Beyers

[wegoosewe]

Hi i am new to the sport of handicapping question tho. On the beyers speed figs those are affected by distance changes right. And also the drf speed ratings and the track variant is there a way to calculate the overall speed in the last few races to try to find out the fast fastest horse. Basically i am trying to find if there is a relationship between speed rating and the beyers

[kenwoodallpromos]

For now I will just say Beyer's or any other speed figure or rating have their own method of computation; but remember almost all including Beyer's measure only the final time/lengths behind, not HOW the horse got to the wire. Not pace, fractions, trouble, bad jockey moves, being wide, gate trouble for instance.
Two horses in the same race can finish at the same time, but one may be much more exhaused than the other due to track or physical condition.
Charismatic finished 3rd in the Belmont but sustained a career-ending injury.
A horse can have great figures the last few races and have peaked last race. So be careful not to ignore all the other factors.
Whether pure front or races speed or many other factors, sometimes there is a factor (angle) that just outweighs all others. And racing is designed to try to balance the race for all horses, so the race conditions set by the racing secretary or the track itself may advantage certain "lesser" horses (note Lava Man's last race; he never did well away from Ca's fast tracks, now lost on a Ca Polytrack).

[DeanT]

It seems everyone, me included, in most races use figures to make your contender list. I think we are dependent on them in our capping. Some might say a slave to them. I don't think I am as much as most, as I am an angle type player. Maybe growing up in harness makes me not look at final time as much as some other factors, since time is harness is pretty inconsequential oft times.

Anyhow I have a question: What if the DRF past performances did not include final times/any figures. They had the first call/second call, record, trainer record, class of last races, finish all the rest...... but no final time.

What would you weight most heavily to try and make a smart betting choice? Would you still find yourself trying to guess a final time based on class and splits and still running/estimating figures? Or do you think you would be able to make a confident choice looking at other handicapping factors?

I am of the belief that without figures or speed handicapping the odds board for a race would look exactly as it does with them, because I think the crowd is pretty sharp handicapping class/whatever. I wonder if people agree.

[bigchump]

Hi i am new to the sport of handicapping question tho. On the beyers speed figs those are affected by distance changes right. And also the drf speed ratings and the track variant is there a way to calculate the overall speed in the last few races to try to find out the fast fastest horse. Basically i am trying to find if there is a relationship between speed rating and the beyers

The DRF speed ratings and the Beyer numbers have a couple of things in common:
1) The inventors got rich quick.
2) They attempt to equalize running times at various tracks.

The running times at certain tracks are consistantly faster than others, for a lot of reasons. I don't know who invented the DRF ratings, but I've heard it was around 1910, and a real stroke of genius. They are based on a percentage of the track record for a given distance. A horse that gets a 90 rating ran at 90% of the track record for that distance. A rating of 101 means that this horse actually broke the track record. The track variant shows how the horses ran on the day the DRF rating was taken. The higher the variant, the slower the running times that day were. There can be *many reasons* for this, other than a wet track or bad weather. The variant was added in an attempt to compete with the Beyer numbers, which it doesn't.

The Beyer numbers took all this to a much higher level, which I'll leave for others to explain.

I quit using the "Racing Form" in 1986, and never used the Beyer numbers, however I read Andy Beyer's book "Beyer on Speed" in the late 70's and learned a few things from it.

There's a saying, "pace makes the race"....

good luck
bigchump

[Greyfox]

They are based on a percentage of the track record for a given distance. A horse that gets a 90 rating ran at 90% of the track record for that distance.
good luck
bigchump

Huh? I think that your info is outdated.
At one time the DRF speed rating was based on the track record.
I think Today it is based on the best time in the last 3 years.
Secondly, a horse getting 90 is not running at 90 % of the track record.
A 90 is simply 2 seconds (10 x 1/5) slower than the last 3 year time.

[bigchump]

Huh? I think that your info is outdated.


Sorry for the mis-information. I haven't used the form in years.
I stand corrected.

good luck
bigchump

[Tom]

However, top-of-the-line avatar and cool handle!:ThmbUp:
Welcome to the board.

[Cratos]

Hi i am new to the sport of handicapping question tho. On the beyers speed figs those are affected by distance changes right. And also the drf speed ratings and the track variant is there a way to calculate the overall speed in the last few races to try to find out the fast fastest horse. Basically i am trying to find if there is a relationship between speed rating and the beyers


The answer to your question: “if there is a relationship between speed rating and the beyers” is a qualified yes. The common relationship is speed. The DRF speed rating use to compare final times against the track record. However, several years ago they changed their methodology to be comparison against the best times for the meet over the previous three years.

The Beyers added a twist by comparing final times to class segments with pars adjusted by variants. This was an attempt to better determine ability and class by final time.

Both methods have their pluses and minuses, but you the player must find the right method for you

[bobphilo]

Anyhow I have a question: What if the DRF past performances did not include final times/any figures. They had the first call/second call, record, trainer record, class of last races, finish all the rest...... but no final time.

What would you weight most heavily to try and make a smart betting choice? Would you still find yourself trying to guess a final time based on class and splits and still running/estimating figures? Or do you think you would be able to make a confident choice looking at other handicapping factors?


Lacking speed figures or final times, I would depend mainly on class-form. I would count heavily how well a horse could be expected to perform against todays level of competition at about todays distance. Even with speed figures availalable, I often use class-form evaluation to find contenders.

I consider pace to be an important factor, but fractional splits are only relevant in relation to final time and track speed, so without final time and a variant and/or speed figures, they would be of little use.

That is actually the situation one faces when handicapping European races where raw times are not very important and there are no fractional splits. In foreign races, I depend on Timeform or Racingpost performance ratings which are really an assessment of class-form, as I described earlier.

Bob

[jackman]

I am new to the forum also and a long time handicapper.I own harness horse,but don't race them anymore.I bet the TB now not harness.
jackman

[garyoz]

Basically i am trying to find if there is a relationship between speed rating and the beyers

Beyer's are not mechnical. They do tweaking after the race. Similar to the projection method used by the high end figure makers.