jewelery and all I had to say was, what happended to the tape on the body language of horses?With that comment the only body language I received was the back of her hand.

That reminds me, when she gave me the computer and she saw that I was not a happy camper, she wanted to impress me by telling me that the computer is faster in terms of speed. Of course I had to reply with, is it faster than 108.4? She gave me this look and it did not look good so I gave her kiss and said thank you.

Best regards,
Joe

[jotb]

Hello Keilan:

Thanks for the warm reply. Hope you and the family had a wonderful holiday. My wife has been driving me crazy the last month getting ready for this holiday season. I have not had a chance to handicap seriously the last few weeks. I've been running around town running errands. She has been on vacation the last 2 weeks but will be returning to work Jan 2. You know what that means! I will be free spending the next week reading MPH, studying the pp's and watching the races. Christmas all over again! Send my regards to the family and all of you should have a happy and healthy upcoming New Year.....

Best regards,
Joe

[Doug]

Take my wife, Pleeeeeeeeez.

Doug

[superfecta]

Originally posted by Dick Schmidt
Jotb,

I understand your disappointment. Modern Pace Handicapping is without any doubt the best book ever written on pace handicapping, maybe the best book ever written on handicapping period. Getting stuck with a lousy computer instead must have been a bummer.

Let me try to be of help. I'll trade you the second best book on pace handicapping for that miserable computer and even get it signed by the author. How can you pass up a deal like this???

Dick

P.S. Enjoy MPH. Not an easy read, but there is gold in the depths. I think Pace Makes the Race is WAAAAAYYY better than Mod Pa Handicapping.Brohamer may know his stuff,but the book gets way too complicated in its calculations,and Ironically all the data is taken from an estimation of the track callers idea of where the horses are during the running of the race.Some charts are better than others,but hardly infallable.
Pace handicapping such as what D.S and M.P state in PMTR takes this into account,inasmuch they admit this is not an exact science but is methodical in its approach.Oh and it approaches the seldom mentioned Money Management.That in itself is as important as any handicapping method.
So it it gives me great thrill to tell Dick,you're wrong,Mod Pa Handicappin is not the Best book on pace out there.

[Tom]

Do you have the MPH software?
It is rally a good package.

[Amazin]

Jobt:

I would say that the odds are at least a 1,000,000-1 that most guys would be happier with a state of the art computer than a book written a decade ago.I don't know how long you've been in this game but the book is copywrited in 1991.First thing I did when I discovered horseracing was gobble every book on handicapping I could get.Couldn't get enough.Thought I was going to find a genie in one of those books.In retrospect ,what I got out of them was a nugget.Each book I read,taught me one important thing.The majority of the books was pleasant reading but nothing new.I can't say like Superfecta that Sartin's book is better than Brohamer's.The first time I applied each author's method I won with it.For some reason,it never lasts.But frustrated with no new ideas or books with originality I came to develop my own style and incorpaorate various author's ideas into it.So don't get too excited about that book.I'd be more excited about my wife's generosity if I was you.Best my wife did for Christmas was send me out for errands.

[keilan]

Amazin - - Jotb been around race rooms and horse's for most of his life. Maybe that's why he enjoys most anything horse related. But I'm sure he will consider your well intended advice.

I suspect your wife might appreciate the last line of your post.

[Amazin]

Kelian:

You don't know my wife.I think she's on Lasix .

[Dick Schmidt]

Goll-Lee, I'm blushing.

Jobt: ya that is indeed me Tom mentioned in the intro. I can't take any credit for the contents, that is pure Brohamer, but I did get him to vary his sentence structure once in a while and caught a couple of minor errors. It was fun to read along as Tom wrote it.

Superfecta: in truth, PMTR and TPR turned out far better than anyone expected. Certainly better than Tom Hambleton and I thought it would. We never really thought it would be as good as compounded velocity ratings, but it comes pretty close. Tom Brohamer presents a very high level handicapping program that requires a lot of work on the part of the user. He was writing at a time when playing more than one or two tracks at once was impossible outside of Las Vegas and it reflects his personality perfectly. Tom is a very careful fellow.

By the time PMTR came along, we were seeing the first glimpses of multiple track play, off track betting and simelcasting. Though we achieved our goal of producing a method that could be done with a pencil and a Racing Form, we soon were using computers, downloading data and playing 6 tracks a day. I still do so.

Amazin: when you say "For some reason, it never lasts." it is like saying "it worked on paper but fell apart at the track." Not to be contentious (I'm feeling kind of mellow tonight) but the methodology didn't change, the guy using it did. Both MPH and TPR are working as well as they ever did. Some of the prices are lower now than they used to be, but now you can pick and choose from 100 races a day. I made a living betting 4 or 5 races a day at one track. It all works out. Pace handicapping is too much work to ever become truly popular with the great unwashed. You just need to find something that you are comfortable with.

We are all on a search (or should be) for a handicapping tool that really suits us, just fits like a glove and is as comfortable as old sneakers. I was never completely at home with FPS numbers, and found it difficult to approach anything close to Brohamer's level. Once I found TPR, it was like coming home for Christmas. I didn't have to ask myself about the relationship between a 56.45 and a 55.90, I just looked at the numbers and knew.

We should all be on this search. Tom Brohamer and his numbers can outperform me (hell, Tom Brohamer and yesterday's program can outperform me and most everyone else). However, I do much better using my old comfortable TPR numbers than I do using Tom's precise velocity ratings. I used FPS ratings for about 8 years, made a living with them, but was never really comfortable. 20 minutes after I finished writing the first TPR program on a pocket computer, I knew I was home. The question is not which is better (Tom's numbers are certainly more precise) but which fits you better.

Once you find what you have been looking for, stop looking and enjoy your new found skills. It doesn't matter when the book was written, old ideas can be just as valid as new ones, maybe more so for having stood the test of time. You and a set of numbers you are comfortable with are going to outperform you and the most exact numbers on earth that you aren't sure about every time.

Been there, done that, found my answer.

Dick

[superfecta]

Originally posted by Dick Schmidt

Once you find what you have been looking for, stop looking and enjoy your new found skills. It doesn't matter when the book was written, old ideas can be just as valid as new ones, maybe more so for having stood the test of time. You and a set of numbers you are comfortable with are going to outperform you and the most exact numbers on earth that you aren't sure about every time.

Been there, done that, found my answer.

Dick Dick,don't ever write a book about this OK? I need the money.:)

[joeprunes]

Well said, and that advice sounds the same as my golf instucters.

[Amazin]

Dick
Just to clarify my staement"it never lasts"regarding Brohamer's book is that the "Honeymoon" has to end.For me everytime I tried a new method or system it worked so well that the small sample at that point makes the method look like the road to riches.But as you build a larger sample it's still profitable but not eye popping as before.Just like when two people fall in love,they're crazy over eachother(Honeymoon part).Then things change as everything in this uiverse does.Handicapping is no exception.But I do think Brohamer's book is excellent.

[Dick Schmidt]

Super,

"Don't ever write a book about this."

OOOPS, I think I already did. Oh well, almost no one actually does what we tell them to do. They just bet the top TPRs and wonder why they lose. That's the beauty of this; we can tell everyone about it and no one will do the work to make it a winning method.

A Happy and Prosperous New Year to One and All!!

Dick

[cato]

Dick: I liked your book and may even spring for the "updated" version, but I am curious--Your post indicatd that you are still using TPR. Is that correct? I thought you are using Horse Street and all the whiz-bang stuff that goes with it.

If you are still using TPR could you tell us a little more about how you have refined it, the nuances, stc...you know all the secret stuff that's not in the book :)

Take care and Happy New Year!

Cato

[Dick Schmidt]

Cato,

"Dick: I liked your book and may even spring for the "updated" version, but I am curious--Your post indicated that you are still using TPR. Is that correct? I thought you are using Horse Street and all the whiz-bang stuff that goes with it."


I play on different levels. When I really gear up and want to do some serious betting, I stay mostly with HSH, though I will take a look at TPR once in a while. I find that HSH really required me to have my "head in the game" and that it does not reward a more casual attitude. On days when I know I'll be doing other things and handicapping catch as catch can, I turn back to TPR. I also cut my bets a lot. HSH is by far the most demanding racing program out there, but when I'm firing $8 or 10 grand at 75 or 80 races a day, it is the only one I'll trust. It is also (once you understand it) very fast to use, so I can keep up on those full racing days in the Summer.


"If you are still using TPR could you tell us a little more about how you have refined it, the nuances, stc...you know all the secret stuff that's not in the book."


Well, you know about the "Instant Winner" technique, right? Push the button, win 85%? Yeah, me either. Actually, I do have a secret weapon; it's called Synergism. Though TPR has shown up in a number of programs, Bob Purdy was the only one who ever asked to use it. The rest just did it. I must say that Bob has done by far the best job. He has refined the adjustment process in Synergism to the point that TPR is now a really accurate reflection of how the horse ran. I use TPR to both pick pacelines (patterns are really easy to see) and to make my bets. Synergism has lots more cool features and numbers, but TPR is what I use. It also keeps a track profile and model for you. Since I'm lazy, that is a good thing.

I can still do TPRs by hand or with a pocket computer, but I like downloading much better. If you are a serious player at all, you need to use the HDW downloads, the only data source that is worth a damn. The others cost you as much as they make you. As for secret stuff not in the book, the real secret is that we put all our stuff in the book, figuring that no one would actually take the trouble to use it. To date, we have been proved correct. Just to prove to myself that it could still be done, I played the Hollywood meet that just closed using TPR (in Synergism) and finished up the meet with a 29% ROI.

Dick